Developing and applying control charts to detect changes in water chemistry parameters measured in the Athabasca River near the oil sands: A tool for surveillance monitoring.

Control charting is a simple technique to identify change and is well suited for use in water quality programs. Control charts accounting for covariation associated with discharge and in some cases time were used to explore example and representative variables routinely measured in the Athabasca River near the oil sands area for indications of change. The explored variables include 5 major ions (chloride, sodium, sulfate, calcium, magnesium), 5 total metals (aluminum, iron, thallium, molybdenum, vanadium), and total suspended solids at two sites straddling the developments north of Fort McMurray. Regression equations developed from reference data (1988-2009) were used to predict observations and calculate residuals from later test data (2010-2016). Evidence of change was sought in the deviation of residual errors from the test period compared with the patterns expected and defined from probability distributions of the reference residuals using the odds ratio. In most cases, the patterns in test residuals were not statistically different from those expected from the reference period at either site, especially when data were examined annually. However, differences were found at both locations, more were found at the downstream site, and more differences emerged as data accumulated and were analyzed over time. In sum, the analyses at the downstream site suggest higher concentrations than predicted in most major ions, but the source of the changes is uncertain. In contrast, the concentrations of most metals at during the test period were lower than expected, which may be related to deposition patterns of materials or weathering of minerals during construction activities of the 2000s which influence the reference data used. The analyses also suggest alternative approaches may be necessary to understand change in some variables. Despite this, the results support the use of control charts to detect changes in water chemistry parameters and the value of the tool in surveillance phases of long-term and adaptive monitoring programs. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:2296-2311. © 2018 SETAC.

Using adaptive processes and adverse outcome pathways to develop meaningful, robust, and actionable environmental monitoring programs.

The primary goals of environmental monitoring are to indicate whether unexpected changes related to development are occurring in the physical, chemical, and biological attributes of ecosystems and to inform meaningful management intervention. Although achieving these objectives is conceptually simple, varying scientific and social challenges often result in their breakdown. Conceptualizing, designing, and operating programs that better delineate monitoring, management, and risk assessment processes supported by hypothesis-driven approaches, strong inference, and adverse outcome pathways can overcome many of the challenges. Generally, a robust monitoring program is characterized by hypothesis-driven questions associated with potential adverse outcomes and feedback loops informed by data. Specifically, key and basic features are predictions of future observations (triggers) and mechanisms to respond to success or failure of those predictions (tiers). The adaptive processes accelerate or decelerate the effort to highlight and overcome ignorance while preventing the potentially unnecessary escalation of unguided monitoring and management. The deployment of the mutually reinforcing components can allow for more meaningful and actionable monitoring programs that better associate activities with consequences. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:877-891. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).