Bat pluripotent stem cells reveal unusual entanglement between host and viruses.

Bats are distinctive among mammals due to their ability to fly, use laryngeal echolocation, and tolerate viruses. However, there are currently no reliable cellular models for studying bat biology or their response to viral infections. Here, we created induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) from two species of bats: the wild greater horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) and the greater mouse-eared bat (Myotis myotis). The iPSCs from both bat species showed similar characteristics and had a gene expression profile resembling that of cells attacked by viruses. They also had a high number of endogenous viral sequences, particularly retroviruses. These results suggest that bats have evolved mechanisms to tolerate a large load of viral sequences and may have a more intertwined relationship with viruses than previously thought. Further study of bat iPSCs and their differentiated progeny will provide insights into bat biology, virus host relationships, and the molecular basis of bats' special traits.

Evaluation of respondent-driven sampling in seven studies of people who use drugs from rural populations: findings from the Rural Opioid Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Accurate prevalence estimates of drug use and its harms are important to characterize burden and develop interventions to reduce negative health outcomes and disparities. Lack of a sampling frame for marginalized/stigmatized populations, including persons who use drugs (PWUD) in rural settings, makes this challenging. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is frequently used to recruit PWUD. However, the validity of RDS-generated population-level prevalence estimates relies on assumptions that should be evaluated. METHODS: RDS was used to recruit PWUD across seven Rural Opioid Initiative studies between 2018-2020. To evaluate RDS assumptions, we computed recruitment homophily and design effects, generated convergence and bottleneck plots, and tested for recruitment and degree differences. We compared sample proportions with three RDS-adjusted estimators (two variations of RDS-I and RDS-II) for five variables of interest (past 30-day use of heroin, fentanyl, and methamphetamine; past 6-month homelessness; and being positive for hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody) using linear regression with robust confidence intervals. We compared regression estimates for the associations between HCV positive antibody status and (a) heroin use, (b) fentanyl use, and (c) age using RDS-1 and RDS-II probability weights and no weights using logistic and modified Poisson regression and random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Among 2,842 PWUD, median age was 34 years and 43% were female. Most participants (54%) reported opioids as their drug of choice, however regional differences were present (e.g., methamphetamine range: 4-52%). Many recruitment chains were not long enough to achieve sample equilibrium. Recruitment homophily was present for some variables. Differences with respect to recruitment and degree varied across studies. Prevalence estimates varied only slightly with different RDS weighting approaches, most confidence intervals overlapped. Variations in measures of association varied little based on weighting approach. CONCLUSIONS: RDS was a useful recruitment tool for PWUD in rural settings. However, several violations of key RDS assumptions were observed which slightly impacts estimation of proportion although not associations.

Intersection of Syphilis and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Networks to Identify Opportunities to Enhance HIV Prevention.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and syphilis infection continue at disproportionate rates among minority men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States. The integration of HIV genetic clustering with partner services can provide important insight into local epidemic trends to guide interventions and control efforts. METHODS: We evaluated contact networks of index persons defined as minority men and transgender women diagnosed with early syphilis and/or HIV infection between 2018 and 2020 in 2 North Carolina regions. HIV clusters were constructed from pol sequences collected through statewide surveillance. A combined "HIV-risk" network, which included persons with any links (genetic or sexual contact) to HIV-positive persons, was evaluated by component size, demographic factors, and HIV viral suppression. RESULTS: In total, 1289 index persons were identified and 55% named 1153 contacts. Most index persons were Black (88%) and young (median age 30 years); 70% had early syphilis and 43% had prevalent HIV infection. Most people with HIV (65%) appeared in an HIV cluster. The combined HIV-risk network (1590 contact network and 1500 cluster members) included 287 distinct components; however, 1586 (51%) were in a single component. Fifty-five percent of network members with HIV had no evidence of viral suppression. Overall, fewer index persons needed to be interviewed to identify 1 HIV-positive member without viral suppression (1.3 vs 4.0 for contact tracing). CONCLUSIONS: Integration of HIV clusters and viral loads illuminate networks with high HIV prevalence, indicating recent and ongoing transmission. Interventions intensified toward these networks may efficiently reach persons for HIV prevention and care re-engagement.

HyPhy 2.5-A Customizable Platform for Evolutionary Hypothesis Testing Using Phylogenies.

HYpothesis testing using PHYlogenies (HyPhy) is a scriptable, open-source package for fitting a broad range of evolutionary models to multiple sequence alignments, and for conducting subsequent parameter estimation and hypothesis testing, primarily in the maximum likelihood statistical framework. It has become a popular choice for characterizing various aspects of the evolutionary process: natural selection, evolutionary rates, recombination, and coevolution. The 2.5 release (available from www.hyphy.org) includes a completely re-engineered computational core and analysis library that introduces new classes of evolutionary models and statistical tests, delivers substantial performance and stability enhancements, improves usability, streamlines end-to-end analysis workflows, makes it easier to develop custom analyses, and is mostly backward compatible with previous HyPhy releases.

Identification of Hidden Population Structure in Time-Scaled Phylogenies.

Population structure influences genealogical patterns, however, data pertaining to how populations are structured are often unavailable or not directly observable. Inference of population structure is highly important in molecular epidemiology where pathogen phylogenetics is increasingly used to infer transmission patterns and detect outbreaks. Discrepancies between observed and idealized genealogies, such as those generated by the coalescent process, can be quantified, and where significant differences occur, may reveal the action of natural selection, host population structure, or other demographic and epidemiological heterogeneities. We have developed a fast non-parametric statistical test for detection of cryptic population structure in time-scaled phylogenetic trees. The test is based on contrasting estimated phylogenies with the theoretically expected phylodynamic ordering of common ancestors in two clades within a coalescent framework. These statistical tests have also motivated the development of algorithms which can be used to quickly screen a phylogenetic tree for clades which are likely to share a distinct demographic or epidemiological history. Epidemiological applications include identification of outbreaks in vulnerable host populations or rapid expansion of genotypes with a fitness advantage. To demonstrate the utility of these methods for outbreak detection, we applied the new methods to large phylogenies reconstructed from thousands of HIV-1 partial pol sequences. This revealed the presence of clades which had grown rapidly in the recent past and was significantly concentrated in young men, suggesting recent and rapid transmission in that group. Furthermore, to demonstrate the utility of these methods for the study of antimicrobial resistance, we applied the new methods to a large phylogeny reconstructed from whole genome Neisseria gonorrhoeae sequences. We find that population structure detected using these methods closely overlaps with the appearance and expansion of mutations conferring antimicrobial resistance. [Antimicrobial resistance; coalescent; HIV; population structure.].

Fast hierarchical Bayesian analysis of population structure.

We present fastbaps, a fast solution to the genetic clustering problem. Fastbaps rapidly identifies an approximate fit to a Dirichlet process mixture model (DPM) for clustering multilocus genotype data. Our efficient model-based clustering approach is able to cluster datasets 10-100 times larger than the existing model-based methods, which we demonstrate by analyzing an alignment of over 110 000 sequences of HIV-1 pol genes. We also provide a method for rapidly partitioning an existing hierarchy in order to maximize the DPM model marginal likelihood, allowing us to split phylogenetic trees into clades and subclades using a population genomic model. Extensive tests on simulated data as well as a diverse set of real bacterial and viral datasets show that fastbaps provides comparable or improved solutions to previous model-based methods, while being significantly faster. The method is made freely available under an open source MIT licence as an easy to use R package at https://github.com/gtonkinhill/fastbaps.

Assessment of a multiplex PCR and Nanopore-based method for dengue virus sequencing in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Dengue virus (DENV) infects hundreds of thousands of people annually in Indonesia. However, DENV sequence data from the country are limited, as samples from outbreaks must be shipped across long-distances to suitably equipped laboratories to be sequenced. This approach is time-consuming, expensive, and frequently results in failure due to low viral load or degradation of the RNA genome. METHODS: We evaluated a method designed to address this challenge, using the 'Primal Scheme' multiplex PCR tiling approach to rapidly generate short, overlapping amplicons covering the complete DENV coding-region, and sequencing the amplicons on the portable Nanopore MinION device. The resulting sequence data was assessed in terms of genome coverage, consensus sequence accuracy and by phylogenetic analysis. RESULTS: The multiplex approach proved capable of producing near complete coding-region coverage from all samples tested ([Formula: see text] = 99.96%, n = 18), 61% of which could not be fully amplified using the current, long-amplicon PCR, approach. Nanopore-generated consensus sequences were found to be between 99.17-99.92% identical to those produced by high-coverage Illumina sequencing. Consensus accuracy could be improved by masking regions below 20X coverage depth (99.69-99.92%). However, coding-region coverage was reduced at this depth ([Formula: see text] = 93.48%). Nanopore and Illumina consensus sequences generated from the same samples formed monophyletic clades on phylogenetic analysis, and Indonesian consensus sequences accurately clustered by geographical origin. CONCLUSION: The multiplex, short-amplicon approach proved superior for amplifying DENV genomes from clinical samples, particularly when the virus was present at low concentrations. The accuracy of Nanopore-generated consensus sequences from these amplicons was sufficient for identifying the geographic origin of the samples, demonstrating that the approach can be a useful tool for identifying and monitoring DENV clades circulating in low-resource settings across Indonesia. However, the inaccuracies in Nanopore-generated consensus sequences mean that the approach may not be appropriate for higher resolution transmission studies, particularly when more accurate sequencing technologies are available.

Neutral Theory and Rapidly Evolving Viral Pathogens.

The evolution of viral pathogens is shaped by strong selective forces that are exerted during jumps to new hosts, confrontations with host immune responses and antiviral drugs, and numerous other processes. However, while undeniably strong and frequent, adaptive evolution is largely confined to small parts of information-packed viral genomes, and the majority of observed variation is effectively neutral. The predictions and implications of the neutral theory have proven immensely useful in this context, with applications spanning understanding within-host population structure, tracing the origins and spread of viral pathogens, predicting evolutionary dynamics, and modeling the emergence of drug resistance. We highlight the multiple ways in which the neutral theory has had an impact, which has been accelerated in the age of high-throughput, high-resolution genomics.

Genotype-Specific Evolution of Hepatitis E Virus.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is the most common cause of acute viral hepatitis globally. HEV comprises four genotypes with different geographic distributions and host ranges. We utilize this natural case-control study for investigating the evolution of zoonotic viruses compared to single-host viruses, using 244 near-full-length HEV genomes. Genome-wide estimates of the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous evolutionary changes (dN/dS ratio) located a region of overlapping reading frames, which is subject to positive selection in genotypes 3 and 4. The open reading frames (ORFs) involved have functions related to host-pathogen interaction, so genotype-specific evolution of these regions may reflect their fitness. Bayesian inference of evolutionary rates shows that genotypes 3 and 4 have significantly higher rates than genotype 1 across all ORFs. Reconstruction of the phylogenies of zoonotic genotypes demonstrates significant intermingling of isolates between hosts. We speculate that the genotype-specific differences may result from cyclical adaptation to different hosts in genotypes 3 and 4.IMPORTANCE Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is increasingly recognized as a pathogen that affects both the developing and the developed world. While most often clinically mild, HEV can be severe or fatal in certain demographics, such as expectant mothers. Like many other viral pathogens, HEV has been classified into several distinct genotypes. We show that most of the HEV genome is evolutionarily constrained. One locus of positive selection is unusual in that it encodes two distinct protein products. We are the first to detect positive selection in this overlap region. Genotype 1, which infects humans only, appears to be evolving differently from genotypes 3 and 4, which infect multiple species, possibly because genotypes 3 and 4 are unable to achieve the same fitness due to repeated host jumps.

The role of venues in structuring HIV, sexually transmitted infections, and risk networks among men who have sex with men.

BACKGROUND: Venues form part of the sampling frame for time-location sampling, an approach often used for HIV surveillance. While sampling location is often regarded as a nuisance factor, venues may play a central role in structuring risk networks. We investigated individual reports of risk behaviors and infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) attending different venues to examine structuring of HIV risk behaviors. However, teasing apart 'risky people' from 'risky places' is difficult, as individuals cannot be randomized to attend different venues. However, we can emulate this statistically using marginal structural models, which inversely weight individuals according to their estimated probability of attending the venue. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 609 MSM patrons of 14 bars in San Diego, California, recruited using the Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts (PLACE) methodology, which consists of a multi-level identification and assessment of venues for HIV risk through population surveys. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Venues differed by many factors, including participants' reported age, ethnicity, number of lifetime male partners, past sexually transmitted infection (STI), and HIV status. In multivariable marginal structural models, venues demonstrated structuring of HIV+ status, past STI, and methamphetamine use, independently of individual-level characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Studies using time-location sampling should consider venue as an important covariate, and the use of marginal structural models may help to identify risky venues. This may assist in widespread, economically feasible and sustainable targeted surveillance and prevention. A more mechanistic understanding of how 'risky venues' emerge and structure risk is needed.

Modeling and analyzing respondent-driven sampling as a counting process.

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is an approach to sampling design and analysis which utilizes the networks of social relationships that connect members of the target population, using chain-referral. RDS sampling will typically oversample participants with many acquaintances. Naïve estimators, such as the sample average, will thus be biased towards the state of the most highly connected individuals. Current methodology cannot estimate population size from RDS, and promotes inverse probability weighted estimators for population parameters such as HIV prevalence. We propose to use the timing of recruitment, typically collected and discarded, in order to estimate the population size via a counting process model. Once population size and degree frequencies are made available, prevalence can be debiased in a post-stratified framework. We adapt methods developed for inference in epidemiology and software reliability to estimate the population size, degree counts and frequencies. A fundamental advantage of our approach is that it makes the assumptions of the sampling design explicit. This enables verification of the assumptions, maximum likelihood estimation, extension with covariates, and model selection. We develop large-sample theory, proving consistency and asymptotic normality. We further compare our estimators to other estimators in the RDS literature, through simulation and real-world data. In both cases, we find our estimators to outperform current methods. The likelihood problem in the model we present is separable, and thus efficiently solvable. We implement these estimators in an accompanying R package, chords, available on CRAN.

Measuring Asymmetry in Time-Stamped Phylogenies.

Previous work has shown that asymmetry in viral phylogenies may be indicative of heterogeneity in transmission, for example due to acute HIV infection or the presence of 'core groups' with higher contact rates. Hence, evidence of asymmetry may provide clues to underlying population structure, even when direct information on, for example, stage of infection or contact rates, are missing. However, current tests of phylogenetic asymmetry (a) suffer from false positives when the tips of the phylogeny are sampled at different times and (b) only test for global asymmetry, and hence suffer from false negatives when asymmetry is localised to part of a phylogeny. We present a simple permutation-based approach for testing for asymmetry in a phylogeny, where we compare the observed phylogeny with random phylogenies with the same sampling and coalescence times, to reduce the false positive rate. We also demonstrate how profiles of measures of asymmetry calculated over a range of evolutionary times in the phylogeny can be used to identify local asymmetry. In combination with different metrics of asymmetry, this combined approach offers detailed insights of how phylogenies reconstructed from real viral datasets may deviate from the simplistic assumptions of commonly used coalescent and birth-death process models.

Can non-lytic CD8+ T cells drive HIV-1 escape?

The CD8+ T cell effector mechanisms that mediate control of HIV-1 and SIV infections remain poorly understood. Recent work suggests that the mechanism may be primarily non-lytic. This is in apparent conflict with the observation that SIV and HIV-1 variants that escape CD8+ T cell surveillance are frequently selected. Whilst it is clear that a variant that has escaped a lytic response can have a fitness advantage compared to the wild-type, it is less obvious that this holds in the face of non-lytic control where both wild-type and variant infected cells would be affected by soluble factors. In particular, the high motility of T cells in lymphoid tissue would be expected to rapidly destroy local effects making selection of escape variants by non-lytic responses unlikely. The observation of frequent HIV-1 and SIV escape poses a number of questions. Most importantly, is the consistent observation of viral escape proof that HIV-1- and SIV-specific CD8+ T cells lyse infected cells or can this also be the result of non-lytic control? Additionally, the rate at which a variant strain escapes a lytic CD8+ T cell response is related to the strength of the response. Is the same relationship true for a non-lytic response? Finally, the potential anti-viral control mediated by non-lytic mechanisms compared to lytic mechanisms is unknown. These questions cannot be addressed with current experimental techniques nor with the standard mathematical models. Instead we have developed a 3D cellular automaton model of HIV-1 which captures spatial and temporal dynamics. The model reproduces in vivo HIV-1 dynamics at the cellular and population level. Using this model we demonstrate that non-lytic effector mechanisms can select for escape variants but that outgrowth of the variant is slower and less frequent than from a lytic response so that non-lytic responses can potentially offer more durable control.

Assessing the use of hospital staff influenza-like absence (ILA) for enhancing hospital preparedness and national surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Early warning and robust estimation of influenza burden are critical to inform hospital preparedness and operational, treatment, and vaccination policies. Methods to enhance influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance are regularly reviewed. We investigated the use of hospital staff 'influenza-like absences' (hospital staff-ILA), i.e. absence attributed to colds and influenza, to improve capture of influenza dynamics and provide resilience for hospitals. METHODS: Numbers and rates of hospital staff-ILA were compared to regional surveillance data on ILI primary-care presentations (15-64 years) and to counts of laboratory confirmed cases among hospitalised patients from April 2008 to April 2013 inclusive. Analyses were used to determine comparability of the ILI and hospital-ILA and how systems compared in early warning and estimating the burden of disease. RESULTS: Among 20,021 reported hospital-ILA and 4661 community ILI cases, correlations in counts were high and consistency in illness measurements was observed. In time series analyses, both hospital-ILA and ILI showed similar timing of the seasonal component. Hospital-ILA data often commenced and peaked earlier than ILI according to a Bayesian prospective alarm algorithm. Hospital-ILA rates were more comparable to model-based estimates of 'true' influenza burden than ILI. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital-ILA appears to have the potential to be a robust, yet simple syndromic surveillance method that could be used to enhance estimates of disease burden and early warning, and assist with local hospital preparedness.

Inferring the source of transmission with phylogenetic data.

Identifying the source of transmission using pathogen genetic data is complicated by numerous biological, immunological, and behavioral factors. A large source of error arises when there is incomplete or sparse sampling of cases. Unsampled cases may act as either a common source of infection or as an intermediary in a transmission chain for hosts infected with genetically similar pathogens. It is difficult to quantify the probability of common source or intermediate transmission events, which has made it difficult to develop statistical tests to either confirm or deny putative transmission pairs with genetic data. We present a method to incorporate additional information about an infectious disease epidemic, such as incidence and prevalence of infection over time, to inform estimates of the probability that one sampled host is the direct source of infection of another host in a pathogen gene genealogy. These methods enable forensic applications, such as source-case attribution, for infectious disease epidemics with incomplete sampling, which is usually the case for high-morbidity community-acquired pathogens like HIV, Influenza and Dengue virus. These methods also enable epidemiological applications such as the identification of factors that increase the risk of transmission. We demonstrate these methods in the context of the HIV epidemic in Detroit, Michigan, and we evaluate the suitability of current sequence databases for forensic and epidemiological investigations. We find that currently available sequences collected for drug resistance testing of HIV are unlikely to be useful in most forensic investigations, but are useful for identifying transmission risk factors.

Deep molecular characterization of HIV-1 dynamics under suppressive HAART.

In order to design strategies for eradication of HIV-1 from infected individuals, detailed insight into the HIV-1 reservoirs that persist in patients on suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) is required. In this regard, most studies have focused on integrated (proviral) HIV-1 DNA forms in cells circulating in blood. However, the majority of proviral DNA is replication-defective and archival, and as such, has limited ability to reveal the dynamics of the viral population that persists in patients on suppressive ART. In contrast, extrachromosomal (episomal) viral DNA is labile and as a consequence is a better surrogate for recent infection events and is able to inform on the extent to which residual replication contributes to viral reservoir maintenance. To gain insight into the diversity and compartmentalization of HIV-1 under suppressive ART, we extensively analyzed longitudinal peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) samples by deep sequencing of episomal and integrated HIV-1 DNA from patients undergoing raltegravir intensification. Reverse-transcriptase genes selectively amplified from episomal and proviral HIV-1 DNA were analyzed by deep sequencing 0, 2, 4, 12, 24 and 48 weeks after raltegravir intensification. We used maximum likelihood phylogenies and statistical tests (AMOVA and Slatkin-Maddison (SM)) in order to determine molecular compartmentalization. We observed low molecular variance (mean variability ≤0.042). Although phylogenies showed that both DNA forms were intermingled within the phylogenetic tree, we found a statistically significant compartmentalization between episomal and proviral DNA samples (P<10(-6) AMOVA test; P = 0.001 SM test), suggesting that they belong to different viral populations. In addition, longitudinal analysis of episomal and proviral DNA by phylogeny and AMOVA showed signs of non-chronological temporal compartmentalization (all comparisons P<10(-6)) suggesting that episomal and proviral DNA forms originated from different anatomical compartments. Collectively, this suggests the presence of a chronic viral reservoir in which there is stochastic release of infectious virus and in which there are limited rounds of de novo infection. This could be explained by the existence of different reservoirs with unique pharmacological accessibility properties, which will require strategies that improve drug penetration/retention within these reservoirs in order to minimise maintenance of the viral reservoir by de novo infection.

Individual and network factors associated with prevalent hepatitis C infection among rural Appalachian injection drug users.

OBJECTIVES: We determined the factors associated with hepatitis C (HCV) infection among rural Appalachian drug users. METHODS: This study included 394 injection drug users (IDUs) participating in a study of social networks and infectious disease risk in Appalachian Kentucky. Trained staff conducted HCV, HIV, and herpes simplex-2 virus (HSV-2) testing, and an interviewer-administered questionnaire measured self-reported risk behaviors and sociometric network characteristics. RESULTS: The prevalence of HCV infection was 54.6% among rural IDUs. Lifetime factors independently associated with HCV infection included HSV-2, injecting for 5 or more years, posttraumatic stress disorder, injection of cocaine, and injection of prescription opioids. Recent (past-6-month) correlates of HCV infection included sharing of syringes (adjusted odds ratio = 2.24; 95% confidence interval = 1.32, 3.82) and greater levels of eigenvector centrality in the drug network. CONCLUSIONS: One factor emerged that was potentially unique to rural IDUs: the association between injection of prescription opioids and HCV infection. Therefore, preventing transition to injection, especially among prescription opioid users, may curb transmission, as will increased access to opioid maintenance treatment, novel treatments for cocaine dependence, and syringe exchange.

Simple epidemiological dynamics explain phylogenetic clustering of HIV from patients with recent infection.

Phylogenies of highly genetically variable viruses such as HIV-1 are potentially informative of epidemiological dynamics. Several studies have demonstrated the presence of clusters of highly related HIV-1 sequences, particularly among recently HIV-infected individuals, which have been used to argue for a high transmission rate during acute infection. Using a large set of HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences collected from men who have sex with men, we demonstrate that virus from recent infections tend to be phylogenetically clustered at a greater rate than virus from patients with chronic infection ('excess clustering') and also tend to cluster with other recent HIV infections rather than chronic, established infections ('excess co-clustering'), consistent with previous reports. To determine the role that a higher infectivity during acute infection may play in excess clustering and co-clustering, we developed a simple model of HIV infection that incorporates an early period of intensified transmission, and explicitly considers the dynamics of phylogenetic clusters alongside the dynamics of acute and chronic infected cases. We explored the potential for clustering statistics to be used for inference of acute stage transmission rates and found that no single statistic explains very much variance in parameters controlling acute stage transmission rates. We demonstrate that high transmission rates during the acute stage is not the main cause of excess clustering of virus from patients with early/acute infection compared to chronic infection, which may simply reflect the shorter time since transmission in acute infection. Higher transmission during acute infection can result in excess co-clustering of sequences, while the extent of clustering observed is most sensitive to the fraction of infections sampled.

Model design for nonparametric phylodynamic inference and applications to pathogen surveillance.

Inference of effective population size from genomic data can provide unique information about demographic history and, when applied to pathogen genetic data, can also provide insights into epidemiological dynamics. The combination of nonparametric models for population dynamics with molecular clock models which relate genetic data to time has enabled phylodynamic inference based on large sets of time-stamped genetic sequence data. The methodology for nonparametric inference of effective population size is well-developed in the Bayesian setting, but here we develop a frequentist approach based on nonparametric latent process models of population size dynamics. We appeal to statistical principles based on out-of-sample prediction accuracy in order to optimize parameters that control shape and smoothness of the population size over time. Our methodology is implemented in a new R package entitled mlesky. We demonstrate the flexibility and speed of this approach in a series of simulation experiments and apply the methodology to a dataset of HIV-1 in the USA. We also estimate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 in England using thousands of SARS-CoV-2 sequences. By incorporating a measure of the strength of these interventions over time within the phylodynamic model, we estimate the impact of the first national lockdown in the UK on the epidemic reproduction number.

Phylogenomic analysis uncovers a 9-year variation of Uganda influenza type-A strains from the WHO-recommended vaccines and other Africa strains.

Genetic characterisation of circulating influenza viruses directs annual vaccine strain selection and mitigation of infection spread. We used next-generation sequencing to locally generate whole genomes from 116 A(H1N1)pdm09 and 118 A(H3N2) positive patient swabs collected across Uganda between 2010 and 2018. We recovered sequences from 92% (215/234) of the swabs, 90% (193/215) of which were whole genomes. The newly-generated sequences were genetically and phylogenetically compared to the WHO-recommended vaccines and other Africa strains sampled since 1994. Uganda strain hemagglutinin (n = 206), neuraminidase (n = 207), and matrix protein (MP, n = 213) sequences had 95.23-99.65%, 95.31-99.79%, and 95.46-100% amino acid similarity to the 2010-2020 season vaccines, respectively, with several mutated hemagglutinin antigenic, receptor binding, and N-linked glycosylation sites. Uganda influenza type-A virus strains sequenced before 2016 clustered uniquely while later strains mixed with other Africa and global strains. We are the first to report novel A(H1N1)pdm09 subclades 6B.1A.3, 6B.1A.5(a,b), and 6B.1A.6 (± T120A) that circulated in Eastern, Western, and Southern Africa in 2017-2019. Africa forms part of the global influenza ecology with high viral genetic diversity, progressive antigenic drift, and local transmissions. For a continent with inadequate health resources and where social distancing is unsustainable, vaccination is the best option. Hence, African stakeholders should prioritise routine genome sequencing and analysis to direct vaccine selection and virus control.