Visit-to-visit HbA1c variability and risk of potentially avoidable hospitalisations in adults with type 2 diabetes receiving outpatient care at a tertiary hospital.

AIMS: This study aims to investigate the relationship between long-term visit-to-visit within-person HbA1c variability and hospitalisation outcomes in adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: We conducted a cohort study at a tertiary hospital in Singapore involving people aged 21 to 101 years with T2D who had ≥3 HbA1c tests over 2 years. HbA1c variability was assessed using coefficient of variation (CV), variability independent of the mean (VIM) and HbA1c variability score (HVS). A 1-year follow-up was performed after the last HbA1c measurement to identify all-cause and potentially avoidable hospitalisations (PAH), categorised as overall, acute, chronic and diabetes composites. RESULTS: The study included 14 923 patients (mean age: 62.9 ± 12.9 years; 55% male). The median HbA1c variability was 8.6% CV (IQR: 5.1-14.3). Higher quartiles of HbA1c variability were associated with greater risks of PAH and all-cause hospitalisations, independent of glycaemic control. Compared to Q1, for example, the risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals for diabetes-related PAH based on HbA1c CV were as follows: Q2, 1.32 (0.93-1.88); Q3, 1.65 (1.18-2.31) and Q4, 2.16 (1.54-3.03). For all-cause hospitalisations, they were as follows: Q2, 0.97 (0.90-1.05); Q3, 1.08 (1.00-1.17) and Q4, 1.16 (1.07-1.26). When stratified by glycaemic control, elevated risk of PAH persisted even in those with optimal glycaemic control. Consistent findings were observed using HbA1c VIM and HVS measures. CONCLUSIONS: In individuals receiving care at specialist outpatient clinics of a tertiary hospital, HbA1c variability is associated with a higher risk of PAH. Comprehensive diabetes management strategies addressing both glycaemic control and variability may offer benefits.

Gender-specific analysis of social connection patterns and risk of dementia in community-dwelling older people.

INTRODUCTION: Poor social connection is considered a risk factor for dementia. Since socializing behaviors may cluster together or act compensatorily, we aimed to investigate social connection patterns and their association with dementia, for men and women separately. METHODS: A total of 12,896 community-dwelling older adults (mean ± SD age: 75.2 ± 4.3 years, 54% women) without major cognitive impairment were included. Latent class analysis was conducted using 24 baseline social connection indicators. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the association between latent classes and incident dementia over 12 (median: 8.4) years follow-up. RESULTS: Three distinct classes were identified in both genders: strong social connections with an intermediate friend-relative network (Class 1: men, 43.8%; women, 37.9%), weak social connections (Class 2: men, 29.6%; women, 27.4%), and strong social connections with a larger friend-relative network (Class 3: men, 26.6%; women, 34.7%). Compared to Class 1, men in Class 2 (HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.08-1.77) and women in Class 3 (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.01-1.60) had an increased risk of dementia. DISCUSSION: Dementia risk varies with different social connection patterns among older men and women. HIGHLIGHTS: Three distinct social connection patterns were identified based on 24 indicators. These patterns were related to dementia risk differently in men and women. In men, a weak social connection pattern was associated with a higher dementia risk. In women, a strong social connection with a relatively larger friend-relative network was associated with a greater dementia risk.

A Systematic Review of Artificial Intelligence Models for Time-to-Event Outcome Applied in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction.

Artificial intelligence (AI) based predictive models for early detection of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk are increasingly being utilised. However, AI based risk prediction models that account for right-censored data have been overlooked. This systematic review (PROSPERO protocol CRD42023492655) includes 33 studies that utilised machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models for survival outcome in CVD prediction. We provided details on the employed ML and DL models, eXplainable AI (XAI) techniques, and type of included variables, with a focus on social determinants of health (SDoH) and gender-stratification. Approximately half of the studies were published in 2023 with the majority from the United States. Random Survival Forest (RSF), Survival Gradient Boosting models, and Penalised Cox models were the most frequently employed ML models. DeepSurv was the most frequently employed DL model. DL models were better at predicting CVD outcomes than ML models. Permutation-based feature importance and Shapley values were the most utilised XAI methods for explaining AI models. Moreover, only one in five studies performed gender-stratification analysis and very few incorporate the wide range of SDoH factors in their prediction model. In conclusion, the evidence indicates that RSF and DeepSurv models are currently the optimal models for predicting CVD outcomes. This study also highlights the better predictive ability of DL survival models, compared to ML models. Future research should ensure the appropriate interpretation of AI models, accounting for SDoH, and gender stratification, as gender plays a significant role in CVD occurrence.

Lifetime posttraumatic stress disorder as a predictor of mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) could potentially increase the risk of mortality, and there is a need for a meta-analysis to quantify this association. This study aims to determine the extent to which PTSD is a predictor of mortality. METHODS: EMBASE, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO were searched systematically on 12th February 2020, with updated searches conducted in July 2021, and December 2022 (PROSPERO CRD42019142971). Studies involving community-dwelling participants with a diagnosis of PTSD or PTSD symptoms, and a comparator group of individuals without PTSD, and which assessed mortality risk, were included. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted on studies reporting Odds Ratio (OR), Hazard Ratio (HR), and Risk Ratio (RR), and subgroup analysis was also performed by age, sex, type of trauma experienced, PTSD diagnosis, and cause of death. RESULTS: A total of 30 eligible studies of mostly good methodological quality were identified, with a total of more than 2.1 million participants with PTSD. The majority of studies involved male-dominated, veteran populations. PTSD was associated with a 47% (95% CI: 1.06-2.04) greater risk of mortality across six studies that reported OR/RR, and a 32% increased risk across 18 studies which reported time to death (HR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.10-1.59). There was very high study heterogeneity (I2 > 94%) and this was not explained by the prespecified subgroup analysis. CONCLUSION: PTSD is associated with increased mortality risk, however further research is required amongst civilians, involving women, and in individuals from underdeveloped countries.

Responding to the COVID-19 Outbreak in Singapore: Staff Protection and Staff Temperature and Sickness Surveillance Systems.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Since the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003, Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH) in Singapore has routinely fit-tested staff for high-filtration N95 respirators and established Web-based staff surveillance systems. The routine systems were enhanced in response to Singapore's first imported COVID-19 case on 23 January 2020. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study from 23 January to 23 February 2020 among healthcare workers to evaluate the effectiveness of the staff protection and surveillance strategy in TTSH, a 1600-bed multidisciplinary acute-care hospital colocated with the 330-bed National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID). As of 23 February 2020, TTSH/NCID has managed 76% of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Singapore. The hospital adopted a multipronged approach to protect and monitor staff with potential COVID-19 exposures: (1) risk-based personal protective equipment, (2) staff fever and sickness surveillance, and (3) enhanced medical surveillance of unwell staff. RESULTS: A total of 10 583 staff were placed on hospitalwide fever and sickness surveillance, with 1524 frontline staff working in COVID-19 areas under close surveillance. Among frontline staff, a median of 8 staff illness episodes was seen per day; almost 10% (n = 29) resulted in hospitalization. None of the staff was found to be infected with COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: A robust staff protection and health surveillance system that is routinely implemented during non-outbreak periods and enhanced during the COVID-19 outbreak is effective in protecting frontline staff from the infection.

Comparative Epidemiology of Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci Colonization in an Acute-Care Hospital and Its Affiliated Intermediate- and Long-Term Care Facilities in Singapore.

Vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) are an important cause of nosocomial infections in acute-care hospitals (ACHs), intermediate-care facilities (ITCFs), and long-term care facilities (LTCFs). This study contemporaneously compared the epidemiology and risk factors for VRE colonization in different care settings in a health care network. We conducted a serial cross-sectional study in a 1,700-bed ACH and its six closely affiliated ITCFs and LTCFs in June and July of 2014 to 2016. Rectal swab or stool specimens were cultured for VRE. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess for independent risk factors associated with VRE colonization. Of 5,357 participants, 523 (9.8%) were VRE colonized. VRE prevalence was higher in ACHs (14.2%) than in ITCFs (7.6%) and LTCFs (0.8%). Common risk factors between ACHs and ITCFs included prior VRE carriage, a longer duration of antibiotic therapy, surgery in the preceding 90 days, and the presence of a skin ulcer. Independent risk factors specific to ACH-admitted patients were prior methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus carriage, a higher number of beds per room, prior proton pump inhibitor use, and a length of stay of >14 days. For ITCFs, a length of stay of >14 days was inversely associated with VRE colonization. Similarities and differences in risk factors for VRE colonization were observed between health care settings. VRE prevention efforts should target the respective high-risk patients.

Social Activities and Risk of Dementia in Community-Dwelling Older People: Gender-Specific Findings From a Prospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: This study examines the gender-specific associations between a wide range of social activities and dementia risk. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted involving community-dwelling older Australians (≥70 years) without significant cognitive impairment at enrolment. During the first year of enrolment, we assessed 25 self-reported social activities covering various aspects, including support from relatives and friends, community participation, social interactions with surroundings, and loneliness. Dementia diagnosis followed DSM-IV criteria, adjudicated by an international expert panel. To estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between social activities and dementia, we performed Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, educational attainment, baseline global cognition, and depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Among 9,936 participants who completed all social activity questionnaires (median [IQR] age: 73.4 [71.6-77.1] years; 47.4% men), dementia was diagnosed in 3.8% of men (n = 181/4,705) and 2.6% of women (n = 138/5,231) over a median 6.4 years (IQR: 5.3-7.6, range: 0.2-10.1) follow-up. Gender-specific relationships emerged: caregiving for a person with illness/disability in women (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.42-0.99), and having ≥9 relatives feeling close to call for help in men (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.33-0.96; reference <9 relatives) were associated with reduced dementia risk. Unexpectedly, in women, having ≥5 friends with whom they felt comfortable discussing private matters were associated with a greater dementia risk (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.10-2.59; reference ≤2 friends). Imputed models further identified that babysitting/childminding was associated with lower dementia risk in men (HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.56-0.99). No other social activities showed significant associations with dementia. DISCUSSION: This study provides evidence of social activities influencing dementia risk. Further investigations are required to uncover the mechanisms driving these observed relationships.

Gender-specific aspects of socialisation and risk of cardiovascular disease among community-dwelling older adults: a prospective cohort study using machine learning algorithms and a conventional method.

BACKGROUND: Gender influences cardiovascular disease (CVD) through norms, social relations, roles and behaviours. This study identified gender-specific aspects of socialisation associated with CVD. METHODS: A longitudinal study was conducted, involving 9936 (5,231 women and 4705 men) initially healthy, community-dwelling Australians aged 70 years or more from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study and ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons, with a median follow-up time of 6.4 years. Variable categorisation, variable selection (using machine learning (ML) models; Elastic Net and extreme gradient boosting) and Cox-regression were employed separately by binary gender to identity socialisation factors (n=25 considered) associated with CVD. RESULTS: Different socialisation factors were identified using the ML models. In the Cox model, for both genders, being married/partnered was associated with a reduced risk of CVD (men: HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.96; women: HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.95). For men, having 3-8 relatives they felt close to and could call on for help (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.99; reference <3 relatives), having 3-8 relatives they felt at ease talking with about private matters (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.90; reference <3 relatives) or playing games such as chess or cards (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.00) was associated with reduced risk of CVD. For women, living with others (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.91) or having ≥3 friends they felt at ease talking with about private matters (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.95; reference <3 friends) was associated with a lower risk of CVD. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the need to prioritise gender-specific social factors to improve cardiovascular health in older adults.

Synergistic effects of length of stay and prior MDRO carriage on the colonization and co-colonization of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus, and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales across healthcare settings.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the epidemiology of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE), and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) co-colonization and to compare risk factors between healthcare facility types. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a 3-year cross-sectional study among patients admitted to an acute-care hospital (ACH) and its 6 closely affiliated intermediate- and long-term care facilities (ILTCFs) in Singapore in June and July of 2014-2016. METHODS: Specimens were concurrently collected from nares, axillae, and groins for MRSA detection, and from rectum or stool for VRE and CPE detection. Co-colonization was defined as having >1 positive culture of MRSA/VRE/CPE. Multinomial logistic regression was performed to determine predictors of co-colonization. RESULTS: Of 5,456 patients recruited, 176 (3.2%) were co-colonized, with higher prevalence among patients in ITCFs (53 of 1,255, 4.2%) and the ACH (120 of 3,044, 3.9%) than LTCFs (3 of 1,157, 0.3%). MRSA/VRE was the most common type of co-colonization (162 of 5,456, 3.0%). Independent risk factors for co-colonization included male sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.37-2.80), prior antibiotic therapy of 1-3 days (OR, 10.39; 95% CI, 2.08-51.96), 4-7 days (OR, 4.89; 95% CI, 1.01-23.68), >7 days (OR, 11.72; 95% CI, 2.81-48.85), and having an open wound (OR, 2.34; 95% CI, 1.66-3.29). Additionally, we detected the synergistic interaction of length of stay >14 days and prior multidrug-resistant organism (MDRO) carriage on co-colonization. Having an emergency surgery was a significant predictor of co-colonization in ACH patients, and we detected a dose-response association between duration of antibiotic therapy and co-colonization in ILTCF patients. CONCLUSIONS: We observed common and differential risk factors for MDRO co-colonization across healthcare settings. This study has identified at-risk groups that merit intensive interventions, particularly patients with prior MDRO carriage and longer length of stay.

Effectiveness of social prescribing for chronic disease prevention in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Social prescribing (SP) enables healthcare professionals to link patients with non-medical interventions available in the community to address underlying socioeconomic and behavioural determinants. We synthesised the evidence to understand the effectiveness of SP for chronic disease prevention. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted using five databases and two registries. Eligible studies included randomised controlled trials of SP among community-dwelling adults recruited from primary care or community setting, investigating any chronic disease risk factors defined by the WHO (behavioural factors: smoking, physical inactivity, unhealthy diet and excessive alcohol consumption; metabolic factors: raised blood pressure, overweight/obesity, hyperlipidaemia and hyperglycaemia). Random effect meta-analyses were performed at two time points: completion of intervention and follow-up after trial. RESULTS: We identified nine reports from eight trials totalling 4621 participants. All studies evaluated SP exercise interventions which were highly heterogeneous regarding the content, duration, frequency and length of follow-up. Majority of studies had some concerns for risk of bias. Meta-analysis revealed that SP likely increased physical activity (completion: mean difference (MD) 21 min/week, 95% CI 3 to 39, I2=0%; follow-up ≤12 months: MD 19 min/week, 95% CI 8 to 29, I2=0%). However, SP may not improve markers of adiposity, blood pressure, glucose and serum lipid. There were no eligible studies that primarily target unhealthy diet, smoking and excessive alcohol drinking behaviours. CONCLUSIONS: SP exercise interventions probably increased physical activity slightly; however, no benefits were observed for metabolic factors. Determining whether SP is effective in modifying the determinants of chronic diseases and promotes sustainable healthy behaviours is limited by the current evidence of quantification and uncertainty, warranting further rigorous studies. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022346687.

Glycated haemoglobin trajectories and one-year risk of potentially avoidable hospitalisations among adult patients with type 2 diabetes from specialist outpatient clinics of a tertiary hospital: A cohort study.

AIM: To evaluate the association between trajectories of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and potentially avoidable hospitalisations (PAH). METHODS: We performed a cohort study in a tertiary hospital in Singapore among adult type 2 diabetes patients with ≥ 3 HbA1c tests over two years. Then, we followed up for one year after the last HbA1c reading to determine the PAH outcome. Glycaemic control was analysed by (1) HbA1c trajectories through group-based trajectory modelling, and (2) mean HbA1c. PAH was defined using the Agency of Healthcare Research and Quality criteria, categorising as overall, diabetes, acute, and chronic-composites. RESULTS: A total of 14,923 patients (mean age: 62.9 ± 12.8 years; 55.2% men) were included. Four HbA1c trajectories were observed; low-stable (n = 9854, 66.0%), moderate-stable (n = 3125, 20.9%), high-decrease (n = 1017, 6.8%) and high-persistent (n = 927, 6.2%). Compared to the low-stable trajectory, one-year risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI), respectively for moderate-stable, high-decrease and high-persistent trajectories were as follows: (1) overall PAH: 1.15 (1.00-1.31), 1.53 (1.31-1.80), 1.96 (1.58-2.43); (2) diabetes PAH: 1.30 (1.04-1.64), 1.98 (1.55-2.53), 2.24 (1.59-3.15); (3) acute PAH: 1.14 (0.90-1.44), 1.29 (0.95-1.77), 1.75 (1.17-2.62); and (4) chronic PAH: 1.21 (1.02-1.43), 1.62 (1.34-1.97), 2.14 (1.67-2.75). Mean HbA1c was significantly associated with overall and chronic-composites of PAH whilst evidence of a non-linear relationship with diabetes-composite of PAH was noted. CONCLUSION: Patients with high-decrease trajectory had a risk lower than those with persistently-high HbA1c, highlighting that a greater risk of hospitalisation conferred by poor glycaemic control is potentially reversible. Determining HbA1c trajectories could help to identify the high-risk individuals for targeted and intensive management to improve care and reduce hospitalisations.

The Role of Social Determinants of Health in Cardiovascular Diseases: An Umbrella Review.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality worldwide. Addressing social determinants of health (SDoH) may be the next forefront of reducing the enormous burden of CVD. SDoH can be defined as any social, economic, or environmental factor that influences a health outcome. Comprehensive evidence of the role of SDoH in CVD is lacking, nevertheless. This umbrella review aims to give a comprehensive overview of the role of SDoH in CVD. We searched systematic reviews (with or without meta-analyses) using 8 databases and included review reference lists. Four themes (economic circumstances, social/community context, early childhood development, and neighbourhood/built environment) and health literacy in the health/health care theme were considered. Seventy reviews were eligible. Despite the quality of the included reviews being low or critically low, there was consistent evidence that factors relating to economic circumstances and early childhood development themes were associated with an increased risk of CVD and CVD mortality. We also found evidence that factors in the social/community context and neighbourhood/built environment themes, such as social isolation, fewer social roles, loneliness, discrimination, ethnicity, neighborhood socioeconomic status, violence, and environmental attributes, had a role in CVD. SDoH factors without (or with minimal) evidence synthesis for CVD were also identified. In sum, this umbrella review offers evidence that SDoH, especially economic circumstance and early childhood development, play a significant role in CVD. This calls for the strengthening of nonmedical interventions that address multiple factors simultaneously and the inclusion of SDoH in future CVD risk prediction models. Registration URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/; Unique identifier: CRD42022346994.

The relationship between social isolation, social support, and loneliness with cardiovascular disease and shared risk factors: A narrative review.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the greatest contributor to global morbidity and mortality. Poor social health plays a critical role in CVD incidence. Additionally, the relationship between social health and CVD may be mediated through CVD risk factors. However, the underlying mechanisms between social health and CVD are poorly understood. Certain social health constructs (social isolation, low social support and loneliness) have complicated the characterisation of a causal relationship between social health and CVD. AIM: To provide an overview of the relationship between social health and CVD (and its shared risk factors). METHOD: In this narrative review, we examined published literature on the relationship between three social health constructs (social isolation, social support, and loneliness) and CVD. Evidence was synthesised in a narrative format, focusing on the potential ways in which social health affects CVD, including shared risk factors. RESULTS: The current literature highlights an established relationship between social health and CVD with a likelihood for bi-directionality. However, there is speculation and varied evidence regarding how these relationships may be mediated through CVD risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Social health can be considered an established risk factor for CVD. However, the potential bi-directional pathways of social health with CVD risk factors are less established. Further research is needed to understand whether targeting certain constructs of social health may directly improve the management of CVD risk factors. Given the health and economic burdens of poor social health and CVD, improvements to addressing or preventing these interrelated health conditions would have societal benefits.

Systematic review of determinants influencing antibiotic prescribing for uncomplicated acute respiratory tract infections in adult patients at the emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: Overuse of antibiotics in the emergency department (ED) for uncomplicated acute respiratory tract infections (uARTIs) is a public health issue that needs to be addressed. We aimed to identify factors associated with antibiotic use for uARTIs in adults presenting at the ED. DESIGN: We searched Medline, Embase, PsycINFO and the Cochrane Library for articles published from 1 January 2005 to 30 June 2017 using a predetermined search strategy. Titles and abstracts of English articles on antibiotic prescription and inappropriate antibiotic use for adult ARTI at EDs were assessed, followed by full article review, by 2 authors. SETTING: Emergency departments. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 18 years and older. RESULTS: Of the 2,591 articles retrieved, 12 articles met the inclusion criteria and 11 studies were conducted in the United States. Patients with normal C-reactive protein levels and positive influenza tests were less likely to receive antibiotic treatment. Nonclinical factors associated with antibiotic use were longer waiting time and perceived patient desire for antibiotics. Patients attended by internal medicine physicians comanaged by house staff or who visited an ED which provided education to healthcare providers on antibiotics use were less likely to receive antibiotics. CONCLUSIONS: English-language articles that fulfilled the selection criteria outside the United States were limited. Factors associated with antibiotics use are multifaceted. Education of healthcare providers presents an opportunity to improve antibiotic use.

Fending off Delta - Hospital measures to reduce nosocomial transmission of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: Following the emergence of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore, our hospital experienced a Delta-linked ward cluster. In this study, we review the enhanced strategies in preventing nosocomial transmission of COVID-19 following widespread community transmission of the Delta variant. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study on exposures to unexpected COVID-19 cases for which contact tracing was initiated from June 2021 to October 2021. Strategies evaluated included upgraded personal protective equipment (PPE) and rostered routine testing (RRT) for staff and patients, surveillance of staff with acute respiratory illness (ARI), and expanded quarantining and testing for contacts of identified cases. RESULTS: From 193 unexpected COVID-19 exposures, 2,573 staff, 542 patients, and 128 visitor contacts were traced. Four staff contacts subsequently had SARS-CoV-2 infection. Two were likely from exposure in community settings, whereas 2 had exposure to the same COVID-19 positive staff in the hospital, forming the only hospital cluster. One inpatient had a nosocomial infection, possibly from visitors. The SARS-CoV-2 detection rate among staff was 0.3% (of 11,200 staff) from biweekly RRT and 2.5% (of 3,675 staff) from ARI surveillance. CONCLUSION: Enhanced hospital measures, including upgraded PPE and RRT for staff and patients, staff sickness surveillance, and more rigorous management of contacts of COVID-19 cases, were likely to have reduced nosocomial transmission amid the Delta variant.

Association of systemic vitamin D on the course of dengue virus infection in adults: a single-centre dengue cohort study at a large institution in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Host immune responses may impact dengue severity in adults. Vitamin D has multiple immunomodulatory effects on innate and adaptive immunity. METHODS: We evaluated the association between systemic 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25-(OH) D] and dengue disease severity in adults. We measured plasma for total 25-(OH) D levels with an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay using stored samples from participants with laboratory confirmed dengue who were prospectively enrolled in 2012-2016 at our institution. RESULTS: 80 participants (median age 43 years) were enrolled. Six participants had severe dengue based on the World Health Organisation (WHO) 1997 criteria (i.e. dengue haemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome) and another six had severe dengue based on the WHO 2009 criteria. Median 25-(OH) D at acute phase of dengue was 6.175 µg/L (interquartile range 3.82-8.21; range 3.00-15.29) in all participants. 25-(OH) D showed inverse linear trend with severe dengue manifestations based on the WHO 2009 criteria (aRR 0.72; 95% confidence interval 0.57-0.91; p < 0.01) after adjustment for age, gender and ethnicity. CONCLUSION: Limited studies have evaluated the role of systemic 25-(OH) D on dengue severity. Our study found low systemic 25-(OH) D was associated with increased dengue disease severity, particularly for severe bleeding that was not explained by thrombocytopenia. Further studies investigating the underlying immune mechanisms and effects on the vascular endothelium are needed.

Functional improvement after inpatient rehabilitation in community hospitals following acute hospital care.

INTRODUCTION: There are limited studies exploring functional improvement in relation to characteristics of patients who, following acute hospital care, receive inpatient rehabilitation in community hospitals. We evaluated the association of acute hospital admission-related factors with functional improvement on community hospital discharge. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among patients who were transferred to community hospitals within 14-day post-discharge from acute hospital between 2016 and 2018. Modified Barthel Index (MBI) on a 100-point ordinal scale was used to assess functional status on admission to and discharge from the community hospital. We categorised MBI into 6 bands: 0-24, 25-49, 50-74, 75-90, 91-99 and 100. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to determine factors associated with categorical improvement in functional status, defined as an increase in at least one MBI band between admission and discharge. RESULTS: A total of 5,641 patients (median age 77 years, interquartile range 69-84; 44.2% men) were included for analysis. After adjusting for potential confounders, factors associated with functional improvement were younger age, a higher MBI on admission, and musculoskeletal diagnosis for the acute hospital admission episode. In contrast, a history of dementia or stroke; lower estimated glomerular filtration rate; abnormal serum albumin or anaemia measured during the acute hospital episode; and diagnoses of stroke, cardiac disease, malignancy, falls or pneumonia; and other chronic respiratory diseases were associated with lower odds of functional improvement. CONCLUSION: Clinicians may want to take into account the presence of these high-risk factors in their patients when planning rehabilitation programmes, in order to maximise the likelihood of functional improvement.

Classic myeloproliferative neoplasms in Singapore: A population-based study on incidence, trends, and survival from 1968 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Current descriptive epidemiological information on classic myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) is incomplete. Published data among Asian population are particularly sparse. METHODS: We conducted a large population-based study to determine the incidence rates and survival patterns of MPN reported to the Singapore Cancer Registry during the period 1968-2017. Age-standardised incidence rates(ASR), overall survival, 5-/10-year relative survival ratio (RSR) were estimated. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate quinquennial percent change (QPC) in incidence. RESULTS: We identified 2557 individuals diagnosed with MPN including 1031 chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML), 424 polycythaemia vera (PV), 389 essential thrombocythaemia (ET), 134 primary myelofibrosis (PMF) and 579 MPN unclassifiable (MPN-U). The overall respective ASRs per 100,000 for CML, PV, ET, PMF and MPN-U were 1.24, 1.15, 1.07, 0.43, and 0.80 in 2013-2017. Males had higher ASR than females in all MPNs. A gradual rise in incidence trends of CML was observed between 1968 and 2017 (QPC 2.1%, 95% CI -0.9, 5.3). The overall incidence trends of non-CML MPNs including PV (QPC 62.9%, 95% CI 19.3, 122.6), ET (QPC 54.2%, 95% CI 23.5, 92.3) and PMF (QPC 103.5%, 95% CI 19.1, 247.6) increased sharply during 1993-2017. Survival was lower in MPNs compared with expected survival in general population: 5-year RSRs were 0.82 (95% CI 0.78, 0.86), 0.96 (95% CI 0.91, 1.01), 0.96 (95% CI 0.92, 1.01), 0.53 (95% CI 0.43, 0.65), and 0.74 (95% CI 0.68, 0.80) for CML, PV, ET, PMF and MPN-U respectively. CONCLUSION: CML incidence has increased marginally, whereas non-CML MPNs incidences have sharply increased. MPN patients have a lower relative survival compared to the general population, and patients with PV and ET have the most favourable relative survival. Median survival for CML patients has increased dramatically over the last 50 years.