The potential for floral evolution in response to competing selection pressures following the loss of hawkmoth pollination in Ruellia humilis.

PREMISE: In the absence of hawkmoth pollinators, chasmogamous (CH) flowers of Ruellia humilis self-pollinate by two secondary mechanisms. Other floral visitors might exert selection on CH floral traits to restore outcrossing, but at the same time preferential predation of CH seeds generates selection to increase the allocation of resources to cleistogamous (CL) flowers. METHODS: To assess the potential for an evolutionary response to these competing selection pressures, we estimated additive genetic variances ( σ A 2 ${\sigma }_{{\rm{A}}}^{2}$ ) and covariances for 14 reproductive traits and three fitness components in a Missouri population lacking hawkmoth pollinators. RESULTS: We found significant σ A 2 ${\sigma }_{{\rm{A}}}^{2}$ for all 11 floral traits and two measures of resource allocation to CL flowers, indicating the potential for a short-term response to selection on most reproductive traits. Selection generated by seed predators is predicted to increase the percentage of CL flowers by 0.24% per generation, and mean stigma-anther separation is predicted to decrease as a correlated response, increasing the fraction of plants that engage in prior selfing. However, the initial response to this selection is opposed by strong directional dominance. CONCLUSIONS: The predicted evolutionary decrease in the number of CH flowers available for potential outcrossing, combined with the apparent preclusion of potential diurnal pollinators by the pollen-harvesting activities of sweat bees, suggest that 100% cleistogamy is the likely outcome of evolution in the absence of hawkmoths. However, rare mutations with large effects, such as delaying budbreak until after sunrise, could provide pathways for the restoration of outcrossing that are not reachable by gradual quantitative-genetic evolution.

Genetic and environmental integration of the hawkmoth pollination syndrome in Ruellia humilis (Acanthaceae).

Background and Aims: The serial homology of floral structures has made it difficult to assess the relative contributions of selection and constraint to floral integration. The interpretation of floral integration may also be clouded by the tacit, but largely untested, assumption that genetic and environmental perturbations affect trait correlations in similar ways. In this study, estimates of both the genetic and environmental correlations between components of the hawkmoth pollination syndrome are presented for chasmogamous flowers of Ruellia humilis , including two levels of control for serial homology. Methods: A greenhouse population for quantitative genetic analysis was generated by a partial diallel cross between field-collected plants. An average of 634 chasmogamous flowers were measured for each of eight floral traits that contribute to the hawkmoth syndrome. Genetic correlations (across parents) and environmental correlations (across replicate flowers) were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood. Key Results: Stigma height, anther height and floral tube length were very tightly integrated in their responses to both genetic and environmental perturbations. The inclusion of floral disc width as a control for serial homology suggests this integration is an adaptive response to correlational selection imposed by pollinators. In contrast, integration of non-homologous traits was low. Furthermore, when comparisons between the dimensions of serially homologous structures were excluded, the genetic and environmental correlation matrices showed little congruence. Conclusions: The results suggest that hawkmoths have imposed strong correlational selection on floral traits involved in the deposition and removal of pollen, and that this is a consequence of stabilizing selection on the relative positions of stigmas and anthers in the face of substantial flower size variation. Low integration of other floral traits, and conflicting patterns of genetic and environmental correlations among these traits, suggest weak or no correlational selection within the range of variability expressed within a population.

Economic and environmental benefits of higher-octane gasoline.

We quantify the economic and environmental benefits of designing U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDVs) to attain higher fuel economy by utilizing higher octane (98 RON) gasoline. We use engine simulations, a review of experimental data, and drive cycle simulations to estimate the reduction in fuel consumption associated with using higher-RON gasoline in individual vehicles. Lifecycle CO2 emissions and economic impacts for the U.S. LDV fleet are estimated based on a linear-programming refinery model, a historically calibrated fleet model, and a well-to-wheels emissions analysis. We find that greater use of high-RON gasoline in appropriately tuned vehicles could reduce annual gasoline consumption in the U.S. by 3.0-4.4%. Accounting for the increase in refinery emissions from production of additional high-RON gasoline, net CO2 emissions are reduced by 19-35 Mt/y in 2040 (2.5-4.7% of total direct LDV CO2 emissions). For the strategies studied, the annual direct economic benefit is estimated to be $0.4-6.4 billion in 2040, and the annual net societal benefit including the social cost of carbon is estimated to be $1.7-8.8 billion in 2040. Adoption of a RON standard in the U.S. in place of the current antiknock index (AKI) may enable refineries to produce larger quantities of high-RON gasoline.

Social jobs and the returns to drinking.

We uniquely show that the returns to drinking in social jobs exceed those in non-social jobs. The higher returns remain when controlling for worker personality, when including individual fixed effects and in a series of robustness exercises. This showing fits the hypothesis that drinking assists the formation of social capital, capital that has greater value in social jobs. We are also the first to show that drinking may proxy both general and specific social capital formation. Drinking during a previous employer and during a current employer have returns and each have higher returns in a current social job.

Prevalence of COVID-19 IgG Antibodies in a Cohort of Municipal First Responders.

BACKGROUND: Although first responders (FRs) represent a high-risk group for exposure, little information is available regarding their risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. The purpose of the current study was to determine the serological prevalence of past COVID-19 infection in a cohort of municipal law enforcement (LE) and firefighters (FFs). METHODS: Descriptive analysis of a de-identified data reporting Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoglobulin G (IgG), or COR2G, serology results for municipal FRs. As part of the serology process, FRs were surveyed for COVID-19-like symptoms since February 2020 and asked to report any prior COVID-19 nasal swab testing. Descriptive statistics and two-sided Chi Square tests with Yates correction were used to compare groups. RESULTS: Of 318 FRs, 225 (80.2%) underwent serology testing (LE: 163/207 [78.7%]; FF: 92/111 [82.9%]). The prevalence of positive serology for all FRs tested was 3/255 (1.2%). Two LE (1.2%) and one FF (1.1%) had positive serology (P = 1.0). Two hundred and twenty-four FRs responded to a survey regarding prior symptoms and testing. Fifty-eight (25.9%) FRs (44 LE; 14 FFs) reported the presence of COVID-19-like symptoms. Of these, only nine (15.5%) received reverse transcriptase - polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing; none were positive. Two of the three FRs with positive serology reported no COVID-19-like symptoms and none of these responders had received prior nasal RT-PCR swabs. The overall community positive RT-PCR rate was 0.36%, representing a three-fold higher rate of positive seroprevalence amongst FRs compared with the general population (P = .07). CONCLUSIONS: Amongst a cohort of municipal FRs with low community COVID-19 prevalence, the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-19 IgG Ab was three-fold greater than the general community. Two-thirds of positive FRs reported a lack of symptoms. Only 15.5% of FRs with COVID-19-like symptoms received RT-PCR testing. In addition to workplace control measures, increased testing availability to FRs is critical in limiting infection spread and ensuring response capability.

Overuse of opioids for acute migraine in an Australian emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: Acute migraine is associated with significant personal, economic and work-related disability. Management guidelines advise the use of simple analgesia, triptans, chlorpromazine and anti-emetics based on severity, with avoidance of opioids. We aimed to determine consistency of prescribing patterns in our ED with national guidelines. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of migraine presentations (ICD-10-AM G439) between 2012 and 2016. Exclusion criteria included migraine without headache, other primary headaches and secondary headaches. Demographic and prescribing data were extracted from medical records. Results have been reported as proportions. RESULTS: Of 4769 headache presentations, the application of exclusion criteria led to a total of 744 patients who received a migraine diagnosis (G439). Most were female (558/744, 75%), young (mean age 36.4 years) and had a self-reported migraine history (558/744, 75%). There were 54 different medications prescribed. Paracetamol was more frequently prescribed (385/744, 52%) than aspirin (134/744, 18%). Opioid prescription occurred in nearly half of all presentations (345/744, 46%). Similar opioid prescriptions were also observed in those with a documented history of migraines (253/558, 45%). A minority of patients received triptans (51/744, 7%). Overall, a quarter of patients (189/744, 25%) received no guideline-recommended medications. CONCLUSION: We observed considerable polypharmacy in ED migraine management with inconsistent prescribing patterns. Recommended medications were infrequently used and opioid use was common. Factors influencing prescribing patterns require further investigation in order to improve rates of guideline recommended treatment.

An exact form of the breeder's equation for the evolution of a quantitative trait under natural selection.

Starting with the Price equation, I show that the total evolutionary change in mean phenotype that occurs in the presence of fitness variation can be partitioned exactly into five components representing logically distinct processes. One component is the linear response to selection, as represented by the breeder's equation of quantitative genetics, but with heritability defined as the linear regression coefficient of mean offspring phenotype on parent phenotype. The other components are identified as constitutive transmission bias, two types of induced transmission bias, and a spurious response to selection caused by a covariance between parental fitness and offspring phenotype that cannot be predicted from parental phenotypes. The partitioning can be accomplished in two ways, one with heritability measured before (in the absence of) selection, and the other with heritability measured after (in the presence of) selection. Measuring heritability after selection, though unconventional, yields a representation for the linear response to selection that is most consistent with Darwinian evolution by natural selection because the response to selection is determined by the reproductive features of the selected group, not of the parent population as a whole. The analysis of an explicitly Mendelian model shows that the relative contributions of the five terms to the total evolutionary change depends on the level of organization (gene, individual, or mated pair) at which the parent population is divided into phenotypes, with each frame of reference providing unique insight. It is shown that all five components of phenotypic evolution will generally have nonzero values as a result of various combinations of the normal features of Mendelian populations, including biparental sex, allelic dominance, inbreeding, epistasis, linkage disequilibrium, and environmental covariances between traits. Additive genetic variance can be a poor predictor of the adaptive response to selection in these models. The narrow-sense heritability sigma2A/sigma2P should be viewed as an approximation to the offspring-parent linear regression rather than the other way around.

BIPARENTAL INBREEDING DEPRESSION IN THE SELF-INCOMPATIBLE ANNUAL PLANT GAILLARDIA PULCHELLA (ASTERACEAE).

Biparental inbreeding is thought to be a common feature of plant populations with restricted pollen dispersal. It is generally assumed that the inbreeding depression frequently observed to accompany self-fertilization can be extrapolated to the lesser degrees of consanguinity involved in biparental inbreeding, but this is virtually untested. To test this assumption, seeds collected from a single natural population of the self-incompatible annual Gaillardia pulchella were used to generate full-sib families derived by crossing either noninbred full-sibs (inbred families) or noninbred nonrelatives (outbred families). Members of each family were divided between high-stress and low-stress treatments that differed in soil volume and nutrient level. Inbred seedlings had a lower chance of survival, were more likely to be morphologically abnormal, and grew more slowly than outbred seedlings, indicating the presence of biparental inbreeding depression. Stress treatment had no significant effect on inbreeding depression, and no family stress-environment interactions were detected. Inbreeding did not increase the among-family variance in growth rate, suggesting that inbreeding depression of growth rate is caused by many genes with small individual effects. Relative to direct estimates of inbreeding depression, observed levels of near-neighbor outcrossing depression, presumed to be biparental inbreeding depression, are surprisingly high in many plant species.

Did liberalising bar hours decrease traffic accidents?

Legal bar closing times in England and Wales have historically been early and uniform. Recent legislation liberalised closing times with the object of reducing social problems thought associated with drinking to "beat the clock." Indeed, using both difference in difference and synthetic control approaches we show that one consequence of this liberalisation was a decrease in traffic accidents. This decrease is heavily concentrated among younger drivers. Moreover, we provide evidence that the effect was most pronounced in the hours of the week directly affected by the liberalisation: late nights and early mornings on weekends. This evidence survives a series of robustness checks and suggests at least one socially positive consequence of extending bar hours.

SEXUAL SELECTION BY THE HANDICAP MECHANISM.

The handicap mechanism of sexual selection by female choice has been strongly criticized because it does not cause sexual selection to reinforce viability selection and it cannot account for the origin of mating preferences. However, several models indicate that the handicap mechanism can have important effects when operating in conjunction with Fisher's mechanism in polygynous populations. These models have been criticized because they require that fitness remains heritable indefinitely. I develop a simple haploid model of the handicap mechanism based on nonheritable variation in paternal investment, thus eliminating the problem of heritable fitness. This model produces the same evolutonary dynamics as both simple and quantitative genetic models of the handicap mechanism based on heritable fitness. If the parameters are such that Fisherian runaway selection does not occur in the null model (i.e., the polymorphic equilibria, which lie along the "Fisher line," are stable), then the handicap mechanism turns the Fisher line into an evolutionary trajectory upon which all other trajectories converge. This occurs because Fisher's mechanism generates no net selection on female preference when the population is on the Fisher line, so that any additional source of selection (direct or indirect) on female choice causes the population to evolve deterministically along the Fisher line. This change in the evolutionary dynamics has the important consequence of eliminating the potential for rapid population divergence for mating systems via genetic drift along the Fisher line.

CLINAL VARIATION ASSOCIATED WITH EDAPHIC ECOTONES IN HYBRID POPULATIONS OF GAILLARDIA PULCHELLA.

The variety pulchella of the outcrossing annual plant species Gaillardia pulchella consists of two edaphic races in central Texas which are divergent for one morphological and four electrophoretic characters. Reduced pollen stainability in F1 hybrids suggests the races are also divergent in chromosome structure. The recent proliferation of this species on roadsides and in pastures has led to hybridization between these races. An analysis of character variation in three hybrid populations revealed significant clinal variation associated with edaphic ecotones, and the width of these clines was found to vary among characters in a consistent pattern. It is argued that this pattern is the result of different characters experiencing different effective selection regimes, with narrower clines reflecting greater differentials in effective selection. Several mechanisms are discussed by which selection may impede the transgression of alleles across the ecotones in these populations. The results of this study are compared to the results of parallel studies on the autogamous annual species Avena barbata in California, and it is suggested that the difference between these two species in the width of clines separating edaphic ecotypes may be accounted for by their different breeding systems.

ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN ALLOZYME FREQUENCIES AND SOIL CHARACTERISTICS IN GAILLARDIA PULCHELLA (COMPOSITAE).

Selection favoring different alleles in different environments frequently has been suggested as an explanation for allozyme variation within and among populations. This hypothesis predicts that allozyme frequencies will be correlated with environmental variables. Previous studies on allozyme frequency-environment covariation in plants often have relied on qualitative assessments of the environment and have emphasized highly autogamous species. We have examined allozyme frequency-soil associations in Gaillardia pulchella, an obligately outcrossed annual plant, by regressing the frequencies of 15 common allozymes representing six polymorphic enzyme loci on principal components from a set of 20 quantitative soil variables. Fifty-one populations, representing four taxonomic varieties, were included in the analysis. Among the 26 populations representing the var. pulchella, allozymes Adh-2f and Pgm-1c were significantly associated with a block of highly inter-correlated soil characteristics which serve to discriminate between soils derived from calcareous vs. non-calcareous rock types. This geographically complex pattern of allozyme frequency-soil covariation is not likely to be spurious and, thus, indicates the presence of adaptively differentiated soil races, or ecotypes. However, these results are not sufficient to conclude that the allozyme frequency divergence between ecotypes was mediated by selection, either directly or through genetic hitchhiking. The pattern of allozyme frequency-soil covariation within var. pulchella was not found among the other taxonomic varieties. Patterns of genotype-environment covariation often may be recognizable only within geographically or environmentally restricted groups of populations because of the confounding influences of other environmental variables.