Did the 1918 influenza pandemic cause a 1920 baby boom? Demographic evidence from neutral Europe.

In 1919-20, the European countries that were neutral in the First World War saw a small baby bust followed by a small baby boom. The sparse literature on this topic attributes the 1919 bust to individuals postponing conceptions during the peak of the 1918-20 influenza pandemic and the 1920 boom to recuperation of those conceptions. Using data from six large neutral countries of Europe, we present novel evidence contradicting that narrative. In fact, the subnational populations and maternal birth cohorts whose fertility was initially hit hardest by the pandemic were still experiencing below-average fertility in 1920. Demographic evidence, economic evidence, and a review of post-pandemic fertility trends outside Europe suggest that the 1920 baby boom in neutral Europe was caused by the end of the First World War, not by the end of the pandemic.

Social distancing and influenza mortality in 1918 did not increase suicide rates in the United States.

Recent research has suggested that the social distancing mandates introduced in the United States during the main waves of the 1918-20 influenza pandemic caused an increase in suicide rates. However, that finding relies on poor-quality, temporally mismatched data and has signs of omitted variable bias. Similarly, a long-standing finding that American suicide rates in 1918-20 were also boosted by the influenza mortality of the time has gone unquestioned in the literature, despite the original research admitting its risk of ecological fallacy. Using higher-powered mortality data, I cast doubt on both findings by analyzing the experiences of the pandemic in 43 of the largest American cities of the time. In line with some populations' experiences of COVID-19, I report tentative evidence that social distancing mandates during the 1918-20 pandemic may have been associated with decreased suicide rates. Larger, cross-national investigations of the effects of historical pandemics and social distancing mandates on mental health and suicide are needed.

Brexit and the geography of depression: A reply to Liew et al. (2020).

Liew et al. (2020) recently published a paper in this journal that analyzed antidepressant prescription trends in the context of the 2016 Brexit referendum and the sociopolitical discord that followed. They present a novel finding that Leave-majority constituencies in England seemed more adversely affected by that discord than Remain-majority constituencies. I offer criticism of their findings and methodology. Using the complete set of available NHS prescription data shows that the trend the authors detect dates from at least mid-2010 and is not associated with the referendum. In terms of methodology, I critique the potential ecological fallacy and issues of false equivalence in their study design. The former stems from the inability to adequately control for demographic heterogeneity within constituencies, and the latter stems from the fact that the populations from which they draw their data are not equivalent in potentially important ways. Finally, I conclude that the key trend the authors detect seems to merely be a geographic artifact. The set of Remain-majority constituencies unintentionally oversamples the areas of England with the lowest rates of antidepressant prevalence, Greater London and the Southeast. Remain-majority constituencies outside of those two regions have roughly the same antidepressant prescription levels as Leave-majority constituencies in all of England. In itself, that is a troubling fact of social epidemiology, but Brexit is associated with it neither spatially nor temporally.

Using local knowledge in emerging infectious disease research.

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a growing global health threat. The Stockholm Paradigm suggests that their toll will grow tragically in the face of climate change, in particular. The best research protocol for predicting and preventing infectious disease emergence states that an urgent search must commence to identify unknown human and animal pathogens. This short communication proposes that the ethnobiological knowledge of indigenous and impoverished communities can be a source of information about some of those unknown pathogens. I present the ecological and anthropological theory behind this proposal, followed by a few case studies that serve as a limited proof of concept. This paper also serves as a call to action for the medical anthropology community. It gives a brief primer on the EID crisis and how anthropology research may be vital to limiting its havoc on global health. Local knowledge is not likely to play a major role in EID research initiatives, but the incorporation of an awareness of EIDs into standard medical anthropological practice would have myriad other benefits.