Development and validation of a gene expression-based signature to predict distant metastasis in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a retrospective, multicentre, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Gene expression patterns can be used as prognostic biomarkers in various types of cancers. We aimed to identify a gene expression pattern for individual distant metastatic risk assessment in patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma. METHODS: In this multicentre, retrospective, cohort analysis, we included 937 patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma from three Chinese hospitals: the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (Guangzhou, China), the Affiliated Hospital of Guilin Medical University (Guilin, China), and the First People's Hospital of Foshan (Foshan, China). Using microarray analysis, we profiled mRNA gene expression between 24 paired locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma tumours from patients at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center with or without distant metastasis after radical treatment. Differentially expressed genes were examined using digital expression profiling in a training cohort (Guangzhou training cohort; n=410) to build a gene classifier using a penalised regression model. We validated the prognostic accuracy of this gene classifier in an internal validation cohort (Guangzhou internal validation cohort, n=204) and two external independent cohorts (Guilin cohort, n=165; Foshan cohort, n=158). The primary endpoint was distant metastasis-free survival. Secondary endpoints were disease-free survival and overall survival. FINDINGS: We identified 137 differentially expressed genes between metastatic and non-metastatic locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma tissues. A distant metastasis gene signature for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (DMGN) that consisted of 13 genes was generated to classify patients into high-risk and low-risk groups in the training cohort. Patients with high-risk scores in the training cohort had shorter distant metastasis-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] 4·93, 95% CI 2·99-8·16; p<0·0001), disease-free survival (HR 3·51, 2·43-5·07; p<0·0001), and overall survival (HR 3·22, 2·18-4·76; p<0·0001) than patients with low-risk scores. The prognostic accuracy of DMGN was validated in the internal and external cohorts. Furthermore, among patients with low-risk scores in the combined training and internal cohorts, concurrent chemotherapy improved distant metastasis-free survival compared with those patients who did not receive concurrent chemotherapy (HR 0·40, 95% CI 0·19-0·83; p=0·011), whereas patients with high-risk scores did not benefit from concurrent chemotherapy (HR 1·03, 0·71-1·50; p=0·876). This was also validated in the two external cohorts combined. We developed a nomogram based on the DMGN and other variables that predicted an individual's risk of distant metastasis, which was strengthened by adding Epstein-Barr virus DNA status. INTERPRETATION: The DMGN is a reliable prognostic tool for distant metastasis in patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma and might be able to predict which patients benefit from concurrent chemotherapy. It has the potential to guide treatment decisions for patients at different risk of distant metastasis. FUNDING: The National Natural Science Foundation of China, the National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period, the Natural Science Foundation of Guang Dong Province, the National Key Research and Development Program of China, the Innovation Team Development Plan of the Ministry of Education, the Health & Medical Collaborative Innovation Project of Guangzhou City, China, and the Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities.

A Gene-Expression Predictor for Efficacy of Induction Chemotherapy in Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Induction chemotherapy (IC) followed by concurrent chemoradiotherapy is the mainstay treatment for patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma. However, some patients obtain little benefit and experience unnecessary toxicities from IC. We intended to develop a gene-expression signature that can identify beneficiaries of IC. METHODS: We screened chemosensitivity-related genes by comparing gene-expression profiles of patients with short-term tumor response or nonresponse to IC (n = 95) using microarray analysis. Chemosensitivity-related genes were quantified by digital expression profiling in a training cohort (n = 342) to obtain a gene signature. We then validated this gene signature in the clinical trial cohort (n = 187) and an external independent cohort (n = 240). Tests of statistical significance are 2-sided. RESULTS: We identified 43 chemosensitivity-related genes associated with the short-term tumor response to IC. In the training cohort, a 6-gene signature was developed that was highly accurate at predicting the short-term tumor response to IC (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.87, sensitivity = 87.5%, specificity = 75.6%). We further found that IC conferred failure-free survival benefits only in patients in the benefit group (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.34 to 0.87; P = .01) and not on those in the no-benefit group (HR = 1.25, 95% CI = 0.62 to 2.51; P = .53). In the clinical trial cohort, the 6-gene signature was also highly accurate at predicting the tumor response (AUC = 0.82, sensitivity = 87.5%, specificity = 71.8%) and indicated failure-free survival benefits. In the external independent cohort, similar results were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The 6-gene signature can help select beneficiaries of IC and lay a foundation for a more individualized therapeutic strategy for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients.