Pairwise summation as a method for the additive combination of probabilities in qualitative risk assessments.

Qualitative frameworks are widely employed to tackle urgent animal or public health issues when data are scarce and/or urgent decisions need to be made. In qualitative models, the degree of belief regarding the probabilities of the events occurring along the risk pathway(s) and the outcomes is described in nonnumerical terms, typically using words such as Low, Medium, or High. The main methodological challenge, intrinsic in qualitative models, relates to performing mathematical operations and adherence to the rule of probabilities when probabilities are nonnumerical. Although methods to obtain the qualitative probability from the conditional realization of n events are well-established and consistent with the multiplication rule of probabilities, there is a lack of accepted methods for addressing situations where the probability of an event occurring can increase, and the rule of probability P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B) should apply. In this work, we propose a method based on the pairwise summation to fill this methodological gap. Our method was tested on two qualitative models and compared by means of scenario analysis to other approaches found in literature. The qualitative nature of the models prevented formal validation; however, when using the pairwise summation, results consistently appeared more coherent with probability rules. Even if the final qualitative estimate can only represent an approximation of the actual probability of the event occurring, qualitative models have proven to be effective in providing scientific-based evidence to support decision-making. The method proposed in this study contributes to reducing the subjectivity that characterizes qualitative models, improving transparency and reproducibility.

A longitudinal study of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in dromedary camels.

BACKGROUND: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was identified in humans in 2012. Since then, 2605 cases and 937 associated deaths have been reported globally. Camels are the natural host for MERS-CoV and camel to human transmission has been documented. The relationship between MERS-CoV shedding and presence of neutralizing antibodies in camels is critical to inform surveillance and control, including future deployment of camel vaccines. However, it remains poorly understood. The longitudinal study conducted in a closed camel herd in Egypt between December 2019 and March 2020 helped to characterize the kinetics of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibodies and its relation with viral shedding. RESULTS: During the 100-day longitudinal study, 27 out of 54 camels (50%) consistently tested negative for presence of antibodies against MERS-CoV, 19 (35.2%) tested positive and 8 (14.8%) had both, positive and negative test results. Fourteen events that could be interpreted as serological indication of probable infection (two seroconversions and twelve instances of positive camels more than doubling their optical density ratio (OD ratio) in consecutive samples) were identified. Observed times between the identified events provided strong evidence (p = 0.002) against the null hypothesis that they occurred with constant rate during the study, as opposed to clustering at certain points in time. A generalized additive model showed that optical density ratio (OD ratio) is positively associated with being an adult and varies across individual camels and days, peaking at around days 20 and 90 of the study. Despite serological indication of probable virus circulation and intense repeated sampling, none of the tested nasal swab samples were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, suggesting that, if the identified serological responses are the result of virus circulation, the virus may be present in nasal tissue of infected camels during a very narrow time window. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal testing of a closed camel herd with past history of MERS-CoV infection is compatible with the virus continuing to circulate in the herd despite lack of contact with other camels. It is likely that episodes of MERS-CoV infection in camels can take place with minimal presence of the virus in their nasal tissues, which has important implications for future surveillance and control of MERS-CoV in camel herds and prevention of its zoonotic transmission.

A restatement of the natural science evidence base regarding the source, spread and control of Campylobacter species causing human disease.

Food poisoning caused by Campylobacter (campylobacteriosis) is the most prevalent bacterial disease associated with the consumption of poultry, beef, lamb and pork meat and unpasteurized dairy products. A variety of livestock industry, food chain and public health interventions have been implemented or proposed to reduce disease prevalence, some of which entail costs for producers and retailers. This paper describes a project that set out to summarize the natural science evidence base relevant to campylobacteriosis control in as policy-neutral terms as possible. A series of evidence statements are listed and categorized according to the nature of the underlying information. The evidence summary forms the appendix to this paper and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material.

Student Perceptions of the Introduction of Pig Production, Management, and Health Teaching into the Veterinary Curriculum of a Muslim-Majority Country: A Case Study in Jordan.

Previously, pig production was not covered in the Jordan University of Science and Technology's (JUST) veterinary curriculum due to Jordan being a predominantly Muslim country, with few graduates practicing outside the Middle East. However, pig production, management, and health (PPMH) education is increasingly recognized as needed to meet the requirements to obtain European Association of Establishments for Veterinary Education (EAEVE) accreditation. This study assessed the introduction of pig-related teaching into JUST's veterinary curriculum and student perceptions of this content. A teaching intervention consisted of lectures, group sessions, and a virtual reality (VR) tour of a pig production (PP) unit. To ascertain participants' level of understanding of PPMH, perceptions of different teaching styles, and changes in perception and understanding of the topics, they answered a survey before and after the intervention. Students' knowledge of PP, husbandry, and perceived importance of PP awareness increased significantly, with 90% (n = 17) agreeing that the intervention improved comprehension of the areas mentioned. Participants' interest in PPMH learning increased, with 75% (n = 14) stating they would want to learn more about the topic. VR was significantly ranked the most useful in terms of learning (p = .029), and all participants stated the VR tour had a positive impact on their learning experience. Based on the findings, the focus of pig-related teaching in settings with limited awareness because of sociocultural reasons should be directed toward student-led exercises, group work, and use of technology such as VR. As a result of this intervention, blended PP has now been introduced to the JUST Veterinary curriculum.

Risk Factors for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection among Camel Populations, Southern Jordan, 2014-2018.

After the first detection of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in camels in Jordan in 2013, we conducted 2 consecutive surveys in 2014-2015 and 2017-2018 investigating risk factors for MERS-CoV infection among camel populations in southern Jordan. Multivariate analysis to control for confounding demonstrated that borrowing of camels, particularly males, for breeding purposes was associated with increased MERS-CoV seroprevalence among receiving herds, suggesting a potential route of viral transmission between herds. Increasing age, herd size, and use of water troughs within herds were also associated with increased seroprevalence. Closed herd management practices were found to be protective. Future vaccination strategies among camel populations in Jordan could potentially prioritize breeding males, which are likely to be shared between herds. In addition, targeted management interventions with the potential to reduce transmission between herds should be considered; voluntary closed herd schemes offer a possible route to achieving disease-free herds.

"We never boil our milk, it will cause sore udders and mastitis in our cows"- consumption practices, knowledge and milk safety awareness in Senegal.

BACKGROUND: Milk is a nutrient-rich food that makes an important contribution to diets in several Low and Middle Income Countries such as Senegal. Milk can also harbour several pathogenic microorganisms. As in other low and middle income countries, the dairy industry in Senegal is growing, with an expansion of farms to meet rapidly growing demand in the cities. However, most of the production still happens in the informal sector, and little is known about consumption of milk and milk products, or knowledge, awareness and practices of actors in informal dairy supply chains. METHODS: We conducted structured focus group discussions with dairy farmers and milk processors in three selected regions (Dakar, Thies and Fatick) in Senegal to investigate the consumption practices, awareness of milk borne hazards, and practices relevant to the risk of milk contamination to gain a deeper understanding of drivers of milk-borne diseases. Data on the consumption of milk and milk products were also collected using a closed questionnaire. RESULTS: Results indicate that milk is an important part of the diet in the study regionsand raw milk consumption is very common. The most common milk product consumed was fermented milk. Awareness of milk borne hazards was limited. Several farmers and processors reported risky practices, despite being aware of better practices, due to cultural beliefs. In households, children, pregnant women and older people were prioritised when milk and milk products were distributed. Dairy farmers and milk processors were more concerned with the lack of food for animals, low production and seasonality of production than the safety of the milk and milk products. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of awareness of milk borne infections and some traditional practices put milk and milk product consumers in the study area at high risk of milk borne diseases.. Prioritising certain sub population at households (Pregnant women and children) makes then vulnerable to milk-borne hazards. It will be challenging to change the risky practices as they are motivated by cultural beliefs hence the best strategy to promote milk safety will be to encourage the boiling of milk by consumers.

Herd-level prevalence of selected endemic infectious diseases of dairy cows in Great Britain.

To implement appropriate and effective disease control programs at the national level, up-to-date and unbiased information on disease frequency is needed. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of selected endemic infectious diseases in the population of dairy herds in Great Britain. Bulk milk tank (BMT) samples from 225 randomly selected dairy farms, stratified by region and herd size, were tested for antibodies against bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV), bovine herpesvirus type 1, Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis, Leptospira Hardjo, Salmonella spp., Coxiella burnetii, Fasciola hepatica, Neospora caninum, and Ostertagia ostertagi. Furthermore, the presence of BVDV, C. burnetii, and Chlamydia-like organisms was determined by PCR. The apparent herd prevalence was estimated as a weighted proportion of positive herds. The true prevalence was calculated when a test was used with known test characteristics for the cut-off value used. Among unvaccinated herds, the true prevalence of BMT antibodies against BVDV was estimated at 66% [95% confidence interval (CI): 56-77%], M. avium ssp. paratuberculosis 68% (95% CI: 59-77%), bovine herpesvirus type 1 62% (95% CI: 52-73%), Leptospira Hardjo 47% (95% CI: 34-60%), and Salmonella spp. 48% (95% CI: 39-56%). The apparent prevalence of BMT antibodies against C. burnetii was 80% (95% CI: 75-85%), F. hepatica 55% (95% CI: 48-62%), N. caninum 46% (95% CI: 38-54%), and O. ostertagi 95% (95% CI: 91-98%). The BVDV, C. burnetii, and Chlamydia-like antigens were detected in 5 (95% CI: 2-9%), 29 (95% CI: 21-36%), and 31% (95% CI: 24-38%) of herds, respectively. Our results show that dairy cows across GB are frequently exposed to the studied pathogens, which are endemic at high levels with some geographical variations. These prevalence estimates provide a much-needed basis to assess whether nationwide control programs for the studied pathogens are justified by their potential economic, environmental, and public health implications. Should surveillance and control programs be initiated, the estimates presented here are a baseline against which progress can be assessed.

Evidence for more cost-effective surveillance options for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and scrapie in Great Britain.

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) are an important public health concern. Since the emergence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during the 1980s and its link with human Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, active surveillance has been a key element of the European Union's TSE control strategy. Success of this strategy means that now, very few cases are detected compared with the number of animals tested. Refining surveillance strategies would enable resources to be redirected towards other public health priorities. Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed on several alternative strategies involving reducing the number of animals tested for BSE and scrapie in Great Britain and, for scrapie, varying the ratio of sheep sampled in the abattoir to fallen stock (which died on the farm). The most cost-effective strategy modelled for BSE involved reducing the proportion of fallen stock tested from 100% to 75%, producing a cost saving of ca GBP 700,000 per annum. If 50% of fallen stock were tested, a saving of ca GBP 1.4 million per annum could be achieved. However, these reductions are predicted to increase the period before surveillance can detect an outbreak. For scrapie, reducing the proportion of abattoir samples was the most cost-effective strategy modelled, with limited impact on surveillance effectiveness.

Cross-Sectional Study of Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Pig Farms in England.

Ingestion of undercooked meat has been proposed as an important source of human Toxoplasma gondii infection. To ascertain the contribution of meat consumption to the risk of human infection, estimates of the prevalence of infection in meat-producing animals are required. A cross-sectional study was conducted to assess T. gondii infection in pigs raised in England, to identify risk factors for infection, and to compare performance of two serological tests: modified agglutination test (MAT) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Blood samples from 2071 slaughter pigs originating from 131 farms were collected and 75 (3.6%) were found to be positive by MAT. Positive pigs originated from 24 farms. A subset of samples (n = 492) were tested using ELISA, and a significant disagreement (p < 0.001) was found between the two tests. An empirical Bayes approach was used to estimate the farm-level prevalence and the probability of each individual farm having at least one positive animal, considering the uncertainty arising from the sampling strategy and the imperfect test performance. The adjusted farm-level prevalence was 11.5% (95% credible interval of positive farms 8.4-16.0%). Two different criteria were used for classifying farms as infected: (1) ≥50% probability of having at least one infected pig (n = 5, 6.8%) and (2) ≥10% probability (n = 15, 20.5%). Data on putative risk factors were obtained for 73 farms. Using a 10% cutoff, the relative risk (RR) of infection was higher in farms where cats have direct access to pigs' food (RR = 2.6; p = 0.04), pigs have outdoor access (RR = 3.0; p = 0.04), and farms keeping ≤200 pigs (RR = 3.9; p = 0.02), with strong collinearity between the three variables. The findings suggest a low level of T. gondii infection in the farms studied, most of which are likely to send to slaughter batches comprising 100% uninfected pigs. These results provide key inputs to quantitatively assess the T. gondii risk posed by pork to consumers.

Interventions for avian influenza A (H5N1) risk management in live bird market networks.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 is endemic in Asia, with live bird trade as a major disease transmission pathway. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in northern Vietnam to investigate the structure of the live bird market (LBM) contact network and the implications for virus spread. Based on the movements of traders between LBMs, weighted and directed networks were constructed and used for social network analysis and individual-based modeling. Most LBMs were connected to one another, suggesting that the LBM network may support large-scale disease spread. Because of cross-border trade, it also may promote transboundary virus circulation. However, opportunities for disease control do exist. The implementation of thorough, daily disinfection of the market environment as well as of traders' vehicles and equipment in only a small number of hubs can disconnect the network dramatically, preventing disease spread. These targeted interventions would be an effective alternative to the current policy of a complete ban of LBMs in some areas. Some LBMs that have been banned still are very active, and they likely have a substantial impact on disease dynamics, exhibiting the highest levels of susceptibility and infectiousness. The number of trader visits to markets, information that can be collected quickly and easily, may be used to identify LBMs suitable for implementing interventions. This would not require prior knowledge of the force of infection, for which laboratory-confirmed surveillance would be necessary. These findings are of particular relevance for policy development in resource-scarce settings.

Consumers' behavior in quantitative microbial risk assessment for pathogens in raw milk: Incorporation of the likelihood of consumption as a function of storage time and temperature.

Foodborne disease as a result of raw milk consumption is an increasing concern in Western countries. Quantitative microbial risk assessment models have been used to estimate the risk of illness due to different pathogens in raw milk. In these models, the duration and temperature of storage before consumption have a critical influence in the final outcome of the simulations and are usually described and modeled as independent distributions in the consumer phase module. We hypothesize that this assumption can result in the computation, during simulations, of extreme scenarios that ultimately lead to an overestimation of the risk. In this study, a sensorial analysis was conducted to replicate consumers' behavior. The results of the analysis were used to establish, by means of a logistic model, the relationship between time-temperature combinations and the probability that a serving of raw milk is actually consumed. To assess our hypothesis, 2 recently published quantitative microbial risk assessment models quantifying the risks of listeriosis and salmonellosis related to the consumption of raw milk were implemented. First, the default settings described in the publications were kept; second, the likelihood of consumption as a function of the length and temperature of storage was included. When results were compared, the density of computed extreme scenarios decreased significantly in the modified model; consequently, the probability of illness and the expected number of cases per year also decreased. Reductions of 11.6 and 12.7% in the proportion of computed scenarios in which a contaminated milk serving was consumed were observed for the first and the second study, respectively. Our results confirm that overlooking the time-temperature dependency may yield to an important overestimation of the risk. Furthermore, we provide estimates of this dependency that could easily be implemented in future quantitative microbial risk assessment models of raw milk pathogens.

Salmonella in Chicken and Pork Meat as a Likely Major Contributor to Foodborne Illness in Peru.

Nontyphoidal Salmonella is one of the major causes of self-limiting diarrheal disease and the most common foodborne pathogen worldwide. It is an important contributor to the burden of foodborne illness in South America, including Peru, where chicken and pork are important vehicles for Salmonella infection. Salmonella infections are underreported, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where concerted action tackling Salmonella along the chicken and pork chains, from primary production to retail, is urgently needed. To support and inform the implementation of new strategies to reduce Salmonella contamination of chicken and pork, this study describes the frequency and distribution of foodborne outbreaks attributed to Salmonella in Peru and evaluates the level of Salmonella in chicken and pork meat sold in markets of three regions of Peru. To that end, we analyzed historical reports of foodborne outbreaks, levels of Salmonella in chicken and pork sold in markets, and the number of mesophiles in the collected meat samples. As a result, the microbiological analysis reveals a widespread contamination of chicken (77.1%) and pork (26.8%) with Salmonella. It also pinpoints Salmonella as the causative agent in nearly half of the outbreaks (47.0%) where the potential origin is identified over a 11-year period with chicken, mayonnaise, and pork being the most likely food vehicles. These results suggest that Salmonella is a major contributor to foodborne illness in Peru and that the monitoring of mesophiles could be a good strategy for surveillance, generating data to support source attribution studies and ultimately evidence-informed policies.

Risk factors for COVID-19 mortality in hospitalized patients in Bolivia.

Objectives: This study aimed to ascertain which factors are associated with higher risk of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 Bolivian patients. Methods: This retrospective observational study assessed risk factors associated with mortality in patients (n = 549) hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 infection in a Bolivian hospital between April 6, 2020, and August 18, 2022. Results: The results provide evidence of association between male sex (odds ratio [OR] = 1.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-2.6), older age, 51-61 years-old (OR = 5.2, 95% CI 2.2-12.6), 62-70 years-old (OR = 8.7, 95% CI 3.7-20.5), >70 years-old (OR = 16.9, 95% CI 7.1-39.9), and blood group A (OR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.1-3.4) with higher mortality risk. The strong association between mortality and relatively young age, may be due to high frequency of undiagnosed comorbidities. Vaccination was associated with a reduction in mortality only when time period of hospitalization was not adjusted for. Conclusion: Among hospitalized patients in Bolivia male sex, older age, and blood group A are associated with higher mortality risk. Mortality risk increased markedly from a relatively young age and decreased in parallel to the uptake of the vaccination program. However, the gradual reduction in mortality can also be due to improved patient management and changes in natural immunity and virulence of circulating strains as the pandemic progressed.

Global prioritization of endemic zoonotic diseases for conducting surveillance in domestic animals to protect public health.

Zoonotic diseases (zoonoses) originating from domestic animals pose a significant risk to people's health and livelihoods, in addition to jeopardizing animal health and production. Effective surveillance of endemic zoonoses at the animal level is crucial to assessing the disease burden and risk, and providing early warning to prevent epidemics in animals and spillover to humans. Here we aimed to prioritize and characterize zoonoses for which surveillance in domestic animals is important to prevent human infections at a global scale. A multi-criteria qualitative approach was used, where disease-specific information was obtained across literature of the leading international health organizations. Thirty-two zoonoses were prioritized, all of which have multi-regional spread, cause unexceptional human infections and have domestic animal hosts as important sources or sentinels of zoonotic infections. Most diseases involve multiple animal hosts and/or modes of zoonotic transmission, where a lack of specific clinical signs in animals further complicates surveillance. We discuss the challenges of animal health surveillance in endemic and resource-limited settings, as well as potential avenues for improvement such as the multi-disease, multi-sectoral and digital surveillance approaches. Our study will support global capacity-building efforts to strengthen the surveillance and control of endemic zoonoses at their animal sources. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Unravelling transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis to dairy calves: results of a lifelong longitudinal study.

Johne's disease (JD) is a chronic disease of ruminants endemic in the UK and other countries and responsible for large economic losses for the dairy sector. JD is caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP), which typically infects calves that remain latently infected during a long period, making early detection of infection challenging. Cow to calf transmission can occur in-utero, via milk/colostrum or faecal-orally. Understanding of the different transmission routes to calves is important in informing control recommendations. Our aim in this longitudinal study was to measure the association between the transmission routes via the dam and the environment on a calf subsequently testing serologically positive for MAP. The study population comprised of 439 UK dairy calves from 6 herds enrolled between 2012 and 2013. These calves were followed up from birth until 2023. At birth individual calf data was captured. During follow-up, individuals entering the milking herd were quarterly tested for the presence of MAP antibodies using milk ELISA. Cox regression models were used to measure the association between exposure from the dam (in-utero and/or colostrum) or from the environment (long time in dirty yard) and time to first detection of MAP infection. An association between calves born to positive dams and probability of having a MAP positive test result remained after excluding potential MAP transmission via colostrum (Hazard ratio: 2.24; 95% CI: 1.14 - 4.41). Calves unlikely to be infected with MAP via the in-utero or colostrum route, had 3.68 (95% CI: 3.68 1.45-9.33) higher hazard of a positive test result when they stayed longer in a dirty calving area. The effect of the dam infection status on transmission to calves precedes the dam's seroconversion and persists after excluding the potential role of transmission via colostrum. The association between time spent in a dirty calving area and probability of a MAP positive test result highlights the role of environmental contamination as a source of infection in addition to the dam.

A cross-sectional study of Q fever in Camels: Risk factors for infection, the role of small ruminants and public health implications for desert-dwelling pastoral communities.

Q fever represents an important 'neglected zoonosis', with high prevalences recorded across the Middle East region. Among rural desert-dwelling communities in the region, camel milk is largely consumed raw, due to perceptions of dromedaries as a uniquely clean livestock species mentioned in the Qur'an and Islamic hadith, while milk from other livestock species is usually boiled. As a result, camels present a unique public health threat among such communities from milk-borne pathogens, including Coxiella burnetii. In view of this, a cross-sectional study was conducted among dromedary herds in southern Jordan between September 2017 and October 2018, including 404 camels from 121 randomly selected herds. In addition, 510 household members associated with these herds were interviewed regarding potential high-risk practices for zoonotic transmission. Weight adjusted camel population seroprevalence for C. burnetii was 49.6% (95% CI: 44.7-54.5), with evidence of maternally derived immunity in calves ≤6 months old. Adjusted herd-level prevalence was 76.0% (95% CI 72.7-80.2). It was estimated 30.4% (144/477) of individuals consumed raw milk from infected herds monthly or more. Following multivariable logistic regression analysis, seropositive status in camels was found to be associated with increasing age, high herd tick burdens, keeping the herd together throughout the year including when calving, and owning larger (>50) sheep and goat flocks, with goats presenting a higher risk than sheep. Racing camel status was found to be protective. Socioculturally appropriate interventions aimed at raising awareness of potential risks associated with drinking raw camel milk, alongside appropriate livestock management interventions, should be considered.

Detection and Isolation of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Beef from Food Markets and Fecal Samples of Dairy Calves in the Peruvian Central Highlands.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157:H7 is a food and waterborne pathogen with severe public health implications. We report the first-time isolation of this pathogen in the Central Highlands of Peru through standardized culture procedures and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Escherichia coli strains were cultured from rectal-anal swabs from dairy calves and beef from food markets. The latex agglutination test was used to detect O157 and H7 antigens, and multiplex real-time PCR was carried out to detect virulence-related genes. The STEC O157:H7 strains were isolated from 3.5% (1/28) of beef samples and from 6.0% (3/50) of dairy calves that also carried both eaeA and stx1 genes. Therefore, this pathogen is a potential cause of food/waterborne disease in the region, and its surveillance in both livestock and their products should be improved to characterize the impact of its zoonotic transmission. From 2010 to 2020, E. coli was suspected in 10 outbreaks reported to the Peruvian Ministry of Health. Isolates from future outbreaks should be characterized to assess the burden posed by STEC O157:H7 in Peru.

The disproportionate case-fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries with the highest vaccination rates and the rest of the world.

Objectives: The global reported cumulative case-fatality ratios (rCFRs) and excess mortality rates of the 20 countries with the highest coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rates, the rest of the world and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) were compared before and after the commencement of vaccination programmes. Methods: A time series model was used to understand the trend of rCFR over time, and a generalized linear mixed model was used to understand the effect of vaccination on rCFR. Results: By 31 December 2022, an average of 260.3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine per 100 population had been administered in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 152.1 doses in the rest of the world and 51.2 doses in SSA. The mean rCFR of COVID-19 had decreased by 69.0% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, 26.5% in the rest of the world and 7.6% in SSA. Excess mortality had decreased by 48.7% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 62.5% in the rest of the world and 60.7% in SSA. In a generalized linear mixed model, the reported number of vaccine doses administered (/100 population) (odds ratio 0.64) was associated with a steeper reduction in COVID-19 rCFR. Conclusions: Vaccine equity and faster roll-out across the world is critically important in reducing COVID-19 transmission and CFR.

Development of core competencies for field veterinary epidemiology training programs.

A workforce with the adequate field epidemiology knowledge, skills and abilities is the foundation of a strong and effective animal health system. Field epidemiology training is conducted in several countries to meet the increased global demand for such a workforce. However, core competencies for field veterinary epidemiology have not been identified and agreed upon globally, leading to the development of different training curricula. Having a set of agreed core competencies can harmonize field veterinary epidemiology training. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) initiated a collective, iterative, and participative process to achieve this and organized two expert consultative workshops in 2018 to develop core competencies for field veterinary epidemiology at the frontline and intermediate levels. Based on these expert discussions, 13 competencies were identified for the frontline and intermediate levels. These competencies were organized into three domains: epidemiological surveillance and studies; field investigation, preparedness and response; and One Health, communication, ethics and professionalism. These competencies can be used to facilitate the development of field epidemiology training curricula for veterinarians, adapted to country training needs, or customized for training other close disciplines. The competencies can also be useful for mentors and employers to monitor and evaluate the progress of their mentees, or to guide the selection process during the recruitment of new staff.