Using milk mid-infrared spectroscopy to estimate cow-level nitrogen efficiency metrics.

Minimizing pollution from the dairy sector is paramount; one potential cause of such pollution is excess nitrogen. Nitrogen pollution contributes to a deterioration in water quality as well as an increase in both eutrophication and greenhouse gases. It is therefore essential to minimize the loss of nitrogen from the sector, including excretion from the cow. Breeding programs are one potential strategy to improve the efficiency with which nitrogen is used by dairy cows but relies on routine access to individual cow information on how efficiently each cows uses the nitrogen it ingests. A total of 3,497 test-day records for individual cow nitrogen efficiency metrics along with milk yield and the associated milk spectra were used to investigate the ability of milk infrared spectral data to predict these nitrogen traits; both traditional partial least squares regression and neural networks were used in the prediction process. The data originated from 4 farms across 11 years. The nitrogen traits investigated were nitrogen intake, nitrogen use efficiency, and nitrogen balance. Both nitrogen use efficiency and nitrogen balance were calculated considering nitrogen intake, nitrogen in milk, nitrogen in the conceptus, nitrogen used for the growth, nitrogen stored in the reserves, and nitrogen mobilized from the reserves. Irrespective of the nitrogen-related trait being investigated, the best prediction from 4-fold cross-validation were achieved using neural networks that considered both the morning and evening milk spectra along with milk yield, parity, and days in milk in the prediction process. The coefficient of determination in the cross-validation was 0.61, 0.74, and 0.58 for nitrogen intake, nitrogen use efficiency, and nitrogen balance, respectively. In a separate series of validation approaches, the calibration and validation was stratified by herd (n = 4) and separately by year. For these scenarios, partial least squares regression generated more accurate predictions compared with neural networks; the coefficient of determination was always lower than 0.29 and 0.60 when validation was stratified by herd and year, respectively. Therefore, if the variability of the data being predicted in the validation data sets is similar to that in the data used to develop the predictions, then nitrogen-related traits can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. In contrast, where the variability of the data that exists in the validation data set is poorly represented in the calibration data set, then poor predictions will ensue.

Predicting methane emissions of individual grazing dairy cows from spectral analyses of their milk samples.

Data on the enteric methane emissions of individual cows are useful not just in assisting management decisions and calculating herd inventories but also as inputs for animal genetic evaluations. Data generation for many animal characteristics, including enteric methane emissions, can be expensive and time consuming, so being able to extract as much information as possible from available samples or data sources is worthy of investigation. The objective of the present study was to attempt to predict individual cow methane emissions from the information contained within milk samples, specifically the spectrum of light transmittance across different wavelengths of the mid-infrared (MIR) region of the electromagnetic spectrum. A total of 93,888 individual spot measures of methane (i.e., individual samples of an animal's breath when using the GreenFeed technology) from 384 lactations on 277 grazing dairy cows were collapsed into weekly averages expressed as grams per day; each weekly average coincided with a MIR spectral analysis of a morning or evening individual cow milk sample. Associations between the spectra and enteric methane measures were performed separately using partial least squares regression or neural networks with different tuning parameters evaluated. Several alternative definitions of the enteric methane phenotype (i.e., average enteric methane in the 6 d preceding or 6 d following taking the milk sample or the average of the 6 d before and after the milk sample, all of which also included the enteric methane emitted on the day of milk sampling), the candidate model features (e.g., milk yield, milk composition, and milk MIR) as well as validation strategy (i.e., cross-validation or leave-one-experimental treatment-out) were evaluated. Irrespective of the validation method, the prediction accuracy was best when the average of the milk MIR from the morning and evening milk sample was used and the prediction model was developed using neural networks; concurrently including milk yield and days in milk in the prediction model generated superior predictions relative to just the spectral information alone. Furthermore, prediction accuracy was best when the enteric methane phenotype was the average of at least 20 methane spot measures across a 6-d period flanking each side of the milk sample with associated spectral data. Based on the strategy that achieved the best accuracy of prediction, the correlation between the actual and predicted daily methane emissions when based on 4-fold cross-validation varied per validation stratum from 0.68 to 0.75; the corresponding range when validated on each of the 8 different experimental treatments focusing on alternative pasture grazing systems represented in the dataset varied from 0.55 to 0.71. The root mean square error of prediction across the 4-folds of cross-validation was 37.46 g/d, whereas the root mean square error averaged across all folds of leave-one-treatment-out was 37.50 g/d. Results suggest that even with the likely measurement errors contained within the MIR spectrum and gold standard enteric methane phenotype, enteric methane can be reasonably well predicted from the infrared spectrum of milk samples. What is yet to be established, however, is whether (a) genetic variation exists in this predicted enteric methane phenotype and (b) selection on estimates of genetic merit for this phenotype translate to actual phenotypic differences in enteric methane emissions.

Usefulness of mid-infrared spectroscopy as a tool to estimate body condition score change from milk samples in intensively fed dairy cows.

Directly measuring individual cow energy balance is not trivial. Other traits such as body condition score (BCS) and BCS change (ΔBCS) can, however, be used as an indicator of cow energy status. Body condition score is a metric used worldwide to estimate cow body reserves, but the estimation of ΔBCS was, until now, conditional on the availability of multiple BCS assessments. The aim of the present study was to estimate ΔBCS from milk mid-infrared (MIR) spectra and days in milk (DIM) in intensively fed dairy cows using statistical prediction methods. Daily BCS was interpolated from cubic splines fitted through the BCS records and daily ΔBCS was calculated from these splines. The ΔBCS records were merged with milk MIR spectra recorded on the same week. The dataset comprised 37,077 ΔBCS phenotypes across 9,403 lactations from 6,988 cows in 151 herds based in Quebec, Canada. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) and a neural network (NN) were then used to estimate ΔBCS from (1) MIR spectra only, (2) DIM only, or (3) MIR spectra and DIM together. The ΔBCS data in both the first 120 and 305 DIM of lactation were used to develop the estimates. Daily ΔBCS had a standard deviation of 4.40 × 10-3 BCS units in the 120-d dataset and of 3.63 × 10-3 BCS units in the 305-d dataset. A 4-fold cross-validation was used to calibrate and test the prediction equations. External validation was also conducted using more recent years of data. Irrespective of whether based on the first 120 or 305 DIM, or when MIR spectra only, DIM only or MIR spectra and DIM were jointly used as prediction variables, NN produced the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) of cross-validation (1.81 × 10-3 BCS units and 1.51 × 10-3 BCS units, respectively, using the 120-d and 305-d dataset). Relative to predictions for the entire 305 DIM, the RMSE of cross-validation was 15.4% and 1.5% lower in the first 120 DIM when using PLSR and NN, respectively. Predictions from DIM only were more accurate than those using just MIR spectra data but, irrespective of the dataset and of the prediction model used, combining DIM information with MIR spectral data as prediction variables reduced the RMSE compared with the inclusion of DIM alone, albeit the benefit was small (the RMSE from cross-validation reduced by up to 5.5% when DIM and spectral data were jointly used as model features instead of DIM only). However, when predicting extreme ΔBCS records, the MIR spectral data were more informative than DIM. Model performance when predicting ΔBCS records in future years was similar to that from cross-validation demonstrating the ability of MIR spectra of milk and DIM combined to estimate ΔBCS, particularly in early lactation. This can be used to routinely generate estimates of ΔBCS to aid in day-to-day individual cow management.

Estimation of body condition score change in dairy cows in a seasonal calving pasture-based system using routinely available milk mid-infrared spectra and machine learning techniques.

Body condition score (BCS) is a subjective estimate of body reserves in cows. Body condition score and its change in early lactation have been associated with cow fertility and health. The aim of the present study was to estimate change in BCS (ΔBCS) using mid-infrared spectra of the milk, with a particular focus on estimating ΔBCS in cows losing BCS at the fastest rate (i.e., the cows most of interest to the producer). A total of 73,193 BCS records (scale 1 to 5) from 6,572 cows were recorded. Daily BCS was interpolated from cubic splines fitted through the BCS records, and subsequently used to calculate daily ΔBCS. Body condition score change records were merged with milk mid-infrared spectra recorded on the same week. Both morning (a.m.) and evening (p.m.) spectra were available. Two different statistical methods were used to estimate ΔBCS: partial least squares regression and a neural network (NN). Several combinations of variables were included as model features, such as days in milk (DIM) only, a.m. spectra only and DIM, p.m. spectra only and DIM, and a.m. and p.m. spectra as well as DIM. The data used to estimate ΔBCS were either based on the first 120 DIM or all 305 DIM. Daily ΔBCS had a standard deviation of 1.65 × 10-3 BCS units in the 305 DIM data set and of 1.98 × 10-3 BCS units in the 120 DIM data set. Each data set was divided into 4 sub-data sets, 3 of which were used for training the prediction model and the fourth to test it. This process was repeated until all the sub-data sets were considered as the test data set once. Using all 305 DIM, the lowest root mean square error of validation (RMSEV; 0.96 × 10-3 BCS units) and the strongest correlation between actual and estimated ΔBCS (0.82) was achieved with NN using a.m. and p.m. spectra and DIM. Using the 120 DIM data, the lowest RMSEV (0.98 × 10-3 BCS units) and the strongest correlation between actual and estimated ΔBCS (0.87) was achieved with NN using DIM and either a.m. spectra only or a.m. and p.m. spectra together. The RMSEV for records in the lowest 2.5% ΔBCS percentile per DIM in early lactation was reduced up to a maximum of 13% when spectra and DIM were both considered in the model compared with a model that considered just DIM. The performance of the NN using DIM and a.m. spectra only with the 120 DIM data was robust across different strata of farm, parity, year of sampling, and breed. Results from the present study demonstrate the ability of mid-infrared spectra of milk coupled with machine learning techniques to estimate ΔBCS; specifically, the inclusion of spectral data reduced the RMSEV over and above using DIM alone, particularly for cows losing BCS at the fastest rate. This approach can be used to routinely generate estimates of ΔBCS that can subsequently be used for farm decisions.

Application of machine-learning methods to milk mid-infrared spectra for discrimination of cow milk from pasture or total mixed ration diets.

The prevalence of "grass-fed" labeled food products on the market has increased in recent years, often commanding a premium price. To date, the majority of methods used for the authentication of grass-fed source products are driven by auditing and inspection of farm records. As such, the ability to verify grass-fed source claims to ensure consumer confidence will be important in the future. Mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy is widely used in the dairy industry as a rapid method for the routine monitoring of individual herd milk composition and quality. Further harnessing the data from individual spectra offers a promising and readily implementable strategy to authenticate the milk source at both farm and processor levels. Herein, a comprehensive comparison of the robustness, specificity, and accuracy of 11 machine-learning statistical analysis methods were tested for the discrimination of grass-fed versus non-grass-fed milks based on the MIR spectra of 4,320 milk samples collected from cows on pasture or indoor total mixed ration-based feeding systems over a 3-yr period. Linear discriminant analysis and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) were demonstrated to offer the greatest level of accuracy for the prediction of cow diet from MIR spectra. Parsimonious strategies for the selection of the most discriminating wavelengths within the spectra are also highlighted.

Predicting cow milk quality traits from routinely available milk spectra using statistical machine learning methods.

Numerous statistical machine learning methods suitable for application to highly correlated features, as those that exist for spectral data, could potentially improve prediction performance over the commonly used partial least squares approach. Milk samples from 622 individual cows with known detailed protein composition and technological trait data accompanied by mid-infrared spectra were available to assess the predictive ability of different regression and classification algorithms. The regression-based approaches were partial least squares regression (PLSR), ridge regression (RR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), elastic net, principal component regression, projection pursuit regression, spike and slab regression, random forests, boosting decision trees, neural networks (NN), and a post-hoc approach of model averaging (MA). Several classification methods (i.e., partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLSDA), random forests, boosting decision trees, and support vector machines (SVM)) were also used after stratifying the traits of interest into categories. In the regression analyses, MA was the best prediction method for 6 of the 14 traits investigated [curd firmness at 60 min, αS1-casein (CN), αS2-CN, κ-CN, α-lactalbumin, and ß-lactoglobulin B], whereas NN and RR were the best algorithms for 3 traits each (rennet coagulation time, curd-firming time, and heat stability, and curd firmness at 30 min, ß-CN, and ß-lactoglobulin A, respectively), PLSR was best for pH, and LASSO was best for CN micelle size. When traits were divided into 2 classes, SVM had the greatest accuracy for the majority of the traits investigated. Although the well-established PLSR-based method performed competitively, the application of statistical machine learning methods for regression analyses reduced the root mean square error compared with PLSR from between 0.18% (κ-CN) to 3.67% (heat stability). The use of modern statistical machine learning methods for trait prediction from mid-infrared spectroscopy may improve the prediction accuracy for some traits.

Vindesine in plasma cell tumors.

Twenty-one patients with plasma cell tumors received vindesine (VDS) at the dose of 3 mg/m2 i.v. on day 1 plus prednisone at the dose of 100 mg p.o. from day 1 to 5, recycling every 8 days 3 times and then every 10-12 days. In 3 patients with gastric or duodenal ulcer prednisone was not administered. All but one patient were heavily pretreated and resistant to M-2 regimen. Overall there were 4 objective responses (19%): 2 among 15 patients (13%) with multiple myeloma and 2 among 6 patients (33%) with extramedullary plasmacytoma (EMP). The responses lasted for 2, 12, 15 and 48+ months. One previously untreated EMP patient received VDS without prednisone and obtained a complete long-lasting remission. The association of VDS with high-dose prednisone seems to have some activity in plasma cell tumors; probably in multiple myeloma the objective responses are due to the high dose of cortisone rather than to VDS. On the contrary, in EMP patients, VDS may be an active agent, even if administered without cortisone.

Second and third responses to the same induction regimen in relapsing patients with multiple myeloma.

From September 1975 to December 1986, 115 consecutive previously untreated patients with multiple myeloma (MM) were treated with combination chemotherapy consisting of BCNU, cyclophosphamide, melphalan, vincristine, and prednisone (M-2). No patients were excluded or lost during follow-up. Forty-three percent of the patients were Stage I plus II, and 57% were Stage III. Thirty-eight patients (33%) had blood urea nitrogen greater than or equal to 40 mg/dl (substage B). Reaching an objective response treatment was stopped, generally after 1 year, and restarted at relapse. After induction therapy, 94 patients (82%) responded and had a median duration of response (MDR) of 22 months. After first relapse, 26 of 38 patients (69%) responded again to the same regimen and had an MDR of 11 months. This response rate and MDR are significantly lower than the ones achieved in induction chemotherapy. After second relapse, 7 of 16 patients (44%) again responded with an MDR of 3.5 months. The median survival time (MST) was 50.5 months for all patients. The most relevant side effect was leukopenia. No case of secondary leukemia was noticed. The authors conclude that patients with MM can be treated safely without maintenance therapy after reaching remission because a high response rate can be obtained in first and even second relapse. The planned treatment pause at remission does not adversely affect the survival time. Secondary leukemia is infrequent after this policy. Quality of life improves during the treatment pause.

Peptichemio in pretreated patients with plasmacell neoplasms.

Twenty-one patients with alkylator-resistant plasmacell neoplasms were treated with Peptichemio (PTC) at a dose of 40 mg/m2 for 3 days every 3 weeks or, in the case of persistent leukopenia and/or thrombocytopenia, at the single dose of 70 mg/m2 every 2-3 weeks according to haematological recovery. Seventeen patients, 10 with multiple myeloma and seven with extramedullary plasmacytoma (EMP), were fully evaluable. Six of 17 patients (35%) responded: three of seven EMP patients had a complete remission and 3 of 10 multiple myeloma patients had an objective response greater than 50%. The median duration of response was 8.5 months. An EMP patient obtained a complete response lasting for 16 months. The most frequent toxic effect were phlebosclerosis, occurring in all the patients, and myelosuppression, which was severe in only one case. PTC appears to be an active drug in patients with plasmacell neoplasms even if resistant to alkylating agents.