Laboratory investigation results influence Physician's Global Assessment (PGA) of disease activity in SLE.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of laboratory results on scoring of the Physician Global Assessment (PGA) of disease activity in systemic lupus erythematosus. METHODS: Fifty clinical vignettes were presented via an online survey to a group of international lupus experts. For each case, respondents scored the PGA pre and post knowledge of laboratory test results (pre-lab and post-lab PGAs). Agreement between individual assessors and relationships between pre-lab and post-lab PGAs, and PGAs and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K) were determined. Respondents were also asked about factors they incorporate into their PGA determinations. RESULTS: Sixty surveys were completed. The inter-rater PGA reliability was excellent (pre-lab intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) 0.98; post-lab ICC 0.99). Post-lab PGAs were higher than pre-lab PGAs: median (IQR) pre-lab PGA 0.5 (1.05), post-lab PGA 1 (1.3) (p<0.001), with a median (IQR) difference of 0.2 (0.45). In general, all abnormal labs including elevated anti-double stranded DNA antibody level (dsDNA) and low complement impacted PGA assessment. Cases with weakest correlations between pre-lab and post-lab PGA were characterised by laboratory results revealing nephritis and/or haematological manifestations. Both pre-lab and post-lab PGAs correlated with SLEDAI-2K. However, a significantly stronger correlation was observed between post-lab PGA and SLEDAI-2K. Multiple factors influenced PGA determinations. Some factors were considered by an overwhelming majority of lupus experts, with less agreement on others. CONCLUSIONS: We found excellent inter-rater reliability for PGAs in a group of international lupus experts. Post-lab PGA scores were higher than pre-lab PGA scores, with a significantly stronger correlation with the SLEDAI-2K. Our findings indicate that PGA scoring should be performed with knowledge of pertinent laboratory results.

Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS) discriminates responders in the BLISS-52 and BLISS-76 phase III trials of belimumab in systemic lupus erythematosus.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the discriminant capacity of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS) in post-hoc analysis of data from the BLISS-52 and BLISS-76 trials of belimumab in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: LLDAS attainment, discrimination between belimumab and placebo arms, and the effects in subgroups with high disease activity at recruitment were evaluated at week 52 using appropriate descriptive statistics, χ2 test and logistic regression. RESULTS: At week 52, for belimumab 10 mg/kg, 17.0% and 19.3% of patients who achieved a Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Responder Index-4 also attained LLDAS in BLISS-52 and BLISS-76, respectively. Significantly more patients attained LLDAS on belimumab 10 mg/kg compared with placebo (12.5% vs 5.8%, OR 2.32, p=0.02 for BLISS-52; 14.4% vs 7.8%, OR 1.98, p=0.04 for BLISS-76). In a subgroup analysis, the difference in week 52 LLDAS attainment between belimumab 10 mg/kg and placebo was greater in patients who had higher disease activity at baseline, compared with the overall group. CONCLUSIONS: LLDAS was able to discriminate belimumab 10 mg/kg from placebo in the BLISS-52 and BLISS-76 trials. Our findings support the validity of LLDAS as an outcome measure in SLE clinical trials.

Development and validation of the Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium Damage Index (SCTC-DI): a novel instrument to quantify organ damage in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to develop the first Damage Index (DI) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: The conceptual definition of 'damage' in SSc was determined through consensus by a working group of the Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium (SCTC). Systematic literature review and consultation with patient partners and non-rheumatologist experts produced a list of potential items for inclusion in the DI. These steps were used to reduce the items: (1) Expert members of the SCTC (n=331) were invited to rate the appropriateness of each item for inclusion, using a web-based survey. Items with >60% consensus were retained; (2) Using a prospectively acquired Australian cohort data set of 1568 patients, the univariable relationships between the remaining items and the endpoints of mortality and morbidity (Physical Component Summary score of the Short Form 36) were analysed, and items with p<0.10 were retained; (3) using multivariable regression analysis, coefficients were used to determine a weighted score for each item. The DI was externally validated in a Canadian cohort. RESULTS: Ninety-three (28.1%) complete survey responses were analysed; 58 of 83 items were retained. The univariable relationships with death and/or morbidity endpoints were statistically significant for 22 items, with one additional item forced into the multivariable model by experts due to clinical importance, to create a 23-item weighted SCTC DI (SCTC-DI). The SCTC-DI was predictive of morbidity and mortality in the external cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Through the combined use of consensus and data-driven methods, a 23-item SCTC-DI was developed and retrospectively validated.

Factors associated with the availability of iodized salt at household level: a case study in Bangladesh.

OBJECTIVE: The availability of iodized salt in households remains low in Bangladesh, which calls for improving the salt iodization quality and its coverage. The present study assessed the socio-economic disparity in Bangladesh to characterize the availability of iodized salt at household level. DESIGN: Associations between different socio-economic factors and availability of iodized salt at household level were explored using Bayesian mixed-effects logistic models after adjusting the district- and cluster-level random effects. SETTING: Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), 2012-13.ParticipantsHouseholds (sample size, n 50981). RESULTS: Results showed that 73·15 % of household salt samples were iodized to some extent although iodization level varied. According to the regression model, houses with young (adjusted odds ratio of posterior mean (OR) = 1·31; 95 % credible interval (CI) 1·09, 1·64) and educated (OR = 3·66; 95 % CI 3·25, 4·23) household heads had significantly higher likelihood of availability of iodized salt. In addition, iodized salt was less likely be found in poor and rural households, as urban households were 2·88 times (95 % CI 2·41, 3·34) more likely have iodized salt. Moreover, the regional locations of the households were an important component that contributed to the local iodized salt coverage. As per the district-wise distribution, the north-west part of Bangladesh and Cox's Bazar in the far south seemed to lack household-level iodized salt. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that iodized salt intervention should be promoted considering the area variations, which could potentially help policy makers to design interventions in the context of Bangladesh.

On-Pump Beating Heart Versus Conventional Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Early After Myocardial Infarction: A Propensity-Score Matched Analysis From the ANZSCTS Database.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) performed early after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) carries a high risk of mortality. By avoiding cardioplegic arrest and aortic cross-clamping, on-pump beating heart CABG (ONBEAT) may benefit patients requiring urgent or emergency revascularisation in the setting of AMI. We evaluated the early and long-term outcomes of ONBEAT versus conventional CABG (ONSTOP) utilising the ANZSCTS National Cardiac Surgery Database. METHODS: Between 2001 and 2015, 5,851 patients underwent non-elective on-pump CABG within 7 days of AMI. Of these, 77 patients (1.3%) underwent ONBEAT and 5774 (98.7%) underwent ONSTOP surgery. Propensity-score matching (with a 1:2 matching ratio) was performed for risk adjustment. Survival data were obtained from the National Death Index. RESULTS: Before matching, the unadjusted 30-day mortality was ONBEAT: 9/77 (11.7%) vs. ONSTOP: 256/5,774 (4.4%), p<0.001. Preoperative factors independently associated with the ONBEAT were: septuagenarian age, peripheral vascular disease, redo surgery, cardiogenic shock, emergency surgery and single-vessel disease. After propensity-score matching, 30-day mortality was similar (ONBEAT: 9/77 (11.7%) vs. ONSTOP: 16/154 (10.4%), p=0.85), as was the rate of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (ONBEAT: 17/77 (22.1%) vs. ONSTOP: 38/154 (24.7%), p=0.84). ONBEAT patients received fewer distal anastomoses and were more likely to have incomplete revascularisation (ONBEAT: 15/77 (19.5%) vs. ONSTOP: 15/154, (9.7%), p=0.03). Despite this, 12-year survival was comparable (ONBEAT: 64.8% (95% CI 39.4-82.4%) vs. ONSTOP: 63.6% (95% CI 50.5, 74.3%), p=0.89). CONCLUSIONS: ONBEAT can be performed safely in high-risk patients requiring CABG early after AMI with similar short and long-term survival compared to ONSTOP.

Thirty-day outcomes in Indigenous Australians following coronary artery bypass grafting.

BACKGROUND: Indigenous Australians have higher rates of cardiovascular disease and comorbidities compared to their non-indigenous counterparts. AIMS: We sought to evaluate whether indigenous status per se portends a worse prognosis following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS: The outcomes of 778 Indigenous Australians (55 ± 10 years; 32% female) enrolled in the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons registry were compared to 36 124 non-Indigenous Australians (66 ± 10 years; 21% female) following isolated CABG. In a secondary analysis, patients were propensity-matched by age, sex, renal function, diabetes and ejection fraction (778 individuals in each group). RESULTS: Indigenous Australians were younger and more likely to be female and current smokers and to have diabetes, hypertension, renal impairment, heart failure and previous CABG (all P < 0.04). Indigenous patients had fewer bypasses with arterial conduits (including less internal mammary artery use) and a higher number of distal vein anastomoses (P < 0.001). Postoperative bleeding rates were higher in indigenous patients (P = 0.001). However, in-hospital and 30-day all-cause mortality and rates of 30-day readmission were similar between both groups, although cardiac mortality was higher in the indigenous cohort (1.5% vs 0.8%, P = 0.02). With propensity-matching, rates of postoperative complications were similar among the two groups, with the exception of bleeding, which remained higher in Indigenous Australians (P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Despite procedural differences and higher rates of baseline comorbidities, Indigenous Australians do not have worse short-term outcomes following isolated CABG. Given the higher rates of baseline comorbidities and lower rates of arterial conduit use, it will be essential to determine long-term outcomes.

Hospital volume and perioperative outcomes for radical cystectomy: a population study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between hospital volume and perioperative outcomes of radical cystectomy (RC) using state population data for a contemporary Australian cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients undergoing RC for urothelial malignancy in the state of Victoria, Australia between July 2003 and June 2014 were identified using the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset (VAED). Hospitals were divided into tertiles according to their caseload per year. Hospitals performing <4 RCs/year were defined as low-volume hospitals (LVH), 4-10 RCs/year as medium-volume hospitals (MVH), and >10 RCs/year as high-volume hospitals (HVH). Perioperative outcomes derived included: in-hospital mortality (IHM), prolonged length of stay (LOS; >14 days), prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) admission (>24 h), and requirement for blood transfusion. The relationship between hospital volume and perioperative outcomes was assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: During the 11-year study period, 803 patients underwent RC for bladder cancer. The overall IHM rate was 2.2% (LVH 3.7%, MVH 2.5%, HVH 0.9%). Other outcomes observed were prolonged LOS (45%), prolonged ICU admission (31%) and requirement for blood transfusion (56%). On multivariate analysis, LVH was found to be associated with increased IHM (odds ratio [OR] 5.74, P = 0.04) and prolonged ICU admission (OR 11.58, P < 0.001) when compared to HVH. There was a lower rate of prolonged LOS for LVH (OR 0.60, P = 0.01). No significant relationship was identified for LVH and blood transfusion. CONCLUSION: Perioperative outcomes in Victoria are comparable to international standards. Our results add further population study evidence to the volume-outcome relationship in RC. There was a significant association between LVH and both IHM and prolonged ICU admission. This subgroup of patients would appear to benefit from transfer of care to a HVH. The role of centralisation of RC in Australia should be further considered.

Validity of the Workers Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire: Specific Health Problem (WPAI:SHP) in patients with systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the construct validity of the Workers Productivity and Impairment Activity Index: Specific Health Problem (WPAI:SHP) in Australian systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients. METHODS: SSc patients, identified through the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study database, completed the WPAI:SHP and a quality of life instrument (PROMIS-29) cross-sectionally. The construct validity of the WPAI:SHP was assessed by the correlations between the WPAI:SHP and a range of SSc health states. Non-parametric correlation, including Spearman's correlation (ρ), was used to test the validity of WPAI:SHP and ability to distinguish between different health states. RESULTS: A total of 476 completed questionnaires was returned, equating to a response rate of 63.7%. Among those under 65 years of age, 155 patients (55.2%) were in paid employment. Employed patients had a mean (± SD) age of 56.5 (9.8) years and were predominantly female (87.3%) with limited disease subtype (75.6%). The WPAI:SHP showed construct validity based on moderate to strong correlations with health status as assessed by a range of health outcome measures including disease activity (ρ=0.34-0.39, p=0.001), physical function (ρ=0.55-0.62, p=0.001), disease severity(ρ=0.55-0.62, p=0.001), fatigue (ρ= 0.62-0.63, p=0.001), pain (ρ=0.68-0.71, p=0.001), and breathlessness (ρ=0.39-0.46, p=0.001). Furthermore, according to the effect size, the WPAI:SHP scores have a large discriminative ability (d=1.26-1.47) for distinguishing SSc patients with different health outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The WPAI is a valid questionnaire for assessing impairments in paid employment and social activities in SSc patients, and for measuring the relative differences between SSc patients with varying health states.

Definition and initial validation of a Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS).

AIMS: Treating to low disease activity is routine in rheumatoid arthritis, but no comparable goal has been defined for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We sought to define and validate a Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS). METHODS: A consensus definition of LLDAS was generated using Delphi and nominal group techniques. Criterion validity was determined by measuring the ability of LLDAS attainment, in a single-centre SLE cohort, to predict non-accrual of irreversible organ damage, measured using the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Damage Index (SDI). RESULTS: Consensus methodology led to the following definition of LLDAS: (1) SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI)-2K ≤4, with no activity in major organ systems (renal, central nervous system (CNS), cardiopulmonary, vasculitis, fever) and no haemolytic anaemia or gastrointestinal activity; (2) no new lupus disease activity compared with the previous assessment; (3) a Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment (SELENA)-SLEDAI physician global assessment (scale 0-3) ≤1; (4) a current prednisolone (or equivalent) dose ≤7.5 mg daily; and (5) well tolerated standard maintenance doses of immunosuppressive drugs and approved biological agents. Achievement of LLDAS was determined in 191 patients followed for a mean of 3.9 years. Patients who spent greater than 50% of their observed time in LLDAS had significantly reduced organ damage accrual compared with patients who spent less than 50% of their time in LLDAS (p=0.0007) and were significantly less likely to have an increase in SDI of ≥1 (relative risk 0.47, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.79, p=0.005). CONCLUSIONS: A definition of LLDAS has been generated, and preliminary validation demonstrates its attainment to be associated with improved outcomes in SLE.

Determinants of unemployment amongst Australian systemic sclerosis patients: results from a multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to assess employment status, risk factors for unemployment and the associations of unemployment with patients' health related quality of life (HRQoL). METHODS: All patients enrolled in a systemic sclerosis (SSc) longitudinal cohort study, completed an employment questionnaire on enrolment. Clinical manifestations were defined based on presence at the time of enrolment. Summary statistics, chi-square tests, univariate and multivariable logistic regression were used to determine the associations of various risk factors with employment. RESULTS: Among 1587 SSc patients, 160 (20%) were unemployed at the time of cohort enrolment excluding retired patients. Of these, 63% had limited disease subtype. Mean (±SD) age at enrollment was 51.9 (±10.4) years; 13 years below the average retirement age in Australia. Mean (±SD) disease duration at recruitment was 11.1 (±10.9) years. Multivariable regression analysis revealed the presence of digital amputation (OR 3.9, 95%CI 1.7-9.1, p=0.002), diffuse disease subtype (OR 2.2, 95%CI 1.3-3.5, p-value=0.002), sicca symptoms (OR 2.7, 95%CI 1.6-4.4, p<0.001), a physical job (OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.1-3.1, p=0.03) and pulmonary arterial hypertension (OR 2.2, 95%CI 1.1-4.5, p=0.02) to be associated with unemployment. Unemployed patients had consistently poorer HRQoL scores in all domains (physical, emotional and mental health) of the SF-36 form than those who were employed. CONCLUSIONS: SSc is associated with substantial work disability and unemployment, which is in turn associated with poor quality of life. Raising awareness, identifying modifiable risk factors and implementing employment strategies and work place modifications are possible ways of reducing this burden.

Risk factors for development of pulmonary arterial hypertension in Australian systemic sclerosis patients: results from a large multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is the leading cause of mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). We sought to determine the incidence, prevalence and risk factors for PAH development in a large Australian SSc cohort. METHODS: PAH was diagnosed on right heart catheterisation (mPAP >25 and PAWP <15 mmHg at rest). Patients with PH secondary to interstitial lung disease (ILD; defined as abnormal HRCT scan and FVC < 60 %) were excluded. Summary statistics, chi-square tests, univariate and multivariable logistic regression along with post-estimation diagnostics were used to determine the associations of different combinations of risk factors with PAH. RESULTS: Among 1579 SSc patients, 8.4 % (132 patients) were diagnosed with PAH over a mean (±SD) follow-up of 3.2 (±2.5) years. The incidence of PAH in this cohort was 0.7 % per annum. Of these, 68.9 % had limited disease subtype (lcSSc). In multivariable regression analysis, the presence of anti-centromere antibody (ACA) (OR 1.6, 95 % CI 1.1-2.5, p = 0.03), oesphageal stricture (OR 2.0, 95 % CI 1.2-3.3, p = 0.006), calcinosis (OR 1.9, 95 % CI 1.2-2.9, p = 0.003), sicca symptoms (OR 1.6, 95 % CI 1.1-2.5, p = 0.03), mild ILD (OR 2.3, 95 % CI 1.5-3.7, p < 0.001) and digital ulcers (OR 1.6, 95 % CI 1.0-2.4, p = 0.03) were predictive of PAH. This model had an area under the curve of 0.7 and concordance of 91.8 %. When analysed by disease subtype, the presence of calcinosis (OR 2.2, 95 % CI 1.4-3.7, p = 0.01), sicca symptoms (OR 2.6, 95 % CI 1.5-4.6, p = 0.001), mild ILD (OR 2.3, 95 % CI 1.4-3.8, p = 0.001) and digital ulcers (OR 1.9, 95 % CI 1.2-3.7, p = 0.01) were predictive of PAH in lcSSc; and oesophageal stricture (OR 4.4, 95 % CI 1.9-10.5, p = 0.001), mild ILD (OR 2.8, 95 % CI 1.2-6.8, p = 0.02) and ACA (OR 5.2, 95 % CI 1.8-14.8, p = 0.002) were predictive of PAH in dcSSc. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and prevalence of PAH in this cohort are 0.7 % per annum and 8.4 %, respectively. The clinical-serologic risk factors for PAH differ based on disease subtype. In both subtypes, mild ILD is associated with PAH, suggesting the possibility of common pathogenic mechanisms underlying both of these disease manifestations. This model identifies a subset of patients at an appreciably higher risk of developing PAH, who should be screened and would in future, benefit from preventative therapies.

Association of systemic lupus erythematosus standard of care immunosuppressants with glucocorticoid use and disease outcomes: a multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: This study examines the association of standard-of-care systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) medications with key outcomes such as low disease activity attainment, flares, damage accrual, and steroid-sparing, for which there is current paucity of data. METHODS: The Asia Pacific Lupus Collaboration (APLC) prospectively collects data across numerous sites regarding demographic and disease characteristics, medication use, and lupus outcomes. Using propensity score methods and panel logistic regression models, we determined the association between lupus medications and outcomes. RESULTS: Among 1707 patients followed over 12,689 visits for a median of 2.19 years, 1332 (78.03%) patients achieved the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS), 976 (57.18%) experienced flares, and on most visits patients were taking an anti-malarial (69.86%) or immunosuppressive drug (76.37%). Prednisolone, hydroxychloroquine and azathioprine were utilised with similar frequency across all organ domains; methotrexate for musculoskeletal activity. There were differences in medication utilisation between countries, with hydroxychloroquine less frequently, and calcineurin inhibitors more frequently, used in Japan. More patients taking leflunomide, methotrexate, chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine, azathioprine, and mycophenolate mofetil/mycophenolic acid were taking ≤ 7.5 mg/day of prednisolone (compared to > 7.5 mg/day) suggesting a steroid-sparing effect. Patients taking tacrolimus were more likely (Odds Ratio [95% Confidence Interval] 13.58 [2.23-82.78], p = 0.005) to attain LLDAS. Patients taking azathioprine (OR 0.67 [0.53-0.86], p = 0.001) and methotrexate (OR 0.68 [0.47-0.98], p = 0.038) were less likely to attain LLDAS. Patients taking mycophenolate mofetil were less likely to experience a flare (OR 0.79 [0.64-0.97], p = 0.025). None of the drugs was associated with a reduction in damage accrual. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests a steroid-sparing benefit for most commonly used standard of care immunosuppressants used in SLE treatment, some of which were associated with an increased likelihood of attaining LLDAS, or reduced incidence of flares. It also highlights the unmet need for effective treatments in lupus.

Impact of low disease activity, remission, and complete remission on flares following tapering of corticosteroids and immunosuppressive therapy in patients with systemic lupus erythematous: a multinational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Targets of treatment for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) include the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS), remission, and complete remission. Whether treatment can be tapered after attaining these targets and whether tapering is safer in patients in complete remission compared with LLDAS are unknown. We aimed to assess the odds of disease flares after treatment tapering in stable disease, versus continuing the same therapy. We also aimed to examine whether tapering in complete remission resulted in fewer flares or longer time to flare compared with tapering in LLDAS or remission. METHODS: This multinational cohort study was conducted at 25 sites across 13 Asia-Pacific countries. We included adult patients aged 18 years or older with stable SLE who were receiving routine clinical care, had two or more visits and had attained stable disease at one or more visits. We categorised stable disease into: LLDAS (Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 [SLEDAI-2K] score ≤4, Physician Global Assessment [PGA] ≤1, and prednisolone ≤7·5 mg/day); Definitions of Remission in SLE (DORIS) remission (clinical SLEDAI-2K score 0, PGA <0·5, and prednisolone ≤5 mg/day); or complete remission on therapy (SLEDAI-2K score 0, PGA <0·5, and prednisolone ≤5 mg/day). Stable disease categories were mutually exclusive. Tapering was defined as any decrease in dose of corticosteroids or immunosuppressive therapy (mycophenolate mofetil, calcineurin inhibitors, azathioprine, leflunomide, or methotrexate). Using multivariable generalised estimating equations, we compared flares (SELENA-SLEDAI Flare Index) at the subsequent visit after drug tapering. We used generalised estimating equations and Cox proportional hazard models to compare tapering attempts that had begun in LLDAS, remission, and complete remission. FINDINGS: Between May 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2020, 4106 patients were recruited to the cohort, 3002 (73·1%) of whom were included in our analysis. 2769 (92·2%) participants were female, 233 (7·8%) were male, and 2636 (88·1%) of 2993 with ethnicity data available were Asian. The median age was 39·5 years (IQR 29·0-50·0). There were 14 808 patient visits for patients in LLDAS, or remission or complete remission, of which 13 140 (88·7%) entered the final multivariable model after excluding missing data. Among the 9863 visits at which patients continued the same therapy, 1121 (11·4%) flared at the next visit, of which 221 (19·7%) were severe flares. Of the 3277 visits at which a patient received a tapering of therapy, 557 (17·0%) flared at the next visit, of which 120 (21·5%) were severe flares. Tapering was associated with higher odds of flare compared with continuing the same therapy (odds ratio [OR] 1·24 [95% CI 1·10-1·39]; p=0·0005). Of 2095 continuous tapering attempts, 860 (41·1%) were initiated in LLDAS, 596 (28·4%) in remission, and 639 (30·5%) in complete remission. Tapering initiated in LLDAS (OR 1·37 [95% CI 1·03-1·81]; p=0·029) or remission (1·45 [1·08-1·94]; p=0·013) had higher odds of flare in 1 year compared with complete remission. Tapering in LLDAS (hazard ratio 1·24 [95% CI 1·04-1·48]; p=0·016) or remission (1·30 [1·08-1·56]; p=0·0054) had a significantly shorter time to first flare than tapering initiated in complete remission. Attaining sustained LLDAS, remission, or complete remission for at least 6 months just before the time of taper was associated with lower odds of flare at next visit, flares in 1 year, and longer time to flare. INTERPRETATION: Tapering of corticosteroids or immunosuppressive therapy in patients with stable SLE was associated with excess flares. Our findings suggest that drug tapering should be carefully considered, weighing the risks and benefits, and is best exercised in complete (clinical and serological) remission and after maintaining stable disease for at least 6 months. FUNDING: AstraZeneca, BMS, Eli Lily, Janssen, Merck Serono, GSK, and UCB.

Seroprevalence and longevity of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen-IgG among health care workers in a large COVID-19 public hospital in Saudi Arabia: A prospective cohort study.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG among health care workers (HCWs) is crucial to inform infection control programs. Conflicting reports have emerged on the longevity of SARS-CoV-2 IgG. Our objective is to describe the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG in HCWs and perform 8 months longitudinal follow-up (FU) to assess the duration of detectable IgG. In addition, we aim to explore the risk factors associated with positive SARS-CoV-2 IgG. The study was conducted at a large COVID-19 public hospital in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. All HCWs were recruited by social media platform. The SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen was used. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine association between IgG seropositive status and clinical and epidemiological factors. A total of 2528 (33% of the 7737 eligible HCWs) participated in the survey and 2523 underwent baseline serological testing in June 2020. The largest occupation groups sampled were nurses [n = 1351(18%)], physicians [n = 456 (6%)], administrators [n = 277 (3.6%)], allied HCWs [n = 205(3%)], pharmacists [n = 95(1.2%)], respiratory therapists [n = 40(0.5%)], infection control staff [n = 21(0.27%], and others [n = 83 (1%)]. The total cohort median age was 36 (31-43) years and 66.3% were females. 273 were IgG seropositive at baseline with a seroprevalence of 10.8% 95% CI (9.6%-12.1%). 165/185 and 44/112 were persistently IgG positive, at 2-3 months and 6 months FU respectively. The median (25th- 75th percentile) IgG level at the 3 different time points was 5.86 (3.57-7.04), 3.91 (2.46-5.38), 2.52 (1.80-3.99) respectively. Respiratory therapists OR 2.38, (P = 0.035), and those with hypertension OR = 1.86, (P = 0.009) were more likely to be seropositive. A high proportion of seropositive staff had prior symptoms 214/273(78%), prior anosmia was associated with the presence of antibodies, with an odds ratio of 9.25 (P<0.001), as well as fever and cough. Being a non-smoker, non-Saudi, and previously diagnosed with COVID-19 infection by PCR were statistically significantly different by seroprevalence status. We found that the seroprevalence of IgG against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen was 10.8% in HCWs at the peak of the pandemic in Saudi Arabia. We also observed a decreasing temporal trend of IgG seropositivity over 8 months follow up period.

Performance of the 2017 EUSTAR activity index in an scleroderma cohort.

Assessment of disease activity in systemic sclerosis (SSc) is limited by the absence of a fully validated, multisystem measure of disease activity. The European Scleroderma Trials and Research Group (EUSTAR) SSc activity index (EScSG-AI) was recently revised, and a validation study within the EUSTAR cohort was performed. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the revised EScSG-AI in an external Australian cohort. The association between the EScSG-AI and the physician global assessment of disease activity (PhGA), both collected prospectively at each annual visit over up to 12 years follow-up, was evaluated using Pearson's correlation coefficient and Cohen's kappa coefficient. Generalized linear modelling and time-dependent Cox regression analysis were performed to determine the association of disease activity measured by the EScSG-AI and the summed Medsger Severity Scale (MSS) and death, respectively. There was a moderate correlation between EScSG-AI and PhGA scores (r 0.42, p < 0.001) and moderate association between rising EScSG-AI and summed MSS (r 0.60, p < 0.001). High disease activity, measured by the EScSG-AI at any time during follow-up, was associated with a hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.51-2.79) for mortality. The EScSG-AI has a moderate correlation with physician-assessed SSc disease activity. This suggests that the criterion and construct validity of the EScSG-AI are yet to be demonstrated in an external cohort of SSc patients. Key Points •There remains no gold standard measure of SSc disease activity. •The revised 2017 EUSTAR SSc disease activity index shows moderate correlation with physician-rated global disease activity. •Significant work remains to develop a validated multisystem measure of disease activity in SSc.

Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes of Cancer in Systemic Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the burden of cancer in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and standardized mortality ratios relative to the general Australian population were derived. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate survival in patients with SSc with cancer compared to patients without. Determinants of cancer were identified using logistic regression. Health care cost was quantified through cross-jurisdictional data linkage. RESULTS: This SSc cohort of 1,727 had a cancer incidence of 1.3% per year and a prevalence of 14.2%, with a SIR of 2.15 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.84-2.49). The most common cancers were breast, melanoma, hematologic, and lung. Anti-RNA polymerase III (RNAP) antibody was associated with an increased risk of cancer (odds ratio [OR] 2.9, P = 0.044), diagnosed within 5 years of SSc disease onset. Calcium channel blockers were associated with a higher risk of overall cancer (OR 1.47, P = 0.016), breast cancer (OR 1.61, P = 0.051), and melanoma (OR 2.01, P = 0.042). Interstitial lung disease (ILD) was associated with lung cancer (OR 2.83, P = 0.031). Incident SSc cancer patients had >2-fold increased mortality compared to patients with SSc without cancer (hazard ratio 2.85 [95% CI 1.51-5.37], P = 0.001). Patients with SSc and cancer utilized more health care than those without cancer, with an excess annual health care cost of $1,496 Australian (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: SSc carries an increased risk of developing cancer, particularly lung cancer associated with ILD, and breast cancer and melanoma occurring close to SSc disease onset in association with RNAP antibodies. Compared to those patients without cancer, patients with SSc and cancer had higher mortality and an increased health care cost, with an annual excess per patient cost of $1,496 Australian (P < 0.001).