Chemical feedbacks weaken the wintertime response of particulate sulfate and nitrate to emissions reductions over the eastern United States.

Sulfate ([Formula: see text]) and nitrate ([Formula: see text]) account for half of the fine particulate matter mass over the eastern United States. Their wintertime concentrations have changed little in the past decade despite considerable precursor emissions reductions. The reasons for this have remained unclear because detailed observations to constrain the wintertime gas-particle chemical system have been lacking. We use extensive airborne observations over the eastern United States from the 2015 Wintertime Investigation of Transport, Emissions, and Reactivity (WINTER) campaign; ground-based observations; and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to determine the controls on winter [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] GEOS-Chem reproduces observed [Formula: see text]-[Formula: see text]-[Formula: see text] particulate concentrations (2.45 µg [Formula: see text]) and composition ([Formula: see text]: 47%; [Formula: see text]: 32%; [Formula: see text]: 21%) during WINTER. Only 18% of [Formula: see text] emissions were regionally oxidized to [Formula: see text] during WINTER, limited by low [H2O2] and [OH]. Relatively acidic fine particulates (pH∼1.3) allow 45% of nitrate to partition to the particle phase. Using GEOS-Chem, we examine the impact of the 58% decrease in winter [Formula: see text] emissions from 2007 to 2015 and find that the H2O2 limitation on [Formula: see text] oxidation weakened, which increased the fraction of [Formula: see text] emissions oxidizing to [Formula: see text] Simultaneously, NOx emissions decreased by 35%, but the modeled [Formula: see text] particle fraction increased as fine particle acidity decreased. These feedbacks resulted in a 40% decrease of modeled [[Formula: see text]] and no change in [[Formula: see text]], as observed. Wintertime [[Formula: see text]] and [[Formula: see text]] are expected to change slowly between 2015 and 2023, unless [Formula: see text] and NOx emissions decrease faster in the future than in the recent past.

Effects of Sea Salt Aerosol Emissions for Marine Cloud Brightening on Atmospheric Chemistry: Implications for Radiative Forcing.

Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is proposed to offset global warming by emitting sea salt aerosols to the tropical marine boundary layer, which increases aerosol and cloud albedo. Sea salt aerosol is the main source of tropospheric reactive chlorine (Cl y ) and bromine (Br y ). The effects of additional sea salt on atmospheric chemistry have not been explored. We simulate sea salt aerosol injections for MCB under two scenarios (212-569 Tg/a) in the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model, only considering their impacts as a halogen source. Globally, tropospheric Cl y and Br y increase (20-40%), leading to decreased ozone (-3 to -6%). Consequently, OH decreases (-3 to -5%), which increases the methane lifetime (3-6%). Our results suggest that the chemistry of the additional sea salt leads to minor total radiative forcing compared to that of the sea salt aerosol itself (~2%) but may have potential implications for surface ozone pollution in tropical coastal regions.

Formaldehyde (HCHO) As a Hazardous Air Pollutant: Mapping Surface Air Concentrations from Satellite and Inferring Cancer Risks in the United States.

Formaldehyde (HCHO) is the most important carcinogen in outdoor air among the 187 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) identified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), not including ozone and particulate matter. However, surface observations of HCHO are sparse and the EPA monitoring network could be prone to positive interferences. Here we use 2005-2016 summertime HCHO column data from the OMI satellite instrument, validated with high-quality aircraft data and oversampled on a 5 × 5 km2 grid, to map surface air HCHO concentrations across the contiguous U.S. OMI-derived summertime HCHO values are converted to annual averages using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Results are in good agreement with high-quality summertime observations from urban sites (-2% bias, r = 0.95) but a factor of 1.9 lower than annual means from the EPA network. We thus estimate that up to 6600-12 500 people in the U.S. will develop cancer over their lifetimes by exposure to outdoor HCHO. The main HCHO source in the U.S. is atmospheric oxidation of biogenic isoprene, but the corresponding HCHO yield decreases as the concentration of nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) decreases. A GEOS-Chem sensitivity simulation indicates that HCHO levels would decrease by 20-30% in the absence of U.S. anthropogenic NOx emissions. Thus, NOx emission controls to improve ozone air quality have a significant cobenefit in reducing HCHO-related cancer risks.

Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales.

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is the world's leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74-1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52-0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32-0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28-0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources.

Global high-resolution emissions of soil NOx, sea salt aerosols, and biogenic volatile organic compounds.

Natural emissions of air pollutants from the surface play major roles in air quality and climate change. In particular, nitrogen oxides (NOx) emitted from soils contribute ~15% of global NOx emissions, sea salt aerosols are a major player in the climate and chemistry of the marine atmosphere, and biogenic emissions are the dominant source of non-methane volatile organic compounds at the global scale. These natural emissions are often estimated using nonlinear parameterizations, which are sensitive to the horizontal resolutions of inputted meteorological and ancillary data. Here we use the HEMCO model to compute these emissions worldwide at horizontal resolutions of 0.5° lat. × 0.625° lon. for 1980-2017 and 0.25° lat. × 0.3125° lon. for 2014-2017. We further offer the respective emissions at lower resolutions, which can be used to evaluate the impacts of resolution on estimated global and regional emissions. Our long-term high-resolution emission datasets offer useful information to study natural pollution sources and their impacts on air quality, climate, and the carbon cycle.

Airborne Observations of Reactive Inorganic Chlorine and Bromine Species in the Exhaust of Coal-Fired Power Plants.

We present airborne observations of gaseous reactive halogen species (HCl, Cl2, ClNO2, Br2,BrNO2, and BrCl), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nonrefractory fine particulate chloride (pCl) and sulfate(pSO4) in power plant exhaust. Measurements were conducted during the Wintertime INvestigation of Transport, Emissions, and Reactivity campaign in February-March of 2015 aboard the NCAR-NSF C-130 aircraft. Fifty air mass encounters were identified in which SO2 levels were elevated ~5 ppb above ambient background levels and in proximity to operational power plants. Each encounter was attributed to one or more potential emission sources using a simple wind trajectory analysis. In case studies, we compare measured emission ratios to those reported in the 2011 National Emissions Inventory and present evidence of the conversion of HCl emitted from power plants to ClNO2. Taking into account possible chemical conversion downwind, there was general agreement between the observed and reported HCl: SO2 emission ratios. Reactive bromine species (Br2, BrNO2, and/or BrCl) were detected in the exhaust of some coal-fired power plants, likely related to the absence of wet flue gas desulfurization emission control technology. Levels of bromine species enhanced in some encounters exceeded those expected assuming all of the native bromide in coal was released to the atmosphere, though there was no reported use of bromide salts (as a way to reduce mercury emissions) during Wintertime INvestigation of Transport, Emissions, and Reactivity observations. These measurements represent the first ever in-flight observations of reactive gaseous chlorine and bromine containing compounds present in coal-fired power plant exhaust.

Multi-year composite view of ozone enhancements and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in dry intrusions of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones.

We examine the role of extratropical cyclones in stratosphere-to-troposphere (STT) exchange with cyclone-centric composites of O3 retrievals from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), contrasting them to composites obtained with the Modern-Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and MERRA-2) reanalyses and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We identify 15,978 extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere (NH) for 2005-2012. The lowermost stratosphere (261 hPa) and middle troposphere (424 hPa) composites feature a 1,000 km-wide O3 enhancement in the dry intrusion (DI) airstream to the southwest of the cyclone center, coinciding with a lowered tropopause, enhanced potential vorticity, and decreased H2O. MLS composites at 261 hPa show that the DI O3 enhancements reach a 210 ppbv maximum in April. At 424 hPa, TES composites display maximum O3 enhancements of 27 ppbv in May. The magnitude and seasonality of these enhancements are captured by MERRA and MERRA-2, but GEOS-Chem is a factor of two too low. The MERRA-2 composites show that the O3-rich DI forms a vertically aligned structure between 300 and 800 hPa, wrapping cyclonically with the warm conveyor belt. In winter and spring DIs, O3 is enhanced by 100 ppbv or 100-130% at 300 hPa, with significant enhancements below 500 hPa (6-20 ppbv or 15-30%). We estimate that extratropical cyclones result in a STT flux of 119±56 Tg O3 yr-1, accounting for 42±20 % of the NH extratropical O3 STT flux. The STT flux in cyclones displays a strong dependence on westerly 300 hPa wind speeds.

Global partitioning of NOx sources using satellite observations: relative roles of fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning and soil emissions.

We use space-based observations of NO2 columns from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) to derive monthly top-down NOx emissions for 2000 via inverse modeling with the GEOS-CHEM chemical transport model. Top-down NOx sources are partitioned among fuel combustion (fossil fuel and biofuel), biomass burning and soils by exploiting the spatio-temporal distribution of remotely sensed fires and a priori information on the location of regions dominated by fuel combustion. The top-down inventory is combined with an a priori inventory to obtain an optimized a posteriori estimate of the relative roles of NOx sources. The resulting a posteriori fuel combustion inventory (25.6 TgN year(-1)) agrees closely with the a priori (25.4 TgN year(-1)), and errors are reduced by a factor of 2, from +/- 80% to +/- 40%. Regionally, the largest differences are found over Japan and South Africa, where a posteriori estimates are 25% larger than a priori. A posteriori fuel combustion emissions are aseasonal, with the exception of East Asia and Europe where winter emissions are 30-40% larger relative to summer emissions, consistent with increased energy use during winter for heating. Global a posteriori biomass burning emissions in 2000 resulted in 5.8 TgN (compared to 5.9 TgN year(-1) in the a priori), with Africa accounting for half of this total. A posteriori biomass burning emissions over Southeast Asia/India are decreased by 46% relative to a priori; but over North equatorial Africa they are increased by 50%. A posteriori estimates of soil emissions (8.9 TgN year(-1)) are 68% larger than a priori (5.3 TgN year(-1)). The a posteriori inventory displays the largest soil emissions over tropical savanna/woodland ecosystems (Africa), as well as over agricultural regions in the western U.S. (Great Plains), southern Europe (Spain, Greece, Turkey), and Asia (North China Plain and North India), consistent with field measurements. Emissions over these regions are highest during summer at mid-latitudes and during the rainy season in the Tropics. We estimate that 2.5-4.5 TgN year(-1) are emitted from N-fertilized soils, at the upper end of previous estimates. Soil and biomass burning emissions account for 22% and 14% of global surface NOx emissions, respectively. We infer a significant role for soil NOx emissions at northern mid-latitudes during summer, where they account for nearly half that of the fuel combustion source, a doubling relative to the a priori. The contribution of soil emissions to background ozone is thus likely to be underestimated by the current generation of chemical transport models.