Risk factors for curable sexually transmitted infections among youth: findings from the STICH population survey in Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVES: Youth are at high risk of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in Africa. We aimed to determine the risk factors for curable STIs in youth in Zimbabwe. METHODS: A population-based survey was conducted among randomly selected 18-24 year-olds in 16 communities across two provinces in Zimbabwe to ascertain outcomes for a cluster randomised trial investigating the impact of community-based STI screening for youth on population prevalence of STIs. Participants underwent an interviewer-administered questionnaire, HIV testing and screening for Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) and Trichomonas vaginalis (TV). Risk factors for curable STIs were explored through multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 5601 participants, 62.5% (n=3500) were female, and the median age was 20 (IQR 19-22) years. HIV prevalence was 6.3% (351/5556), and 55.4% (1939/3501) reported condomless sex at last intercourse. Only 7.2% (401/5599) reported STI symptoms, but CT/NG/TV prevalence was 19.8% (1107/5601). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with STI diagnosis included being aged 21-24 years (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.37, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.61); female sex (aOR 2.11, 95% CI 1.76 to 2.53); being unemployed/informally employed (compared with in education/formal employment) (aOR 1.35, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.61); increasing number of sexual partners in the preceding 12 months (one partner: aOR 2.23, 95% CI 1.73 to 2.88; two partners: aOR 2.39, 95% CI 1.69 to 3.39); living with HIV (aOR 1.44, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.94); and previous attempted suicide (aOR 1.58, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.32). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of STIs among youth in Zimbabwe is high, particularly among those with HIV. In addition to moving away from syndromic STI management and strengthening implementation of existing prevention tools, there is a need for a more holistic focus on broader risk factors such as mental health and employment opportunities, and of integration of HIV and STI programming. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15013425, NCT03719521.

Epidemiology of alcohol use and alcohol use disorders among people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Northwest Tanzania: implications for ART adherence and case management.

Alcohol use disorders (AUD) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) are associated with poor health outcomes. This cross-sectional study examined current alcohol use and AUD among 300 PLHIV on ART at four HIV care centres in Northwest Tanzania. Participants' data were collected using questionnaires. Alcohol use was assessed using Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Logistic regression was used to examine associations between each outcome (current drinking and AUD) and sociodemographic and clinical factors. Association between alcohol use and ART adherence was also studied. The median age of participants was 43 years (IQR 19-71) and 41.3% were male. Twenty-two (7.3%) participants failed to take ART at least once in the last seven days. The prevalence of current drinking was 29.3% (95% CI 24.2-34.8%) and that of AUD was 11.3% (8.2%-15.5%). Males had higher odds of alcohol use (OR 3.03, 95% CI 1.79-5.14) and AUD (3.89, 1.76-8.60). Alcohol use was associated with ART non-adherence (OR = 2.78, 1.10-7.04). There was a trend towards an association between AUD and non-adherence (OR = 2.91, 0.92-9.21). Alcohol use and AUD were common among PLHIV and showed evidence of associations with ART non-adherence. Screening patients for alcohol use and AUD in HIV clinics may increase ART adherence.

Associations between age of menarche, early sexual debut and high-risk sexual behaviour among urban Tanzanian schoolgirls: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: This cross-sectional survey aimed to explore associations between age of menarche, early sexual debut and high-risk sexual behaviour among urban Tanzanian schoolgirls. METHODS: Secondary schoolgirls aged 17-18 years from Mwanza, Tanzania, participated in structured face-to-face questionnaire-based interviews, conducted by nurses and clinicians. Age of menarche was evaluated in categories of 11-12, 13-14, 15-16 or ≥17 years. Primary outcome measures were self-reported early sexual debut (first vaginal sex at <16 years) and high-risk sexual behaviour, including non-use of condoms, having sex for gifts/money, having older sexual partners and/or other risky behaviours. RESULTS: Of 401 girls enrolled, 174 (43.4%) reported prior vaginal sex. Prevalence of early sexual debut was 14.2% but pressured/forced sex and risky sexual behaviours were common. Adjusted for potential confounding, younger age at menarche was associated with early sexual debut (adjusted odds ratio for linear trend: 1.88 per category, 95% confidence interval: 1.21-2.92, p = 0.005). This association remained after excluding girls with first sex at <8 years or experiencing pressure or force at first sex. Further, adjusted for potential confounding (including ever experiencing forced sex), early sexual debut was associated with high-risk sexual behaviour (adjusted odds ratio: 2.85, 95% confidence interval: 1.38-5.88, p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Among urban Tanzanian school girls, younger age of menarche was associated with early sexual debut, and early sexual debut was associated with high-risk sexual behaviour. Researchers and public health professionals developing and delivering interventions aimed at preventing adverse sexual health outcomes should consider the impact of these early biological and sexual exposures.

Cluster randomized controlled trial analysis at the cluster level: The clan command.

In this article, we introduce a new command, clan, that conducts a cluster-level analysis of cluster randomized trials. The command simplifies adjusting for individual- and cluster-level covariates and can also account for a stratified design. It can be used to analyze a continuous, binary, or rate outcome.

Effect of Universal Testing and Treatment on HIV Incidence - HPTN 071 (PopART).

BACKGROUND: A universal testing and treatment strategy is a potential approach to reduce the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, yet previous trial results are inconsistent. METHODS: In the HPTN 071 (PopART) community-randomized trial conducted from 2013 through 2018, we randomly assigned 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa (total population, approximately 1 million) to group A (combination prevention intervention with universal antiretroviral therapy [ART]), group B (the prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines [universal since 2016]), or group C (standard care). The prevention intervention included home-based HIV testing delivered by community workers, who also supported linkage to HIV care and ART adherence. The primary outcome, HIV incidence between months 12 and 36, was measured in a population cohort of approximately 2000 randomly sampled adults (18 to 44 years of age) per community. Viral suppression (<400 copies of HIV RNA per milliliter) was assessed in all HIV-positive participants at 24 months. RESULTS: The population cohort included 48,301 participants. Baseline HIV prevalence was 21% or 22% in each group. Between months 12 and 36, a total of 553 new HIV infections were observed during 39,702 person-years (1.4 per 100 person-years; women, 1.7; men, 0.8). The adjusted rate ratio for group A as compared with group C was 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 1.18; P = 0.51) and for group B as compared with group C was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.88; P = 0.006). The percentage of HIV-positive participants with viral suppression at 24 months was 71.9% in group A, 67.5% in group B, and 60.2% in group C. The estimated percentage of HIV-positive adults in the community who were receiving ART at 36 months was 81% in group A and 80% in group B. CONCLUSIONS: A combination prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines resulted in a 30% lower incidence of HIV infection than standard care. The lack of effect with universal ART was unanticipated and not consistent with the data on viral suppression. In this trial setting, universal testing and treatment reduced the population-level incidence of HIV infection. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; HPTN 071 [PopArt] ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01900977.).

PopART-IBM, a highly efficient stochastic individual-based simulation model of generalised HIV epidemics developed in the context of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial.

Mathematical models are powerful tools in HIV epidemiology, producing quantitative projections of key indicators such as HIV incidence and prevalence. In order to improve the accuracy of predictions, such models need to incorporate a number of behavioural and biological heterogeneities, especially those related to the sexual network within which HIV transmission occurs. An individual-based model, which explicitly models sexual partnerships, is thus often the most natural type of model to choose. In this paper we present PopART-IBM, a computationally efficient individual-based model capable of simulating 50 years of an HIV epidemic in a large, high-prevalence community in under a minute. We show how the model calibrates within a Bayesian inference framework to detailed age- and sex-stratified data from multiple sources on HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV status, ART status, and viral suppression for an HPTN 071 (PopART) study community in Zambia, and present future projections of HIV prevalence and incidence for this community in the absence of trial intervention.

Cluster randomised trials with a binary outcome and a small number of clusters: comparison of individual and cluster level analysis method.

BACKGROUND: Cluster randomised trials (CRTs) are often designed with a small number of clusters, but it is not clear which analysis methods are optimal when the outcome is binary. This simulation study aimed to determine (i) whether cluster-level analysis (CL), generalised linear mixed models (GLMM), and generalised estimating equations with sandwich variance (GEE) approaches maintain acceptable type-one error including the impact of non-normality of cluster effects and low prevalence, and if so (ii) which methods have the greatest power. We simulated CRTs with 8-30 clusters, altering the cluster-size, outcome prevalence, intracluster correlation coefficient, and cluster effect distribution. We analysed each dataset with weighted and unweighted CL; GLMM with adaptive quadrature and restricted pseudolikelihood; GEE with Kauermann-and-Carroll and Fay-and-Graubard sandwich variance using independent and exchangeable working correlation matrices. P-values were from a t-distribution with degrees of freedom (DoF) as clusters minus cluster-level parameters; GLMM pseudolikelihood also used Satterthwaite and Kenward-Roger DoF. RESULTS: Unweighted CL, GLMM pseudolikelihood, and Fay-and-Graubard GEE with independent or exchangeable working correlation matrix controlled type-one error in > 97% scenarios with clusters minus parameters DoF. Cluster-effect distribution and prevalence of outcome did not usually affect analysis method performance. GEE had the least power. With 20-30 clusters, GLMM had greater power than CL with varying cluster-size but similar power otherwise; with fewer clusters, GLMM had lower power with common cluster-size, similar power with medium variation, and greater power with large variation in cluster-size. CONCLUSION: We recommend that CRTs with ≤ 30 clusters and a binary outcome use an unweighted CL or restricted pseudolikelihood GLMM both with DoF clusters minus cluster-level parameters.

Identifying youth at high risk for sexually transmitted infections in community-based settings using a risk prediction tool: a validation study.

BACKGROUND : Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) are the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs) worldwide. In the absence of affordable point-of-care STI tests, WHO recommends STI testing based on risk factors. This study aimed to develop a prediction tool with a sensitivity of > 90% and efficiency (defined as the percentage of individuals that are eligible for diagnostic testing) of < 60%. METHODS: This study offered CT/NG testing as part of a cluster-randomised trial of community-based delivery of sexual and reproductive health services to youth aged 16-24 years in Zimbabwe. All individuals accepting STI testing completed an STI risk factor questionnaire. The outcome was positivity for either CT or NG. Backwards-stepwise logistic regression was performed with p ≥ 0.05 as criteria for exclusion. Coefficients of variables included in the final multivariable model were multiplied by 10 to generate weights for a STI risk prediction tool. A maximum likelihood Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) model was fitted, with the continuous variable score divided into 15 categories of equal size. Sensitivity, efficiency and number needed to screen were calculated for different cut-points. RESULTS: From 3 December 2019 to 5 February 2020, 1007 individuals opted for STI testing, of whom 1003 (99.6%) completed the questionnaire. CT/NG prevalence was 17.5% (95% CI 15.1, 19.8) (n = 175). CT/NG positivity was independently associated with being female, number of lifetime sexual partners, relationship status, HIV status, self-assessed STI risk and past or current pregnancy. The STI risk prediction score including those variables ranged from 2 to 46 with an area under the ROC curve of 0.72 (95% CI 0.68, 0.76). Two cut-points were chosen: (i) 23 for optimised sensitivity (75.9%) and specificity (59.3%) and (ii) 19 to maximise sensitivity (82.4%) while keeping efficiency at < 60% (59.4%). CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of STIs among youth, even in those with no or one reported risk factor, may preclude the use of risk prediction tools for selective STI testing. At a cut-point of 19 one in six young people with STIs would be missed.

HPV prevalence around the time of sexual debut in adolescent girls in Tanzania.

OBJECTIVES: Cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality among women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Data on human papillomavirus (HPV) epidemiology in adolescent girls in SSA are essential to inform HPV vaccine policy recommendations for cervical cancer prevention. We assessed the burden of HPV infection, and risk factors for infection, among adolescent girls around the time of sexual debut. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of secondary school girls aged 17-18 years in Tanzania. Consenting participants provided samples for HPV and STI testing. Vaginal swabs were tested for 37 HPV genotypes by Roche Linear Array. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with HPV infection. Y chromosome was tested as a marker of recent condomless sex. RESULTS: 163/385 girls (42.3%) reported previous penetrative sex. HPV was detected in 125/385 (32.5%) girls, including 84/163 (51.5%) girls reporting previous sex and 41/222 (18.5%) reporting no previous sex. High-risk (HR) genotypes were detected in 70/125 (56.0%) girls with HPV infection. The most common HR genotype was HPV-16 (15/385; 3.9%). The prevalence of other HR HPV vaccine genotypes was between 0.8% and 3.1%. Among 186 girls who reported no previous sex, were negative for Y chromosome, and had no STI, 32 (17%) had detectable HPV. Lactobacillus sp and bacterial vaginosis-associated bacteria were negatively and positively associated, respectively, with HPV. CONCLUSIONS: HPV prevalence among adolescent girls around the time of sexual debut was high. However, prevalence of most vaccine genotypes was low, indicating that extending the age range of HPV vaccination in this region may be cost-effective.

Human papillomavirus DNA detected in fingertip, oral and bathroom samples from unvaccinated adolescent girls in Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: Human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA has been detected in vaginal samples from adolescent girls who report no previous sex and, in high-income settings, from fingertips, raising the possibility of non-sexual transmission. No such studies originate from East Africa which bears among the highest cervical cancer incidence and HPV prevalence worldwide. HPV-related oral cancer incidence is increasing, but oral HPV prevalence data from East Africa are limited. We aimed to describe the HPV DNA prevalence in genital and non-genital sites and in the bathroom of unvaccinated adolescent girls, and examine genotype concordance between sites. METHODS: We nested a cross-sectional study of HPV in genital and extragenital sites within a cohort study of vaginal HPV acquisition. Unvaccinated girls age 16-18 years in Tanzania, who reported ever having had sex, were consented, enrolled and tested for the presence of HPV DNA in vaginal samples collected using self-administered swabs, oral samples collected using an oral rinse, and on fingertips and bathroom surfaces collected using a cytobrush. RESULTS: Overall, 65 girls were enrolled and 23 (35%, 95% CI 23% to 47%) had detectable vaginal HPV. Adequate (ß-globin positive) samples were collected from 36 girls' fingertips and HPV was detected in 7 (19%, 95% CI 6% to 33%). 63 girls provided adequate oral samples, 4 (6%, 95% CI 0% to 13%) of which had HPV DNA detected. In bathroom samples from 58 girls, 4 (7%, 95% CI 0% to 14%) had detectable HPV DNA. Of the 11 girls with extragenital HPV, six had the same genotype in >1 site. CONCLUSION: We found a high prevalence of HPV in non-genital sites in adolescent girls and in their bathrooms, in this region with a high cervical cancer incidence. Concordance of genotypes between sites supports the possibility of autoinoculation.

Results from a cross-sectional sexual and reproductive health study among school girls in Tanzania: high prevalence of bacterial vaginosis.

OBJECTIVES: Bacterial vaginosis (BV) increases women's susceptibility to sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV and may partly explain the high incidence of STI/HIV among girls and young women in East and southern Africa. The objectives of this study were to investigate the association between BV and sexual debut, to investigate other potential risk factors of BV and to estimate associations between BV and STIs. METHODS: Secondary school girls in Mwanza, aged 17 and 18 years, were invited to join a cross-sectional study. Consenting participants were interviewed and samples were obtained for STI and BV testing. Factors associated with prevalent BV were analysed using multivariable logistic regression. Y-chromosome was tested as a biomarker for unprotected penile-vaginal sex. RESULTS: Of the 386 girls who were enrolled, 163 (42%) reported having ever had penile-vaginal sex. Ninety-five (25%) girls had BV. The prevalence of BV was 33% and 19% among girls who reported or did not report having ever had penile-vaginal sex, respectively. BV was weakly associated with having ever had one sex partner (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.59;95% CI 0.93 to 2.71) and strongly associated with two or more partners (aOR = 3.67; 95% CI 1.75 to 7.72), receptive oral sex (aOR 6.38; 95% CI 1.22 to 33.4) and having prevalent human papillomavirus infection (aOR = 1.73; 95% CI 1.02 to 2.95). Of the 223 girls who reported no penile-vaginal sex, 12 (5%) tested positive for an STI and 7 (3%) tested positive for Y-chromosome. Reclassifying these positive participants as having ever had sex did not change the key results. CONCLUSIONS: Tanzanian girls attending school had a high prevalence of BV. Increasing number of sex partner was associated with BV; however, 19% of girls who reported no penile-vaginal sex had BV. This suggests that penile-vaginal sexual exposure may not be a prerequisite for BV. There was evidence of under-reporting of sexual debut.

Sexually Transmitted Bedfellows: Exquisite Association Between HIV and Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 in 21 Communities in Southern Africa in the HIV Prevention Trials Network 071 (PopART) Study.

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV2) are strongly associated, although mechanisms are not fully understood. An HIV prevention trial allowed reexamination of this association at individual and community levels. Methods: The HIV Prevention Trials Network 071 (PopART) study evaluates a combination prevention intervention in 21 urban communities in Zambia and South Africa. To measure impact on HIV infection incidence, a cohort of approximately 2000 adults (age range, 18-44 years) was selected randomly from each community. Baseline data on sociodemographic characteristics, behavior, and HIV/HSV2 serologic findings were used to examine the association between HIV and HSV2. At the community level, HIV prevalence was plotted against HSV2 prevalence. Results: A total of 38691 adults participated. HSV2 prevalence among women and men was 50% and 22%, respectively, in Zambia and 60% and 27%, respectively, in South Africa. Estimated HSV2 infection incidence among those aged 18-24 years was 8.06 cases/100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.76-9.35) and 1.76 cases/100 person-years (95% CI, 1.30-2.22) among women and men, respectively. A 6-fold higher odds of HIV infection was seen in HSV2-infected individuals in both sexes, after adjustment for confounders (odds ratio, 6.66 [95% CI, 6.07-7.31] among women and 6.57 [95% CI, 5.56-7.77] among men). At the community-level, there was a strong linear relationship between HIV and HSV2 prevalence (ρ = 0.92; P < .001). Conclusions: There was an exquisite association between these 2 infections, at the individual and community levels, likely due in part to a powerful cofactor effect of HSV2 on HIV transmission. HSV2 control could contribute to HIV prevention.

Prevalence of sexually transmitted infections and bacterial vaginosis among women in sub-Saharan Africa: An individual participant data meta-analysis of 18 HIV prevention studies.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence are essential for efforts to prevent and control STIs. Few large STI prevalence studies exist, especially for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Our primary objective was to estimate the prevalence of chlamydia, gonorrhea, trichomoniasis, syphilis, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), and bacterial vaginosis (BV) among women in sub-Saharan Africa by age, region, and population type. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed individual-level data from 18 HIV prevention studies (cohort studies and randomized controlled trials; conducted during 1993-2011), representing >37,000 women, that tested participants for ≥1 selected STIs or BV at baseline. We used a 2-stage meta-analysis to combine data. After calculating the proportion of participants with each infection and standard error by study, we used a random-effects model to obtain a summary mean prevalence of each infection and 95% confidence interval (CI) across ages, regions, and population types. Despite substantial study heterogeneity for some STIs/populations, several patterns emerged. Across the three primary region/population groups (South Africa community-based, Southern/Eastern Africa community-based, and Eastern Africa higher-risk), prevalence was higher among 15-24-year-old than 25-49-year-old women for all STIs except HSV-2. In general, higher-risk populations had greater prevalence of gonorrhea and syphilis than clinic/community-based populations. For chlamydia, prevalence among 15-24-year-olds was 10.3% (95% CI: 7.4%, 14.1%; I2 = 75.7%) among women specifically recruited from higher-risk settings for HIV in Eastern Africa and was 15.1% (95% CI: 12.7%, 17.8%; I2 = 82.3%) in South African clinic/community-based populations. Among clinic/community-based populations, prevalence was generally greater in South Africa than in Southern/Eastern Africa for most STIs; for gonorrhea, prevalence among 15-24-year-olds was 4.6% (95% CI: 3.3%, 6.4%; I2 = 82.8%) in South Africa and was 1.7% (95% CI: 1.2%, 2.6%; I2 = 55.2%) in Southern/Eastern Africa. Across the three primary region/population groups, HSV-2 and BV prevalence was high among 25-49-year-olds (ranging from 70% to 83% and 33% to 44%, respectively). The main study limitation is that the data are not from random samples of the target populations. CONCLUSIONS: Combining data from 18 HIV prevention studies, our findings highlight important features of STI/BV epidemiology among sub-Saharan African women. This methodology can be used where routine STI surveillance is limited and offers a new approach to obtaining critical information on STI and BV prevalence in LMICs.

Correction: Prevalence of sexually transmitted infections and bacterial vaginosis among women in sub-Saharan Africa: An individual participant data meta-analysis of 18 HIV prevention studies.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002511.].

A trial of mass isoniazid preventive therapy for tuberculosis control.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is epidemic among workers in South African gold mines. We evaluated an intervention to interrupt tuberculosis transmission by means of mass screening that was linked to treatment for active disease or latent infection. METHODS: In a cluster-randomized study, we designated 15 clusters with 78,744 miners as either intervention clusters (40,981 miners in 8 clusters) or control clusters (37,763 miners in 7 clusters). In the intervention clusters, all miners were offered tuberculosis screening. If active tuberculosis was diagnosed, they were referred for treatment; if not, they were offered 9 months of isoniazid preventive therapy. The primary outcome was the cluster-level incidence of tuberculosis during the 12 months after the intervention ended. Secondary outcomes included tuberculosis prevalence at study completion. RESULTS: In the intervention clusters, 27,126 miners (66.2%) underwent screening. Of these miners, 23,659 (87.2%) started taking isoniazid, and isoniazid was dispensed for 6 months or more to 35 to 79% of miners, depending on the cluster. The intervention did not reduce the incidence of tuberculosis, with rates of 3.02 per 100 person-years in the intervention clusters and 2.95 per 100 person-years in the control clusters (rate ratio in the intervention clusters, 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 1.34; P=0.98; adjusted rate ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.76 to 1.21; P=0.71), or the prevalence of tuberculosis (2.35% vs. 2.14%; adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.65 to 1.48; P=0.90). Analysis of the direct effect of isoniazid in 10,909 miners showed a reduced incidence of tuberculosis during treatment (1.10 cases per 100 person-years among miners receiving isoniazid vs. 2.91 cases per 100 person-years among controls; adjusted rate ratio, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.88; P=0.03), but there was a subsequent rapid loss of protection. CONCLUSIONS: Mass screening and treatment for latent tuberculosis had no significant effect on tuberculosis control in South African gold mines, despite the successful use of isoniazid in preventing tuberculosis during treatment. (Funded by the Consortium to Respond Effectively to the AIDS TB Epidemic and others; Thibela TB Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN63327174.).

Bias and inference from misspecified mixed-effect models in stepped wedge trial analysis.

Many stepped wedge trials (SWTs) are analysed by using a mixed-effect model with a random intercept and fixed effects for the intervention and time periods (referred to here as the standard model). However, it is not known whether this model is robust to misspecification. We simulated SWTs with three groups of clusters and two time periods; one group received the intervention during the first period and two groups in the second period. We simulated period and intervention effects that were either common-to-all or varied-between clusters. Data were analysed with the standard model or with additional random effects for period effect or intervention effect. In a second simulation study, we explored the weight given to within-cluster comparisons by simulating a larger intervention effect in the group of the trial that experienced both the control and intervention conditions and applying the three analysis models described previously. Across 500 simulations, we computed bias and confidence interval coverage of the estimated intervention effect. We found up to 50% bias in intervention effect estimates when period or intervention effects varied between clusters and were treated as fixed effects in the analysis. All misspecified models showed undercoverage of 95% confidence intervals, particularly the standard model. A large weight was given to within-cluster comparisons in the standard model. In the SWTs simulated here, mixed-effect models were highly sensitive to departures from the model assumptions, which can be explained by the high dependence on within-cluster comparisons. Trialists should consider including a random effect for time period in their SWT analysis model. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bacterial vaginosis among women at high risk for HIV in Uganda: high rate of recurrent diagnosis despite treatment.

OBJECTIVES: Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is associated with increased risk for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV acquisition. This study describes the epidemiology of BV in a cohort of women at high risk for STI/HIV in Uganda over 2 years of follow-up between 2008-2011. METHODS: 1027 sex workers or bar workers were enrolled and asked to attend 3-monthly follow-up visits. Factors associated with prevalent BV were analysed using multivariate random-effects logistic regression. The effect of treatment on subsequent episodes of BV was evaluated with survival analysis. RESULTS: Prevalences of BV and HIV at enrolment were 56% (573/1027) and 37% (382/1027), respectively. Overall, 905 (88%) women tested positive for BV at least once in the study, over a median of four visits. Younger age, a higher number of previous sexual partners and current alcohol use were independently associated with prevalent BV. BV was associated with STIs, including HIV. Hormonal contraception and condom use were protective against BV. Among 853 treated BV cases, 72% tested positive again within 3 months. There was no difference in time to subsequent BV diagnosis between treated and untreated women. CONCLUSIONS: BV was highly prevalent and persistent in this cohort despite treatment. More effective treatment strategies are urgently needed.

Hormonal contraception and the risk of HIV acquisition: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies of a putative association between hormonal contraception (HC) and HIV acquisition have produced conflicting results. We conducted an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of studies from sub-Saharan Africa to compare the incidence of HIV infection in women using combined oral contraceptives (COCs) or the injectable progestins depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) or norethisterone enanthate (NET-EN) with women not using HC. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Eligible studies measured HC exposure and incident HIV infection prospectively using standardized measures, enrolled women aged 15-49 y, recorded ≥15 incident HIV infections, and measured prespecified covariates. Our primary analysis estimated the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) using two-stage random effects meta-analysis, controlling for region, marital status, age, number of sex partners, and condom use. We included 18 studies, including 37,124 women (43,613 woman-years) and 1,830 incident HIV infections. Relative to no HC use, the aHR for HIV acquisition was 1.50 (95% CI 1.24-1.83) for DMPA use, 1.24 (95% CI 0.84-1.82) for NET-EN use, and 1.03 (95% CI 0.88-1.20) for COC use. Between-study heterogeneity was mild (I(2) < 50%). DMPA use was associated with increased HIV acquisition compared with COC use (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 1.23-1.67) and NET-EN use (aHR 1.32, 95% CI 1.08-1.61). Effect estimates were attenuated for studies at lower risk of methodological bias (compared with no HC use, aHR for DMPA use 1.22, 95% CI 0.99-1.50; for NET-EN use 0.67, 95% CI 0.47-0.96; and for COC use 0.91, 95% CI 0.73-1.41) compared to those at higher risk of bias (p(interaction) = 0.003). Neither age nor herpes simplex virus type 2 infection status modified the HC-HIV relationship. CONCLUSIONS: This IPD meta-analysis found no evidence that COC or NET-EN use increases women's risk of HIV but adds to the evidence that DMPA may increase HIV risk, underscoring the need for additional safe and effective contraceptive options for women at high HIV risk. A randomized controlled trial would provide more definitive evidence about the effects of hormonal contraception, particularly DMPA, on HIV risk.

Tuberculosis control in South African gold mines: mathematical modeling of a trial of community-wide isoniazid preventive therapy.

A recent major cluster randomized trial of screening, active disease treatment, and mass isoniazid preventive therapy for 9 months during 2006-2011 among South African gold miners showed reduced individual-level tuberculosis incidence but no detectable population-level impact. We fitted a dynamic mathematical model to trial data and explored 1) factors contributing to the lack of population-level impact, 2) the best-achievable impact if all implementation characteristics were increased to the highest level achieved during the trial ("optimized intervention"), and 3) how tuberculosis might be better controlled with additional interventions (improving diagnostics, reducing treatment delay, providing isoniazid preventive therapy continuously to human immunodeficiency virus-positive people, or scaling up antiretroviral treatment coverage) individually and in combination. We found the following: 1) The model suggests that a small proportion of latent infections among human immunodeficiency virus-positive people were cured, which could have been a key factor explaining the lack of detectable population-level impact. 2) The optimized implementation increased impact by only 10%. 3) Implementing additional interventions individually and in combination led to up to 30% and 75% reductions, respectively, in tuberculosis incidence after 10 years. Tuberculosis control requires a combination prevention approach, including health systems strengthening to minimize treatment delay, improving diagnostics, increased antiretroviral treatment coverage, and effective preventive treatment regimens.

Prevalence of human papillomavirus in adolescent girls before reported sexual debut.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are recommended for girls prior to sexual debut because they are most effective if administered before girls acquire HPV. Little research has been done on HPV prevalence in girls who report not having passed sexual debut in high HPV-prevalence countries. METHODS: Using attendance registers of randomly selected primary schools in the Mwanza region of Tanzania, we enrolled girls aged 15-16 years who reported not having passed sexual debut. A face-to-face interview on sexual behavior and intravaginal practices, and a nurse-assisted self-administered vaginal swab were performed. Swabs were tested for 13 high-risk and 24 low-risk HPV genotypes. RESULTS: HPV was detected in 40/474 (8.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.9-11.0) girls. Ten different high-risk and 21 different low-risk genotypes were detected. High-risk genotypes were detected in 5.3% (95% CI, 3.5-7.8). In multivariable analysis, only intravaginal cleansing (practiced by 20.9%) was associated with HPV detection (adjusted odds ratio = 2.19, 95% CI, 1.09-4.39). CONCLUSION: This cohort of adolescent Tanzanian girls had a high HPV prevalence prior to self-reported sexual debut, and this was associated with intravaginal cleansing. This most likely reflects underreporting of sexual activity, and it is possible that intravaginal cleansing is a marker for unreported sexual debut or nonpenetrative sexual behaviors.