Colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, and stage distribution in European countries in the colorectal cancer screening era: an international population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer screening programmes and uptake vary substantially across Europe. We aimed to compare changes over time in colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, and stage distribution in relation to colorectal cancer screening implementation in European countries. METHODS: Data from nearly 3·1 million patients with colorectal cancer diagnosed from 2000 onwards (up to 2016 for most countries) were obtained from 21 European countries, and were used to analyse changes over time in age-standardised colorectal cancer incidence and stage distribution. The WHO mortality database was used to analyse changes over time in age-standardised colorectal cancer mortality over the same period for the 16 countries with nationwide data. Incidence rates were calculated for all sites of the colon and rectum combined, as well as the subsites proximal colon, distal colon, and rectum. Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in incidence and mortality were estimated and relevant patterns were descriptively analysed. FINDINGS: In countries with long-standing programmes of screening colonoscopy and faecal tests (ie, Austria, the Czech Republic, and Germany), colorectal cancer incidence decreased substantially over time, with AAPCs ranging from -2·5% (95% CI -2·8 to -2·2) to -1·6% (-2·0 to -1·2) in men and from -2·4% (-2·7 to -2·1) to -1·3% (-1·7 to -0·9) in women. In countries where screening programmes were implemented during the study period, age-standardised colorectal cancer incidence either remained stable or increased up to the year screening was implemented. AAPCs for these countries ranged from -0·2% (95% CI -1·4 to 1·0) to 1·5% (1·1 to 1·8) in men and from -0·5% (-1·7 to 0·6) to 1·2% (0·8 to 1·5) in women. Where high screening coverage and uptake were rapidly achieved (ie, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Slovenia), age-standardised incidence rates initially increased but then subsequently decreased. Conversely, colorectal cancer incidence increased in most countries where no large-scale screening programmes were available (eg, Bulgaria, Estonia, Norway, and Ukraine), with AAPCs ranging from 0·3% (95% CI 0·1 to 0·5) to 1·9% (1·2 to 2·6) in men and from 0·6% (0·4 to 0·8) to 1·1% (0·8 to 1·4) in women. The largest decreases in colorectal cancer mortality were seen in countries with long-standing screening programmes. INTERPRETATION: We observed divergent trends in colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, and stage distribution across European countries, which appear to be largely explained by different levels of colorectal cancer screening implementation. FUNDING: German Cancer Aid (Deutsche Krebshilfe) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.

Skin melanoma deaths within 1 or 3 years from diagnosis in Europe.

The steep increase in incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma in white populations mainly applies to thin lesions with good survival suggesting overdiagnosis. Based on population-based cancer registries (CRs), we have investigated changes in aggressive melanoma, selecting only cases who died within 1 or 3 years after diagnosis in 11 European countries between 1995 and 2012. Trends in fatal cases were analysed by period of diagnosis, sex, tumour thickness, histologic subtype of the lesion, tumour site and CR with a multivariate generalised linear mixed effects model, where geographical area was considered as a random effect. We collected data on 123 360 invasive melanomas, with 5133 fatal cases at 1 year (4%) and 12 330 (10%) at 3 years. The number of fatal cases showed a 16% decrease at 1 year and 8% at 3 years between the first (1995-2000) and the last (2007-2012) period. The highest proportion of fatal cases was seen for men, older age (≥65 years), thick lesions (>1 mm), nodular melanoma, melanoma on the trunk and for poorly documented cases, lacking information about thickness and histologic subtype. The mixed-effects model showed a remarkable variability among European countries. The majority of registries showed a decreasing trend in fatal cases, but a few registries showed an opposite pattern. Trends in fatal melanoma cases, highlighting real changes in risk not related to overdiagnosis, showed a decrease in most European countries, with a few exceptions. Stronger efforts for early detection could lead to a more efficient treatment of melanoma in general.

Influence of adherence to adjuvant endocrine therapy on disease-free and overall survival: a population-based study in Catalonia, Spain.

OBJECTIVE: To assess adherence to endocrine therapy and its relation to recurrence and mortality in women with early breast cancer. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study in population-based cancer registries in two Catalonian provinces of Spain. We included all cases of invasive stage I-III breast cancer diagnosed from 2007 to 2011 and with follow-up to 2017. Adherence to endocrine therapy was measured by means of prescription refills. Patients were considered non-adherent if they filled less than 80% of their prescriptions. After collecting data from patients' medical records, we analysed clinical variables and their relation with adherence by means of logistic and Cox regression models. RESULTS: The study included 2413 women. Five-year adherence was 84.5%; the greatest risk for non-adherence was in women under 50 years of age, diagnosed with stage III cancer, treated with neoadjuvant therapy, or receiving tamoxifen or sequential treatment. Adverse effects were associated with greater adherence. Non-adherence was significantly and independently associated with recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 1.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-2.51) and all-cause mortality (HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.62-2.74), after adjusting for age and tumour stage. CONCLUSIONS: Although non-adherence was relatively infrequent in this population-based study, its impact on the risk of recurrence and mortality was considerable. Clinicians should make efforts to ensure therapeutic adherence during clinical follow-up of women with breast cancer.

Correlation between mutational status and survival and second cancer risk assessment in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal stromal tumors are sarcomas of the digestive tract characterized by mutations mainly located in the c-KIT or in the platelet-derived growth factor receptor (PDGFR)-alpha genes. Mutations in the BRAF gene have also been described. Our purpose is to define the distribution of c-KIT, PDGFR and BRAF mutations in a population-based cohort of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) patients and correlate them with anatomical site, risk classification and survival. In addition, as most of the GIST patients have a long survival, second cancers are frequently diagnosed in them. We performed a second primary cancer risk assessment. METHODS: Our analysis was based on data from Tarragona and Girona Cancer Registries. We identified all GIST diagnosed from 1996 to 2006 and performed a mutational analysis of those in which paraffin-embedded tissue was obtained. Observed (OS) and relative survival (RS) were calculated according to risk classifications and mutational status. Multivariate analysis of variables for observed survival and was also done. RESULTS: A total of 132 GIST cases were found and we analyzed mutations in 108 cases. We obtained 53.7% of mutations in exon 11 and 7.4% in exon 9 of c-KIT gene; 12% in exon 18 and 1.9% in exon 12 of PDGFR gene and 25% of cases were wild type GIST. Patients with mutations in exon 11 of the c-KIT gene had a 5-year OS and RS of 59.6% and 66.3%, respectively. Patients with mutations in exon 18 of the PDGFR gene had a 5-year OS and RS of 84.6% and 89.7%. In multivariate analysis, only age and risk group achieved statistical significance for observed survival. GIST patients had an increased risk of second cancer with a hazard ratio of 2.47. CONCLUSIONS: This population-based study shows a spectrum of mutations in the c-KIT and PDGFR genes in GIST patients similar to that previously published. The OS and RS of GIST with the exon 18 PDGFR gene mutation could indicate that this subgroup of patients may be less aggressive and have a good prognosis, although less sensitive to treatment at recurrence. In our study, GIST patients have an increased risk of developing a second neoplasm.

Estimating cure and risk of death from other causes of cancer patients: EUROCARE-6 data on head & neck, colorectal, and breast cancers.

BACKGROUND: To estimate net survival and cancer cure fraction (CF), i.e. the proportion of patients no longer at risk of dying from cancer progression/relapse, a clear distinction needs to be made between mortality from cancer and from other causes. Conventionally, CF is estimated assuming no excess mortality compared to the general population. METHODS: A new modelling approach, that corrects for patients' extra risk of dying (RR) from causes other than the diagnosed cancer, was considered to estimate both indicators. We analysed EUROCARE-6 data on head and neck (H&N), colorectal, and breast cancer patients aged 40-79, diagnosed from 1998 to 2002 and followed-up to 31/12/2014, provided by 65 European cancer registries. FINDINGS: Young male H&N cancer patients have 4 times the risk of dying from other causes than their peers, this risk decreases with age to 1.6. Similar results were observed for female. We observed an absolute increase in CF of 30 % using the new model instead of the conventional one. For colorectal cancer, CF with the new model increased by a maximum of 3 % for older patients and the RR ranged from 1 to 1.2 for both sexes. CF of female breast cancer ranged from 73 % to 79 % using the new cure model, with RR between 1.2 and 1.4. INTERPRETATION: Not considering a RR> 1 leads to underestimate the proportion of patients not bound to die of their diagnosed cancer. Estimates of cancer mortality risk have an important impact on patients' quality of life.

Predictions of survival up to 10 years after diagnosis for European women with breast cancer in 2000-2002.

Few studies have addressed longer-term survival for breast cancer in European women. We have made predictions of 10-year survival for European women diagnosed with breast cancer in 2000-2002. Data for 114,312 adult women (15-99 years) diagnosed with a first primary malignant cancer of the breast during 2000-2002 were collected in the EUROCARE-4 study from 24 population-based cancer registries in 14 European countries. We estimated relative survival at 1, 5, and 10 years after diagnosis for women who were alive at some point during 2000-2002, using the period approach. We also estimated 10-year survival conditional on survival to 1 and 5 years after diagnosis. Ten-year survival exceeded 70% in most regions, but was only 54% in Eastern Europe, with the highest value in Northern Europe (about 75%). Ten-year survival conditional on survival for 1 year was 2-6% higher than 10-year survival in all European regions, and geographic differences were smaller. Ten-year survival for women who survived at least 5 years was 88% overall, with the lowest figure in Eastern Europe (79%) and the highest in the UK (91%). Women aged 50-69 years had higher overall survival than older and younger women (79%). Six cancer registries had adequate information on stage at diagnosis; in these jurisdictions, 10-year survival was 89% for local, 62% for regional and 10% for metastatic disease. Data on stage are not collected routinely or consistently, yet these data are essential for meaningful comparison of population-based survival, which provides vital information for improving breast cancer control.

REGSTATTOOLS: freeware statistical tools for the analysis of disease population databases used in health and social studies.

BACKGROUND: The repertoire of statistical methods dealing with the descriptive analysis of the burden of a disease has been expanded and implemented in statistical software packages during the last years. The purpose of this paper is to present a web-based tool, REGSTATTOOLShttp://regstattools.net intended to provide analysis for the burden of cancer, or other group of disease registry data. Three software applications are included in REGSTATTOOLS: SART (analysis of disease's rates and its time trends), RiskDiff (analysis of percent changes in the rates due to demographic factors and risk of developing or dying from a disease) and WAERS (relative survival analysis). RESULTS: We show a real-data application through the assessment of the burden of tobacco-related cancer incidence in two Spanish regions in the period 1995-2004. Making use of SART we show that lung cancer is the most common cancer among those cancers, with rising trends in incidence among women. We compared 2000-2004 data with that of 1995-1999 to assess percent changes in the number of cases as well as relative survival using RiskDiff and WAERS, respectively. We show that the net change increase in lung cancer cases among women was mainly attributable to an increased risk of developing lung cancer, whereas in men it is attributable to the increase in population size. Among men, lung cancer relative survival was higher in 2000-2004 than in 1995-1999, whereas it was similar among women when these time periods were compared. CONCLUSIONS: Unlike other similar applications, REGSTATTOOLS does not require local software installation and it is simple to use, fast and easy to interpret. It is a set of web-based statistical tools intended for automated calculation of population indicators that any professional in health or social sciences may require.

Childhood and Adolescent Central Nervous System Tumours in Spain: Incidence and Survival over 20 Years: A Historical Baseline for Current Assessment.

BACKGROUND: Central nervous system (CNS) neoplasms are highly frequent solid tumours in children and adolescents. While some studies have shown a rise in their incidence in Europe, others have not. Survival remains limited. We addressed two questions about these tumours in Spain: (1) Is incidence increasing? and (2) Has survival improved? METHODS: This population-based study included 1635 children and 328 adolescents from 11 population-based cancer registries with International Classification of Childhood Cancer Group III tumours, incident in 1983-2007. Age-specific and age-standardised (world population) incidence rates (ASRws) were calculated. Incidence time trends were characterised using annual percent change (APC) obtained with Joinpoint. Cases from 1991 to 2005 (1171) were included in Kaplan-Meier survival analyses, and the results were evaluated with log-rank and log-rank for trend tests. Children's survival was age-standardised using: (1) the age distribution of cases and the corresponding trends assessed with Joinpoint; and (2) European weights for comparison with Europe. RESULTS: ASRw 1983-2007: children: 32.7 cases/106; adolescents: 23.5 cases/106. The overall incidence of all tumours increased across 1983-2007 in children and adolescents. Considering change points, the APCs were: (1) children: 1983-1993, 4.3%^ (1.1; 7.7); 1993-2007, -0.2% (-1.9; 1.6); (2) adolescents: 1983-2004: 2.9%^ (0.9; 4.9); 2004-2007: -7.7% (-40; 41.9). For malignant tumours, the trends were not significant. 5-year survival was 65% (1991-2005), with no significant trends (except for non-malignant tumours). CONCLUSIONS: CNS tumour incidence in Spain was found to be similar to that in Europe. Rises in incidence may be mostly attributable to changes in the registration of non-malignant tumours. The overall malignant CNS tumour trend was compatible with reports for Southern Europe. Survival was lower than in Europe, without improvement over time. We provide a baseline for assessing current paediatric oncology achievements and incidence in respect of childhood and adolescent CNS tumours.

Incidence and time trends of childhood hematological neoplasms: a 36-year population-based study in the southern European context, 1983-2018.

Background: Hematological neoplasms (HNs) are the first and most common childhood cancers globally. Currently, there is a lack of updated population-based data on the incidence of these cancers in the Spanish pediatric population. This study aimed to describe the incidence and incidence trends of HNs in children (0-14 years) in Spain using data from the Spanish Network of Cancer Registries and to compare the results with other southern European countries. Methods: Data were extracted from 15 Spanish population-based cancer registries between 1983 and 2018. Cases were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third edition, first revision, and grouped according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer, third edition. Crude rates (CRs), age-specific rates, and age-standardized incidence rates using the 2013 European population (ASRE) were calculated and expressed as cases per 1,000,000 child-years. Incidence trends and annual percentage changes (APCs) were estimated. Results: A total of 4,747 HNs were recorded (59.5% boys). Age distribution [n (%)] was as follows: <1 year, 266 (5.6%); 1-4 years, 1,726 (36.4%); 5-9 years, 1,442 (30.4%); and 10-14 years, 1,313 (27.6%). Leukemias were the most common group, with a CR and an ASRE of 44.0 (95%CI: 42.5; 45.5) and 44.1 (95%CI: 42.6; 45.7), respectively. The CR and ASRE of lymphomas were 20.1 (95%CI: 19.1; 21.1) and 20.0 (95%CI: 19.0; 21.1), respectively. The comparable incidence rates between our results and those of other southern European countries were similar for lymphomas, while some differences were observed for leukemias. From 1988 to 2016, the trend in leukemia incidence was stable for both sexes, with an APC of 0.0 (95%CI: -0.5; 0.7), whereas a constant overall increase was observed for lymphoma in both sexes, with an APC of 1.0 (95%CI: 0.4; 1.6). Conclusion: Leukemias are the most common HNs in children, and their incidence has remained stable since 1988, whereas the incidence of lymphomas has increased every year. Lymphoma incidence is like that of other southern European countries, while leukemia incidence is similar only to that of southwestern European countries. Collaborative cancer registry projects allow for assessing epidemiological indicators for cancers such as HNs, which helps health authorities and clinicians provide more knowledge about these malignancies.

Bayesian approach to predicting cancer incidence for an area without cancer registration by using cancer incidence data from nearby areas.

This paper compares three different methods for performing cancer incidence prediction in an area without a cancer registry under a Bayesian framework, using linear and log-linear age-period models with either age-specific slopes or a common slope across age groups. The three methods assume that a nearby area with a cancer registration has similar incidence and mortality patterns as the area of interest without a cancer registry where the cancer incidence prediction is carried out. The three methods differ in modeling strategies: (i) modeling the incidence rate directly; (ii) modeling the ratio of the number of incident cases to that of mortality cases; and (iii) modeling the difference between the incidence rate and the mortality rate. Strategy (iii) is a new approach in this type of projection. Empirical assessment is made using real data from the cancer registry of Tarragona, Spain, to predict cancer incidence in Girona, Spain, and vice versa. Predictions of short-term (3-4 years) incidence were made for 2001 in Tarragona using observed cancer incidence and mortality data for 1994-1998 from Girona. Short-term predictions were made for 2002 in Girona using Tarragona's 1994-1998 data. Additionally, long-term (10 years) incidence rate predictions were made for 2002 in Girona using data from Tarragona for the period 1985-1992. Our results suggest that extrapolating time-trends of incidence rates minus mortality rates may have the best predictive performance overall. These methods of population-level disease-incidence prediction are highly relevant to health care planning and policy decisions.

Effect of false-positive results on reattendance at breast cancer screening programmes in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Mammography is the only breast screening method, we are aware of today, which is able to reduce mortality from breast cancer. Nevertheless, this procedure carries an inherent risk of false-positive screening mammogram. The association between these results and reattendance at the next scheduled screening mammogram is controversial. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of a false-positive screening mammogram and women's characteristics on reattendance in eight regional population-based breast cancer screening programmes in Spain. METHODS: This study included 1 383 032 women aged 44-67 years who were initially screened for breast cancer between 1990 and 2004. To investigate factors associated with reattendance, logistic regression models were used. RESULTS: The mean age of women at first screening was 53.6 years (SD = 6.1 years). Of 120 800 women with a false-positive screening mammogram, 78.3% returned for a subsequent screening mammogram compared with 81.9% of those with a negative result (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that women with a false-positive result at first screening mammogram were less likely to reattend (OR = 0.71; 95% CI 0.70-0.73) and that the likelihood was lower in those who had undergone invasive additional tests (OR = 0.56; 95% CI 0.53-0.59). CONCLUSION: A false-positive screening mammogram in the first screening negatively affected attendance at the subsequent screening. The results of this study could be useful to improve the screening process and to increase women's compliance.

Registration of Urothelial Tumours in Cancer Registries: How to Improve and Make It More Useful?

Due to the differences in the definition, criteria of inclusion and coding of urothelial tumours (UTs), data of different cancer registries (CRs) are not comparable. The aim of this work is to study current practices of registration of UT in the European CR of the GRELL countries in order to propose new registration rules to correctly describe incidence and survival of progressive tumours like UT. A questionnaire was sent to 91 CRs to assess whether non-invasive (NI)UT, multiple UTs, UTs occurring outside or before the operating period and time between UTs are currently considered in tumour recording and reporting. All participating CRs (n = 42) record a NI bladder UT in sole occurrence. In case of progressive bladder UT, 98% of the CRs record at least one NIUT but 19% don't record the invasive progression. 17% of the CRs don't record an invasive pelvic tumour that occurs after a NI bladder UT. 19% of the CRs don't record an invasive bladder UT that followed a NI tumour occurring outside the zone or period of time. The recording of two synchronous UTs is carried out with a grouping topography for 36% of the CRs. The same analysis conducted on the reporting of the incidence of UT also shows heterogeneity. We conclude that there is an urgent need to define clear rules for the registration of UT.

The 2022 ENCR Recommendations on recording and reporting of urothelial tumours of the urinary tract.

An updated European Network of Cancer registries (ENCR) Recommendations on Recording and Reporting of Urothelial Tumours of the Urinary Tract had been published in 2022. After the publication by the ENCR of the "Recommendations for coding bladder cancers" in 1995, knowledge about the biology and pathology of urinary tract tumors and their classification has varied and increased substantially. On the other hand, several studies have shown that cancer registries use different definitions, criteria for inclusion and coding of urothelial tumors. This great variability among registries affects not only the criteria for recording (registration, coding and classification) but also the criteria of reporting (counting in the statistics of incidence and survival) urinary tract tumors. This causes difficulties in the data comparability from different registries. Recording and reporting of urothelial tumors requires the application of standard criteria that must take into account the combination of the multiple aspects as the primary topography, the histological type, the grade, the extent of invasion, the multi-centricity, the progressions and the time interval between tumors. This led to the creation of a Working Group of the ENCR that developed these recommendations on the recording and reporting of urothelial tumors of the urinary tract. This article reports these recommendations and the rationale for each.

Using population-based data to evaluate the impact of adherence to endocrine therapy on survival in breast cancer through the web-application BreCanSurvPred.

We show how the use and interpretation of population-based cancer survival indicators can help oncologists talk with breast cancer (BC) patients about the relationship between their prognosis and their adherence to endocrine therapy (ET). The study population comprised a population-based cohort of estrogen receptor positive BC patients (N = 1268) diagnosed in Girona and Tarragona (Northeastern Spain) and classified according to HER2 status (+ / -), stage at diagnosis (I/II/III) and five-year cumulative adherence rate (adherent > 80%; non-adherent ≤ 80%). Cox regression analysis was performed to identify significant prognostic factors for overall survival, whereas relative survival (RS) was used to estimate the crude probability of death due to BC (PBC). Stage and adherence to ET were the significant factors for predicting all-cause mortality. Compared to stage I, risk of death increased in stage II (hazard ratio [HR] 2.24, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.51-3.30) and stage III (HR 5.11, 95% CI 3.46-7.51), and it decreased with adherence to ET (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.41-0.59). PBC differences were higher in non-adherent patients compared to adherent ones and increased across stages: stage I: 6.61% (95% CI 0.05-13.20); stage II: 9.77% (95% CI 0.59-19.01), and stage III: 22.31% (95% CI 6.34-38.45). The age-adjusted survival curves derived from this modeling were implemented in the web application BreCanSurvPred ( https://pdocomputation.snpstats.net/BreCanSurvPred ). Web applications like BreCanSurvPred can help oncologists discuss the consequences of non-adherence to prescribed ET with patients.

No Excess Mortality up to 10 Years in Early Stages of Breast Cancer in Women Adherent to Oral Endocrine Therapy: A Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Approach.

Breast cancer (BC) is globally the most frequent cancer in women. Adherence to endocrine therapy (ET) in hormone-receptor-positive BC patients is active and voluntary for the first five years after diagnosis. This study examines the impact of adherence to ET on 10-year excess mortality (EM) in patients diagnosed with Stages I to III BC (N = 2297). Since sample size is an issue for estimating age- and stage-specific survival indicators, we developed a method, ComSynSurData, for generating a large synthetic dataset (SynD) through probabilistic graphical modeling of the original cohort. We derived population-based survival indicators using a Bayesian relative survival model fitted to the SynD. Our modeling showed that hormone-receptor-positive BC patients diagnosed beyond 49 years of age at Stage I or beyond 59 years at Stage II do not have 10-year EM if they follow the prescribed ET regimen. This result calls for developing interventions to promote adherence to ET in patients with hormone receptor-positive BC and in turn improving cancer survival. The presented methodology here demonstrates the potential use of probabilistic graphical modeling for generating reliable synthetic datasets for validating population-based survival indicators when sample size is an issue.

Ten-Year Probabilities of Death Due to Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease among Breast Cancer Patients Diagnosed in North-Eastern Spain.

Mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD), second tumours, and other causes is of clinical interest in the long-term follow-up of breast cancer (BC) patients. Using a cohort of BC patients (N = 6758) from the cancer registries of Girona and Tarragona (north-eastern Spain), we studied the 10-year probabilities of death due to BC, other cancers, and CVD according to stage at diagnosis and hormone receptor (HR) status. Among the non-BC causes of death (N = 720), CVD (N = 218) surpassed other cancers (N = 196). The BC cohort presented a significantly higher risk of death due to endometrial and ovarian cancers than the general population. In Stage I, HR- patients showed a 1.72-fold higher probability of all-cause death and a 6.11-fold higher probability of breast cancer death than HR+ patients. In Stages II-III, the probability of CVD death (range 3.11% to 3.86%) surpassed that of other cancers (range 0.54% to 3.11%). In Stage IV patients, the probability of death from any cancer drove the mortality risk. Promoting screening and preventive measures in BC patients are warranted, since long-term control should encompass early detection of second neoplasms, ruling out the possibility of late recurrence. In patients diagnosed in Stages II-III at an older age, surveillance for preventing late cardiotoxicity is crucial.

Predicting Ovarian-Cancer Burden in Catalonia by 2030: An Age-Period-Cohort Modelling.

Ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynaecological cancer in very-high-human-development-index regions. Ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates are estimated to globally rise by 2035, although incidence and mortality rates depend on the region and prevalence of the associated risk factors. The aim of this study is to assess changes in incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in Catalonia by 2030. Bayesian autoregressive age-period-cohort models were used to predict the burden of OC incidence and mortality rates for the 2015-2030 period. Incidence and mortality rates of ovarian cancer are expected to decline in Catalonia by 2030 in women ≥ 45 years of age. A decrease in ovarian-cancer risk was observed with increasing year of birth, with a rebound in women born in the 1980s. A decrease in mortality was observed for the period of diagnosis and period of death. Nevertheless, ovarian-cancer mortality remains higher among older women compared to other age groups. Our study summarizes the most plausible scenario for ovarian-cancer changes in terms of incidence and mortality in Catalonia by 2030, which may be of interest from a public health perspective for policy implementation.

Cancer Survival in Adults in Spain: A Population-Based Study of the Spanish Network of Cancer Registries (REDECAN).

The assessment of cancer survival at the population level is essential for monitoring progress in cancer control. We aimed to assess cancer survival and its trends in adults in Spain. Individual records of 601,250 adults with primary cancer diagnosed during 2002-2013 and followed up to 2015 were included from 13 population-based cancer registries. We estimated net survival up to five years after diagnosis and analyzed absolute changes between 2002-2007 and 2008-2013. Estimates were age-standardized. Analyses were performed for 29 cancer groups, by age and sex. Overall, age-standardized five-year net survival was higher in women (61.7%, 95% CI 61.4-62.1%) than in men (55.3%, 95% CI 55.0-55.6%), and ranged by cancer from 7.2% (pancreas) to 89.6% (prostate) in men, and from 10.0% (pancreas) to 93.1% (thyroid) in women in the last period. Survival declined with age, showing different patterns by cancer. Between both periods, age-standardized five-year net survival increased overall by 3.3% (95% CI 3.0-3.7%) in men and 2.5% (95% CI 2.0-3.0%) in women, and for most cancer groups. Improvements were greater in patients younger than 75 years than in older patients. Chronic myeloid leukemia and myeloma showed the largest increases. Among the most common malignancies, the greatest absolute increases in survival were observed for colon (5.0%, 95% CI 4.0-6.0%) and rectal cancers (4.5%, 95% CI 3.2-5.9%). Survival improved even for some cancers with poor prognosis (pancreas, esophagus, lung, liver, and brain cancer). Further investigation of possible sociodemographic inequalities is warranted. This study contributes to the evaluation of cancer control and health services' effectiveness.

Incidence and survival of lymphoid neoplasms in Spain, 2002-2013: A population-based study from the Spanish Network of Cancer Registries (REDECAN).

Introduction: The aim of this study was to describe incidence, incidence trends and survival patterns of lymphoid neoplasms (LNs) and its subtypes in Spain in the period 2002-2013 using data from the Spanish Network of Cancer Registries (REDECAN). Materials and Methods: Data were extracted from 13 Spanish population-based cancer registries. LNs incident cases were codified using the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third edition (ICD-O-3) and grouped according to the WHO 2008 classification. Age-standardized incidence rates to the 2013 European standard population (ASIRe) were obtained. Poisson regression models were used to analyze trends in incidence rates and estimate the annual percentage change (APC) for each subtype. The number of cases in Spain for 2023 was estimated by applying the estimated age-specific rates for the year 2023 to the 2023 Spanish population. Observed survival (OS) was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and net survival (NS) by the Pohar-Perme method. Sex- and age-specific estimates of 5-year NS were calculated, as well as its changes according to two periods of diagnosis (2002-2007 and 2008-2013). Results: LNs accounted for 69% (n=39,156) of all hematological malignancies (n=56,751) diagnosed during the period of study. Median age at diagnosis was 67 years (interquartile range (IQR) = 52-77). The overall ASIRe was 34.23 (95% confidence interval (CI): 33.89, 34.57) and showed a marked male predominance in almost all subtypes (global sex ratio = 1.45). During the study period, incidence trends of LNs remained stable (APC: 0.3; 95% CI: -0.1, 0.6), nevertheless some subtypes showed statistically significant variations, such as LNs NOS category (APC: -5.6; 95% CI: -6.8, -4.3). Around 17,926 new cases of LNs will be diagnosed in 2023 in Spain. Survival rates differed considerably across age-groups, while they were similar between men and women. Five- year NS was 62.81% (95% CI: 62.1, 63.52) for all LNs, and varied widely across LNs subtypes, ranging from 39.21% to 90.25%. NS for all LNs improved from the first period of diagnosis to the second one, being 61.57% (95% CI: 60.56, 62.61) in 2002-2007 and 64.17% (95% CI: 63.29, 65.07) in 2008-2013. Conclusions: This study presents the first complete and extensive population-based analysis of LNs incidence and survival in Spain. These population-based data provide relevant information to better understand the epidemiology of LNs in Southern Europe and it features some useful points for public health authorities and clinicians. However, additional improvements regarding the registration of these hematological neoplasms can be implemented.

Proportion and stage distribution of screen-detected and non-screen-detected colorectal cancer in nine European countries: an international, population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The effects of recently implemented colorectal cancer screening programmes in Europe on colorectal cancer mortality will take several years to be fully known. We aimed to analyse the characteristics and parameters of screening programmes, proportions of colorectal cancers detected through screening, and stage distribution in screen-detected and non-screen-detected colorectal cancers to provide a timely assessment of the potential effects of screening programmes in several European countries. METHODS: We conducted this population-based study in nine European countries for which data on mode of detection were available (Belgium, Denmark, England, France, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain). Data from 16 population-based cancer registries were included. Patients were included if they were diagnosed with colorectal cancer from the year that organised colorectal cancer screening programmes were implemented in each country until the latest year with available data at the time of analysis, and if their age at diagnosis fell within the age groups targeted by the programmes. Data collected included sex, age at diagnosis, date of diagnosis, topography, morphology, clinical and pathological TNM information based on the edition in place at time of diagnosis, and mode of detection (ie, screen detected or non-screen detected). If stage information was not available, patients were not included in stage-specific analyses. The primary outcome was proportion and stage distribution of screen-detected versus non-screen detected colorectal cancers. FINDINGS: 228 667 colorectal cancer cases were included in the analyses. Proportions of screen-detected cancers varied widely across countries and regions. The highest proportions (40-60%) were found in Slovenia and the Basque Country in Spain, where FIT-based programmes were fully rolled out, and participation rates were higher than 50%. A similar proportion of screen-detected cancers was also found for the Netherlands in 2015, where participation was over 70%, even though the programme had not yet been fully rolled out to all age groups. In most other countries and regions, proportions of screen-detected cancers were below 30%. Compared with non-screen-detected cancers, screen-detected cancers were much more often found in the distal colon (range 34·5-51·1% screen detected vs 26·4-35·7% non-screen detected) and less often in the proximal colon (19·5-29·9% screen detected vs 24·9-32·8% non-screen detected) p≤0·02 for each country, more often at stage I (35·7-52·7% screen detected vs 13·2-24·9% non-screen detected), and less often at stage IV (5·8-12·5% screen detected vs 22·5-31·9% non-screen detected) p<0·0001 for each country. INTERPRETATION: The proportion of colorectal cancer cases detected by screening varied widely between countries. However, in all countries, screen-detected cancers had a more favourable stage distribution than cancers detected otherwise. There is still much need and scope for improving early detection of cancer across all segments of the colorectum, and particularly in the proximal colon and rectum. FUNDING: Deutsche Krebshilfe.