Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale.

Species' range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.

Waterbird Species Are Highly Sensitive to Wetland Traits: Simulation-Based Conservation Strategies for the Birds of the Sicilian Wetlands (Italy).

In this study, we (a) formulated a general hypothesis about how wetland (functional and structural) traits influence avian diversity, (b) turned this hypothesis into a non-parametric Bayesian network, (c) disentangled the direct and indirect effects of the variables influencing waterbird species, and (d) simulated the changes expected to the levels of avian diversity as a result of numerous counterfactual and management scenarios. We applied our framework to the Sicilian wetlands as a whole; then, we downscaled simulations locally to a wetland of particular interest (Pantano Bruno). We found that (1) waterbird species are highly sensitive to wetland traits; (2) wetland traits have both direct and indirect effects upon alpha avian diversity; (3) the direct and indirect effects of wetland traits can be contrasting; (4) water level fluctuations (benefit), diversions (cost), and salinity (cost) are key factors for waterbird conservation; (5) these wetlands have the potential for hosting a level of alpha avian diversity that is double the baseline (from 19 to 38 species); (6) these wetlands are prone to ecological collapse if all traits deteriorate (from 19 to 6 species per wetland); and (7) the ecological information gained at the regional scale can be properly downscaled to the local scale to make inferences on single wetlands.

Simulation Modeling Unveils the Unalike Effects of Alternative Strategies for Waterbird Conservation in the Coastal Wetlands of Sardinia (Italy).

The Sardinian wetlands (Italy) act as stopover sites for many migratory birds along the central eastern Mediterranean bird flyway. These wetlands are now severely threatened by human activities and climate change. Accordingly, we built a simulation framework to predict the effects of several counterfactual and management scenarios on the level of avian diversity in the coastal wetlands of Sardinia. We found that the alpha avian diversity (i.e., the mean number of avian species per wetland) is destined to (a) decrease due to the most likely increase in water salinity, water discharges, and tourism pressure; and (b) halve (from 14.9 to 7.4, with 9 wetlands out of 22 predicted to host only between two and five waterbird species) in the worst possible scenario. However, the results also showed that proper management strategies could prevent and reverse such outcomes. Restrictions on tourism activities, water desalination, prevention of future saltwater intrusions, and the prohibition of water discharges could markedly favor the avian diversity in these wetlands, with an expected increase in the alpha avian diversity from 14.9 to 24.8 (and 10 wetlands out of 22 predicted to host from 29 to 32 waterbird species) in the best possible scenario. The importance of our results could be emphasized in the management plans of these important wetlands, most of which belong to the Natura 2000 network.

Overlap and Segregation among Multiple 3D Home Ranges: A Non-Pairwise Metric with Demonstrative Application to the Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni.

In this study we solved the issue of measuring the degree of overlap/segregation among an arbitrarily large number (n ≥ 2) of 3D volumetric home ranges (i.e., x, y, and hg; where hg is height above ground level) for the first time. For this purpose, we introduced the novel non-pairwise index MVOI (Multiple Volumetric Overlap Index) and its complement to 100 MVSI (Multiple Volumetric Segregation Index). Regardless of the number of 3D volumetric home ranges, the MVOI and MVSI generate a single score of overlap/segregation between 0 and 100, making ecological interpretation much easier and more meaningful when compared to n × n pairwise overlap indices. As a case study, we applied the MVOI and MVSI to 12,081 GPS points of five lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) during the nesting period at Santeramo in Colle (Apulia region; Italy) in an area with the most elevated density of lesser kestrels in urban colonies worldwide. The 3D volumetric home ranges ranged between 1.79 km3 and 8.19 km3. We found that the tracked birds had different vertical profiles, possibly to limit intraspecific competition, resulting in a 3D home range overlap that was only 61.1% of the 2D overlap and 52.8% of the probabilistic one.

Five decades of breeding populations census for 12 species of colonial waterbirds in northwestern Italy.

Colonial waterbirds, a major biodiversity element occurring in the core of ultra-anthropized Europe, are ideal indicators of the wellness of inland wetlands. Nonetheless, there is a critical knowledge gap in their trend and population status. We present an uninterrupted 47 years-long dataset of the breeding populations of 12 species of colonial waterbirds (Ardeidae, Phalacrocoracidae, Plataleidae, Threskiornitidae) throughout a 58,000 km2 agricultural region in the higher Po basin (NW Italy). A trained team of collaborators censused with standardized field techniques the number of nests of each species at 419 colonies in the 1972-2018 period, summing up a total of 236,316 records. Data cleaning and standardization were performed for each census year, ensuring robust and consistent data. This dataset is among the largest ever collected for a guild of European vertebrates. It has already been used to describe the factors influencing population trends, and still offers opportunities to explore a wide range of key ecological processes such as biological invasions, global change consequences and biodiversity impact of agricultural practices.

Preserving the Mediterranean bird flyways: Assessment and prioritization of 38 main wetlands under human and climate threats in Sardinia and Sicily (Italy).

Wetlands provide a wide range of ecosystem services, including supplying the food and shelter for a rich assemblage of waterbirds and providing the stopover sites that allow birds to make migratory journeys. Human impact and the ongoing climate change are however reducing the ability of wetlands to provide such important services. Through field surveys, GIS analyses and climate projections, we assessed the status of, and threats to, 38 largest wetlands belonging to the Mediterranean bird flyways in Sardinia and Sicily (Italy). We then combined ten decision criteria about avifaunal diversity and human/climate threats in order to prioritize the studied wetlands from most to least worthy of urgent interventions. Results showed that the main wetlands of these two regions have distinct demands with regard to the kind of actions required, going from the mitigation of tourism pressure to the prevention of climate-induced water shortage in summer. Furthermore, clear priorities for interventions emerged in both regions. Our study has direct implications for managers and researchers attempting to assess wetland conditions and set conservation priorities, thus offering a tool for deciding urgent interventions on the main stopover sites along the Mediterranean bird flyways.

Measuring the Degree of Overlap and Segregation among Multiple Probabilistic Home Ranges: A New Index with Illustrative Application to the Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni.

Home range overlap/segregation has several important applications to wildlife conservation and management. In this work, we first address the issue of measuring the degree of overlap/segregation among an arbitrarily large number (i.e., n ≥ 2) of probabilistic animal home ranges (i.e., utilization distributions). This subject matter has recently been solved for home ranges measured as polygons (e.g., percent minimum convex polygons and multinuclear cores) but not yet for probabilistic ones. Accordingly, we introduce a novel index named the PGOI (probabilistic general overlap index), and its complement, the PGSI (probabilistic general segregation index), an index for computation of probabilistic home range overlap/segregation at individual, population and species levels. Whatever the number of probabilistic home ranges, the PGOI returns a single score ranging in the [0, 100] interval. We applied the PGOI to five lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) at Santeramo in Colle (Apulia region; Southern Italy) as a case study. Our new index can be applied to any animal species and to home ranges derived from any type of probabilistic home range estimator.

Habitat, climate, topography and management differently affect occurrence in declining avian species: Implications for conservation in changing environments.

Climate and land-use change are the most severe threats to biodiversity; their effects are often intermingled, also with those of landscape/habitat management. Birds of mountain grassland are declining throughout Europe. Disentangling climate effects from those of land-cover and management on their occurrence is essential to identify distribution drivers, potential impacts of climate/land-use changes, and effective conservation strategies. We investigated the occurrence of water pipit (elevation specialist), skylark and red-backed shrike (elevation generalists) in Central Apennines, Italy (750-2130 m asl), using point counts. Topographic/climatic, land-cover and management fine-scale variables were considered as potential occurrence predictors in Generalized Linear Models. For all species, combining different types of predictors led to the most accurate models, but the relative importance of single-groups varied: land cover was the most important for skylark, climate/topography for water pipit, all three groups had similar support for red-backed shrike. Skylark was positively affected by solar radiation and grassland cover, and negatively by bare ground, hedgerows, rocks, shrubland, ski-pistes and buildings, confirming sensitivity to anthropic alteration of semi-natural grassland. Water pipit was favoured by grazing and negatively impacted by shrubland and average temperature (most important predictor). Red-backed shrike was affected negatively by broadleaved forest and grazing occurrence, quadratically by isolated shrubs and positively by grassland cover. Climate was a fundamental determinant of water pipit occurrence, but not for the other species. Land-cover was important for all species and also management factors were invariably included in models. Climate, habitat and management factors differently contributed to occurrence patterns in these declining species. Conservation strategies need to embrace landscape planning to preserve grassland extents/mosaics, identify climate refugia for water pipit and implement dedicated management (preventing new ski-pistes over areas suitable for birds and carefully planning grazing). It should be feasible to combine local, sustainable economies with biodiversity conservation into landscape planning for Central Apennines.

Mercury, lead and copper in feathers and excreta of small passerine species in relation to foraging guilds and age of feathers.

In the present study excreta and feathers of five species of adult passerine birds from Montepulciano wetland (Siena, Italy) were assayed for trace elements between January and August 2006. Lead concentrations varied from 16.31 to 26.50 mg/kg and were found strictly related to the age of feathers. Copper levels were found to be high mainly in insectivorous birds (9.68 mg/kg) and were probably influenced by local use of copper-based agricultural fungicides. Mercury accumulation in feathers varied between species from 0.08 to 0.73 mg/kg. The role offeeding habits on trace elements levels in feathers and excreta is discussed.

Using genetic markers to unravel the origin of birds converging towards pre-migratory sites.

Identifying patterns of individual movements in spatial and temporal scales can provide valuable insight into the structure of populations and the dynamics of communities and ecosystems. Especially for migrating birds, that can face a variety of unfavorable conditions along their journey, resolving movements of individuals across their annual cycle is necessary in order to design better targeted conservation strategies. Here, we studied the movements of a small migratory falcon, the Lesser Kestrel (Falco naumanni), by genetically assigning feathers from individuals of unknown origin that concentrate in large roosts during the pre-migratory period. Our findings suggest that birds from multiple breeding populations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean region move towards two pre-migratory sites in the Balkans, some of them detouring greatly from their expected flyways, travelling more than 500 km to reach these sites and prepare for the post-nuptial migration. By identifying the origin of individuals using the pre-migratory sites, not only we provide a better understanding of the possible impact of local threats at these sites on multiple breeding populations but also inform the design of effective conservation actions for the species.

Climate change will seriously impact bird species dwelling above the treeline: A prospective study for the Italian Alps.

High mountain systems are predicted to be especially vulnerable to the impact of climate change, with the climatically-constrained tree limit rapidly shifted upslope. In turn, the impact of upward treeline migration on mountain-dwelling bird species is expected to significantly reduce habitat suitability. We developed the first projection of the expected climate-driven rise of the whole treeline (19,256km) of the Italian Alps. The study area extends over 20,700km2, ranging over 550km in longitude and 320km in latitude. We then investigated how much the expected treeline rise will induce a) shrinking and shifting of the elevation range and b) loss in suitable habitat for the flagship species rock ptarmigan, an alpine bird species dwelling above the treeline and, similarly to many other alpine species, highly vulnerable to treeline rise. We also investigated the potential gain in suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan due to the climate-driven upshift in the uppermost thermal limit. At lower altitudes (1500-1600m a.s.l.), the average expected upshift in the current treeline resulted in 195, 274 and 354m over the short (2010-2039), medium (2040-2069) and long term (2070-2099) respectively. Above 2400m a.s.l., it was less than 30m even in the long term. Overall, during the three climate periods the extent of suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan above the current treeline is projected to decrease by 28.12%, 38.43% and 49.11% respectively. In contrast, the expected gain in suitable habitat due to the shift in the uppermost thermal limit will be severely restrained by the limited surface extension in the top portion of the Italian Alps. The presented approach can promote similar studies elsewhere in the globe, providing a regional perspective to the projection of climate change impact on bird species dwelling above the treeline.