Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty: a geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic 'smart surveillance' methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently. METHODS: The approach uses the 'uncertainty' map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling. RESULTS: The methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphism (a genetic marker of artemisinin resistance) in the Greater Mekong Subregion. CONCLUSION: This methodology, which has broader application to geostatistical mapping in general, could improve the quality and efficiency of drug resistance mapping and thereby guide practical operations to eliminate malaria in affected areas.

Temporal Dynamics of Subclinical Malaria in Different Transmission Zones of Myanmar.

Countries in the Greater Mekong Subregion have committed to eliminate Plasmodium falciparum malaria by 2025. Subclinical malaria infections that can be detected by highly sensitive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing in asymptomatic individuals represent a potential impediment to this goal, although the extent to which these low-density infections contribute to transmission is unclear. To understand the temporal dynamics of subclinical malaria in this setting, a cohort of 2,705 participants from three epidemiologically distinct regions of Myanmar was screened for subclinical P. falciparum and P. vivax infection using ultrasensitive PCR (usPCR). Standard rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for P. falciparum were also performed. Individuals who tested positive for malaria by usPCR were followed for up to 12 weeks. Regression analysis was performed to estimate whether the baseline prevalence of infection and the count of repeated positive tests were associated with demographic, behavioral, and clinical factors. At enrollment, the prevalence of subclinical malaria infection measured by usPCR was 7.7% (1.5% P. falciparum monoinfection, 0.3% mixed P. falciparum and P. vivax, and 6.0% P. vivax monoinfection), while P. falciparum prevalence measured by RDT was just 0.2%. Prevalence varied by geography and was higher among older people and in those with outdoor exposure and travel. No difference was observed in either the prevalence or count of subclinical infection by time of year, indicating that even in low-endemicity areas, a reservoir of subclinical infection persists year-round. If low-density infections are shown to represent a significant source of transmission, identification of high-risk groups and locations may aid elimination efforts.

Molecular epidemiology of resistance to antimalarial drugs in the Greater Mekong subregion: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: The Greater Mekong subregion is a recurrent source of antimalarial drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum malaria. This study aimed to characterise the extent and spread of resistance across this entire region between 2007 and 2018. METHODS: P falciparum isolates from Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia were obtained from clinical trials and epidemiological studies done between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2018, and were genotyped for molecular markers (pfkelch, pfcrt, pfplasmepsin2, and pfmdr1) of antimalarial drug resistance. Genetic relatedness was assessed using microsatellite and single nucleotide polymorphism typing of flanking sequences around target genes. FINDINGS: 10 632 isolates were genotyped. A single long pfkelch Cys580Tyr haplotype (from -50 kb to +31·5 kb) conferring artemisinin resistance (PfPailin) now dominates across the eastern Greater Mekong subregion. Piperaquine resistance associated with pfplasmepsin2 gene amplification and mutations in pfcrt downstream of the Lys76Thr chloroquine resistance locus has also developed. On the Thailand-Myanmar border a different pfkelch Cys580Tyr lineage rose to high frequencies before it was eliminated. Elsewhere in Myanmar the Cys580Tyr allele remains widespread at low allele frequencies. Meanwhile a single artemisinin-resistant pfkelch Phe446Ile haplotype has spread across Myanmar. Despite intense use of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in Kayin state, eastern Myanmar, both in treatment and mass drug administrations, no selection of piperaquine resistance markers was observed. pfmdr1 amplification, a marker of resistance to mefloquine, remains at low prevalence across the entire region. INTERPRETATION: Artemisinin resistance in P falciparum is now prevalent across the Greater Mekong subregion. In the eastern Greater Mekong subregion a multidrug resistant P falciparum lineage (PfPailin) dominates. In Myanmar a long pfkelch Phe446Ile haplotype has spread widely but, by contrast with the eastern Greater Mekong subregion, there is no indication of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) partner drug resistance from genotyping known markers, and no evidence of spread of ACT resistant P falciparum from the east to the west. There is still a window of opportunity to prevent global spread of ACT resistance. FUNDING: Thailand Science Research and Innovation, Initiative 5%, Expertise France, Wellcome Trust.

Spread of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in Myanmar: a cross-sectional survey of the K13 molecular marker.

BACKGROUND: Emergence of artemisinin resistance in southeast Asia poses a serious threat to the global control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Discovery of the K13 marker has transformed approaches to the monitoring of artemisinin resistance, allowing introduction of molecular surveillance in remote areas through analysis of DNA. We aimed to assess the spread of artemisinin-resistant P falciparum in Myanmar by determining the relative prevalence of P falciparum parasites carrying K13-propeller mutations. METHODS: We did this cross-sectional survey at malaria treatment centres at 55 sites in ten administrative regions in Myanmar, and in relevant border regions in Thailand and Bangladesh, between January, 2013, and September, 2014. K13 sequences from P falciparum infections were obtained mainly by passive case detection. We entered data into two geostatistical models to produce predictive maps of the estimated prevalence of mutations of the K13 propeller region across Myanmar. FINDINGS: Overall, 371 (39%) of 940 samples carried a K13-propeller mutation. We recorded 26 different mutations, including nine mutations not described previously in southeast Asia. In seven (70%) of the ten administrative regions of Myanmar, the combined K13-mutation prevalence was more than 20%. Geospatial mapping showed that the overall prevalence of K13 mutations exceeded 10% in much of the east and north of the country. In Homalin, Sagaing Region, 25 km from the Indian border, 21 (47%) of 45 parasite samples carried K13-propeller mutations. INTERPRETATION: Artemisinin resistance extends across much of Myanmar. We recorded P falciparum parasites carrying K13-propeller mutations at high prevalence next to the northwestern border with India. Appropriate therapeutic regimens should be tested urgently and implemented comprehensively if spread of artemisinin resistance to other regions is to be avoided. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust-Mahidol University-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Programme and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.