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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(32): e2112656119, 2022 08 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35921436

RESUMO

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards have emerged as useful tools to monitor its evolution, inform the public, and assist governments in decision-making. Here, we present a globally applicable method, integrated in a daily updated dashboard that provides an estimate of the trend in the evolution of the number of cases and deaths from reported data of more than 200 countries and territories, as well as 7-d forecasts. One of the significant difficulties in managing a quickly propagating epidemic is that the details of the dynamic needed to forecast its evolution are obscured by the delays in the identification of cases and deaths and by irregular reporting. Our forecasting methodology substantially relies on estimating the underlying trend in the observed time series using robust seasonal trend decomposition techniques. This allows us to obtain forecasts with simple yet effective extrapolation methods in linear or log scale. We present the results of an assessment of our forecasting methodology and discuss its application to the production of global and regional risk maps.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Pandemias , COVID-19/mortalidade , Previsões , Humanos , Fatores de Tempo
2.
Rev Med Suisse ; 20(859): 230-234, 2024 Jan 31.
Artigo em Francês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38299952

RESUMO

Consensus, defined as the position on which most scientists specialized in a given field agree at a given time, is a key aspect in increasing the readability, credibility and, ultimately, the use of scientific knowledge in public (evidence-based health policy). This article presents several methods aiming at developing scientific consensus between experts, such as the conventional or rapid Delphi approach, the nominal group technique, the RAND-UCLA appropriateness method and the consensus development conference. These methods are used to synthesize expert judgements when uncertainties persist in the literature - each with its own specificities in terms of duration, number of steps and expert participants enlisted, as well as the ways in which they are involved.


Le consensus, défini comme la position sur laquelle la plupart des scientifiques spécialistes d'un domaine se mettent d'accord à un moment donné, est un aspect-clé pour augmenter la lisibilité, la crédibilité et in fine l'utilisation des savoirs scientifiques dans les politiques publiques (evidence-based health policy). Cet article présente plusieurs méthodes permettant le développement de consensus entre personnes expertes, telles que l'approche Delphi conventionnelle ou rapide, la technique du groupe nominal, la méthode d'adéquation RAND-UCLA et la conférence de consensus. Ces méthodes permettent la synthèse des jugements experts lorsque des incertitudes persistent dans la littérature ­ chacune avec des spécificités en termes de durée, du nombre d'étapes et de personnes expertes sollicitées, ainsi que des modalités de leur implication.


Assuntos
Política de Saúde , Política Pública , Humanos , Consenso , Julgamento , Conhecimento
3.
BMC Infect Dis ; 23(1): 294, 2023 May 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37147570

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: An unprecedent increase in the number of cases and deaths reported from dengue virus (DENV) infection has occurred in the southwestern Indian ocean in recent years. From 2017 to mid-2021 more than 70,000 confirmed dengue cases were reported in Reunion Island, and 1967 cases were recorded in the Seychelles from 2015 to 2016. Both these outbreaks displayed similar trends, with the initial circulation of DENV-2 which was replaced by DENV-1. Here, we aim to determine the origin of the DENV-1 epidemic strains and to explore their genetic characteristics along the uninterrupted circulation, particularly in Reunion. METHODS: Nucleic acids were extracted from blood samples collected from dengue positive patients; DENV-1 was identified by RT-qPCR. Positive samples were used to infect VERO cells. Genome sequences were obtained from either blood samples or infected-cell supernatants through a combination of both Illumina or MinION technologies. RESULTS: Phylogenetic analyses of partial or whole genome sequences revealed that all DENV-1 sequences from Reunion formed a monophyletic cluster that belonged to genotype I and were closely related to one isolate from Sri Lanka (OL752439.1, 2020). Sequences from the Seychelles belonged to the same major phylogenetic branch of genotype V, but fell into two paraphyletic clusters, with greatest similarity for one cluster to 2016-2017 isolate from Bangladesh, Singapore and China, and for the other cluster to ancestral isolates from Singapore, dating back to 2012. Compared to publicly available DENV-1 genotype I sequences, fifteen non-synonymous mutations were identified in the Reunion strains, including one in the capsid and the others in nonstructural proteins (NS) (three in NS1, two in NS2B, one in NS3, one in NS4B, and seven in NS5). CONCLUSION: In contrast to what was seen in previous outbreaks, recent DENV-1 outbreaks in Reunion and the Seychelles were caused by distinct genotypes, all likely originating from Asia where dengue is (hyper)endemic in many countries. Epidemic DENV-1 strains from Reunion harbored specific non-synonymous mutations whose biological significance needs to be further investigated.


Assuntos
Vírus da Dengue , Dengue , Animais , Chlorocebus aethiops , Humanos , Dengue/epidemiologia , Sorogrupo , Reunião/epidemiologia , Filogenia , Seicheles , Células Vero , Surtos de Doenças , Genótipo , Sri Lanka
4.
Rev Med Suisse ; 19(836): 1390-1393, 2023 Jul 26.
Artigo em Francês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37493113

RESUMO

Since December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on global health and the economy. Epidemiological forecasts are crucial for governmental decisions, healthcare officials, and the general public. A collaboration between the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva and the Swiss Data Science Center created an interactive dashboard providing forecasts for over 200 countries and territories. This dashboard has been a valuable tool for the public and authorities alike. The pandemic has highlighted the importance of international collaborations and a robust national surveillance system. Data collection systems, pathogen-agnostic models, and communication tools need to be consolidated and maintained in operation.


Depuis décembre 2019, la pandémie de Covid-19 a eu un impact majeur sur la santé et l'économie mondiales. Les prévisions épidémiques sont essentielles pour les décisions gouvernementales, les responsables de la santé et le public. Un projet entre l'Institut de santé globale de l'Université de Genève et le Swiss Data Science Center a créé un tableau de bord interactif fournissant des prévisions pour plus de 200 pays et territoires, qui fut un outil précieux pour le public et les autorités. La pandémie a souligné l'importance des collaborations internationales et d'un système de surveillance national solide. Les systèmes de collecte de données, les modèles agnostiques aux pathogènes et les outils de communication doivent être consolidés et maintenus en fonctionnement.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Previsões
5.
Scand J Public Health ; 50(1): 124-135, 2022 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34664529

RESUMO

Aims: To assess SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence over the first epidemic wave in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, as well as risk factors for infection and symptoms associated with IgG seropositivity. Methods: Between April and June 2020, former participants of a representative survey of the 20-74-year-old population of canton Geneva were invited to participate in the study, along with household members aged over 5 years. Blood samples were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G. Questionnaires were self-administered. We estimated seroprevalence with a Bayesian model accounting for test performance and sampling design. Results: We included 8344 participants, with an overall adjusted seroprevalence of 7.8% (95% credible interval 6.8-8.9). Seroprevalence was highest among 18-49 year-olds (9.5%), and lowest in 5-9-year-old children (4.3%) and individuals >65 years (4.7-5.4%). Odds of seropositivity were significantly reduced for female retirees and unemployed men compared to employed individuals, and smokers compared to non-smokers. We found no significant association between occupation, level of education, neighborhood income and the risk of being seropositive. The symptom most strongly associated with seropositivity was anosmia/dysgeusia. Conclusions: Anti-SARS-CoV-2 population seroprevalence remained low after the first wave in Geneva. Socioeconomic factors were not associated with seropositivity in this sample. The elderly, young children and smokers were less frequently seropositive, although it is not clear how biology and behaviours shape these differences.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto , Idoso , Teorema de Bayes , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Imunoglobulina G , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores de Risco , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , Suíça/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
6.
Rev Med Suisse ; 18(790): 1386-1389, 2022 Jul 13.
Artigo em Francês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35822747

RESUMO

The "One Health" approach is essential to better understand and manage a pandemic of animal origin. Sensitive geopolitical considerations seem to hamper the investigations into the origin of the pandemic, but everything points to the Rhinolophus bat as the starting point of this devastating pandemic. Through a phenomenon of reverse zoonosis, several hundred cases of contamination of animals by SARS-CoV-2 have been identified worldwide, involving about twenty species of mammals. The virus has also passed from animals to humans in the case of infected mink farms in Denmark or through contact with hamsters in Hong Kong. For the development of vaccines and treatments and to help detect COVID-19 in train stations or airports, the animal has confirmed its role as a valuable auxiliary resource for humans in the fight against the pandemic.


L'approche « une seule santé ¼ est indispensable pour mieux comprendre et gérer une pandémie d'origine animale. La recherche de l'origine de la pandémie semble ralentie par des considérations géopolitiques sensibles, mais tout indique que la chauve-souris rhinolophe est au point de départ de cette pandémie dévastatrice. Par un phénomène de zoonose inverse, des centaines de cas de contamination d'animaux par le SARS-CoV-2 ont été identifiés dans le monde, impliquant une vingtaine d'espèces de mammifères. Le virus est aussi passé de l'animal vers l'homme dans le cas d'élevages de visons infectés au Danemark ou au contact de hamsters à Hong Kong. Pour le développement de vaccins et de traitements ainsi que pour aider au dépistage du Covid-19 dans les gares ou aéroports, l'animal est une ressource auxiliaire précieuse dans la lutte contre la pandémie.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Quirópteros , Animais , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2 , Zoonoses/epidemiologia
7.
Rev Med Suisse ; 18(790): 1391-1394, 2022 Jul 13.
Artigo em Francês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35822748

RESUMO

Environmental degradation, including climate change, is causing increasing threats to human health. To address these issues, health professionals, including future physicians, need to be educated in planetary health and sustainable healthcare. This article discusses possible content for pre-graduate education in planetary health and methods of implementation in the curriculum. It outlines several projects carried out in medical universities in Switzerland and underlines the effectiveness of students-led initiatives supported by faculties.


Les dégradations environnementales, dont les changements climatiques, font peser sur la santé humaine des menaces grandissantes. Pour répondre à ces enjeux, les professionnel-le-s de la santé, notamment les futur-e-s médecins, doivent être formé-e-s sur les approches de santé planétaire et de durabilité des soins. Cet article aborde les différents contenus à l'enseignement prégradué en santé planétaire et les méthodes d'implémentation dans le curriculum. Il présente plusieurs projets mis en place dans les facultés de médecine en Suisse et souligne l'efficacité des initiatives menées par les étudiant-e-s avec le soutien des institutions.


Assuntos
Currículo , Pessoal de Saúde , Mudança Climática , Humanos , Suíça , Universidades
8.
Lancet ; 396(10247): 313-319, 2020 08 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32534626

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Assessing the burden of COVID-19 on the basis of medically attended case numbers is suboptimal given its reliance on testing strategy, changing case definitions, and disease presentation. Population-based serosurveys measuring anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (anti-SARS-CoV-2) antibodies provide one method for estimating infection rates and monitoring the progression of the epidemic. Here, we estimate weekly seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the population of Geneva, Switzerland, during the epidemic. METHODS: The SEROCoV-POP study is a population-based study of former participants of the Bus Santé study and their household members. We planned a series of 12 consecutive weekly serosurveys among randomly selected participants from a previous population-representative survey, and their household members aged 5 years and older. We tested each participant for anti-SARS-CoV-2-IgG antibodies using a commercially available ELISA. We estimated seroprevalence using a Bayesian logistic regression model taking into account test performance and adjusting for the age and sex of Geneva's population. Here we present results from the first 5 weeks of the study. FINDINGS: Between April 6 and May 9, 2020, we enrolled 2766 participants from 1339 households, with a demographic distribution similar to that of the canton of Geneva. In the first week, we estimated a seroprevalence of 4·8% (95% CI 2·4-8·0, n=341). The estimate increased to 8·5% (5·9-11·4, n=469) in the second week, to 10·9% (7·9-14·4, n=577) in the third week, 6·6% (4·3-9·4, n=604) in the fourth week, and 10·8% (8·2-13·9, n=775) in the fifth week. Individuals aged 5-9 years (relative risk [RR] 0·32 [95% CI 0·11-0·63]) and those older than 65 years (RR 0·50 [0·28-0·78]) had a significantly lower risk of being seropositive than those aged 20-49 years. After accounting for the time to seroconversion, we estimated that for every reported confirmed case, there were 11·6 infections in the community. INTERPRETATION: These results suggest that most of the population of Geneva remained uninfected during this wave of the pandemic, despite the high prevalence of COVID-19 in the region (5000 reported clinical cases over <2·5 months in the population of half a million people). Assuming that the presence of IgG antibodies is associated with immunity, these results highlight that the epidemic is far from coming to an end by means of fewer susceptible people in the population. Further, a significantly lower seroprevalence was observed for children aged 5-9 years and adults older than 65 years, compared with those aged 10-64 years. These results will inform countries considering the easing of restrictions aimed at curbing transmission. FUNDING: Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, Swiss School of Public Health (Corona Immunitas research program), Fondation de Bienfaisance du Groupe Pictet, Fondation Ancrage, Fondation Privée des Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève, and Center for Emerging Viral Diseases.


Assuntos
Anticorpos Antivirais/sangue , Betacoronavirus/imunologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Imunoglobulina G/sangue , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , COVID-19 , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , Distribuição por Sexo , Suíça/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
9.
Epidemiol Infect ; 149: e263, 2021 11 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34732270

RESUMO

The World Health Organization African region recorded its first laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) cases on 25 February 2020. Two months later, all the 47 countries of the region were affected. The first anniversary of the pandemic occurred in a changed context with the emergence of new variants of concern (VOC) and growing COVID-19 fatigue. This study describes the epidemiological trajectory of COVID-19 in the region, summarises public health and social measures (PHSM) implemented and discusses their impact on the pandemic trajectory. As of 24 February 2021, the African region accounted for 2.5% of cases and 2.9% of deaths reported globally. Of the 13 countries that submitted detailed line listing of cases, the proportion of cases with at least one co-morbid condition was estimated at 3.3% of all cases. Hypertension, diabetes and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection were the most common comorbid conditions, accounting for 11.1%, 7.1% and 5.0% of cases with comorbidities, respectively. Overall, the case fatality ratio (CFR) in patients with comorbid conditions was higher than in patients without comorbid conditions: 5.5% vs. 1.0% (P < 0.0001). Countries started to implement lockdown measures in early March 2020. This contributed to slow the spread of the pandemic at the early stage while the gradual ease of lockdowns from 20 April 2020 resulted in an upsurge. The second wave of the pandemic, which started in November 2020, coincided with the emergence of the new variants of concern. Only 0.08% of the population from six countries received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. It is critical to not only learn from the past 12 months to improve the effectiveness of the current response but also to start preparing the health systems for subsequent waves of the current pandemic and future pandemics.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/mortalidade , SARS-CoV-2 , Organização Mundial da Saúde/organização & administração , África/epidemiologia , Comorbidade , Humanos , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de Tempo
10.
Epidemiol Infect ; 149: e264, 2021 11 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34732273

RESUMO

As of 03 January 2021, the WHO African region is the least affected by the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, accounting for only 2.4% of cases and deaths reported globally. However, concerns abound about whether the number of cases and deaths reported from the region reflect the true burden of the disease and how the monitoring of the pandemic trajectory can inform response measures.We retrospectively estimated four key epidemiological parameters (the total number of cases, the number of missed cases, the detection rate and the cumulative incidence) using the COVID-19 prevalence calculator tool developed by Resolve to Save Lives. We used cumulative cases and deaths reported during the period 25 February to 31 December 2020 for each WHO Member State in the region as well as population data to estimate the four parameters of interest. The estimated number of confirmed cases in 42 countries out of 47 of the WHO African region included in this study was 13 947 631 [95% confidence interval (CI): 13 334 620-14 635 502] against 1 889 512 cases reported, representing 13.5% of overall detection rate (range: 4.2% in Chad, 43.9% in Guinea). The cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was estimated at 1.38% (95% CI: 1.31%-1.44%), with South Africa the highest [14.5% (95% CI: 13.9%-15.2%)] and Mauritius [0.1% (95% CI: 0.099%-0.11%)] the lowest. The low detection rate found in most countries of the WHO African region suggests the need to strengthen SARS-CoV-2 testing capacities and adjusting testing strategies.


Assuntos
COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Organização Mundial da Saúde/organização & administração , África/epidemiologia , Idoso , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/virologia , Humanos , Incidência , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Tempo
11.
Epidemiol Infect ; 149: e259, 2021 05 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33966683

RESUMO

Successive waves of COVID-19 transmission have led to exponential increases in new infections globally. In this study, we have applied a decision-making tool to assess the risk of continuing transmission to inform decisions on tailored public health and social measures (PHSM) using data on cases and deaths reported by Member States to the WHO Regional Office for Africa as of 31 December 2020. Transmission classification and health system capacity were used to assess the risk level of each country to guide implementation and adjustments to PHSM. Two countries out of 46 assessed met the criteria for sporadic transmission, one for clusters of cases, and 43 (93.5%) for community transmission (CT) including three with uncontrolled disease incidence (Eswatini, Namibia and South Africa). Health system response's capacities were assessed as adequate in two countries (4.3%), moderate in 13 countries (28.3%) and limited in 31 countries (64.4%). The risk level, calculated as a combination of transmission classification and health system response's capacities, was assessed at level 0 in one country (2.1%), level 1 in two countries (4.3%), level 2 in 11 countries (23.9%) and level 3 in 32 (69.6%) countries. The scale of severity ranged from 0 to 4, with 0 the lowest. CT coupled with limited response capacity resulted in a level 3 risk assessment in most countries. Countries at level 3 should be considered as priority focus for additional assistance, in order to prevent the risk rising to level 4, which may necessitate enforcing hard and costly lockdown measures. The large number of countries at level 3 indicates the need for an effective risk management system to be used as a basis for adjusting PHSM at national and sub-national levels.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Tomada de Decisões , SARS-CoV-2 , Organização Mundial da Saúde , África/epidemiologia , Atenção à Saúde , Humanos , Administração em Saúde Pública , Medição de Risco
12.
Epidemiol Infect ; 149: e98, 2021 04 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33849676

RESUMO

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is an essential component of public health emergency response. In the WHO African region (WHO AFRO), over 100 events are detected and responded to annually. Here we discuss the development of the M&E for COVID-19 that established a set of regional and country indicators for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic and response measures. An interdisciplinary task force used the 11 pillars of strategic preparedness and response to define a set of inputs, outputs, outcomes and impact indicators that were used to closely monitor and evaluate progress in the evolving COVID-19 response, with each pillar tailored to specific country needs. M&E data were submitted electronically and informed country profiles, detailed epidemiological reports, and situation reports. Further, 10 selected key performance indicators were tracked to monitor country progress through a bi-weekly progress scoring tool used to identify priority countries in need of additional support from WHO AFRO. Investment in M&E of health emergencies should be an integral part of efforts to strengthen national, regional and global capacities for early detection and response to threats to public health security. The development of an adaptable M&E framework for health emergencies must draw from the lessons learned throughout the COVID-19 response.


Assuntos
COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Organização Mundial da Saúde/organização & administração , África/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Emergências , Humanos , Vigilância em Saúde Pública , Regionalização da Saúde , SARS-CoV-2
13.
Epidemiol Infect ; 149: e258, 2021 09 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34493348

RESUMO

Experience gained from responding to major outbreaks may have influenced the early coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic response in several countries across Africa. We retrospectively assessed whether Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the three West African countries at the epicentre of the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease outbreak, leveraged the lessons learned in responding to COVID-19 following the World Health Organization's (WHO) declaration of a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). We found relatively lower incidence rates across the three countries compared to many parts of the globe. Time to case reporting and laboratory confirmation also varied, with Guinea and Liberia reporting significant delays compared to Sierra Leone. Most of the selected readiness measures were instituted before confirmation of the first case and response measures were initiated rapidly after the outbreak confirmation. We conclude that the rapid readiness and response measures instituted by the three countries can be attributed to their lessons learned from the devastating Ebola outbreak, although persistent health systems weaknesses and the unique nature of COVID-19 continue to challenge control efforts.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Ebolavirus , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/epidemiologia , África Ocidental/epidemiologia , Atenção à Saúde , Humanos , Incidência , SARS-CoV-2 , Fatores de Tempo
14.
Epidemiol Infect ; 149: e261, 2021 05 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33985609

RESUMO

Epidemic intelligence activities are undertaken by the WHO Regional Office for Africa to support member states in early detection and response to outbreaks to prevent the international spread of diseases. We reviewed epidemic intelligence activities conducted by the organisation from 2017 to 2020, processes used, key results and how lessons learned can be used to strengthen preparedness, early detection and rapid response to outbreaks that may constitute a public health event of international concern. A total of 415 outbreaks were detected and notified to WHO, using both indicator-based and event-based surveillance. Media monitoring contributed to the initial detection of a quarter of all events reported. The most frequent outbreaks detected were vaccine-preventable diseases, followed by food-and-water-borne diseases, vector-borne diseases and viral haemorrhagic fevers. Rapid risk assessments generated evidence and provided the basis for WHO to trigger operational processes to provide rapid support to member states to respond to outbreaks with a potential for international spread. This is crucial in assisting member states in their obligations under the International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005). Member states in the region require scaled-up support, particularly in preventing recurrent outbreaks of infectious diseases and enhancing their event-based surveillance capacities with automated tools and processes.


Assuntos
Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Vigilância em Saúde Pública/métodos , Organização Mundial da Saúde/organização & administração , África/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Global , Humanos , Medição de Risco
15.
Rev Med Suisse ; 17(730): 524-528, 2021 Mar 17.
Artigo em Francês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33755361

RESUMO

A consortium of Swiss universities has set up a dashboard providing daily 7-day epidemic forecasting for 209 countries and territories around the world. Relayed on social networks, international media, and the sites of major public health agencies, these forecasts can help guiding public policy. However, the time horizon of these forecasts is limited and their accuracy is sometimes questionable, even at 7 days. Interdisciplinary research aimed at increasing the complexity of mathematical models can improve the accuracy of the forecasts provided.


Un consortium émanant de hautes écoles suisses a mis en place un tableau de bord fournissant quotidiennement des prévisions épidémiologiques à 7 jours pour 209 pays et territoires dans le monde. Relayées sur les réseaux sociaux, les médias internationaux et les sites des grandes agences de sécurité sanitaire, ces prévisions peuvent aider au guidage des politiques publiques. Cependant l'horizon de temps de ces prévisions est limité et leur précision parfois questionnable, même à 7 jours. Des pistes sont proposées à travers une recherche interdisciplinaire visant à complexifier les modèles mathématiques pour améliorer la précision des prévisions fournies.


Assuntos
Epidemias , Previsões , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Suíça/epidemiologia , Tempo
16.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 26(11): 2555-2564, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33079032

RESUMO

Large-scale protracted outbreaks can be prevented through early detection, notification, and rapid control. We assessed trends in timeliness of detecting and responding to outbreaks in the African Region reported to the World Health Organization during 2017-2019. We computed the median time to each outbreak milestone and assessed the rates of change over time using univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. We selected 296 outbreaks from 348 public reported health events and evaluated 184 for time to detection, 232 for time to notification, and 201 for time to end. Time to detection and end decreased over time, whereas time to notification increased. Multiple factors can account for these findings, including scaling up support to member states after the World Health Organization established its Health Emergencies Programme and support given to countries from donors and partners to strengthen their core capacities for meeting International Health Regulations.


Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Saúde Pública , África/epidemiologia , Saúde Global , Humanos , Vigilância da População , Fatores de Tempo , Organização Mundial da Saúde
17.
J Med Internet Res ; 22(2): e15727, 2020 02 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32053111

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent, with around 1.5 million deaths reported in 2018, and is a major contributor to suffering worldwide, with an estimated 10 million new cases every year. In the context of the World Health Organization's End TB strategy and the quest for digital innovations, there is a need to understand what is happening around the world regarding research into the use of digital technology for better TB care and control. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this scoping review was to summarize the state of research on the use of digital technology to enhance TB care and control. This study provides an overview of publications covering this subject and answers 3 main questions: (1) to what extent has the issue been addressed in the scientific literature between January 2016 and March 2019, (2) which countries have been investing in research in this field, and (3) what digital technologies were used? METHODS: A Web-based search was conducted on PubMed and Web of Science. Studies that describe the use of digital technology with specific reference to keywords such as TB, digital health, eHealth, and mHealth were included. Data from selected studies were synthesized into 4 functions using narrative and graphical methods. Such digital health interventions were categorized based on 2 classifications, one by function and the other by targeted user. RESULTS: A total of 145 relevant studies were identified out of the 1005 published between January 2016 and March 2019. Overall, 72.4% (105/145) of the research focused on patient care and 20.7% (30/145) on surveillance and monitoring. Other programmatic functions 4.8% (7/145) and electronic learning 2.1% (3/145) were less frequently studied. Most digital health technologies used for patient care included primarily diagnostic 59.4% (63/106) and treatment adherence tools 40.6% (43/106). On the basis of the second type of classification, 107 studies targeted health care providers (107/145, 73.8%), 20 studies targeted clients (20/145, 13.8%), 17 dealt with data services (17/145, 11.7%), and 1 study was on the health system or resource management. The first authors' affiliations were mainly from 3 countries: the United States (30/145 studies, 20.7%), China (20/145 studies, 13.8%), and India (17/145 studies, 11.7%). The researchers from the United States conducted their research both domestically and abroad, whereas researchers from China and India conducted all studies domestically. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of research conducted between January 2016 and March 2019 on digital interventions for TB focused on diagnostic tools and treatment adherence technologies, such as video-observed therapy and SMS. Only a few studies addressed interventions for data services and health system or resource management.


Assuntos
Telemedicina/métodos , Tuberculose/terapia , Humanos
20.
J Med Internet Res ; 21(5): e12273, 2019 05 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31124466

RESUMO

Advances in information technology are changing public health at an unprecedented rate. Participatory surveillance systems are contributing to public health by actively engaging digital (eg, Web-based) communities of volunteer citizens to report symptoms and other pertinent information on public health threats and also by empowering individuals to promptly respond to them. However, this digital model raises ethical issues on top of those inherent in traditional forms of public health surveillance. Research ethics are undergoing significant changes in the digital era where not only participants' physical and psychological well-being but also the protection of their sensitive data have to be considered. In this paper, the digital platform of Influenzanet is used as a case study to illustrate those ethical challenges posed to participatory surveillance systems using digital platforms and mobile apps. These ethical challenges include the implementation of electronic consent, the protection of participants' privacy, the promotion of justice, and the need for interdisciplinary capacity building of research ethics committees. On the basis of our analysis, we propose a framework to regulate and strengthen ethical approaches in the field of digital public health surveillance.


Assuntos
Ética em Pesquisa , Vigilância em Saúde Pública/métodos , Humanos
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