Development and validation of a prognostic prediction model for patients with stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer incorporating high-risk pathological features / 中华外科杂志

Objective: To examine a predictive model that incorporating high risk pathological factors for the prognosis of stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer. Methods: This study retrospectively collected clinicopathological information and survival outcomes of stage Ⅰ~Ⅲ colon cancer patients who underwent curative surgery in 7 tertiary hospitals in China from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017. A total of 1 650 patients were enrolled, aged (M(IQR)) 62 (18) years (range: 14 to 100). There were 963 males and 687 females. The median follow-up period was 51 months. The Cox proportional hazardous regression model was utilized to select high-risk pathological factors, establish the nomogram and scoring system. The Bootstrap resampling method was utilized for internal validation of the model, the concordance index (C-index) was used to assess discrimination and calibration curves were presented to assess model calibration. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot survival curves after risk grouping, and Cox regression was used to compare disease-free survival between subgroups. Results: Age (HR=1.020, 95%CI: 1.008 to 1.033, P=0.001), T stage (T3:HR=1.995,95%CI:1.062 to 3.750,P=0.032;T4:HR=4.196, 95%CI: 2.188 to 8.045, P<0.01), N stage (N1: HR=1.834, 95%CI: 1.307 to 2.574, P<0.01; N2: HR=3.970, 95%CI: 2.724 to 5.787, P<0.01) and number of lymph nodes examined (≥36: HR=0.438, 95%CI: 0.242 to 0.790, P=0.006) were independently associated with disease-free survival. The C-index of the scoring model (model 1) based on age, T stage, N stage, and dichotomous variables of the lymph nodes examined (<12 and ≥12) was 0.723, and the C-index of the scoring model (model 2) based on age, T stage, N stage, and multi-categorical variables of the lymph nodes examined (<12, 12 to <24, 24 to <36, and ≥36) was 0.726. A scoring system was established based on age, T stage, N stage, and multi-categorical variables of lymph nodes examined, the 3-year DFS of the low-risk (≤1), middle-risk (2 to 4) and high-risk (≥5) group were 96.3% (n=711), 89.0% (n=626) and 71.4% (n=313), respectively. Statistically significant difference was observed among groups (P<0.01). Conclusions: The number of lymph nodes examined was an independent prognostic factor for disease-free survival after curative surgery in patients with stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer. Incorporating the number of lymph nodes examined as a multi-categorical variable into the T and N staging system could improve prognostic predictive validity.

Predictive value of MRI pelvic measurements for "difficult pelvis" during total mesorectal excision / 中华胃肠外科杂志

Objective: Total mesorectal resection (TME) is difficult to perform for rectal cancer patients with anatomical confines of the pelvis or thick mesorectal fat. This study aimed to evaluate the ability of pelvic dimensions to predict the difficulty of TME, and establish a nomogram for predicting its difficulty. Methods: The inclusion criteria for this retrospective study were as follows: (1) tumor within 15 cm of the anal verge; (2) rectal cancer confirmed by preoperative pathological examination; (3) adequate preoperative MRI data; (4) depth of tumor invasion T1-4a; and (5) grade of surgical difficulty available. Patients who had undergone non-TME surgery were excluded. A total of 88 patients with rectal cancer who underwent TME between March 2019 and November 2021 were eligible for this study. The system for scaling difficulty was as follows: Grade I, easy procedure, no difficulties; Grade II, difficult procedure, but no impact on specimen quality (complete TME); Grade III, difficult procedure, with a slight impact on specimen quality (near-complete TME); Grade IV: very difficult procedure, with remarkable impact on specimen quality (incomplete TME). We classified Grades I-II as no surgical difficulty and grades III-IV as surgical difficulty. Pelvic parameters included pelvic inlet length, anteroposterior length of the mid-pelvis, pelvic outlet length, pubic tubercle height, sacral length, sacral depth, distance from the pubis to the pelvic floor, anterior pelvic depth, interspinous distance, and inter-tuberosity distance. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the factors associated with the difficulty of TME, and a nomogram predicting the difficulty of the procedure was established. Results: The study cohort comprised 88 patients, 30 (34.1%) of whom were classified as having undergone difficult procedures and 58 (65.9%) non-difficult procedures. The median age was 64 years (56-70), 51 patients were male and 64 received neoadjuvant therapy. The median pelvic inlet length, anteroposterior length of the mid-pelvis, pelvic outlet length, pubic tubercle height, sacral length, sacral depth, distance from the pubis to the pelvic floor, anterior pelvic depth, interspinous distance, and inter-tuberosity distance were 12.0 cm, 11.0 cm, 8.6 cm, 4.9 cm, 12.6 cm, 3.7 cm, 3.0 cm, 13.3 cm, 10.2 cm, and 12.2 cm, respectively. Multivariable analyses showed that preoperative chemoradiotherapy (OR=4.97,95% CI: 1.25-19.71, P=0.023), distance between the tumor and the anal verge (OR=1.31, 95% CI: 1.02-1.67, P=0.035) and pubic tubercle height (OR=3.36, 95% CI: 1.56-7.25, P=0.002) were associated with surgical difficulty. We then built and validated a predictive nomogram based on the above three variables (AUC = 0.795, 95%CI: 0.696-0.895). Conclusion: Our research demonstrated that our system for scaling surgical difficulty of TME is useful and practical. Preoperative chemoradiotherapy, distance between tumor and anal verge, and pubic tubercle height are risk factors for surgical difficulty. These data may aid surgeons in planning appropriate surgical procedures.

A case of human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H7N9) virus through poultry processing without protection measure / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To investigate the infection pattern and etiological characteristics of a case of human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H7N9) virus and provide evidence for the prevention and control of human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus. Methods: Epidemiological investigation was conducted to explore the case's exposure history, infection route and disease progression. Samples collected from the patient, environments and poultry were tested by using real time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Virus isolation, genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were conducted for positive samples. Results: The case had no live poultry contact history, but had a history of pulled chicken processing without taking protection measure in an unventilated kitchen before the onset. Samples collected from the patient's lower respiratory tract, the remaining frozen chicken meat and the live poultry market were all influenza A (H7N9) virus positive. The isolated viruses from these positive samples were highly homogenous. An insertion which lead to the addition of multiple basic amino acid residues (PEVPKRKRTAR/GL) was found at the HA cleavage site, suggesting that this virus might be highly pathogenic. Conclusions: Live poultry processing without protection measure is an important infection mode of "poultry to human" transmission of avian influenza viruses. Due to the limitation of protection measures in live poultry markets in Guangzhou, it is necessary to promote the standardized large scale poultry farming, the complete restriction of live poultry sales and centralized poultry slaughtering as well as ice fresh sale.

Survey on a norovirus-borne outbreak caused by GⅡ.4 Sydney 2012 variant in a university of Guangzhou, 2017 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To understand the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of a norovirus- borne outbreak caused by GⅡ.4 Sydney 2012 in a university of Guangzhou to provide evidence for the prevention and control strategy on norovirus-caused epidemics. Methods: A self-designed questionnaire was used to collect clinical information from the patients as well as other data related to the epidemic. Pathogen detections were performed through anal swab specimens from the patients, kitchen workers and samples from the environment. Positive samples were further sequenced for phylogenetic analysis. A case-control study was employed to identify the risk factors related to this outbreak. Results: A total of 226 cases of norovirus-borne infection were identified between September 17 and 21, 2017, including 223 students, with an attack rate of 0.73% (223/30 711), and 3 kitchen workers. Students staying in the A dormitory area had the highest attack rate (1.73%, 164/9 459). No clustering was found in different colleges or classes. Results from the case-control study revealed that people who ate at the canteen in A dormitory area during September 18 to 20 was at risk for the onset of illness (OR=10.75, 95%CI: 5.56-20.79). The highest risk was related to the dinner on September 18. Another significant risk factor (OR=3.65, 95%CI: 1.92-6.94) was close personal contact in the same room of the dorm. The 3 norovirus infected kitchen workers were all from the canteen in A dormitory area where the positive rate of norovirus identified in kitchen workers was 26.67% (12/45). Positive samples were sequenced and sub-typed with results showing that the GⅡ.4 Sydney 2012 variant and the nucleotide sequences of cases and kitchen workers were 100% identical. Conclusions: The outbreak was caused by norovirus GⅡ.4 Sydney 2012 variant at campus. Similar outbreaks had been seen since 2013, with the routes of transmission most likely due to food-borne or personal contact.

Willingness and influencing factors related to "centralized slaughtering, fresh poultry listing and marketing" strategy among the household chefs in Guangzhou / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To study the willingness and influence factors related to "centralized slaughtering, fresh poultry listing and marketing" strategy, among the household chefs, and provide reference for government to adjust and optimize the strategy on avian influenza prevention. Methods: According to the geographical characteristics and regional functions, 6 'monitoring stations' were selected from 12 residential districts of Guangzhou, respectively. Another 21 meat markets which selling live poultry, were selected in each station and 5 household chefs of each market were invited to attend a face to face interview. Basic information, personal cognitive, willingness and influencing factors to the policy were under study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods were used. Results: A total of 664 household chefs underwent the survey and results showed that the rate of support to the "centralized slaughtering, fresh poultry listing and marketing" strategy was 44.6% (296/664). Results from the multi-factor logistic regression showed that those household chefs who were males (OR=1.618, 95% CI: 1.156-2.264, P=0.005), having received higher education (OR=1.814, 95% CI: 1.296-2.539, P=0.001), or believing that the existence of live poultry stalls was related to the transmission of avian influenza (OR=1.918, 95% CI: 1.341-2.743, P<0.001) were factors at higher risk. These household chefs also intended to avoid the use of live poultry stalls (OR=1.666, 95%CI: 1.203-2.309, P=0.002) and accept the "centralized slaughtering, fresh poultry listing and marketing" strategy. Conclusion: Detailed study on this subject and, setting up pilot project in some areas as well as prioritizing the education programs for household chefs seemed helpful to the implementation of the 'freezing-fresh poultry' policy.