Narrow habitat breadth and late-summer emergence increases extinction vulnerability in Central European bees.

Evaluating intrinsic and extrinsic traits that predispose species to local extinction is important for targeting conservation efforts. Among the species of special concern in Europe are bees, which, along with butterflies, are the best monitored insects. Bees are most species-rich in Mediterranean-type climates with short winters, warm springs, and dry summers. In Central Europe, climate warming per se is, therefore, expected to benefit most bee species, while pesticides and the loss of habitats and plant diversity should constitute threats. Here, we use the bee fauna of Germany, which has been monitored for Red Lists for over 40 years, to analyse the effects of habitat breadth, pollen specialization, body size, nesting sites, sociality, duration of flight activity, and time of emergence during the season. We tested each factor's predictive power against changes in commonness and Red List status, using phylogenetically informed hierarchical Bayesian (HB) models. Extinction vulnerability is strongly increased in bees flying in late summer, with a statistical model that included flight time, habitat preference, and duration of activity correctly predicting the vulnerability status of 85% of the species. Conversely, spring emergence and occurrence in urban areas each reduce vulnerability, pointing to intensive land use especially harming summer-active bees, with the combination of these factors currently shifting Germany's bee diversity towards warm-adapted, spring-flying, city-dwelling species.

Correction to: Changes in the bee fauna of a German botanical garden between 1997 and 2017, attributable to climate warming, not other parameters.

The same is included here.

Changes in the bee fauna of a German botanical garden between 1997 and 2017, attributable to climate warming, not other parameters.

Botanical gardens represent artificial, but stable environments. With this premise, we analyzed the Munich Botanical Garden's bee fauna in 1997/1999 and again in 2015/2017. The garden covers 20 ha, uses no bee-relevant insecticides, has a protected layout, and on three sides abuts protected areas. Outdoors, it cultivates some 10,871 species/subspecies, many suitable as pollen and nectar sources for bees. The first survey found 79 species, the second 106, or 55% of the 192 species recorded for Munich since 1990. A Jackknife estimate for the second survey suggests 115 expected species. Classifying bees according to their thermal preferences (warm habitats, cool habitats, broad preferences, or unknown) revealed that 15 warm-loving species were gained (newly found), two lost (no longer found), and 12 retained, but only one cool-loving species was gained, three lost, and none retained, which multinomial models show to be significant differences. Of the 62 retained species, 27 changed in abundance, with 18 less frequent and nine more frequent by 2017 than they had been in 1997/1999. Retention, gain, or loss were unconnected to pollen specialization and Red List status of bee species. Between 1997 and 2017, average temperatures in Munich have increased by 0.5 °C, and climate warming over the past century is the most plausible explanation for the directional increase in warm-loving and the decrease in cool-adapted species. These results highlight the potential of botanic gardens with their artificially diverse and near-pesticide-free floras as systems in which to investigate climate change per se as a possible factor in shifting insect diversity.