Prediction of near-term climate change impacts on UK wheat quality and the potential for adaptation through plant breeding.

Wheat is a major crop worldwide, mainly cultivated for human consumption and animal feed. Grain quality is paramount in determining its value and downstream use. While we know that climate change threatens global crop yields, a better understanding of impacts on wheat end-use quality is also critical. Combining quantitative genetics with climate model outputs, we investigated UK-wide trends in genotypic adaptation for wheat quality traits. In our approach, we augmented genomic prediction models with environmental characterisation of field trials to predict trait values and climate effects in historical field trial data between 2001 and 2020. Addition of environmental covariates, such as temperature and rainfall, successfully enabled prediction of genotype by environment interactions (G × E), and increased prediction accuracy of most traits for new genotypes in new year cross validation. We then extended predictions from these models to much larger numbers of simulated environments using climate scenarios projected under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 for 2050-2069. We found geographically varying climate change impacts on wheat quality due to contrasting associations between specific weather covariables and quality traits across the UK. Notably, negative impacts on quality traits were predicted in the East of the UK due to increased summer temperatures while the climate in the North and South-west may become more favourable with increased summer temperatures. Furthermore, by projecting 167,040 simulated future genotype-environment combinations, we found only limited potential for breeding to exploit predictable G × E to mitigate year-to-year environmental variability for most traits except Hagberg falling number. This suggests low adaptability of current UK wheat germplasm across future UK climates. More generally, approaches demonstrated here will be critical to enable adaptation of global crops to near-term climate change.

Trade-offs in the genetic control of functional and nutritional quality traits in UK winter wheat.

A complex network of trade-offs exists between wheat quality and nutritional traits. We investigated the correlated relationships among several milling and baking traits as well as mineral density in refined white and whole grain flour. Our aim was to determine their pleiotropic genetic control in a multi-parent population over two trial years with direct application to practical breeding. Co-location of major quantitative trait loci (QTL) and principal component based multi-trait QTL mapping increased the power to detect QTL and revealed pleiotropic effects explaining many complementary and antagonistic trait relationships. High molecular weight glutenin subunit genes explained much of the heritable variation in important dough rheology traits, although additional QTL were detected. Several QTL, including one linked to the TaGW2 gene, controlled grain size and increased flour extraction rate. The semi-dwarf Rht-D1b allele had a positive effect on Hagberg falling number, but reduced grain size, specific weight, grain protein content and flour water absorption. Mineral nutrient concentrations were lower in Rht-D1b lines for many elements, in wholemeal and white flour, but potassium concentration was higher in Rht-D1b lines. The presence of awns increased calcium content without decreasing extraction rate, despite the negative correlation between these traits. QTL were also found that affect the relative concentrations of key mineral nutrients compared to phosphorus which may help increase bioavailability without associated anti-nutritional effects of phytic acid. Taken together these results demonstrate the potential for marker-based selection to optimise trait trade-offs and enhance wheat nutritional value by considering pleiotropic genetic effects across multiple traits.

Defining the physiological determinants of low nitrogen requirement in wheat.

Nitrogen (N) is a major nutrient limiting productivity in many ecosystems. The large N demands associated with food crop production are met mainly through the provision of synthetic N fertiliser, leading to economic and ecological costs. Optimising the balance between N supply and demand is key to reducing N losses to the environment. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production provides food for millions of people worldwide and is highly dependent on sufficient N supply. The size of the N sink, i.e. wheat grain (number, size, and protein content) is the main driver of high N requirement. Optimal functioning of temporary sinks, in particular the canopy, can also affect N requirement. N use efficiency (i.e. yield produced per unit of N available) tends to be lower under high N conditions, suggesting that wheat plants are more efficient under low N conditions and that there is an optimal functioning yet unattained under high N conditions. Understanding the determinants of low N requirement in wheat would provide the basis for the selection of genetic material suitable for sustainable cereal production. In this review, we dissect the drivers of N requirement at the plant level along with the temporal dynamics of supply and demand.

Maintenance of UK bread baking quality: Trends in wheat quality traits over 50 years of breeding and potential for future application of genomic-assisted selection.

Improved selection of wheat varieties with high end-use quality contributes to sustainable food systems by ensuring productive crops are suitable for human consumption end-uses. Here, we investigated the genetic control and genomic prediction of milling and baking quality traits in a panel of 379 historic and elite, high-quality UK bread wheat (Triticum eastivum L.) varieties and breeding lines. Analysis of the panel showed that genetic diversity has not declined over recent decades of selective breeding while phenotypic analysis found a clear trend of increased loaf baking quality of modern milling wheats despite declining grain protein content. Genome-wide association analysis identified 24 quantitative trait loci (QTL) across all quality traits, many of which had pleiotropic effects. Changes in the frequency of positive alleles of QTL over recent decades reflected trends in trait variation and reveal where progress has historically been made for improved baking quality traits. It also demonstrates opportunities for marker-assisted selection for traits such as Hagberg falling number and specific weight that do not appear to have been improved by recent decades of phenotypic selection. We demonstrate that applying genomic prediction in a commercial wheat breeding program for expensive late-stage loaf baking quality traits outperforms phenotypic selection based on early-stage predictive quality traits. Finally, trait-assisted genomic prediction combining both phenotypic and genomic selection enabled slightly higher prediction accuracy, but genomic prediction alone was the most cost-effective selection strategy considering genotyping and phenotyping costs per sample.