Caregiver Burden and Quality of Life Across Alzheimer's Disease Severity Stages.

INTRODUCTION: The objective is to estimate the caregiver burden in terms of informal care time, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and societal costs by disease severity (mild, moderate, or severe) and living situation (community-dwelling or institutionalized) of persons with AD (PwAD); and PwAD HRQoL. METHODS: Caregivers were recruited through an online panel provider in the Netherlands. The survey used validated instruments, including iMTA Valuation of Informal Care Questionnaire, CarerQoL, and EQ-5D-5L. RESULTS: One hundred two caregivers participated. PwADs received, on average, 26 hours of informal care per week. Informal care costs were higher for community-dwelling PwADs compared with institutionalized PwADs (€480 and €278, respectively). On the EQ-5D-5L, caregivers scored on average 0.797, reflecting a utility decrement of 0.065 compared with an age-matched population. Proxy-rated utility scores for PwADs decreased with increasing disease severity (0.455, 0.314, and 0.212 for mild, moderate, and severe AD, respectively). Institutionalised PwADs had lower utility scores than community-dwelling PwADs (0.590 vs. 0.421). There was no difference in informal care time, societal costs, CarerQol scores, and caregiver EQ-5D-5L scores between disease severities. CONCLUSION: The burden of AD extends to caregivers in terms of HRQoL and time investment, regardless of the disease severity of the target population. These impacts should be incorporated into the evaluation of new AD interventions.

Cost-effectiveness models for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias: IPECAD modeling workshop cross-comparison challenge.

INTRODUCTION: The credibility of model-based economic evaluations of Alzheimer's disease (AD) interventions is central to appropriate decision-making in a policy context. We report on the International PharmacoEconomic Collaboration on Alzheimer's Disease (IPECAD) Modeling Workshop Challenge. METHODS: Two common benchmark scenarios, for the hypothetical treatment of AD mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and mild dementia, were developed jointly by 29 participants. Model outcomes were summarized, and cross-comparisons were discussed during a structured workshop. RESULTS: A broad concordance was established among participants. Mean 10-year restricted survival and time in MCI in the control group ranged across 10 MCI models from 6.7 to 9.5 years and 3.4 to 5.6 years, respectively; and across 4 mild dementia models from 5.4 to 7.9 years (survival) and 1.5 to 4.2 years (mild dementia). DISCUSSION: The model comparison increased our understanding of methods, data used, and disease progression. We established a collaboration framework to assess cost-effectiveness outcomes, an important step toward transparent and credible AD models.

The Impact of Amyloid PET Disclosure on Quality of Life in Patients With Young Onset Dementia.

INTRODUCTION: The impact of amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) imaging on patient health outcomes for individuals with dementia is unknown. In the present study, we explored the association between diagnostic outcome and clinician's level of certainty with quality of life (QoL) after [18F]flutemetamol PET results were disclosed in young onset dementia patients in a memory clinic cohort. METHODS: In 154 patients suspected of dementia, QoL was measured before and after [18F]flutemetamol PET results were disclosed. Multiple regression analyses were conducted with (changed) general and disease-specific QoL measures as dependent factors [QoL-Alzheimer disease (AD) and EQ-5D Dutch tariff] and etiological diagnosis and clinician's certainty as independent factors. RESULTS: (Change in) diagnosis of AD was associated to QOL in 2 of the 4 analyses (utility-based QoL ß=0.15, P=0.010; disease-specific QoL ß=2.0, P=0.037). Diagnostic certainty was associated to QOL in 1 of the 4 analyses (generic QoL ß=0.002, P=0.028). DISCUSSION: The diverse results in this explorative analysis do not reflect a univocal association between diagnosis, certainty, and QoL. Nevertheless, this result could be interpreted as a possible potential for advanced diagnostic technologies for AD, which requires confirmation in future research.

A validation study of the CarerQol instrument in informal caregivers of people with dementia from eight European countries.

PURPOSE: Informal care constitutes an important part of the total care for people with dementia. Therefore, the impact of the syndrome on their caregivers as well as that of health and social care services for people with dementia should be considered. This study investigated the convergent and clinical validity of the CarerQol instrument, which measures and values the impact of providing informal care, in a multi-country sample of caregivers for people with dementia. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from a sample of 451 respondents in eight European countries, collected by the Actifcare project, were evaluated. Convergent validity was analysed with Spearman's correlation coefficients and multivariate correlations between the CarerQol-7D utility score and dimension scores, and other similar quality of life measures such as CarerQol-VAS, ICECAP-O, and EQ-5D. Clinical validity was evaluated by bivariate and multivariate analyses of the degree to which the CarerQol instrument can differentiate between characteristics of caregivers, care receivers and caregiving situation. Country dummies were added to test CarerQol score differences between countries. RESULTS: The mean CarerQol utility score was 77.6 and varied across countries from 74.3 (Italy) to 82.3 (Norway). The scores showed moderate to strong positive correlations with the CarerQol-VAS, ICECAP-O, and EQ-5D health problems score of the caregiver. Multivariate regression analysis showed that various characteristics of the caregiver, care receiver and caregiving situation were associated with caregiver outcomes, but there was no evidence of a country-level effect. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the convergent and clinical validity of the CarerQol instrument to evaluate the impact of providing informal care for people with dementia.

A validation study of the ICECAP-O in informal carers of people with dementia from eight European Countries.

PURPOSE: The pressure on healthcare budgets remains high, partially due to the ageing population. Economic evaluation can be a helpful tool to inform resource allocation in publicly financed systems. Such evaluations frequently use health-related outcome measures. However, in areas such as care of older people, improving health outcomes is not necessarily the main focus of care interventions and broader outcome measures, including outcomes for those providing informal care, may be preferred when evaluating such interventions. This paper validates a recently introduced well-being measure, the ICECAP-O, in a population of informal carers for people with dementia from eight European countries. METHODS: Convergent and discriminant validity tests were performed to validate the ICECAP-O using data obtained in a sample of 451 respondents from Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden and the UK. These respondents completed a number of standardized questionnaires within the framework of the Actifcare project. RESULTS: The ICECAP-O performed well among informal carers, in terms of both convergent and discriminant validity. In the multivariate analysis, it was found to be significantly associated with the age of the person with dementia, EQ-5D-5L health problem index of the person with dementia, carer-patient relationship, care recipient CDR, carer LSNS Score, the PAI score, and Perseverance Time. CONCLUSION: The ICECAP-O appears to be a valid measure of well-being in informal carers for people with dementia. The ICECAP-O may therefore be useful as an outcome measure in economic evaluations of interventions aimed at such informal carers, when these aim to improve well-being beyond health.

Caregiver profiles in dementia related to quality of life, depression and perseverance time in the European Actifcare study: the importance of social health.

OBJECTIVES: To identify caregiver profiles of persons with mild to moderate dementia and to investigate differences between identified caregiver profiles, using baseline data of the international prospective cohort study Actifcare. METHODS: A latent class analysis was used to discover different caregiver profiles based on disease related characteristics of 453 persons with dementia and their 453 informal caregivers. These profiles were compared with regard to quality of life (CarerQoL score), depressive symptoms (HADS-D score) and perseverance time. RESULTS: A 5-class model was identified, with the best Bayesian Information Criterion value, significant likelihood ratio test (p < 0.001), high entropy score (0.88) and substantive interpretability. The classes could be differentiated on two axes: (i) caregivers' age, relationship with persons with dementia, severity of dementia, and (ii) tendency towards stress and difficulty adapting to stress. Classes showed significant differences with all dependent variables, and were labelled 'older low strain', 'older intermediate strain', 'older high strain', 'younger low strain' and 'younger high strain'. CONCLUSION: Differences exist between types of caregivers that explain variability in quality of life, depressive symptoms and perseverance time. Our findings may give direction for tailored interventions for caregivers of persons with dementia, which may improve social health and reduce health care costs.

Predicting progression to dementia in persons with mild cognitive impairment using cerebrospinal fluid markers.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to determine the added value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) to clinical and imaging tests to predict progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to any type of dementia. METHODS: The risk of progression to dementia was estimated using two logistic regression models based on 250 MCI participants: the first included standard clinical measures (demographic, clinical, and imaging test information) without CSF biomarkers, and the second included standard clinical measures with CSF biomarkers. RESULTS: Adding CSF improved predictive accuracy with 0.11 (scale from 0-1). Of all participants, 136 (54%) had a change in risk score of 0.10 or higher (which was considered clinically relevant), of whom in 101, it was in agreement with their dementia status at follow-up. DISCUSSION: An individual person's risk of progression from MCI to dementia can be improved by relying on CSF biomarkers in addition to recommended clinical and imaging tests for usual care.

Early cost-utility analysis of general and cerebrospinal fluid-specific Alzheimer's disease biomarkers for hypothetical disease-modifying treatment decision in mild cognitive impairment.

INTRODUCTION: The study aimed to determine the room for improvement of a perfect cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker and the societal incremental net monetary benefit of CSF in subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) assuming a hypothetical disease-modifying Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatment. METHODS: A decision model compared current practice to a perfect biomarker and to two strategies positioning CSF as add-on test when current practice concluded the presence or absence of AD. RESULTS: The simulated MCI population was aged on average 68.3 and 49% had AD. The room for improvement by the perfect CSF test was 0.39 quality adjusted life years, €33,622 ($43,372) savings, 2.0 potential beneficial treatment years, and 1.3-year delay in dementia conversion. DISCUSSION: The results indicated more potential benefit from a biomarker positioned to verify subjects who are not expected to have AD (i.e., to prevent undertreatment) rather than to verify subjects expected to have AD (prevent overtreatment). Sensitivity analyses explored different CSF positions.

Optimizing the use of expert panel reference diagnoses in diagnostic studies of multidimensional syndromes.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of a gold standard, a panel of experts can be invited to assign a reference diagnosis for use in research. Available literature offers limited guidance on assembling and working with an expert panel for this purpose. We aimed to develop a protocol for an expert panel consensus diagnosis and evaluated its applicability in a pilot project. METHODS: An adjusted Delphi method was used, which started with the assessment of clinical vignettes by 3 experts individually, followed by a consensus discussion meeting to solve diagnostic discrepancies. A panel facilitator ensured that all experts were able to express their views, and encouraged the use of argumentation to arrive at a specific diagnosis, until consensus was reached by all experts. Eleven vignettes of patients suspected of having a primary neurodegenerative disease were presented to the experts. Clinical information was provided stepwise and included medical history, neurological, physical and cognitive function, brain MRI scan, and follow-up assessments over 2 years. After the consensus discussion meeting, the procedure was evaluated by the experts. RESULTS: The average degree of consensus for the reference diagnosis increased from 52% after individual assessment of the vignettes to 94% after the consensus discussion meeting. Average confidence in the diagnosis after individual assessment was 85%. This did not increase after the consensus discussion meeting. The process evaluation led to several recommendations for improvement of the protocol. CONCLUSION: A protocol for attaining a reference diagnosis based on expert panel consensus was shown feasible in research practice.

Diagnosing Alzheimer's disease: a systematic review of economic evaluations.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study is to systematically review the literature on economic evaluations of interventions for the early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related disorders and to describe their general and methodological characteristics. We focused on the diagnostic aspects of the decision models to assess the applicability of existing decision models for the evaluation of the recently revised diagnostic research criteria for AD. METHODS: PubMed and the National Institute for Health Research Economic Evaluation database were searched for English-language publications related to economic evaluations on diagnostic technologies. Trial-based economic evaluations were assessed using the Consensus on Health Economic Criteria list. Modeling studies were assessed using the framework for quality assessment of decision-analytic models. RESULTS: The search retrieved 2109 items, from which eight decision-analytic modeling studies and one trial-based economic evaluation met all eligibility criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Diversity among the study objective and characteristics was considerable and, despite considerable methodological quality, several flaws were indicated. Recommendations were focused on diagnostic aspects and the applicability of existing models for the evaluation of recently revised diagnostic research criteria for AD.

Determinants of care costs of patients with dementia or cognitive impairment.

INTRODUCTION: Dementia causes a high burden on patients, caregivers, and societies. Decision analytic models to support allocation of resources are often developed making use of cost-of-illness (COI) studies. However, current COI study estimates are highly variable due to care setting and methodological issues. We aim to explore variables explaining the variation of (formal and informal) health care costs of cognitive disorders, using a broad spectrum of variables, including patient, caregiver, and social context variables. METHODS: A bottom-up COI study design was used in which a societal viewpoint and a validated method to measure and value informal care was applied. Data were analyzed using univariate, multivariate, and forward regression analyses. RESULTS: The average 1-year health care sector costs were &OV0556;26,140 ($34,505 or £17,775) and &OV0556;11,931 ($15,749 or £8113) for patient and family. The analyses indicated that cognitive functioning, caregiver burden, patient sex, and instrumental activities of daily living were significantly associated with care costs independently. CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive functioning and instrumental activities of daily living are important variables to include in health care decision models. We recommend also including caregiver burden and patient sex in decision models for health policy decision makers to fully reflect the heterogeneity of the disease progression of cognitive disorders.

Impact of molecular imaging on the diagnostic process in a memory clinic.

BACKGROUND: [(11)C]Pittsburgh compound B ([(11)C]PIB) and [(18)F]-2-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose ([(18)F]FDG) PET measure fibrillar amyloid-ß load and glucose metabolism, respectively. We evaluated the impact of these tracers on the diagnostic process in a memory clinic population. METHODS: One hundred fifty-four patients underwent paired dynamic [(11)C]PIB and static [(18)F]FDG PET scans shortly after completing a standard dementia screening. Two-year clinical follow-up data were available for 39 patients. Parametric PET images were assessed visually and results were reported to the neurologists responsible for the initial diagnosis. Outcome measures were (change in) clinical diagnosis and confidence in that diagnosis before and after disclosing PET results. RESULTS: [(11)C]PIB scans were positive in 40 of 66 (61%) patients with a clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD), 5 of 18 (28%) patients with frontotemporal dementia (FTD), 4 of 5 (80%) patients with Lewy body dementia, and 3 of 10 (30%) patients with other dementias. [(18)F]FDG uptake patterns matched the clinical diagnosis in 38 of 66 (58%) of AD patients, and in 6 of 18 (33%) FTD patients. PET results led to a change in diagnosis in 35 (23%) patients. This only occurred when prior diagnostic certainty was <90%. Diagnostic confidence increased from 71 ± 17% before to 87 ± 16% after PET (p < .001). Two-year clinical follow-up (n = 39) showed that [(11)C]PIB and [(18)F]FDG predicted progression to AD for patients with mild cognitive impairment, and that the diagnosis of dementia established after PET remained unchanged in 96% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: In a memory clinic setting, combined [(11)C]PIB and [(18)F]FDG PET are of additional value on top of the standard diagnostic work-up, especially when prior diagnostic confidence is low.

Diagnostic and economic evaluation of new biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease: the research protocol of a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: New research criteria for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) have recently been developed to enable an early diagnosis of AD pathophysiology by relying on emerging biomarkers. To enable efficient allocation of health care resources, evidence is needed to support decision makers on the adoption of emerging biomarkers in clinical practice. The research goals are to 1) assess the diagnostic test accuracy of current clinical diagnostic work-up and emerging biomarkers in MRI, PET and CSF, 2) perform a cost-consequence analysis and 3) assess long-term cost-effectiveness by an economic model. METHODS/DESIGN: In a cohort design 241 consecutive patients suspected of having a primary neurodegenerative disease are approached in four academic memory clinics and followed for two years. Clinical data and data on quality of life, costs and emerging biomarkers are gathered.Diagnostic test accuracy is determined by relating the clinical practice and new research criteria diagnoses to a reference diagnosis. The clinical practice diagnosis at baseline is reflected by a consensus procedure among experts using clinical information only (no biomarkers). The diagnosis based on the new research criteria is reflected by decision rules that combine clinical and biomarker information. The reference diagnosis is determined by a consensus procedure among experts based on clinical information on the course of symptoms over a two-year time period.A decision analytic model is built combining available evidence from different resources among which (accuracy) results from the study, literature and expert opinion to assess long-term cost-effectiveness of the emerging biomarkers. DISCUSSION: Several other multi-centre trials study the relative value of new biomarkers for early evaluation of AD and related disorders. The uniqueness of this study is the assessment of resource utilization and quality of life to enable an economic evaluation. The study results are generalizable to a population of patients who are referred to a memory clinic due to their memory problems. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01450891.

Quality of Life, Care Resource Use, and Costs of Dementia in 8 European Countries in a Cross-Sectional Cohort of the Actifcare Study.

BACKGROUND: With 10.5 million people with dementia in Europe and $301 billion associated costs, governments face challenges organizing access to care. OBJECTIVE: To examine the costs related to formal and informal care use and quality of life for people with dementia in eight European countries, and explore the association with unmet needs. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 451 persons with dementia and their informal caregivers of the Actifcare cohort study were obtained. Formal and informal care use was multiplied by country specific unit prices of services. Needs were measured using the CANE and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of the person with dementia (both self- and proxy-rated) and informal caregiver's quality of life using EQ-5D-5L, ICECAP-O, DEMQOL-U, and CarerQol utility scores. The association between costs and country, European region, and unmet needs was assessed using multi-level linear regression. RESULTS: Self-rated EQ-5D-5L utility score was higher than proxy-rated (0.84 and 0.71, respectively). Informal caregivers' utility score was 0.84. Across eight countries annual mean costs of formal and informal care were approximately € 17,000. Unmet needs were not associated with annual costs of care, nor with proxy-rated HRQOL, but were associated with self-rated HRQOL. CONCLUSION: We found varying relationships between unmet needs and quality of life, and no association between unmet needs and care costs, although the results were sensitive to various factors. Future research should further investigate the relation between unmet needs, quality of life and costs to generate a better understanding of the effects of (un)timely access to care.

Cost-Utility of Using Alzheimer's Disease Biomarkers in Cerebrospinal Fluid to Predict Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Dementia.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic research criteria for Alzheimer's disease support the use of biomarkers in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) to improve the accuracy of the prognosis regarding progression to dementia for people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the potential incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of adding CSF biomarker testing to the standard diagnostic workup to determine the prognosis for patients with MCI. METHODS: In an early technology assessment, a mathematical simulation model was built, using available evidence on added prognostic value as well as expert opinion to estimate the incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 20,000 virtual MCI patients with (intervention strategy) and without (control strategy) relying on CSF, from a health-care sector perspective and with a 5-year time horizon. RESULTS: Adding the CSF test improved the accuracy of prognosis by 11%. This resulted in an average QALY gain of 0.046 and € 432 additional costs per patient, representing an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of € 9,416. CONCLUSION: The results show the potential of CSF biomarkers in current practice from a health-economics perspective. This result was, however, marked by a high degree of uncertainty, and empirical research is required into the impact of a prognosis on worrying, false-positive/negative prognosis, and stigmatization.

The Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Neuropsychological Assessment in Memory Clinic Patients.

BACKGROUND: Neuropsychological testing has long been embedded in daily clinical practice at memory clinics but the added value of a complete neuropsychological assessment (NPA) to standard clinical evaluation is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the added diagnostic and prognostic value of NPA to clinical evaluation only in memory clinic patients. METHODS: In 221 memory clinic patients of a prospective cohort study, clinical experts diagnosed clinical syndrome (subjective cognitive impairment (SCI), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or dementia) and etiology (Alzheimer's disease (AD) or no AD), and provided a prognosis of disease course (decline or no decline) before and after results of NPA were made available. The reference standard was a panel consensus based on all clinical information at baseline and up to 2 follow-up assessments. RESULTS: With NPA data available, clinicians changed their initial syndromal diagnosis in 22% of patients, and the etiological diagnosis as well as the prognosis in 15%. This led to an increase in correctly classified cases of 18% for syndromal diagnosis, 5% for etiological diagnosis, and 1% for prognosis. NPA data resulted in the largest improvement in patients initially classified as SCI (syndrome: 93.3% (n = 14) correctly reclassified, etiology: net reclassification improvement [NRI] = 0.61, prognosis: NRI = 0.13) or MCI (syndrome: 89.3% (n = 23) correctly reclassified, etiology: NRI = 0.17, prognosis: NRI = 0.14), while there was no improvement in patients with dementia (syndrome: 100% (n = 1) correctly reclassified, etiology: NRI = -0.05, prognosis: NRI = -0.06). Overall, inclusion of NPA in the diagnostic process increased confidence in all diagnoses with 6-7%. CONCLUSION: Administration of a complete NPA after standard clinical evaluation has added value for diagnosing cognitive syndrome and its underlying etiology in patients regarded as non-demented based on the first clinical impression.

Combinations of Service Use Types of People With Early Cognitive Disorders.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding which persons most likely use particular combinations of service types is important as this could lead to a better understanding of care pathways. The aim of this study is to identify combinations of service use within a sample of community-dwelling people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia and identify factors related to these service use combinations. METHODS: A latent class analysis performed at baseline on a merged dataset (n = 530) was used to classify care recipients based on following service use types: general practitioner visits, physiotherapist visits, hospital outpatient specialist visits, emergency room visits, hospital inpatient visits with stay over, day care visits, use of domestic homecare, use of personal homecare, and informal care on (instrumental) activities of daily living. Multinomial logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with service use combinations using clinical characteristics of the care recipient and demographic characteristics of the care recipient and caregiver. RESULTS: Three service use classes were identified; a formal homecare class (10% of participants), an informal care class (46% of participants), and a low user class (44% of participants). Factors increasing the likelihood of being in the formal homecare class compared with the low service use class included a diagnosis of MCI or dementia, activities of daily living impairment, older age of the care recipient, and care recipient not living together with the caregiver. CONCLUSIONS: Besides a diagnosis of MCI or dementia, other factors (activities of daily living impairment, age, and living situation) were associated with service use. We recommend using these factors alongside the diagnostic label for care indication.

Added Prognostic Value of Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers in Predicting Decline in Memory Clinic Patients in a Prospective Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Limited information is available on short-term prognosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in addition to routine diagnostic workup. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the added prognostic value of AD CSF biomarkers. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, clinical experts predicted cognitive and functional symptoms in 114 memory clinic patients by assessing comprehensive routine diagnostic test information (patient history, and physical, neurological, psychiatric, neuropsychological, and MRI examinations), without and with CSF biomarkers. The reference standard was the 'observed clinically relevant decline' using baseline and 1- and 2-year follow-up information. RESULTS: Decline over a 2-year period was observed in 51% of all participants (3% in SMC, 48% in MCI, 90% in mild dementia). In the total sample, the accuracy of predicted decline did not differ significantly between routine assessment without (79% correctly predicted) and with (74% correctly predicted) CSF biomarkers. Subgroup analyses revealed 25 (83%) correct predictions in SMC, 30 (68%) in MCI, and 35 (88%) in dementia without the use of CSF; and 21 (70%), 27 (61%), and 36 (90%), respectively, with the use of CSF in addition to the routine assessment. CONCLUSION: AD CSF biomarkers did not increase accuracy of 2-year prognosis of cognitive and functional decline when added to routine diagnostic workup. This suggests that the standard diagnostic workup without CSF biomarkers allows fairly accurate predictions for the short-term course of symptoms. Routine AD biomarkers in CSF have limited prognostic value over 2 years in persons with a suspected cognitive disorder.

Natural progression model of cognition and physical functioning among people with mild cognitive impairment and alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: Empirical models of the natural history of Alzheimer's disease (AD) may help to evaluate new interventions for AD. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate AD-free survival time in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and decline of cognitive and physical function in AD cases. METHODS: Within the Kungsholmen project, 153 incident MCI and 323 incident AD cases (international criteria) were identified during 9 years of follow-up in a cognitively healthy cohort of elderly people aged ≥75 at baseline (n = 1,082). Global cognitive function was assessed with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and daily life function was evaluated with the Katz index of activities of daily living (ADL) at each follow-up examination. Data were analyzed using parametric survival analysis and mixed effect models. RESULTS: Median AD-free survival time of 153 participants with incident MCI was 3.5 years. Among 323 incident AD cases, the cognitive decline was 1.84 MMSE points per year, which was significantly associated with age. Physical functioning declined by 0.38 ADL points per year and was significantly associated with age, education, and MMSE, but not with gender. CONCLUSION: Elderly people with MCI may develop AD in approximately 3.5 years. Both cognitive and physical function may decline gradually after AD onset. The empirical models can be used to evaluate long-term disease progression of new interventions for AD.