Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios.

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence-together with other global dangers-be usefully synthesized into an "integrated catastrophe assessment"? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.

Niche adaptation by expansion and reprogramming of general transcription factors.

Numerous lineage-specific expansions of the transcription factor B (TFB) family in archaea suggests an important role for expanded TFBs in encoding environment-specific gene regulatory programs. Given the characteristics of hypersaline lakes, the unusually large numbers of TFBs in halophilic archaea further suggests that they might be especially important in rapid adaptation to the challenges of a dynamically changing environment. Motivated by these observations, we have investigated the implications of TFB expansions by correlating sequence variations, regulation, and physical interactions of all seven TFBs in Halobacterium salinarum NRC-1 to their fitness landscapes, functional hierarchies, and genetic interactions across 2488 experiments covering combinatorial variations in salt, pH, temperature, and Cu stress. This systems analysis has revealed an elegant scheme in which completely novel fitness landscapes are generated by gene conversion events that introduce subtle changes to the regulation or physical interactions of duplicated TFBs. Based on these insights, we have introduced a synthetically redesigned TFB and altered the regulation of existing TFBs to illustrate how archaea can rapidly generate novel phenotypes by simply reprogramming their TFB regulatory network.

Symmetric rearrangement of groundwater-fed streams.

Streams shape landscapes through headward growth and lateral migration. When these streams are primarily fed by groundwater, recent work suggests that their tips advance to maximize the symmetry of the local Laplacian field associated with groundwater flow. We explore the extent to which such forcing is responsible for the lateral migration of streams by studying two features of groundwater-fed streams in Bristol, Florida: their confluence angle near junctions and their curvature. First, we find that, while streams asymptotically form a 72° angle near their tips, they simultaneously exhibit a wide 120° confluence angle within approximately 10 m of their junctions. We show that this wide angle maximizes the symmetry of the groundwater field near the junction. Second, we argue that streams migrate laterally within valleys and present a new spectral analysis method to relate planform curvature to the surrounding groundwater field. Our results suggest that streams migrate laterally in response to fluxes from the surrounding groundwater table, providing evidence of a new mechanism that complements Laplacian growth at their tips.