Cardiovascular Death Risk in Recovered Mid-Range Ejection Fraction Heart Failure: Insights From Cardiopulmonary Exercise Test.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure with midrange ejection fraction (HFmrEF) represents a heterogeneous category where phenotype, as well as prognostic assessment, remains debated. The present study explores a specific HFmrEF subset, namely those who recovered from a reduced EF (rec-HFmrEF) and, particularly, it focuses on the possible additive prognostic role of cardiopulmonary exercise testing. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from 4535 patients with HFrEF and 1176 patients with rec-HFmrEF from the Metabolic Exercise combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes database. The end point was cardiovascular death at 5 years. The median follow-up was 1343 days (25th-75th range 627-2403 days). Cardiovascular death occurred in 552 HFrEF and 61 rec-HFmrEF patients. The multivariate analysis confirmed an independent role of the MECKI score's variables in HFrEF (C-index = 0.744) whereas, in the rec-HFmrEF group, only age and peak oxygen uptake (pVO2) remained associated to the end point (C-index = 0.745). A peak oxygen uptake of ≤55% of predicted and a ventilatory efficiency of ≥31 resulted as the most accurate cut-off values in the outcome prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Present data support the cardiopulmonary exercise test and, particularly, the peak oxygen uptake, as a useful tool in the rec-HFmrEF prognostic assessment. A peak VO2 of ≤55% predicted and ventilatory efficiency of ≥31 might help to identify a high-risk rec-HFmrEF subgroup.

Renal function and peak exercise oxygen consumption in chronic heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease is associated with sympathetic activation and muscle abnormalities, which may contribute to decreased exercise capacity. We investigated the correlation of renal function with peak exercise oxygen consumption (V̇O2) in heart failure (HF) patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We recruited 2,938 systolic HF patients who underwent clinical, laboratory, echocardiographic and cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The patients were stratified according to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Mean follow-up was 3.7 years. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death and urgent heart transplantation at 3 years. On multivariable regression, eGFR was predictor of peakV̇O2(P<0.0001). Other predictors were age, sex, body mass index, HF etiology, NYHA class, atrial fibrillation, resting heart rate, B-type natriuretic peptide, hemoglobin, and treatment. After adjusting for significant covariates, the hazard ratio for primary outcome associated with peakV̇O2<12 ml·kg(-1)·min(-1)was 1.75 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-2.91; P=0.0292) in patients with eGFR ≥60, 1.77 (0.87-3.61; P=0.1141) in those with eGFR of 45-59, and 2.72 (1.01-7.37; P=0.0489) in those with eGFR <45 ml·min(-1)·1.73 m(-2). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for peakV̇O2<12 ml·kg(-1)·min(-1)was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.54-0.71), 0.67 (0.56-0.78), and 0.57 (0.47-0.69), respectively. Testing for interaction was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Renal dysfunction is correlated with peakV̇O2. A peakV̇O2cutoff of 12 ml·kg(-1)·min(-1)offers limited prognostic information in HF patients with more severely impaired renal function.

A matter of sex-persistent predictive value of MECKI score prognostic power in men and women with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction: a multicenter study.

Background: A sex-based evaluation of prognosis in heart failure (HF) is lacking. Methods and results: We analyzed the Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score registry, which includes HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) patients. A cross-validation procedure was performed to estimate weights separately for men and women of all MECKI score parameters: left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), hemoglobin, kidney function assessed by Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, blood sodium level, ventilation vs. carbon dioxide production slope, and peak oxygen consumption (peakVO2). The primary outcomes were the composite of all-cause mortality, urgent heart transplant, and implant of a left ventricle assist device. The difference in predictive ability between the native and sex recalibrated MECKI (S-MECKI) was calculated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve at 2 years and a calibration plot. We retrospectively analyzed 7,900 HFrEF patients included in the MECKI score registry (mean age 61 ± 13 years, 6,456 men/1,444 women, mean LVEF 33% ± 10%, mean peakVO2 56.2% ± 17.6% of predicted) with a median follow-up of 4.05 years (range 1.72-7.47). Our results revealed an unadjusted risk of events that was doubled in men compared to women (9.7 vs. 4.1) and a significant difference in weight between the sexes of most of the parameters included in the MECKI score. S-MECKI showed improved risk classification and accuracy (area under the ROC curve: 0.7893 vs. 0.7799, p = 0.02) due to prognostication improvement in the high-risk settings in both sexes (MECKI score >10 in men and >5 in women). Conclusions: S-MECKI, i.e., the recalibrated MECKI according to sex-specific differences, constitutes a further step in the prognostic assessment of patients with severe HFrEF.

The chronic heart failure evolutions: Different fates and routes.

AIMS: Individual prognostic assessment and disease evolution pathways are undefined in chronic heart failure (HF). The application of unsupervised learning methodologies could help to identify patient phenotypes and the progression in each phenotype as well as to assess adverse event risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: From a bulk of 7948 HF patients included in the MECKI registry, we selected patients with a minimum 2-year follow-up. We implemented a topological data analysis (TDA), based on 43 variables derived from clinical, biochemical, cardiac ultrasound, and exercise evaluations, to identify several patients' clusters. Thereafter, we used the trajectory analysis to describe the evolution of HF states, which is able to identify bifurcation points, characterized by different follow-up paths, as well as specific end-stages conditions of the disease. Finally, we conducted a 5-year survival analysis (composite of cardiovascular death, left ventricular assist device, or urgent heart transplant). Findings were validated on internal (n = 527) and external (n = 777) populations. We analyzed 4876 patients (age = 63 [53-71], male gender n = 3973 (81.5%), NYHA class I-II n = 3576 (73.3%), III-IV n = 1300 (26.7%), LVEF = 33 [25.5-39.9], atrial fibrillation n = 791 (16.2%), peak VO2% pred = 54.8 [43.8-67.2]), with a minimum 2-year follow-up. Nineteen patient clusters were identified by TDA. Trajectory analysis revealed a path characterized by 3 bifurcation and 4 end-stage points. Clusters survival rate varied from 44% to 100% at 2 years and from 20% to 100% at 5 years, respectively. The event frequency at 5-year follow-up for each study cohort cluster was successfully compared with those in the validation cohorts (R = 0.94 and R = 0.84, P < 0.001, for internal and external cohort, respectively). Finally, we conducted a 5-year survival analysis (composite of cardiovascular death, left ventricular assist device, or urgent heart transplant observed in 22% of cases). CONCLUSIONS: Each HF phenotype has a specific disease progression and prognosis. These findings allow to individualize HF patient evolutions and to tailor assessment.

International validation of the Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score in heart failure.

AIMS: Current European heart failure (HF) guidelines suggest the use of risk score: among them, the Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score has demonstrated to be one of the most accurate. However, the risk scores are still poorly implemented in clinical practice, also due to the lack of strong evidence regarding their external validation in different populations. Thus, the current study was designed as an external validation test of the MECKI score in an international multicentre setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study cohort consisted of patients diagnosed with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) across international centres (not Italian), retrospectively recruited. Collected data included demographics, HF aetiology, laboratory testing, electrocardiogram (ECG), echocardiographic findings, and cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) results as described in the original MECKI score publication. A total of 1042 patients across 8 international centres (7 European and 1 Asian) were included and followed up from 1998 till 2019. Patients were divided according to the calculated MECKI scores into three subgroups: (i) MECKI score <10%, (ii) 10-20%, and (iii) ≥ 20%. Survival analysis comparison among the three MECKI score subgroups showed a worse prognosis in patients with higher MECKI score value: median event-free survival times were 4396 days for MECKI score <10%, 3457 days for 10-20%, and 1022 days for ≥20% (P < 0.0001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curves (AUC) were like those reported in the original internal validation studies. CONCLUSION: In patients diagnosed with HFrEF, the power of the MECKI score was confirmed in terms of prognosis and risk stratification, supporting its implementation as advised by the HF guidelines.

In patients diagnosed with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, the Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) risk score underwent an external validation. The MECKI score prognostic power was confirmed in a large population of patients from Europe and Asia. These data support MECKI score implementation, as advised by the 2021 European heart failure guidelines.

Does moderate hyperkalemia influence survival in HF? Insights from the MECKI score data base.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic role of moderate hyperkalemia in reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) patients is still controversial. Despite this, it affects the use of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi) with therapy down-titration or discontinuation. OBJECTIVES: Aim of the study was to assess the prognostic impact of moderate hyperkalemia in chronic HFrEF optimally treated patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively analyzed MECKI (Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes) database, with median follow-up of 4.2 [IQR 1.9-7.5] years. Data on K+ levels were available in 7087 cases. Patients with K+ plasma level ≥ 5.6 mEq/L and < 4 mEq/L were excluded. Remaining patients were categorized into normal >4 and < 5 mEq/L (n = 4826, 68%) and moderately high ≥5.0 and ≤ 5.5 mEq/L (n = 496, 7%) K+. Then patients were matched by propensity score in 484 couplets of patients. MECKI score value was 7% [IQR 3.1-14.1%] and 7.3% [IQR 3.4-15%] (p = 0.678) in patients with normal and moderately high K+ values while cardiovascular mortality events at two years follow-up were 41 (4.2%) and 33 (3.4%) (p = 0.333) in each group respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate hyperkalemia does not influence patients' outcome in a large cohort of ambulatory HFrEF patients.

Pick Your Threshold: A Comparison Among Different Methods of Anaerobic Threshold Evaluation in Heart Failure Prognostic Assessment.

BACKGROUND: In clinical practice, anaerobic threshold (AT) is used to guide training and rehabilitation programs, to define risk of major thoracic or abdominal surgery, and to assess prognosis in heart failure (HF). AT of oxygen uptake (V.O2; V.O2AT) has been reported as an absolute value (V.O2ATabs), as a percentage of predicted peak V.O2 (V.O2AT%peak_pred), or as a percentage of observed peak V.O2 (V.O2AT%peak_obs). A direct comparison of the prognostic power among these different ways to report AT is missing. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the prognostic power of these different ways to report AT? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we screened data of 7,746 patients with HF with a history of reduced ejection fraction (< 40%) recruited between 1998 and 2020 and enrolled in the Metabolic Exercise Combined With Cardiac and Kidney Indexes register. All patients underwent a maximum cardiopulmonary exercise test, executed using a ramp protocol on an electronically braked cycle ergometer. RESULTS: This study considered 6,157 patients with HF with identified AT. Follow-up was median, 4.2 years (25th-75th percentiles, 1.9-5.0 years). Both V.O2ATabs (mean ± SD, 823 ± 305 mL/min) and V.O2AT%peak_pred (mean ± SD, 39.6 ± 13.9%), but not V.O2AT%peak_obs (mean ± SD, 69.2 ± 17.7%), well stratified the population regarding prognosis (composite end point: cardiovascular death, urgent heart transplant, or left ventricular assist device). Comparing area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values, V.O2ATabs (0.680) and V.O2AT%peak_pred (0.688) performed similarly, whereas V.O2AT%peak_obs (0.538) was significantly weaker (P < .001). Moreover, the V.O2AT%peak_pred AUC value was the only one performing as well as the AUC based on peak V.O2 (0.710), with an even a higher AUC (0.637 vs 0.618, respectively) in the group with severe HF (peak V.O2 < 12 mL/min/kg). Finally, the combination of V.O2AT%peak_pred with peak V.O2 and V. per CO2 production shows the highest prognostic power. INTERPRETATION: In HF, V.O2AT%peak_pred is the best way to report V.O2 at AT in relationship to prognosis, with a prognostic power comparable to that of peak V.O2 and, remarkably, in patients with severe HF.

Heart failure and anemia: Effects on prognostic variables.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is frequent in heart failure (HF), and it is associated with higher mortality. The predictive power of established HF prognostic parameters in anemic HF patients is unknown. METHODS: Clinical, laboratory, echocardiographic and cardiopulmonary-exercise-test (CPET) data were analyzed in 3913 HF patients grouped according to hemoglobin (Hb) values. 248 (6%), 857 (22%), 2160 (55%) and 648 (17%) patients had very low (<11g/dL), low (11-12 for females, 11-13 for males), normal (12-15 for females, 13-15 for males) and high (>15) Hb, respectively. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 1363days (606-1883). CPETs were always performed safely. Hb was related to prognosis (Hazard ratio (HR)=0.864). No prognostic difference was observed between normal and high Hb groups. Peak oxygen consumption (VO2), ventilatory efficiency (VE/VCO2 slope), plasma sodium concentration, ejection fraction (LVEF), kidney function and Hb were independently related to prognosis in the entire population. Considering Hb groups separately, peakVO2 (very low Hb HR=0.549, low Hb HR=0.613, normal Hb HR=0.618, high Hb HR=0.542) and LVEF (very low Hb HR=0.49, low Hb HR=0.692, normal Hb HR=0.697, high Hb HR=0.694) maintained their prognostic roles. High VE/VCO2 slope was associated with poor prognosis only in patients with low and normal Hb. CONCLUSIONS: Anemic HF patients have a worse prognosis, but CPET can be safely performed. PeakVO2 and LVEF, but not VE/VCO2 slope, maintain their prognostic power also in HF patients with Hb<11g/dL, suggesting CPET use and a multiparametric approach in HF patients with low Hb. However, the prognostic effect of an anemia-oriented follow-up is unknown.

Deceptive meaning of oxygen uptake measured at the anaerobic threshold in patients with systolic heart failure and atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Oxygen uptake at the anaerobic threshold (VO2AT), a submaximal exercise-derived variable, independent of patients' motivation, is a marker of outcome in heart failure (HF). However, previous evidence of VO2AT values paradoxically higher in HF patients with permanent atrial fibrillation (AF) than in those with sinus rhythm (SR) raised uncertainties. DESIGN: We tested the prognostic role of VO2AT in a large cohort of systolic HF patients, focusing on possible differences between SR and AF. METHODS: Altogether 2976 HF patients (2578 with SR and 398 with AF) were prospectively followed. Besides a clinical examination, each patient underwent a maximal cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET). RESULTS: The follow-up was analysed for up to 1500 days. Cardiovascular death or urgent cardiac transplantation occurred in 303 patients (250 (9.6%) patients with SR and 53 (13.3%) patients with AF, p = 0.023). In the entire population, multivariate analysis including peak oxygen uptake (VO2) showed a prognostic capacity (C-index) similar to that obtained including VO2AT (0.76 vs 0.72). Also, left ventricular ejection fraction, ventilation vs carbon dioxide production slope, ß-blocker and digoxin therapy proved to be significant prognostic indexes. The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis showed that the best predictive VO2AT cut-off for the SR group was 11.7 ml/kg/min, while it was 12.8 ml/kg/min for the AF group. CONCLUSIONS: VO2AT, a submaximal CPET-derived parameter, is reliable for long-term cardiovascular mortality prognostication in stable systolic HF. However, different VO2AT cut-off values between SR and AF HF patients should be adopted.

Prognostic role of atrial fibrillation in patients affected by chronic heart failure. Data from the MECKI score research group.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in heart failure (HF). It is unclear whether AF has an independent prognostic role in HF. The aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic role of AF in HF patients with reduced ejection fraction (EF). METHODS: HF patients were followed in 17 centers for 3.15years (1.51-5.24). Study endpoints were the composite of cardiovascular (CV) death and heart transplant (HTX) and all-cause death. Data analysis was performed considering the entire population and a 1 to 1 match between sinus rhythm (SR) and AF patients. Match process was done for age±5, gender, left ventricle EF±5, peakVO2±3 (ml/min/kg) and recruiting center. RESULTS: A total of 3447 patients (SR=2882, AF=565) were included in the study. Considering the entire population, CV death and HTX occurred in 114 (20%) AF vs. 471 (16%) SR (p=0.026) and all-cause death in 130 (23%) AF vs. 554 (19.2%) SR patients (p=0.039). At univariable Cox analysis, AF was significantly related to prognosis. Applying a multivariable model based on all variables significant at univariable analysis (EF, peakVO2, ventilation/carbon dioxide relationship slope, sodium, kidney function, hemoglobin, beta-blockers and digoxin) AF was no longer associated with adverse outcomes. Matching procedure resulted in 338 couples. CV death and HTX occurred in 63 (18.6%) AF vs. 74 (21.9%) SR (p=0.293) and all-cause death in 71 (21%) AF vs. 80 (23.6%) SR (p=0.406), with no survival differences between groups. CONCLUSION: In systolic HF AF is a marker of disease severity but not an independent prognostic indicator.