Accelerated river avulsion frequency on lowland deltas due to sea-level rise.

Sea-level rise, subsidence, and reduced fluvial sediment supply are causing river deltas to drown worldwide, affecting ecosystems and billions of people. Abrupt changes in river course, called avulsions, naturally nourish sinking land with sediment; however, they also create catastrophic flood hazards. Existing observations and models conflict on whether the occurrence of avulsions will change due to relative sea-level rise, hampering the ability to forecast delta response to global climate change. Here, we combined theory, numerical modeling, and field observations to develop a mechanistic framework to predict avulsion frequency on deltas with multiple self-formed lobes that scale with backwater hydrodynamics. Results show that avulsion frequency is controlled by the competition between relative sea-level rise and sediment supply that drives lobe progradation. We find that most large deltas are experiencing sufficiently low progradation rates such that relative sea-level rise enhances aggradation rates-accelerating avulsion frequency and associated hazards compared to preindustrial conditions. Some deltas may face even greater risk; if relative sea-level rise significantly outpaces sediment supply, then avulsion frequency is maximized, delta plains drown, and avulsion locations shift inland, posing new hazards to upstream communities. Results indicate that managed deltas can support more frequent engineered avulsions to recover sinking land; however, there is a threshold beyond which coastal land will be lost, and mitigation efforts should shift upstream.

Low-gradient, single-threaded rivers prior to greening of the continents.

The Silurian-age rise of land plants is hypothesized to have caused a global revolution in the mechanics of rivers. In the absence of vegetation-controlled bank stabilization effects, pre-Silurian rivers are thought to be characterized by shallow, multithreaded flows, and steep river gradients. This hypothesis, however, is at odds with the pancontinental scale of early Neoproterozoic river systems that would have necessitated extraordinarily high mountains if such river gradients were commonplace at continental scale, which is inconsistent with constraints on lithospheric thickness. To reconcile these observations, we generated estimates of paleogradients and morphologies of pre-Silurian rivers using a well-developed quantitative framework based on the formation of river bars and dunes. We combined data from previous work with original field measurements of the scale, texture, and structure of fluvial deposits in Proterozoic-age Torridonian Group, Scotland-a type-example of pancontinental, prevegetation fluvial systems. Results showed that these rivers were low sloping (gradients 10-5 to 10-4), relatively deep (4 to 15 m), and had morphology similar to modern, lowland rivers. Our results provide mechanistic evidence for the abundance of low gradient, single-threaded rivers in the Proterozoic eon, at a time well before the evolution and radiation of land plants-despite the absence of muddy and vegetated floodplains. Single-threaded rivers with stable floodplains appear to have been a persistent feature of our planet despite singular changes in its terrestrial biota.

Where rivers jump course.

Rivers can abruptly shift pathways in rare events called avulsions, which cause devastating floods. The controls on avulsion locations are poorly understood as a result of sparse data on such features. We analyzed nearly 50 years of satellite imagery and documented 113 avulsions across the globe that indicate three distinct controls on avulsion location. Avulsions on fans coincide with valley-confinement change, whereas avulsions on deltas are primarily clustered within the backwater zone, indicating a control by spatial flow deceleration or acceleration during floods. However, 38% of avulsions on deltas occurred upstream of backwater effects. These events occurred in steep, sediment-rich rivers in tropical and desert environments. Our results indicate that avulsion location on deltas is set by the upstream extent of flood-driven erosion, which is typically limited to the backwater zone but can extend far upstream in steep, sediment-laden rivers. Our findings elucidate how avulsion hazards might respond to land use and climate change.

Early plant organics increased global terrestrial mud deposition through enhanced flocculation.

An irreversible increase in alluvial mudrock occurred with the Ordovician-Silurian evolution of bryophytes, challenging a paradigm that deep-rooted plants were responsible for this landscape shift. We tested the idea that increased primary production and plant organics promoted aggregation of clay into flocs in rivers and facilitated mud deposition on floodplains. In experiments, we observed that clay readily flocculated for organic and clay concentrations common to modern rivers, yielding settling velocities three orders of magnitude larger than those without organics. Using a transport model, we found that flocculation substantially increased mud deposition, resulting in muddier floodplains. Thus, organic-induced flocculation may have been more critical than deep-rooted plants in the proliferation of muddy floodplains.

Subordinated Brownian motion model for sediment transport.

Following the introduction of the Brownian motion model for sediment transport by Einstein, several stochastic models have been explored in the literature motivated by the need to reproduce the observed non-Gaussian probability density functions (PDFs) of the sediment transport rates observed in laboratory experiments. Recent studies have presented evidence that PDFs of bed elevation and sediment transport rates depend on time scale (sampling time), but this dependence is not accounted for in any previous stochastic models. Here we propose an extension of Brownian motion, called fractional Laplace motion, as a model for sediment transport which acknowledges the fact that the time over which the gravel particles are in motion is in itself a random variable. We show that this model reproduces the multiscale statistics of sediment transport rates as quantified via a large-scale laboratory experiment.

Experimental river delta size set by multiple floods and backwater hydrodynamics.

River deltas worldwide are currently under threat of drowning and destruction by sea-level rise, subsidence, and oceanic storms, highlighting the need to quantify their growth processes. Deltas are built through construction of sediment lobes, and emerging theories suggest that the size of delta lobes scales with backwater hydrodynamics, but these ideas are difficult to test on natural deltas that evolve slowly. We show results of the first laboratory delta built through successive deposition of lobes that maintain a constant size. We show that the characteristic size of delta lobes emerges because of a preferential avulsion node-the location where the river course periodically and abruptly shifts-that remains fixed spatially relative to the prograding shoreline. The preferential avulsion node in our experiments is a consequence of multiple river floods and Froude-subcritical flows that produce persistent nonuniform flows and a peak in net channel deposition within the backwater zone of the coastal river. In contrast, experimental deltas without multiple floods produce flows with uniform velocities and delta lobes that lack a characteristic size. Results have broad applications to sustainable management of deltas and for decoding their stratigraphic record on Earth and Mars.

Time scale bias in erosion rates of glaciated landscapes.

Deciphering erosion rates over geologic time is fundamental for understanding the interplay between climate, tectonic, and erosional processes. Existing techniques integrate erosion over different time scales, and direct comparison of such rates is routinely done in earth science. On the basis of a global compilation, we show that erosion rate estimates in glaciated landscapes may be affected by a systematic averaging bias that produces higher estimated erosion rates toward the present, which do not reflect straightforward changes in erosion rates through time. This trend can result from a heavy-tailed distribution of erosional hiatuses (that is, time periods where no or relatively slow erosion occurs). We argue that such a distribution can result from the intermittency of erosional processes in glaciated landscapes that are tightly coupled to climate variability from decadal to millennial time scales. In contrast, we find no evidence for a time scale bias in spatially averaged erosion rates of landscapes dominated by river incision. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of the proposed coupling between climate and tectonics, and interpreting erosion rate estimates with different averaging time scales through geologic time.

Quantitative bounds on morphodynamics and implications for reading the sedimentary record.

Sedimentary rocks are the archives of environmental conditions and ancient planetary surface processes that led to their formation. Reconstructions of Earth's past surface behaviour from the physical sedimentary record remain controversial, however, in part because we lack a quantitative framework to deconvolve internal dynamics of sediment-transport systems from environmental signal preservation. Internal dynamics of landscapes--a consequence of the coupling between bed topography, sediment transport and flow dynamics (morphodynamics)--result in regular and quasiperiodic landforms that abound on the Earth and other planets. Here, using theory and a data compilation of morphodynamic landforms that span a wide range of terrestrial, marine and planetary depositional systems, we show that the advection length for settling sediment sets bounds on the scales over which internal landscape dynamics operate. These bounds provide a universal palaeohydraulic reconstruction tool on planetary surfaces and allow for quantitative identification of depositional systems that may preserve tectonic, climatic and anthropogenic signals.