Parasite clearance and protection from Plasmodium falciparum infection (PCPI): a three-arm, parallel, double-blinded, placebo-controlled, randomised trial of presumptive sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine versus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine versus artesunate monotherapy among asymptomatic children 3-5 years of age in Cameroon.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization 2022 malaria chemoprevention guidelines recommend providing a full course of antimalarial treatment at pre-defined intervals, regardless of malaria status to prevent illness among children resident in moderate to high perennial malaria transmission settings as perennial malaria chemoprevention (PMC) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP). The dhps I431V mutation circulating in West Africa has unknown effect on SP protective efficacy. METHODS: This protocol is for a three-arm, parallel, double-blinded, placebo-controlled, randomised trial in Cameroon among children randomly assigned to one of three directly-observed treatment groups: (i) Group 1 (n = 450) receives daily artesunate (AS) placebo on days - 7 to -1, then active SP plus placebo amodiaquine (AQ) on day 0, and placebo AQ on days 1 and 2; (ii) Group 2 (n = 250) receives placebo AS on days - 7 to -1, then active SP and AQ on day 0, and active AQ on days 1 and 2; and (iii) Group 3 (n = 200) receives active AS on days - 7 to -1, then placebo SP on day 0 and placebo AQ on days 0 to 2. On days 0, 2, 5, 7, and thereafter weekly until day 28, children provide blood for thick smear slides. Dried blood spots are collected on the same days and weekly from day 28 to day 63 for quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and genotype analyses. DISCUSSION: Our aim is to quantify the chemopreventive efficacy of SP, and SP plus AQ, and measure the effect of the parasite genotypes associated with SP resistance on parasite clearance and protection from infection when exposed to SP chemoprevention. We will report unblinded results including: (i) time-to-parasite clearance among SP and SP plus AQ recipients who were positive on day 0 by qPCR and followed to day 63; (ii) mean duration of SP and SP plus AQ protection against infection, and (iii) mean duration of symptom-free status among SP and SP plus AQ recipients who were parasite free on day 0 by qPCR. Our study is designed to compare the 28-day follow-up of the new WHO malaria chemoprevention efficacy study protocol with extended follow-up to day 63. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT06173206; 15/12/2023.

Effectiveness of malaria chemoprevention in the first two years of life in Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire compared to standard of care: study protocol for a population-based prospective cohort impact evaluation study.

BACKGROUND: Perennial malaria chemoprevention (PMC) is a chemoprevention strategy endorsed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and is increasingly being adopted by National Malaria Programmes. PMC aims to reduce morbidity and mortality caused by malaria and anaemia in in young children through provision of antimalarial drugs at routine contact points with the local health system. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the programmatically-implemented country-tailored PMC programmes targeting children up to two years of age using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) on the incidence of malaria and anaemia in children in Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire. METHODS: We will assess the impact of PMC using passive and active monitoring of a prospective observational cohort of children up to 36 months of age at recruitment in selected study sites in Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire. The primary and secondary outcomes include malaria, anaemia and malnutrition incidence. We will also conduct a time-series analysis of passively detected malaria and anaemia cases comparing the periods before and after PMC introduction. This study is powered to detect a 30% and 40% reduction of malaria incidence compared to the standard of care in Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire, respectively. DISCUSSION: This multi-country study aims to provide evidence of the effectiveness of PMC targeting children in the first two years of life on malaria and anaemia and will provide important information to inform optimal operationalization and evaluation of this strategy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Cameroon - NCT05889052; Côte d'Ivoire - NCT05856357.

Safety monitoring experience of single-low dose primaquine co-administered with artemether-lumefantrine among providers and patients in routine healthcare practice: a qualitative study in Eastern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Primaquine is a gametocytocidal drug recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) in a single-low dose combined with artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for the treatment and prevention of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission. Safety monitoring concerns and the lack of a universal validated and approved primaquine pharmacovigilance tool is a challenge for a national rollout in many countries. This study aimed to explore the acceptance, reliability and perceived effectiveness of the primaquine roll out monitoring pharmacovigilance tool (PROMPT). METHODS: This study was conducted in three dispensaries in the Coastal region of Eastern Tanzania. The study held six in-depth interviews with healthcare providers and six participatory focus group discussions with malaria patients (3) and parents/guardians of sick children (3). Participants were purposively sampled. Thematic analysis was conducted with the aid of NVivo qualitative analysis software. RESULTS: The respondents' general acceptance and perceived effectiveness of the single-low dose primaquine and PROMPT was good. Screening procedure for treatment eligibility and explaining to patients about the possible adverse events was considered very useful for safety reasons. Crushing and dissolving of primaquine tablet to get the appropriate dose, particularly in children, was reported by all providers to be challenging. Transport costs and poor access to the health facility were the main reasons for a patient failing to return to the clinic for a scheduled follow-up visit. Treatment was perceived to be safe by both providers and patients and reported no case of a severe adverse event. Some providers were concerned with the haemoglobin drop observed on day 7. CONCLUSION: Single-low dose primaquine was perceived to be safe and acceptable among providers and patients. PROMPT demonstrated to be a reliable and user-friendly tool among providers. Further validation of the tool by involving the National Malaria Control Programme is pivotal to addressing key challenges and facilitating primaquine adoption in the national policy.

Scaling up malaria elimination management and leadership: a pilot in three provinces in Zimbabwe, 2016-2018.

BACKGROUND: Focus for improved malaria programme performance is often placed on the technical challenges, while operational issues are neglected. Many of the operational challenges that inhibit malaria programme effectiveness can be addressed by improving communication and coordination, increasing accountability, maintaining motivation, providing adequate training and supervision, and removing bureaucratic silos. METHODS: A programme of work was piloted in Zimbabwe with one malaria eliminating province, Matabeleland South in 2016-2017, and scaled up to include two other provinces, Matabeleland North and Midlands, in 2017-2018. The intervention included participatory, organization development and quality improvement methods. RESULTS: Workshop participants in Matabeleland South reported an improvement in data management. In Matabeleland North, motivation among nurses improved as they gained confidence in case management from training, and overall staff morale improved. There was also an improvement in data quality and data sharing. In Midlands, the poorly performing district was motivated to improve, and both participating districts became more goal-oriented. They also became more focused on monitoring their data regularly. Participants from all provinces reported having gained skills in listening, communicating, facilitating discussions, and making presentations. Participation in the intervention changed the mindset of malaria programme staff, increasing ownership and accountability, and empowering them to identify and solve problems, make decisions, and act within their sphere of influence, elevating challenges when appropriate. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot demonstrates that a participatory, organization development and quality improvement approach has broad ranging effects, including improving local delivery of interventions, tailoring strategies to target specific populations, finding efficiencies in the system that could not be found using the traditional top-down approach, and improving motivation and communication between different cadres of health workers. Scale-up of this simple model can be achieved and benefits sustained over time if the process is imbedded into the programme with the training of health staff who can serve as management improvement coaches. Methods to improve operational performance that are scalable at the district level are urgently needed: this approach is a possible tactic that can significantly contribute to the achievement of global malaria eradication goals.

Evaluation of loop-mediated isothermal amplification as a surveillance tool for malaria in reactive case detection moving towards elimination.

BACKGROUND: As malaria transmission decreases, the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic at any given time increases. This poses a challenge for diagnosis as routinely used rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) miss asymptomatic malaria cases with low parasite densities due to poor sensitivity. Yet, asymptomatic infections can contribute to onward transmission of malaria and therefore act as infectious reservoirs and perpetuate malaria transmission. This study compared the performance of RDTs to loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) in the diagnosis of malaria during reactive active case detection surveillance. METHODS: All reported malaria cases in the Engela Health District of Namibia were traced back to their place of residence and persons living within the four closest neighbouring houses to the index case (neighbourhood) were tested for malaria infection with RDTs and dried blood spots (DBS) were collected. LAMP and nested PCR (nPCR) were carried out on all RDTs and DBS. The same procedure was followed in randomly selected control neighbourhoods. RESULTS: Some 3151 individuals were tested by RDT, LAMP and nPCR. Sensitivity of RDTs and LAMP were 9.30 and 95.50%, respectively, and specificities were 99.27 and 99.92%, respectively, compared to nPCR. LAMP carried out on collected RDTs showed a sensitivity and specificity of 95.35 and 99.85% compared to nPCR carried out on DBS. There were 2 RDT samples that were negative by LAMP but the corresponding DBS samples were positive by PCR. CONCLUSION: The study showed that LAMP had the equivalent performance as nPCR for the identification of Plasmodium falciparum infection. Given its relative simplicity to implement over more complex and time-consuming methods, such as PCR, LAMP is particularly useful in elimination settings where high sensitivity and ease of operation are important.

Subpatent malaria in a low transmission African setting: a cross-sectional study using rapid diagnostic testing (RDT) and loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) from Zambezi region, Namibia.

BACKGROUND: Subpatent malaria infections, or low-density infections below the detection threshold of microscopy or standard rapid diagnostic testing (RDT), can perpetuate persistent transmission and, therefore, may be a barrier for countries like Namibia that are pursuing malaria elimination. This potential burden in Namibia has not been well characterized. METHODS: Using a two-stage cluster sampling, cross-sectional design, subjects of all age were enrolled during the end of the 2015 malaria transmission season in Zambezi region, located in northeast Namibia. Malaria RDTs were performed with subsequent gold standard testing by loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) using dried blood spots. Infection prevalence was measured and the diagnostic accuracy of RDT calculated. Relationships between recent fever, demographics, epidemiological factors, and infection were assessed. RESULTS: Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection was low: 0.8% (16/1919) by RDT and 2.2% (43/1919) by LAMP. All but one LAMP-positive infection was RDT-negative. Using LAMP as gold standard, the sensitivity and specificity of RDT were 2.3% and 99.2%, respectively. Compared to LAMP-negative infections, a higher portion LAMP-positive infections were associated with fever (45.2% vs. 30.4%, p = 0.04), though 55% of infections were not associated with fever. Agricultural occupations and cattle herding were significantly associated with LAMP-detectable infection (Adjusted ORs 5.02, 95% CI 1.77-14.23, and 11.82, 95% CI 1.06-131.81, respectively), while gender, travel, bed net use, and indoor residual spray coverage were not. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents results from the first large-scale malaria cross-sectional survey from Namibia using molecular testing to characterize subpatent infections. Findings suggest that fever history and standard RDTs are not useful to address this burden. Achievement of malaria elimination may require active case detection using more sensitive point-of-care diagnostics or presumptive treatment and targeted to high-risk groups.

The central role of national programme management for the achievement of malaria elimination: a cross case-study analysis of nine malaria programmes.

BACKGROUND: A malaria eradication goal has been proposed, at the same time as a new global strategy and implementation framework. Countries are considering the strategies and tools that will enable progress towards malaria goals. The eliminating malaria case-study series reports were reviewed to identify successful programme management components using a cross-case study analytic approach. METHODS: Nine out of ten case-study reports were included in the analysis (Bhutan, Cape Verde, Malaysia, Mauritius, Namibia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Turkmenistan). A conceptual framework for malaria elimination programme management was developed and data were extracted and synthesized. Findings were reviewed at a consultative workshop, which led to a revision of the framework and further data extraction and synthesis. Success factors of implementation, programme choices and changes, and enabling factors were distilled. RESULTS: Decentralized programmes enhanced engagement in malaria elimination by sub-national units and communities. Integration of the malaria programme into other health services was also common. Decentralization and integration were often challenging due to the skill and experience levels of newly tasked staff. Accountability for programme impact was not clarified for most programmes. Motivation of work force was a key factor in maintaining programme quality but there were few clear, detailed strategies provided. Different incentive schemes targeted various stakeholders. Training and supervision, although not well described, were prioritized by most programmes. Multi-sectoral collaboration helped some programmes share information, build strategies and interventions and achieve a higher quality of implementation. In most cases programme action was spurred by malaria outbreaks or a new elimination goal with strong leadership. Some programmes showed high capacity for flexibility through introduction of new strategies and tools. Several case-studies described methods for monitoring implementation quality and coverage; however analysis and feedback to those implementing malaria elimination in the periphery was not well described. Political commitment and sustained financing contributed to malaria programme success. Consistency of malaria programmes depends on political commitment, human and financial resources, and leadership. Operational capacity of the programme and the overall health system structure and strength are also important aspects. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria eradication will require adaptive, well-managed malaria programmes that are able to tailor implementation of evidence-based strategies, founded upon strong sub-national surveillance and response, with adequate funding and human resources.

Strategies and approaches to vector control in nine malaria-eliminating countries: a cross-case study analysis.

BACKGROUND: There has been progress towards malaria elimination in the last decade. In response, WHO launched the Global Technical Strategy (GTS), in which vector surveillance and control play important roles. Country experiences in the Eliminating Malaria Case Study Series were reviewed to identify success factors on the road to elimination using a cross-case study analytic approach. METHODS: Reports were included in the analysis if final English language draft reports or publications were available at the time of analysis (Bhutan, Cape Verde, Malaysia, Mauritius, Namibia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Turkmenistan). A conceptual framework for vector control in malaria elimination was developed, reviewed, formatted as a matrix, and case study data was extracted and entered into the matrix. A workshop was convened during which participants conducted reviews of the case studies and matrices and arrived at a consensus on the evidence and lessons. The framework was revised and a second round of data extraction, synthesis and summary of the case study reports was conducted. RESULTS: Countries implemented a range of vector control interventions. Most countries aligned with integrated vector management, however its impact was not well articulated. All programmes conducted entomological surveillance, but the response (i.e., stratification and targeting of interventions, outbreak forecasting and strategy) was limited or not described. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) was commonly used by countries. There were several examples of severe reductions or halting of IRS coverage and subsequent resurgence of malaria. Funding and operational constraints and poor implementation had roles. Bed nets were commonly used by most programmes; coverage and effectiveness were either not measured or not articulated. Larval control was an important intervention for several countries, preventing re-introduction, however coverage and impact on incidence were not described. Across all interventions, coverage indicators were incomparable, and the rationale for which tools were used and which were not used appeared to be a function of the availability of funding, operational issues and cost instead of evidence of effectiveness to reduce incidence. CONCLUSIONS: More work is required to fill gaps in programme guidance, clarify the best methods for choosing and targeting vector control interventions, and support to measure cost, cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of vector surveillance and control interventions.

Adding a single low-dose of primaquine (0.25 mg/kg) to artemether-lumefantrine did not compromise treatment outcome of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Tanzania: a randomized, single-blinded clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recently recommended the addition of a single low-dose of the gametocytocidal drug primaquine (PQ) to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) in low transmission settings as a component of pre-elimination or elimination programmes. However, it is unclear whether that influences the ACT cure rate. The study assessed treatment outcome of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) plus a single PQ dose (0.25 mg/kg) versus standard AL regimen for treatment of acute uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Tanzania. METHODS: A randomized, single-blinded, clinical trial was conducted in Yombo, Bagamoyo district, Tanzania. Acute uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria patients aged ≥1 year, with the exception of pregnant and lactating women, were enrolled and treated with AL plus a single PQ dose (0.25 mg/kg) or AL alone under supervision. PQ was administered together with the first AL dose. Clinical and laboratory assessments were performed at 0, 8, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 h and on days 7, 14, 21, and 28. The primary end-point was a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-adjusted adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) on day 28. Secondary outcomes included: fever and asexual parasitaemia clearance, proportion of patients with PCR-determined parasitaemia on day 3, and proportion of patients with Pfmdr1 N86Y and Pfcrt K76T on days 0, 3 and day of recurrent infection. RESULTS: Overall 220 patients were enrolled, 110 were allocated AL + PQ and AL, respectively. Parasite clearance by microscopy was fast, but PCR detectable parasitaemia on day 3 was 31/109 (28.4 %) and 29/108 (26.9 %) in patients treated with AL + PQ and AL, respectively (p = 0.79). Day 28 PCR-adjusted ACPR and re-infection rate was 105/105 (100 %) and 101/102 (99 %) (p = 0.31), and 5/107 (4.7 %) and 5/8 (4.8 %) (p = 0.95), in AL + PQ and AL arm, respectively. There was neither any statistically significant difference in the proportion of Pfmdr1 N86Y or Pfcrt K76T between treatment arms on days 0, 3 and day of recurrent infection, nor within treatment arms between days 0 and 3 or day 0 and day of recurrent infection. CONCLUSION: The new WHO recommendation of adding a single low-dose of PQ to AL did not compromise treatment outcome of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in Tanzania. Trial registration number NCT02090036.

Safety of a single low-dose of primaquine in addition to standard artemether-lumefantrine regimen for treatment of acute uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the safety of the new World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation of adding a single low-dose of primaquine (PQ) to standard artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), regardless of individual glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) status, for treatment of acute uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Tanzania. METHODS: Men and non-pregnant, non-lactating women aged ≥1 year with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria were enrolled and randomized to either standard artemether-lumefantrine (AL) regimen alone or with a 0.25 mg/kg single-dose of PQ. PQ was administered concomitantly with the first AL dose. All drug doses were supervised. Safety was evaluated between days 0 and 28. G6PD status was assessed using rapid test (CareStart™) and molecular genotyping. The primary endpoint was mean percentage relative reduction in haemoglobin (Hb) concentration (g/dL) between days 0 and 7 by genotypic G6PD status and treatment arm. RESULTS: Overall, 220 patients, 110 per treatment arm, were enrolled, of whom 33/217 (15.2 %) were phenotypically G6PD deficient, whereas 15/110 (13.6 %) were genotypically hemizygous males, 5/110 (4.5 %) homozygous females and 22/110 (20 %) heterozygous females. Compared to genotypically G6PD wild-type/normal [6.8, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 4.67-8.96], only heterozygous patients in AL arm had significant reduction in day-7 mean relative Hb concentration (14.3, 95 % CI 7.02-21.55, p=0.045), however, none fulfilled the pre-defined haemolytic threshold value of ≥25 % Hb reduction. After adjustment for baseline parasitaemia, Hb, age and sex the mean relative Hb reduction was not statistically significant in both heterozygous and hemizygous/homozygous patients in both arms. A majority of the adverse events (AEs) were mild and unrelated to the study drugs. However, six (4.4 %) episodes, three per treatment arm, of acute haemolytic anaemia occurred between days 0 and 7. Three occurred in phenotypically G6PD deficient patients, two in AL and one in AL + PQ arm, but none in genotypically hemizygous/homozygous patients. All patients with acute haemolytic anaemia recovered without medical intervention. CONCLUSION: The findings support that the WHO recommendation of adding a single low-dose of PQ to standard AL regimen is safe for the treatment of acute uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria regardless of G6PD status in Tanzania. Trial registration number NCT02090036.

Development of a pharmacovigilance safety monitoring tool for the rollout of single low-dose primaquine and artemether-lumefantrine to treat Plasmodium falciparum infections in Swaziland: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Countries remain reluctant to adopt the 2012 World Health Organization recommendation for single low-dose (0.25 mg/kg) primaquine (SLD PQ) for Plasmodium falciparum transmission-blocking due to concerns over drug-related haemolysis risk, especially among glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase-deficient (G6PDd) people, without evidence demonstrating that it can be safely deployed in their settings. Pharmacovigilance methods provide a systematic way of collecting safety data and supporting the rollout of SLD PQ. METHODS: The Primaquine Roll Out Monitoring Pharmacovigilance Tool (PROMPT), comprising: (1) a standardized form to support the surveillance of possible adverse events following SLD PQ treatment; (2) a patient information card to enhance awareness of known adverse drug reactions of SLD PQ use; and (3) a database compiling recorded information, was developed and piloted. Data on patient characteristics, malaria diagnosis and treatment are collected. Blood samples are taken to measure haemoglobin (Hb) and test for G6PD deficiency. Active follow-up includes a repeat Hb measurement and adverse event monitoring on or near day 7. A 13-month prospective pilot study in two hospital facilities in Swaziland alongside the introduction of SLD PQ generated preliminary evidence on the feasibility and acceptability of PROMPT. RESULTS: PROMPT was well received by nurses as a simple, pragmatic approach to active surveillance of SLD PQ safety data. Of the 102 patients enrolled and administered SLD PQ, none were G6PDd. 93 (91.2 %) returned on or near day 7 for follow-up. Four (4.6 %) patients had falls in Hb ≥25 % from baseline, none of whom presented with signs or symptoms of anaemia. No patient's Hb fell below 7 g/dL and none required a blood transfusion. Of the 11 (11 %) patients who reported an adverse event over the study period, three were considered serious and included two deaths and one hospitalization; none were causally related to SLD PQ. Four non-serious adverse events were considered definitely, probably, or possibly related to SLD PQ. CONCLUSION: Improved pharmacovigilance to monitor and promote the safety of the WHO recommendation is needed. The successful application of PROMPT demonstrates its potential as an important tool to rapidly generate locally acquired safety data and support pharmacovigilance in resource-limited settings.

The independent effect of living in malaria hotspots on future malaria infection: an observational study from Misungwi, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: As malaria transmission declines, continued improvements of prevention and control interventions will increasingly rely on accurate knowledge of risk factors and an ability to define high-risk areas and populations at risk for focal targeting of interventions. This paper explores the independent association between living in a hotspot and prospective risk of malaria infection. METHODS: Malaria infection status defined by nPCR and AMA-1 status in year 1 were used to define geographic hotspots using two geospatial statistical methods (SaTScan and Kernel density smoothing). Other malaria risk factors for malaria infection were explored by fitting a multivariable model. RESULTS: This study demonstrated that residing in infection hotspot of malaria transmission is an independent predictor of malaria infection in the future. CONCLUSION: It is likely that targeting such hotspots with better coverage and improved malaria control strategies will result in more cost-efficient uses of resources to move towards malaria elimination.

Fine-scale malaria risk mapping from routine aggregated case data.

BACKGROUND: Mapping malaria risk is an integral component of efficient resource allocation. Routine health facility data are convenient to collect, but without information on the locations at which transmission occurred, their utility for predicting variation in risk at a sub-catchment level is presently unclear. METHODS: Using routinely collected health facility level case data in Swaziland between 2011-2013, and fine scale environmental and ecological variables, this study explores the use of a hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework for downscaling risk maps from health facility catchment level to a fine scale (1 km x 1 km). Fine scale predictions were validated using known household locations of cases and a random sample of points to act as pseudo-controls. RESULTS: Results show that fine-scale predictions were able to discriminate between cases and pseudo-controls with an AUC value of 0.84. When scaled up to catchment level, predicted numbers of cases per health facility showed broad correspondence with observed numbers of cases with little bias, with 84 of the 101 health facilities with zero cases correctly predicted as having zero cases. CONCLUSIONS: This method holds promise for helping countries in pre-elimination and elimination stages use health facility level data to produce accurate risk maps at finer scales. Further validation in other transmission settings and an evaluation of the operational value of the approach is necessary.

Hot spot or not: a comparison of spatial statistical methods to predict prospective malaria infections.

BACKGROUND: Within affected communities, Plasmodium falciparum infections may be skewed in distribution such that single or small clusters of households consistently harbour a disproportionate number of infected individuals throughout the year. Identifying these hotspots of malaria transmission would permit targeting of interventions and a more rapid reduction in malaria burden across the whole community. This study set out to compare different statistical methods of hotspot detection (SaTScan, kernel smoothing, weighted local prevalence) using different indicators (PCR positivity, AMA-1 and MSP-1 antibodies) for prediction of infection the following year. METHODS: Two full surveys of four villages in Mwanza, Tanzania were completed over consecutive years, 2010-2011. In both surveys, infection was assessed using nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR). In addition in 2010, serologic markers (AMA-1 and MSP-119 antibodies) of exposure were assessed. Baseline clustering of infection and serological markers were assessed using three geospatial methods: spatial scan statistics, kernel analysis and weighted local prevalence analysis. Methods were compared in their ability to predict infection in the second year of the study using random effects logistic regression models, and comparisons of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for each model. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effect of varying radius size for the kernel and weighted local prevalence methods and maximum population size for the spatial scan statistic. RESULTS: Guided by AUC values, the kernel method and spatial scan statistics appeared to be more predictive of infection in the following year. Hotspots of PCR-detected infection and seropositivity to AMA-1 were predictive of subsequent infection. For the kernel method, a 1 km window was optimal. Similarly, allowing hotspots to contain up to 50% of the population was a better predictor of infection in the second year using spatial scan statistics than smaller maximum population sizes. CONCLUSIONS: Clusters of AMA-1 seroprevalence or parasite prevalence that are predictive of infection a year later can be identified using geospatial models. Kernel smoothing using a 1 km window and spatial scan statistics both provided accurate prediction of future infection.

Targeting imported malaria through social networks: a potential strategy for malaria elimination in Swaziland.

BACKGROUND: Swaziland has made great progress towards its goal of malaria elimination by 2015. However, malaria importation from neighbouring high-endemic Mozambique through Swaziland's eastern border remains a major factor that could prevent elimination from being achieved. In order to reach elimination, Swaziland must rapidly identify and treat imported malaria cases before onward transmission occurs. METHODS: A nationwide formative assessment was conducted over eight weeks to determine if the imported cases of malaria identified by the Swaziland National Malaria Control Programme could be linked to broader social networks and to explore methods to access these networks. RESULTS: Using a structured format, interviews were carried out with malaria surveillance agents (6), health providers (10), previously identified imported malaria cases (19) and people belonging to the networks identified through these interviews (25). Most imported malaria cases were Mozambicans (63%, 12/19) making a living in Swaziland and sustaining their families in Mozambique. The majority of imported cases (73%, 14/19) were labourers and self-employed contractors who travelled frequently to Mozambique to visit their families and conduct business. Social networks of imported cases with similar travel patterns were identified through these interviews. Nearly all imported cases (89%, 17/19) were willing to share contact information to enable network members to be interviewed. Interviews of network members and key informants revealed common congregation points, such as the urban market places in Manzini and Malkerns, as well as certain bus stations, where people with similar travel patterns and malaria risk behaviours could be located and tested for malaria. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that imported cases of malaria belonged to networks of people with similar travel patterns. This study may provide novel methods for screening high-risk groups of travellers using both snowball sampling and time-location sampling of networks to identify and treat additional malaria cases. Implementation of a proactive screening programme of importation networks may help Swaziland halt transmission and achieve malaria elimination by 2015.

How socioeconomic status affected the access to health facilities and malaria diagnosis in children under five years: findings from 19 sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: Prompt and appropriate clinical management of malaria is critical for reducing the continued high burden of malaria among children under five years in sub-Saharan countries. However, more remains to be known about how a patient's socioeconomic status (SES) would affect the access to diagnosis of malaria. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study using the Demographic and Health Survey and Malaria Indicators Survey, we pooled the data of 38,567 febrile under-five children in 2016-2018 from 19 sub-Saharan countries. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the associations between SES and two binary outcomes: the visit to a health facility and a blood test for fever. Stratified analyses were further conducted by the type of health facilities (public hospitals/public primary healthcare facilities/private hospitals/private primary healthcare facilities) for the latter outcome. RESULTS: Fifty-eight percent of the febrile children were taken to health facilities, among whom only 55% took blood tests. Compared to children from households in the highest wealth quintile, children in the lowest quintile were less likely to be taken to medical facilities [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.775, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.675-0.889]. Parents with more than secondary education were more likely to seek care (aOR = 1.830, 95% CI: 1.561-2.145) and to have blood tests (aOR = 1.729, 95% CI: 1.436-2.082) for their febrile children than parents without formal education. The probabilities of receiving blood tests at public hospitals and public primary healthcare facilities stayed relatively high across parental education levels and wealth quintiles, while these probabilities remained the lowest at private primary healthcare facilities, ranging from 0.100 (95% CI: 0.074-0.127) to 0.139 (95% CI: 0.083-0.194) across parental education levels and from 0.104 (95% CI: 0.078-0.130) to 0.125 (95% CI: 0.090-0.160) across wealth quintiles. CONCLUSIONS: Significant socioeconomic disparities existed both in the access to health facilities and laboratory diagnosis of malaria in children in sub-Saharan African countries. These disparities were particularly evident in the private sector. Universal health coverage needs to be further strengthened to make formal healthcare in general and the laboratory diagnosis of malaria more accessible and affordable.

The economic benefits of malaria elimination: do they include increases in tourism?

BACKGROUND: Policy makers have speculated that one of the economic benefits of malaria elimination includes increases in foreign direct investment, particularly tourism. METHODS: This study examines the empirical relationship between the demand for travel and malaria cases in two countries with large tourism industries around the time in which they carried out malaria-elimination campaigns. In Mauritius, this analysis examines historical, yearly tourist arrivals and malaria cases from 1978-1999, accounting for the background secular trend of increasing international travel. In Dominican Republic, a country embarking upon malaria elimination, it employs a time-series analysis of the monthly, international tourist arrivals from 1998-2010 to determine whether the timing of significant deviations in tourist arrivals coincides with malaria outbreaks. RESULTS: While naïve relationships exist in both cases, the results show that the relationships between tourist arrivals and malaria cases are relatively weak and statistically insignificant once secular confounders are accounted for. CONCLUSIONS: This suggests that any economic benefits from tourism that may be derived from actively pursuing elimination in countries that have high tourism potential are likely to be small when measured at a national level. Rather, tourism benefits are likely to be experienced with greater impact in more concentrated tourist areas within countries, and future studies should seek to assess these relationships at a regional or local level.

Strengthening Management, Community Engagement, and Sustainability of the Subnational Response to Accelerate Malaria Elimination in Namibia.

Leadership and management skills are critical for health programs to deliver high-quality interventions in complex systems. In malaria-eliminating countries, national and subnational health teams are reorienting strategies to address focal transmission while preventing new cases and adapting to decentralization and declines in external financing. A capacity-strengthening program in two regions in Namibia helped malaria program implementers identify and address key operational, political, and financial challenges. The program focused on developing skills and techniques in problem-solving and teamwork, engaging decision-makers, and using financial evidence to prioritize domestic resources for malaria through participatory approaches. Results of the program included an observed 40% increase in malaria case reporting, 32% increase in reporting and tracing of imported malaria cases, 10% increase in malaria case management, integration of malaria activities into local operational plans, and an increase in subnational resources for malaria teams. To promote program sustainability beyond the implementation period, key program aspects were institutionalized into existing health system structures, program staff were trained in change leadership, and participants integrated the skills and approaches into their professional roles. A capacity -strengthening program with joint focus on leadership, management, and advocacy has potential for application to other health issues and geographies.

Using parasite genetic and human mobility data to infer local and cross-border malaria connectivity in Southern Africa.

Local and cross-border importation remain major challenges to malaria elimination and are difficult to measure using traditional surveillance data. To address this challenge, we systematically collected parasite genetic data and travel history from thousands of malaria cases across northeastern Namibia and estimated human mobility from mobile phone data. We observed strong fine-scale spatial structure in local parasite populations, providing positive evidence that the majority of cases were due to local transmission. This result was largely consistent with estimates from mobile phone and travel history data. However, genetic data identified more detailed and extensive evidence of parasite connectivity over hundreds of kilometers than the other data, within Namibia and across the Angolan and Zambian borders. Our results provide a framework for incorporating genetic data into malaria surveillance and provide evidence that both strengthening of local interventions and regional coordination are likely necessary to eliminate malaria in this region of Southern Africa.

Predicting the likelihood and intensity of mosquito infection from sex specific Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte density.

Understanding the importance of gametocyte density on human-to-mosquito transmission is of immediate relevance to malaria control. Previous work (Churcher et al., 2013) indicated a complex relationship between gametocyte density and mosquito infection. Here we use data from 148 feeding experiments on naturally infected gametocyte carriers to show that the relationship is much simpler and depends on both female and male parasite density. The proportion of mosquitoes infected is primarily determined by the density of female gametocytes though transmission from low gametocyte densities may be impeded by a lack of male parasites. Improved precision of gametocyte quantification simplifies the shape of the relationship with infection increasing rapidly before plateauing at higher densities. The mean number of oocysts per mosquito rises quickly with gametocyte density but continues to increase across densities examined. The work highlights the importance of measuring both female and male gametocyte density when estimating the human reservoir of infection.