Decadal slowdown of a land-terminating sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet despite warming.

Ice flow along land-terminating margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) varies considerably in response to fluctuating inputs of surface meltwater to the bed of the ice sheet. Such inputs lubricate the ice-bed interface, transiently speeding up the flow of ice. Greater melting results in faster ice motion during summer, but slower motion over the subsequent winter, owing to the evolution of an efficient drainage system that enables water to drain from regions of the ice-sheet bed that have a high basal water pressure. However, the impact of hydrodynamic coupling on ice motion over decadal timescales remains poorly constrained. Here we show that annual ice motion across an 8,000-km(2) land-terminating region of the west GIS margin, extending to 1,100 m above sea level, was 12% slower in 2007-14 compared with 1985-94, despite a 50% increase in surface meltwater production. Our findings suggest that, over these three decades, hydrodynamic coupling in this section of the ablation zone resulted in a net slowdown of ice motion (not a speed-up, as previously postulated). Increases in meltwater production from projected climate warming may therefore further reduce the motion of land-terminating margins of the GIS. Our findings suggest that these sectors of the ice sheet are more resilient to the dynamic impacts of enhanced meltwater production than previously thought.

Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.

Melt-induced speed-up of Greenland ice sheet offset by efficient subglacial drainage.

Fluctuations in surface melting are known to affect the speed of glaciers and ice sheets, but their impact on the Greenland ice sheet in a warming climate remains uncertain. Although some studies suggest that greater melting produces greater ice-sheet acceleration, others have identified a long-term decrease in Greenland's flow despite increased melting. Here we use satellite observations of ice motion recorded in a land-terminating sector of southwest Greenland to investigate the manner in which ice flow develops during years of markedly different melting. Although peak rates of ice speed-up are positively correlated with the degree of melting, mean summer flow rates are not, because glacier slowdown occurs, on average, when a critical run-off threshold of about 1.4 centimetres a day is exceeded. In contrast to the first half of summer, when flow is similar in all years, speed-up during the latter half is 62 ± 16 per cent less in warmer years. Consequently, in warmer years, the period of fast ice flow is three times shorter and, overall, summer ice flow is slower. This behaviour is at odds with that expected from basal lubrication alone. Instead, it mirrors that of mountain glaciers, where melt-induced acceleration of flow ceases during years of high melting once subglacial drainage becomes efficient. A model of ice-sheet flow that captures switching between cavity and channel drainage modes is consistent with the run-off threshold, fast-flow periods, and later-summer speeds we have observed. Simulations of the Greenland ice-sheet flow under climate warming scenarios should account for the dynamic evolution of subglacial drainage; a simple model of basal lubrication alone misses key aspects of the ice sheet's response to climate warming.

Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires.

In recent decades boreal wildfires have occurred frequently over eastern Siberia, leading to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and pollutants. However, it is unclear what factors have contributed to recent increases in these wildfires. Here, using the data we show that background eastern Siberian Arctic warming (BAW) related to summer Russian Arctic sea-ice decline accounts for ~79% of the increase in summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) that controls wildfires over eastern Siberia over 2004-2021 with the remaining ~21% related to internal atmospheric variability associated with changes in Siberian blocking events. We further demonstrate that Siberian blocking events are occurring at higher latitudes, are more persistent and have larger zonal scales and slower decay due to smaller meridional potential vorticity gradients caused by stronger BAW under lower sea-ice. These changes lead to more persistent, widespread and intense high-latitude warming and VPD, thus contributing to recent increases in eastern Siberian high-latitude wildfires.

Linking fine-scale sub-arctic vegetation distribution in complex topography with surface-air-temperature modelled at 50-m resolution.

Recent studies have shown that the complexities of the surface features in mountainous terrain require a re-assessment of climate impacts at the local level. We explored the importance of surface-air-temperature based on a recently published 50-m-gridded dataset, versus soil variables for explaining vegetation distribution in Swedish Lapland using generalised linear models (GLMs). The results demonstrated that the current distribution of the birch forest and snowbed community strongly relied on the surface-air-temperature. However, temperature alone is a poor predictor of many plant communities (wetland, meadow). Because of diminishing sample representation with increasing altitude, the snowbed community was under-sampled at higher altitudes. This results in underestimation of the current distribution of the snowbed community around the mountain summits. The analysis suggests that caution is warranted when applying GLMs at the local level.

Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections.

While climate models project that Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt will continue to accelerate with climate change, models exhibit limitations in capturing observed connections between GrIS melt and changes in high-latitude atmospheric circulation. Here we impose observed Arctic winds in a fully-coupled climate model with fixed anthropogenic forcing to quantify the influence of the rotational component of large-scale atmospheric circulation variability over the Arctic on the temperature field and the surface mass/energy balances through adiabatic processes. We show that recent changes involving mid-to-upper-tropospheric anticyclonic wind anomalies - linked with tropical forcing - explain half of the observed Greenland surface warming and ice loss acceleration since 1990, suggesting a pathway for large-scale winds to potentially enhance sea-level rise by ~0.2 mm/year per decade. We further reveal fingerprints of this observed teleconnection in paleo-reanalyses spanning the past 400 years, which heightens concern about model limitations to capture wind-driven adiabatic processes associated with GrIS melt.

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study.

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.

Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming.

We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979-2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998-2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and back-trajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes. Relationships during opposite conditions of warm Europe/cold Arctic are also significant. Correlations have become consistently stronger since 1998. Large-scale pattern analysis reveals that cold spells are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-) and the positive phase of the Scandinavian (SCA+) pattern, which in turn are correlated with the divergence of dry-static energy transport. Warm European extremes are associated with opposite phases of these patterns and the convergence of latent heat transport. Airmass trajectory analysis is consistent with these findings, as airmasses associated with extreme cold events typically originate over continents, while warm events tend to occur with prevailing maritime airmasses. Despite Arctic-wide warming, significant cooling has occurred in northeastern Europe owing to a decrease in adiabatic subsidence heating in airmasses arriving from the southeast, along with increased occurrence of circulation patterns favouring low temperature advection. These dynamic effects dominated over the increased mean temperature of most circulation patterns. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SCA- and NAO+ are typically preceded by cold Arctic anomalies during the previous 2-3 months, which may aid seasonal forecasting.

The solar eclipse: a natural meteorological experiment.

A solar eclipse provides a well-characterized reduction in solar radiation, of calculable amount and duration. This captivating natural astronomical phenomenon is ideally suited to science outreach activities, but the predictability of the change in solar radiation also provides unusual conditions for assessing the atmospheric response to a known stimulus. Modern automatic observing networks used for weather forecasting and atmospheric research have dense spatial coverage, so the quantitative meteorological responses to an eclipse can now be evaluated with excellent space and time resolution. Numerical models representing the atmosphere at high spatial resolution can also be used to predict eclipse-related changes and interpret the observations. Combining the models with measurements yields the elements of a controlled atmospheric experiment on a regional scale (10-1000 km), which is almost impossible to achieve by other means. This modern approach to 'eclipse meteorology' as identified here can ultimately improve weather prediction models and be used to plan for transient reductions in renewable electricity generation. During the 20 March 2015 eclipse, UK electrical energy demand increased by about 3 GWh (11 TJ) or about 4%, alongside reductions in the wind and photovoltaic electrical energy generation of 1.5 GWh (5.5 TJ).This article is part of the themed issue 'Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse'.

Meteorological effects of the solar eclipse of 20 March 2015: analysis of UK Met Office automatic weather station data and comparison with automatic weather station data from the Faroes and Iceland.

Here, we analyse high-frequency (1 min) surface air temperature, mean sea-level pressure (MSLP), wind speed and direction and cloud-cover data acquired during the solar eclipse of 20 March 2015 from 76 UK Met Office weather stations, and compare the results with those from 30 weather stations in the Faroe Islands and 148 stations in Iceland. There was a statistically significant mean UK temperature drop of 0.83±0.63°C, which occurred over 39 min on average, and the minimum temperature lagged the peak of the eclipse by about 10 min. For a subset of 14 (16) relatively clear (cloudy) stations, the mean temperature drop was 0.91±0.78 (0.31±0.40)°C but the mean temperature drops for relatively calm and windy stations were almost identical. Mean wind speed dropped significantly by 9% on average during the first half of the eclipse. There was no discernible effect of the eclipse on the wind-direction or MSLP time series, and therefore we can discount any localized eclipse cyclone effect over Britain during this event. Similar changes in air temperature and wind speed are observed for Iceland, where conditions were generally clearer, but here too there was no evidence of an eclipse cyclone; in the Faroes, there was a much more muted meteorological signature.This article is part of the themed issue 'Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse'.

A daily Azores-Iceland North Atlantic Oscillation index back to 1850.

We present the construction of a continuous, daily (09:00 UTC), station-based (Azores-Iceland) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index back to 1871 which is extended back to 1850 with additional daily mean data. The constructed index more than doubles the length of previously existing, widely available, daily NAO time series. The index is created using entirely observational sea-level pressure (SLP) data from Iceland and 73.5% of observational SLP data from the Azores - the remainder being filled in via reanalysis (Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project and European Mean Sea Level Pressure) SLP data. Icelandic data are taken from the Southwest Iceland pressure series. We construct and document a new Ponta Delgada SLP time series based on recently digitized and newly available data that extend back to 1872. The Ponta Delgada time series is created by splicing together several fractured records (from Ponta Delgada, Lajes, and Santa Maria) and filling in the major gaps (pre-1872, 1888-1905, and 1940-1941) and occasional days (145) with reanalysis data. Further homogeneity corrections are applied to the Azores record, and the daily (09:00 UTC) NAO index is then calculated. The resulting index, with its extended temporal length and daily resolution, is the first reconstruction of daily NAO back into the 19th Century and therefore is useful for researchers across multiple disciplines.

Ecosystem change and stability over multiple decades in the Swedish subarctic: complex processes and multiple drivers.

The subarctic environment of northernmost Sweden has changed over the past century, particularly elements of climate and cryosphere. This paper presents a unique geo-referenced record of environmental and ecosystem observations from the area since 1913. Abiotic changes have been substantial. Vegetation changes include not only increases in growth and range extension but also counterintuitive decreases, and stability: all three possible responses. Changes in species composition within the major plant communities have ranged between almost no changes to almost a 50 per cent increase in the number of species. Changes in plant species abundance also vary with particularly large increases in trees and shrubs (up to 600%). There has been an increase in abundance of aspen and large changes in other plant communities responding to wetland area increases resulting from permafrost thaw. Populations of herbivores have responded to varying management practices and climate regimes, particularly changing snow conditions. While it is difficult to generalize and scale-up the site-specific changes in ecosystems, this very site-specificity, combined with projections of change, is of immediate relevance to local stakeholders who need to adapt to new opportunities and to respond to challenges. Furthermore, the relatively small area and its unique datasets are a microcosm of the complexity of Arctic landscapes in transition that remains to be documented.

Snowfall-driven growth in East Antarctic ice sheet mitigates recent sea-level rise.

Satellite radar altimetry measurements indicate that the East Antarctic ice-sheet interior north of 81.6 degrees S increased in mass by 45 +/- 7 billion metric tons per year from 1992 to 2003. Comparisons with contemporaneous meteorological model snowfall estimates suggest that the gain in mass was associated with increased precipitation. A gain of this magnitude is enough to slow sea-level rise by 0.12 +/- 0.02 millimeters per year.