Decline of Tuberculosis Burden in Vietnam Measured by Consecutive National Surveys, 2007-2017.

Vietnam, a high tuberculosis (TB) burden country, conducted national TB prevalence surveys in 2007 and 2017. In both surveys participants were screened by using a questionnaire and chest radiograph; sputum samples were then collected to test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis by smear microscopy and Löwenstein-Jensen culture. Culture-positive, smear-positive, and smear-negative TB cases were defined by laboratory results, and the prevalence of tuberculosis was compared between the 2 surveys. The results showed prevalence of culture-positive TB decreased by 37% (95% CI 11.5%-55.4%), from 199 (95% CI 160-248) cases/100,000 adults in 2007 to 125 (95% CI 98-159) cases/100,000 adults in 2017. Prevalence of smear-positive TB dropped by 53% (95% CI 27.0%-69.7%), from 99 (95% CI 78-125) cases/100,000 adults to 46 (95% CI 32-68) cases/100,000 adults; smear-negative TB showed no substantial decrease. Replacing microscopy with molecular methods for primary diagnostics might enhance diagnosis of pulmonary TB cases and further lower TB burden.

Epidemiology of Tuberculosis and Progress Toward Meeting Global Targets - Worldwide, 2019.

Although tuberculosis (TB) is curable and preventable, in 2019, TB remained the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent worldwide and the leading cause of death among persons living with HIV infection (1). The World Health Organization's (WHO's) End TB Strategy set ambitious targets for 2020, including a 20% reduction in TB incidence and a 35% reduction in the number of TB deaths compared with 2015, as well as zero TB-affected households facing catastrophic costs (defined as costs exceeding 20% of annual household income) (2). In addition, during the 2018 United Nations High-Level Meeting on TB (UNHLM-TB), all member states committed to setting 2018-2022 targets that included provision of TB treatment to 40 million persons and TB preventive treatment (TPT) to 30 million persons, including 6 million persons living with HIV infection and 24 million household contacts of patients with confirmed TB (4 million aged <5 years and 20 million aged ≥5 years) (3,4). Annual data reported to WHO by 215 countries and territories, supplemented by surveys assessing TB prevalence and patient costs in some countries, were used to estimate TB incidence, the number of persons accessing TB curative and preventive treatment, and the percentage of TB-affected households facing catastrophic costs (1). Globally, TB illness developed in an estimated 10 million persons in 2019, representing a decline in incidence of 2.3% from 2018 and 9% since 2015. An estimated 1.4 million TB-related deaths occurred, a decline of 7% from 2018 and 14% since 2015. Although progress has been made, the world is not on track to achieve the 2020 End TB Strategy incidence and mortality targets (1). Efforts to expand access to TB curative and preventive treatment need to be substantially amplified for UNHLM-TB 2022 targets to be met.

Prevalence and genetic profiles of isoniazid resistance in tuberculosis patients: A multicountry analysis of cross-sectional data.

BACKGROUND: The surveillance of drug resistance among tuberculosis (TB) patients is central to combatting the global TB epidemic and preventing the spread of antimicrobial resistance. Isoniazid and rifampicin are two of the most powerful first-line anti-TB medicines, and resistance to either of them increases the risk of treatment failure, relapse, or acquisition of resistance to other drugs. The global prevalence of rifampicin resistance is well documented, occurring in 3.4% (95% CI 2.5%-4.4%) of new TB patients and 18% (95% CI 7.6%-31%) of previously treated TB patients in 2018, whereas the prevalence of isoniazid resistance at global and regional levels is less understood. In 2018, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended a modified 6-month treatment regimen for people with isoniazid-resistant, rifampicin-susceptible TB (Hr-TB), which includes rifampicin, pyrazinamide, ethambutol, and levofloxacin. We estimated the global prevalence of Hr-TB among TB patients and investigated associated phenotypic and genotypic drug resistance patterns. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Aggregated drug resistance data reported to WHO from either routine continuous surveillance or nationally representative periodic surveys of TB patients for the period 2003-2017 were reviewed. Isoniazid data were available from 156 countries or territories for 211,753 patients. Among these, the global prevalence of Hr-TB was 7.4% (95% CI 6.5%-8.4%) among new TB patients and 11.4% (95% CI 9.4%-13.4%) among previously treated TB patients. Additional data on pyrazinamide and levofloxacin resistance were available from 6 countries (Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Pakistan, the Philippines, and South Africa). There were no cases of resistance to both pyrazinamide and levofloxacin among Hr-TB patients, except for the Philippines (1.8%, 95% CI 0.2-6.4) and Belarus (5.3%, 95% CI 0.1-26.0). Sequencing data for all genomic regions involved in isoniazid resistance were available for 4,563 patients. Among the 1,174 isolates that were resistant by either phenotypic testing or sequencing, 78.6% (95% CI 76.1%-80.9%) had resistance-conferring mutations in the katG gene and 14.6% (95% CI 12.7%-16.8%) in both katG and the inhA promoter region. For 6.8% (95% CI 5.4%-8.4%) of patients, mutations occurred in the inhA promoter alone, for whom an increased dose of isoniazid may be considered. The main limitations of this study are that most analyses were performed at the national rather than individual patient level and that the quality of laboratory testing may vary between countries. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the prevalence of Hr-TB among TB patients was higher than the prevalence of rifampicin resistance globally. Many patients with Hr-TB would be missed by current diagnostic algorithms driven by rifampicin testing, highlighting the need for new rapid molecular technologies to ensure access to appropriate treatment and care. The low prevalence of resistance to pyrazinamide and fluoroquinolones among patients with Hr-TB provides further justification for the recommended modified treatment regimen.

Global Epidemiology of Tuberculosis and Progress Toward Meeting Global Targets - Worldwide, 2018.

Worldwide, tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from a single infectious disease agent (1), including among persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (2). A World Health Organization (WHO) initiative, The End Tuberculosis Strategy, set ambitious targets for 2020-2035, including 20% reduction in TB incidence and 35% reduction in the absolute number of TB deaths by 2020 and 90% reduction in TB incidence and 95% reduction in TB deaths by 2035, compared with 2015 (3). This report evaluated global progress toward these targets based on data reported by WHO (1). Annual TB data routinely reported to WHO by 194 member states were used to estimate TB incidence and mortality overall and among persons with HIV infection, TB-preventive treatment (TPT) initiation, and drug-resistant TB for 2018 (1). In 2018, an estimated 10 million persons had incident TB, and 1.5 million TB-related deaths occurred, representing 2% and 5% declines from 2017, respectively. The number of persons with both incident and prevalent TB remained highest in the WHO South-East Asia and African regions. Decreases in the European region were on track to meet 2020 targets. Globally, among persons living with HIV, 862,000 incident TB cases occurred, and 1.8 million persons initiated TPT. Rifampicin-resistant or multidrug-resistant TB occurred among 3.4% of persons with new TB and 18% among persons who were previously treated for TB (overall, among 4.8% of persons with TB). The modest decreases in the number of persons with TB and the number of TB-related deaths were consistent with recent trends, and new and substantial progress was observed in increased TPT initiation among persons living with HIV. However, to meet the global targets for 2035, more intensive efforts are needed by public health partners to decrease TB incidence and deaths and increase the number of persons receiving TB curative and preventive treatment. Innovative approaches to case finding, scale-up of TB preventive treatment, use of newer TB treatment regimens, and prevention and control of HIV will contribute to decreasing TB.

Guidance for the Evaluation of Tuberculosis Diagnostics That Meet the World Health Organization (WHO) Target Product Profiles: An Introduction to WHO Process and Study Design Principles.

Existing high-priority target product profiles (TPPs) of the World Health Organization (WHO) establish important needs for tuberculosis (TB) diagnostic development. Building on this earlier work, this guidance series aims to provide study guidance for performing accuracy studies of novel diagnostic products that may meet the 4 high-priority WHO TPPs and thus enable adequate evidence generation to inform a WHO evidence review process. Diagnostic accuracy studies represent a fundamental step in the validation of all tests. Unfortunately, such studies often have limitations in design, execution, and reporting, leading to low certainty of the evidence about true test performance, which can delay or impede policy and scale-up decisions. This introductory paper outlines the following: (1) the purpose of this series of papers on study guidance; (2) WHO evidence needs and process for the development of policy guidelines for new TB diagnostic tests; and (3) study design considerations, ie, general diagnostic study considerations, intended use of test and role in the clinical pathway, choice of population and setting, index-test specific issues, suitable reference standard and comparators, study flow and specimen issues, and finally key issues beyond accuracy that should be considered. The other 4 papers in this series will provide more detailed guidance for each of the 4 WHO high-priority TPPs. By increasing the clarity around the clinical evaluation needs for tests that have the potential to meet the TPP specifications, we hope to support harmonized evidence generation and enable the WHO review process towards meeting the WHO End TB Strategy targets for reducing the incidence and mortality associated with TB.

Prevention of tuberculosis in household members: estimates of children eligible for treatment.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate of the number of children younger than 5 years who were household contacts of people with tuberculosis and were eligible for tuberculosis preventive treatment in 2017. METHODS: To estimate the number of eligible children, we obtained national values for the number of notified cases of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in 2017, the proportion of the population younger than 5 years in 2017 and average household size from published sources. We obtained global values for the number of active tuberculosis cases per household with an index case and for the prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection among children younger than 5 years who were household contacts of a tuberculosis case through systematic reviews, meta-analysis and Poisson regression models. FINDINGS: The estimated number of children younger than 5 years eligible for tuberculosis preventive treatment in 2017 globally was 1.27 million (95% uncertainty interval, UI: 1.24-1.31), which corresponded to an estimated global coverage of preventive treatment in children of 23% at best. By country, the estimated number ranged from less than one in the Bahamas, Iceland, Luxembourg and Malta to 350 000 (95% UI: 320 000-380 000) in India. Regionally, the highest estimates were for the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region (510 000; 95% UI: 450 000-580 000) and the WHO African Region (470 000; 95% UI: 440 000-490 000). CONCLUSION: Tuberculosis preventive treatment in children was underutilized globally in 2017. Treatment should be scaled up to help eliminate the pool of tuberculosis infection and achieve the End TB Strategy targets.

Global Epidemiology of Tuberculosis and Progress Toward Achieving Global Targets - 2017.

Worldwide, tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from a single infectious disease agent (1) and the leading cause of death among persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, accounting for approximately 40% of deaths in this population (2). The United Nations' (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (3) and the World Health Organization's (WHO's) End TB Strategy (4) have defined ambitious targets for 2020-2035, including a 35% reduction in the absolute number of TB deaths and a 20% reduction in TB incidence by 2020, compared with 2015 (4). Since 2000, WHO has produced annual TB estimates for all countries (1). Global and regional disease estimates were evaluated for 2017 to determine progress toward meeting targets. In 2017, an estimated 10 million incident cases of TB and 1.57 million TB deaths occurred, representing 1.8% and 3.9% declines, respectively, from 2016. Numbers of TB cases and disease incidence were highest in the WHO South-East Asia and Africa regions, and 9% of cases occurred among persons with HIV infection. Rifampicin-resistant (RR) or multidrug-resistant (MDR) (resistance to at least both isoniazid and rifampicin) TB occurred among 3.6% and 18% of new and previously treated TB cases, respectively (5.6% among all cases). Overall progress in global TB elimination was modest in 2017, consistent with that in recent years (1); intensified efforts to improve TB diagnosis, treatment, and prevention are required to meet global targets for 2020-2035.

Global Epidemiology of Tuberculosis.

Tuberculosis (TB) was the underlying cause of 1.3 million deaths among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative people in 2016, exceeding the global number of HIV/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) deaths. In addition, TB was a contributing cause of 374,000 HIV deaths. Despite the success of chemotherapy over the past seven decades, TB is the top infectious killer globally. In 2016, 10.4 million new cases arose, a number that has remained stable since the beginning of the 21th century, frustrating public health experts tasked to design and implement interventions to reduce the burden of TB disease worldwide. Ambitious targets for reductions in the epidemiological burden of TB have been set within the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the End TB Strategy. Achieving these targets is the focus of national and international efforts, and demonstrating whether or not they are achieved is of major importance to guide future and sustainable investments. This article reviews epidemiological facts about TB, trends in the magnitude of the burden of TB and factors contributing to it, and the effectiveness of the public health response.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of new tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries.

To help reach the target of tuberculosis (TB) disease elimination by 2050, vaccine development needs to occur now. We estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of potential TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries using an age-structured transmission model. New vaccines were assumed to be available in 2024, to prevent active TB in all individuals, to have a 5-y to lifetime duration of protection, to have 40-80% efficacy, and to be targeted at "infants" or "adolescents/adults." Vaccine prices were tiered by income group (US $1.50-$10 per dose), and cost-effectiveness was assessed using incremental cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted compared against gross national income per capita. Our results suggest that over 2024-2050, a vaccine targeted to adolescents/adults could have a greater impact than one targeted at infants. In low-income countries, a vaccine with a 10-y duration and 60% efficacy targeted at adolescents/adults could prevent 17 (95% range: 11-24) million TB cases by 2050 and could be considered cost-effective at $149 (cost saving to $387) per DALY averted. If targeted at infants, 0.89 (0.42-1.58) million TB cases could be prevented at $1,692 ($634-$4,603) per DALY averted. This profile targeted at adolescents/adults could be cost-effective at $4, $9, and $20 per dose in low-, lower-middle-, and upper-middle-income countries, respectively. Increased investments in adult-targeted TB vaccines may be warranted, even if only short duration and low efficacy vaccines are likely to be feasible, and trials among adults should be powered to detect low efficacies.

End TB strategy: the need to reduce risk inequalities.

BACKGROUND: Diseases occur in populations whose individuals differ in essential characteristics, such as exposure to the causative agent, susceptibility given exposure, and infectiousness upon infection in the case of infectious diseases. DISCUSSION: Concepts developed in demography more than 30 years ago assert that variability between individuals affects substantially the estimation of overall population risk from disease incidence data. Methods that ignore individual heterogeneity tend to underestimate overall risk and lead to overoptimistic expectations for control. Concerned that this phenomenon is frequently overlooked in epidemiology, here we feature its significance for interpreting global data on human tuberculosis and predicting the impact of control measures. We show that population-wide interventions have the greatest impact in populations where all individuals face an equal risk. Lowering variability in risk has great potential to increase the impact of interventions. Reducing inequality, therefore, empowers health interventions, which in turn improves health, further reducing inequality, in a virtuous circle.

Towards tuberculosis elimination: an action framework for low-incidence countries.

This paper describes an action framework for countries with low tuberculosis (TB) incidence (<100 TB cases per million population) that are striving for TB elimination. The framework sets out priority interventions required for these countries to progress first towards "pre-elimination" (<10 cases per million) and eventually the elimination of TB as a public health problem (less than one case per million). TB epidemiology in most low-incidence countries is characterised by a low rate of transmission in the general population, occasional outbreaks, a majority of TB cases generated from progression of latent TB infection (LTBI) rather than local transmission, concentration to certain vulnerable and hard-to-reach risk groups, and challenges posed by cross-border migration. Common health system challenges are that political commitment, funding, clinical expertise and general awareness of TB diminishes as TB incidence falls. The framework presents a tailored response to these challenges, grouped into eight priority action areas: 1) ensure political commitment, funding and stewardship for planning and essential services; 2) address the most vulnerable and hard-to-reach groups; 3) address special needs of migrants and cross-border issues; 4) undertake screening for active TB and LTBI in TB contacts and selected high-risk groups, and provide appropriate treatment; 5) optimise the prevention and care of drug-resistant TB; 6) ensure continued surveillance, programme monitoring and evaluation and case-based data management; 7) invest in research and new tools; and 8) support global TB prevention, care and control. The overall approach needs to be multisectorial, focusing on equitable access to high-quality diagnosis and care, and on addressing the social determinants of TB. Because of increasing globalisation and population mobility, the response needs to have both national and global dimensions.

National tuberculosis prevalence surveys in Asia, 1990-2012: an overview of results and lessons learned.

OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: In many countries, national tuberculosis (TB) prevalence surveys are the only way to reliably measure the burden of TB disease and monitor trends. They can also provide evidence about the current performance of TB care and control and how this could be improved. We developed an inventory of Asian surveys from 1953 to 2012 and then compiled and analysed a standard set of data for all national surveys implemented between 1990 (the baseline year for 2015 global TB targets) and 2012. RESULTS: There were 21 surveys in 12 countries between 1990 and 2012; published results were available for 18. The participation rate was at least 80% and often much higher except for two surveys in Thailand. The prevalence of bacteriologically-positive TB disease among adults aged ≥15 years varied widely among countries (1.2 per 1000 population in China in 2010 to 15 per 1000 population in Cambodia in 2002), but age and sex distribution patterns were consistent with a progressive increase in rates of disease by age, and men accounting for 66-75% of prevalent cases. A high proportion of cases (40-79% across all surveys) did not report TB symptoms that met screening criteria (generally cough of 2-3 weeks or more, and blood in the sputum) and were only detected due to chest X-ray screening of all survey participants; this proportion increased over time in countries with repeat survey data. The ratio of prevalent cases to cases notified to national TB programmes was typically around two, but was as high as three in Lao PDR and Pakistan even after the internationally recommended TB control strategy had been implemented nationwide for several years. Four countries (China, Cambodia, the Republic of Korea and the Philippines demonstrated declines in smear or culture-positive pulmonary TB prevalence of approximately 50% over 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: National TB prevalence surveys in Asia show that large reductions in the prevalence of TB disease can be achieved within a decade, that men bear much more of the burden than women and that the epidemic is ageing. Comparisons among countries show that more can be achieved in TB control in some countries with existing strategies and technologies. However, with many prevalent cases not reporting classic TB symptoms, all countries face the challenge of defining and implementing strategies that will result in earlier detection and treatment of cases.

Beyond UHC: monitoring health and social protection coverage in the context of tuberculosis care and prevention.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global public health problem. In all societies, the disease affects the poorest individuals the worst. A new post-2015 global TB strategy has been developed by WHO, which explicitly highlights the key role of universal health coverage (UHC) and social protection. One of the proposed targets is that "No TB affected families experience catastrophic costs due to TB." High direct and indirect costs of care hamper access, increase the risk of poor TB treatment outcomes, exacerbate poverty, and contribute to sustaining TB transmission. UHC, conventionally defined as access to health care without risk of financial hardship due to out-of-pocket health care expenditures, is essential but not sufficient for effective and equitable TB care and prevention. Social protection interventions that prevent or mitigate other financial risks associated with TB, including income losses and non-medical expenditures such as on transport and food, are also important. We propose a framework for monitoring both health and social protection coverage, and their impact on TB epidemiology. We describe key indicators and review methodological considerations. We show that while monitoring of general health care access will be important to track the health system environment within which TB services are delivered, specific indicators on TB access, quality, and financial risk protection can also serve as equity-sensitive tracers for progress towards and achievement of overall access and social protection.

Changing epidemic of tuberculosis amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in the Western Pacific Region: analysis of tuberculosis case notifications and treatment outcomes from 2015 to 2022.

Background: Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has deeply impacted tuberculosis (TB) services globally. This study aims to assess the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on TB diagnosis and care and explore associated factors in the Western Pacific Region. Methods: We analysed TB case notifications and treatment outcomes for the Region and 14 selected countries and areas from 2015 to 2022. We further explored differences in reported cases from predicted cases by the UHC service coverage index and Human Development Index (HDI), and the relationship between the Stringency Index and TB case notifications during the pandemic. Findings: TB case notifications declined in 2020 (21%) and 2021 (23%) compared to predicted cases and partly recovered in 2022 (18%). The shortfalls in 2020 and 2021 were more prominent in priority countries with high TB burden, where the decrease in clinically diagnosed pulmonary cases and paediatric cases was particularly pronounced. In priority countries, TB case notifications have a positive relationship with UHC service coverage index and HDI in 2021 and an inverse relationship with Stringency Index during the pandemic. In contrast, treatment outcomes have not changed significantly due to the pandemic across countries in the Region. Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely impacted TB diagnosis and care in the Western Pacific Region, especially TB case detection. Stringent government policies against the pandemic, coupled with weak health systems and suboptimal socio-economic development, may have brought a more profound and prolonged impact in priority countries. Funding: The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency and the Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

Towards elimination of chronic viral hepatitis in French Polynesia: results from a national population-based survey.

Background: In French Polynesia, hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection appears as a major risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which detection rate in the Austral archipelago is among the highest in the world. Through a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of the adult population, this study aimed at assessing the prevalence of HBV, but also hepatitis C virus (HCV), and hepatitis delta virus (HDV). Methods: A total of 1942 blood samples from participants aged 18-69 years were tested for anti-HBc, anti-HBs, HBsAg, anti-HCV IgG, and HDV RNA. Complete genome sequencing of detected HBV strains was performed. Findings: Among participants, 315/1834, 582/1834, 33/1834, 0/1857, and 0/33 tested positive for anti-HBc, anti-HBs, HBsAg, anti-HCV IgG, and HDV RNA, respectively. The population prevalence of HBsAg was estimated at 1.0% (95% CI: 0.6-1.7). All HBsAg carriers were born in French Polynesia before vaccination at birth became mandatory. In multivariate analyses, identified factors associated with HBsAg carriage included: the archipelago of residence (p < 0.0001), age (p < 0.0001), and education level (p = 0.0077). HBV genotypes B, C, and F were detected. Interpretation: French Polynesia has a low endemicity level of HBV and its population may be considered at low risk for HCV and HDV infection. However, prevalence of HBsAg was found concerning in Austral (3.8%; 95% CI: 1.9-7.5) and Marquesas (6.5%; 95% CI: 3.8-11) archipelagoes. In the Austral archipelago, the presence of genotype C may account for the elevated rate of HCC. Our findings warrant more efforts to improve access to detection, prevention and care to people born before the systematic vaccination policy application, and residing in higher-risk areas, to achieve HBV elimination in French Polynesia. Funding: Research Delegation of French Polynesia.

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in children: evidence from global surveillance.

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) can affect persons of any age, but it remains unknown whether children are more or less likely than adults to have MDR-TB. Representative drug resistance surveillance data reported to the World Health Organization between 1994 and 2011 were analysed to test the association between MDR-TB and age group (children aged <15 years versus adults aged ≥ 15 years), using odds ratios derived by logistic regression with robust standard errors. Of 85 countries with data from nationwide surveys or surveillance systems, 35 reported at least one paediatric MDR-TB case. Aggregated data on age and drug susceptibility testing for 323 046 tuberculosis cases notified in these 35 countries were analysed. Odds ratios for MDR-TB in children compared to adults varied widely between countries. In Germany, Namibia, South Africa, the UK and the USA, MDR-TB was positively associated with age <15 years. In the remaining countries no association was established. Despite the limitations intrinsic to the use of surveillance data and to the challenges of diagnosing childhood tuberculosis, our analysis suggests that proportions of MDR-TB in children and adults are similar in many settings. Of particular concern is the association found between age <15 years and MDR-TB in southern African countries with high HIV prevalence.

Prospects for tuberculosis elimination.

The target for TB elimination is to reduce annual incidence to less than one case per million population by 2050. Meeting that target requires a 1,000-fold reduction in incidence in little more than 35 years. This can be achieved only by combining the effective treatment of active TB-early case detection and high cure rates to interrupt transmission-with methods to prevent new infections and to neutralize existing latent infections. Vigorous implementation of the WHO Stop TB Strategy is needed to achieve the former, facilitated by the effective supply of, and demand for, health services. The latter calls for new technology, including biomarkers of TB risk, diagnostics, drugs, and vaccines. An important milestone en route to elimination will be reached when there is less than 1 TB death per 100,000 population, marking entry into the elimination phase. This landmark can be reached by many countries within 1-2 decades.