Bidirectional relationship between acute pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The burdens of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and acute pancreatitis are increasing globally. We reviewed current literature on whether acute pancreatitis is a causal factor for PDAC and examined clinical manifestations of PDAC-associated acute pancreatitis. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent findings detail the timing of acute pancreatitis before and after PDAC occurrence, further solidifying the evidence for PDAC-associated acute pancreatitis and for acute pancreatitis as a causal risk factor for PDAC. The risk of PDAC remains elevated above the general population in patients with distant history of acute pancreatitis. PDAC risk also increases with recurrent acute pancreatitis episodes, independent of smoking and alcohol. Mechanisms linking acute pancreatitis to PDAC include inflammation and neutrophil infiltration, which can be attenuated by suppressing inflammation and/or epigenetic modulation, thus slowing the progression of acinar-to-ductal metaplasia. Clinical presentation and management of acute pancreatitis in the context of PDAC are discussed, including challenges acute pancreatitis poses in the diagnosis and treatment of PDAC, and novel interventions for PDAC-associated acute pancreatitis. SUMMARY: PDAC risk may be reduced with improved acute pancreatitis prevention and treatment, such as antiinflammatories or epigenetic modulators. Increased acute pancreatitis and PDAC burden warrant more research on better diagnosis and management of PDAC-associated acute pancreatitis.

Urine biomarkers enable pancreatic cancer detection up to 2 years before diagnosis.

The poor prognosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is mainly attributed to late diagnosis. We assessed the predictive performance of our previously reported urine biomarker panel for earlier detection of PDAC (LYVE1, REG1B and TFF1) in prediagnostic samples, alone and in combination with plasma CA19-9. This nested case-control study included 99 PDAC cases with urine samples prospectively collected up to 5 years prior to PDAC diagnosis and 198 matched controls. The samples were obtained from the Shanghai Women's Health Study (SWHS), the Shanghai Men's Health Studies (SMHS) and the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS). The urine biomarkers were measured by ELISA. Plasma CA19-9 was quantified by Luminex. Multiple logistic regression and Wilcoxon rank-sum and Mann-Whitney test were used for analysis. The internal validation approach was applied and the validated AUC estimators are reported on. The algorithm of urinary protein panel, urine creatinine and age named PancRISK, displayed similar AUC as CA19-9 up to 1 year before PDAC diagnosis (AUC = 0.79); however, the combination enhanced the AUCs to 0.89, and showed good discriminative ability (AUC = 0.77) up to 2 years. The combination showed sensitivity (SN) of 72% at 90% specificity (SP), and SP of 59% at 90% SN up to 1 year and 60% SN with 80% SP and 53% SP with 80% SN up to 2 years before PDAC diagnosis. Adding the clinical information on BMI value resulted in the overall improvement in performance of the PancRISK score. When combined with CA19-9, the urinary panel reached a workable model for detecting PDAC cases up to 2 years prior to diagnosis.

Derivation and External Validation of Machine Learning-Based Model for Detection of Pancreatic Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: There is currently no widely accepted approach to screening for pancreatic cancer (PC). We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), the most common form of PC, across 2 health systems using electronic health records. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study consisted of patients aged 50-84 years having at least 1 clinic-based visit over a 10-year study period at Kaiser Permanente Southern California (model training, internal validation) and the Veterans Affairs (VA, external testing). Random survival forests models were built to identify the most relevant predictors from >500 variables and to predict risk of PDAC within 18 months of cohort entry. RESULTS: The Kaiser Permanente Southern California cohort consisted of 1.8 million patients (mean age 61.6) with 1,792 PDAC cases. The 18-month incidence rate of PDAC was 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.73-0.80)/1,000 person-years. The final main model contained age, abdominal pain, weight change, HbA1c, and alanine transaminase change (c-index: mean = 0.77, SD = 0.02; calibration test: P value 0.4, SD 0.3). The final early detection model comprised the same features as those selected by the main model except for abdominal pain (c-index: 0.77 and SD 0.4; calibration test: P value 0.3 and SD 0.3). The VA testing cohort consisted of 2.7 million patients (mean age 66.1) with an 18-month incidence rate of 1.27 (1.23-1.30)/1,000 person-years. The recalibrated main and early detection models based on VA testing data sets achieved a mean c-index of 0.71 (SD 0.002) and 0.68 (SD 0.003), respectively. DISCUSSION: Using widely available parameters in electronic health records, we developed and externally validated parsimonious machine learning-based models for detection of PC. These models may be suitable for real-time clinical application.

Female patients delay seeking medical care with alcohol-associated acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Alcohol consumption is increasing in women, who more frequently report abdominal symptoms compared to men. We aimed to examine differences in presentation of acute pancreatitis [AP] in male and female patients hospitalized with alcohol-associated AP. METHODS: We analyzed 138 patients enrolled in an ongoing case-crossover study of alcohol-associated AP conducted across 5 medical centers in the U.S. Patients meeting the Revised Atlanta Classification of AP and who scored 3 or higher on the AUDIT-C instrument were invited to participate in the study and were interviewed while hospitalized with AP. Sex differences in the timing and type of pancreas-associated pain, alcohol consumption, clinical presentation, and quality of life were examined by Chi-squared tests, Wilcoxon rank sum tests and t-tests. RESULTS: Female patients reported significantly longer interval from onset of pain to deciding to seek medical attention (median 40 h, interquartile range [IQR] 14, 74) as compared to males (14 h, IQR 4, 50; p = 0.005). While male patients were more likely to have been admitted to the intensive care unit [ICU] (21%) as compared to female patients (7%; p = 0.04), the incidence of SIRS or severe AP did not differ by sex. Quality of life measures as reported through the PROMIS-29 instrument were equally suboptimal in both sexes. Anxiety disorders were diagnosed more frequently among females (61%) than in males (41%, p = 0.009). CONCLUSION: In a large case series of alcohol-associated AP, we found that female patients delayed seeking medical care compared to males. However, there were no differences in the type, location and intensity of abdominal pain.

Machine learning versus regression for prediction of sporadic pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: There is currently no widely accepted approach to identify patients at increased risk for sporadic pancreatic cancer (PC). We aimed to compare the performance of two machine-learning models with a regression-based model in predicting pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), the most common form of PC. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study consisted of patients 50-84 years of age enrolled in either Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC, model training, internal validation) or the Veterans Affairs (VA, external testing) between 2008 and 2017. The performance of random survival forests (RSF) and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB) models were compared to that of COX proportional hazards regression (COX). Heterogeneity of the three models were assessed. RESULTS: The KPSC and the VA cohorts consisted of 1.8 and 2.7 million patients with 1792 and 4582 incident PDAC cases within 18 months, respectively. Predictors selected into all three models included age, abdominal pain, weight change, and glycated hemoglobin (A1c). Additionally, RSF selected change in alanine transaminase (ALT), whereas the XGB and COX selected the rate of change in ALT. The COX model appeared to have lower AUC (KPSC: 0.737, 95% CI 0.710-0.764; VA: 0.706, 0.699-0.714), compared to those of RSF (KPSC: 0.767, 0.744-0.791; VA: 0.731, 0.724-0.739) and XGB (KPSC: 0.779, 0.755-0.802; VA: 0.742, 0.735-0.750). Among patients with top 5% predicted risk from all three models (N = 29,663), 117 developed PDAC, of which RSF, XGB and COX captured 84 (9 unique), 87 (4 unique), 87 (19 unique) cases, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The three models complement each other, but each has unique contributions.

Lifetime smoking history and cohort-based smoking prevalence in chronic pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Smoking prevalence in patients with chronic pancreatitis [CP] is high. We aimed to understand lifetime history of smoking and cohort trends in CP patients to inform effective strategies for smoking cessation. METHOD: Data on 317 CP patients from the North American Pancreatitis Study 2 [NAPS2] Continuation and Validation Study and the NAPS2 Ancillary Study were analyzed. Smoking history was assessed for each phase of life from the onset of smoking to study enrollment. Data on second-hand smoke and drinking history were also collected. We compared demographic factors, drinking history, pain level and pancreas morphology by smoking status at age 25 (non-smoking, <1 pack per day [PPD], ≥1 PPD). We compared smoking prevalence by birth cohorts: 1930-1949, 1950-1969, 1970-1989. RESULT: Fifty-one percent of CP patients reported smoking at the time of enrollment. Those who smoked ≥1 PPD at age 25 smoked a cumulative total of 30.3 pack-years of cigarettes over a lifetime. Smoking at age 25 was associated with greater lifetime drinking and greater exposure to second-hand smoke at home and at workplace. Pancreatic atrophy and pseudocysts were more common among smokers. Pancreatic pain was more severe among smokers, and 12-13% of smokers reported smoking to alleviate pain. Male CP patients born in 1950-1969 reported the highest peak prevalence of smoking, and female CP patients born in 1970-1989 reported highest peak prevalence of smoking. CONCLUSION: CP patients exhibit intense and sustained smoking behavior once established in the 20s. Regardless, cohort analyses demonstrate that the behaviors could potentially be altered by policy changes.

A Case-CrossovEr study deSign to inform tailored interventions to prevent disease progression in Acute Pancreatitis (ACCESS-AP) - study design and population.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Alcohol is the most common etiology of recurrent acute pancreatitis and chronic pancreatitis. The extent and timing of drinking that increases the transient risk of acute pancreatitis is yet unknown. METHODS: We designed a case-crossover study to determine the effective hazard period of drinking in relation to episodes of pancreatitis. We aim to evaluate the dose-response relationship between excess drinking and pancreatitis comparing the extent of drinking during case and control periods from the same individual. We aim to recruit 160 patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis, whose AUDIT-C score reaches 3 or higher. Interviews of each enrolled patient to define their 15-day history of alcohol consumption employing the timeline follow-back method. Long-term drinking and smoking will be investigated as modifiers of the impact of short-term excess drinking. Patients are followed-up for evaluation of usual alcohol consumption during asymptomatic periods following the index hospitalization. Blood and urine specimens are collected while the patients are hospitalized and during a standard-of-care follow-up visit. RESULTS: We have recruited 31 patients to date, with a median age of 33 years. Females and non-White participants make up 26% and 35% of the enrolled population, respectively. Forty-eight % of patients have had a prior history of acute pancreatitis. CONCLUSIONS: Our study will shed light on the impact of short-term changes in drinking on triggering acute pancreatitis. It will provide data on other covarying factors of drinking and behaviors changes after acute pancreatitis.

New-Onset Diabetes, Longitudinal Trends in Metabolic Markers, and Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in a Heterogeneous Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Observational studies of predominantly white populations have found new-onset diabetes to be associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer. We sought to determine whether this relationship applies to other races or ethnicities and to identify metabolic profiles associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study of Asian, black, Hispanic and white patients from Kaiser Permanente Southern California from 2006 through 2016 (n = 1,499,627). Patients with diabetes were identified based on glucose and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) measurements. We used Cox regression to assess the relationship between diabetes status and duration and pancreatic cancer. For patients with recent diagnoses of diabetes (1 year or less) we compared longitudinal changes in glucose, HbA1c, and weight, from time of diabetes diagnosis through 3 years prior to the diagnosis, in patients with vs without pancreatic cancer. RESULTS: We identified 2,002 incident cases of pancreatic cancer from nearly 7.5 million person-years of follow-up. Compared to patients without diabetes, individuals who received a recent diagnosis of diabetes had an almost 7-fold increase in risk of pancreatic cancer (relative risk, 6.91; 95% CI, 5.76-8.30). Among patients with a recent diagnosis of diabetes, those who developed pancreatic cancer had more rapid increases in levels of glucose (Δslope: cases, 37.47 mg/dL vs non-cases, 27.68 mg/dL) and HbA1c (Δslope: cases, 1.39% vs non-cases, 0.86%) in the month preceding the diagnosis of diabetes, and subtle weight loss in the prior years (slope: cases -0.18 kg/interval vs non-cases 0.33 kg/interval). These longitudinal changes in markers of metabolism were stronger for specific race and ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: In a study of a large ethnically diverse population, we found risk of pancreatic cancer to be increased among patients with a diagnosis of diabetes in the past year among different races and ethnicities. Weight loss and rapid development of poor glycemic control were associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer in multiple races.

Divergent trends in lifetime drinking and smoking between Black and White Americans diagnosed with chronic pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Black Americans are at increased risk of chronic pancreatitis (CP) compared to their White counterparts. We aimed to describe the race-specific smoking history and lifetime drinking in patients diagnosed with CP. METHODS: We analyzed data on 334 Black and White CP participants of the North American Pancreatitis Study 2 Continuation and Validation Study and Ancillary Study. Lifetime drinking history and lifetime smoking history were collected through in-person interviews. Intensity, frequency, duration and current status of drinking and smoking were compared between Black and White CP participants, stratified by physician-defined alcohol etiology. In addition, drinking levels at each successive decades in life (20s, 30s, 40s) were compared by race and graphically portrayed as heat diagrams. RESULTS: Among patients with alcoholic CP, current smoking levels were not different by race (67-70%), but a smaller proportion of Black patients reported having smoked 1 or more packs per day in the past (32%) as compared to White patients (58%, p < 0.0001). Black patients were more likely to report current consumption of alcohol (31%), as opposed to White patients (17%, p = 0.016). Black patients also reported more intense drinking at age 35 and 45 years as compared to White patients, while age at CP onset were similar between the two groups. CONCLUSION: We found more intense drinking but less intense smoking history in Black CP patients as compared to White CP patients. Effective alcohol abstinence and smoking cessation program with sustained impact are needed in CP patients.

Lifetime Drinking History of Persons With Chronic Pancreatitis.

AIMS: Cumulative consumption of alcohol and variations of alcohol intake by age are unknown in chronic pancreatitis (CP) patients in North America. This study summarizes the lifetime drinking history (LDH) by physician attribution of alcohol etiology, smoking status and sex in persons with CP. METHODS: We analyzed data on 193 CP participants who completed the LDH questionnaire in the North American Pancreatitis Continuation and Validation Study (NAPS2-CV). We collected data on frequency of drinking and drinks per drinking day for each drinking phase of their lives. We examined differences in total number of alcoholic drinks and weight of ethanol consumed by physician's assessment of CP etiology, sex and smoking status. We also compared intensity of drinking in 20, 30 and 40s by timing of CP diagnosis. RESULTS: Persons diagnosed with alcoholic CP consumed median of 34,488 drinks (interquartile range 18,240-75,024) prior to diagnosis of CP, which occurred earlier than in persons with CP of other etiology (47 vs. 52 years). Cumulative drinking was greater in male vs. female patients. Male CP patients with a diagnosis of CP before the age of 45 drank more intensely in their 20s as compared to those with later onset of disease. Current smoking was prevalent (67%) among those diagnosed with alcoholic CP. Twenty-eight percent of patients without physician attribution of alcohol etiology reported drinking heavily in the past. CONCLUSIONS: Lifetime cumulative consumption of alcohol and prevalence of current smoking are high in persons diagnosed with alcoholic pancreatitis. Intense drinking in early years is associated with earlier manifestation of the disease.

Eight weeks of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir is effective for selected patients with genotype 1 hepatitis C virus infection.

Eight weeks duration of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir (LDV/SOF) can be considered in genotype 1 hepatitis C virus-infected patients who are treatment-naive, do not have cirrhosis, and have a pretreatment viral load <6,000,000 IU/mL. The effectiveness of this regimen, however, has not been fully confirmed by real-world experience. Using data from real-world cohorts, we aimed to determine the effectiveness of 8 weeks of LDV/SOF treatment, examine variables associated with relapse after treatment with this regimen, and compare the effectiveness of 8 weeks and 12 weeks of LDV/SOF treatment. To evaluate the effectiveness of 8 weeks of therapy and characteristics associated with relapse, we used individual patient data from the IFI (Institut für Interdisziplinäre Medizin), Burman's Pharmacy, and Kaiser Permanente Southern California. All patients had fibrosis staging assessed with biopsy, transient elastography, or serum biomarkers. We also performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of six additional real-world cohorts, to compare effectiveness of 8 weeks to 12 weeks duration. In our pooled data analysis, 634 patients were treated for 8 weeks with LDV/SOF, of whom all had outcomes of cure or relapse without loss to follow-up. Per protocol rates of sustained virologic response at 12 weeks were 98.1% (622/634) in the full cohort and 97.9% (571/583) among treatment-eligible patients. Exact logistic regression revealed no specific patient characteristics associated with relapse. Our meta-analysis of six additional real-world cohorts, comprised of 5,637 patients, demonstrated similar risk for relapse between 8 weeks and 12 weeks of LDV/SOF (relative risk = 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.98-1.00). CONCLUSION: An 8-week duration of treatment with LDV/SOF is highly effective in properly selected patients; greater use of this regimen is recommended. (Hepatology 2017;65:1094-1103).

Statin treatment is associated with survival in a nationally representative population of elderly women with epithelial ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Observational studies suggest that statin therapy for cardio-protection is associated with improved survival in cancer patients. We sought to evaluate the impact of statin treatment on ovarian cancer survival in a nationally representative elderly population. METHODS: The linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries and Medicare claims data on patients diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer in 2007-2009 were used to extract data on statin prescription fills, population characteristics, primary treatment, comorbidity and survival. Cox regression models were used to examine the association between statin treatment and overall survival. RESULTS: Among the 1431 ovarian cancer patients who underwent surgical resection, 609 (42.6%) filled prescriptions for statin. The majority of statin-users (89%) were prescribed a lipophilic formulation. Mean overall survival among statin-users was 32.3months compared to 28.8months for non-users (p<0.0001). A 34% reduction in death was associated with statin therapy, independent of age, race, neighborhood median household income, stage, platinum therapy and comorbid conditions (HR=0.66, 95% CI 0.55-0.81). Improved overall survival with statin use was observed for both serous (HR=0.69, 95% CI 0.54-0.87) and non-serous (HR=0.63, 95% CI 0.44-0.90) histologies. When statin treatment was categorized by lipophilicity and intensity, a significant survival benefit was limited to lipophilic statin users and those who took statins of moderate intensity. CONCLUSIONS: This SEER-Medicare analysis demonstrates improvement in overall survival with lipophilic statin use after surgery in elderly patients with epithelial ovarian cancer. A clinical trial to evaluate the impact of statin treatment in ovarian cancer survival is warranted.

Impact of statin use on survival in patients undergoing resection for early-stage pancreatic cancer.

OBJECTIVES: It has been suggested that statins exert potential anti-tumor effects. The relationship between statin use and outcomes in pancreatic cancer is controversial. We hypothesized that statin use at baseline would impact survival among patients with early-stage pancreatic cancer and that the effect might vary by individual statin agent. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study on data from an integrated healthcare system. We included patients with pancreatic cancer stage I-IIb who underwent resection for curative intent between January 2005 and January 2011. Baseline statin use was characterized as any prior use as well as active use of either simvastatin or lovastatin. Intensity of exposure was calculated as average daily dose prior to surgery. Overall and disease-free survival was assessed from surgery until the end of study (April 2014). We used the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate the impact of baseline statin use on survival, adjusting for age, sex, Charlson comorbidity score, resection margin, disease stage, and receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy. RESULTS: Among 226 patients, 71 (31.4%) had prior simvastatin use and 27 (11.9%) had prior lovastatin use at baseline. Prior simvastatin but not lovastatin use was associated with improved survival (median 28.5 months (95% confidence limit (CL) 20.8, 38.4) for simvastatin vs. 12.9 months (9.6, 15.5) for lovastatin vs. 16.5 months (14.1, 18.9) for non-statin users; log-rank P=0.0035). In Cox regression, active simvastatin use was independently associated with reduced risk for mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.56 (95% CL 0.38, 0.83), P=0.004) and risk for recurrence (adjusted HR 0.61 (0.41, 0.89), P=0.01). Survival improved significantly among patients who received moderate-high-intensity (median 42.1 months (24.0,52.7)) doses compared with those who received low-intensity doses of simvastatin (median 14.1 months (8.6, 23.8), log-rank P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: The effects of statins varied by agent and dose. Active use of moderate-high-dose simvastatin at baseline was associated with improved overall and disease-free survival among patients undergoing resection for pancreatic cancer.

Statin use and survival in elderly patients with endometrial cancer.

BACKGROUND: Endometrial cancer is the most common gynecologic cancer in the United States. Statins have demonstrated anti-cancer effects in other tumor types, such as the breast and lung cancers. AIM: The objective of our study was to determine the association between statin use and endometrial cancer survival in a nationally-representative elderly population with endometrial cancer in the U.S. METHODS: We employed the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results registries and Medicare claims files to collect data from 2987 patients who were diagnosed with endometrial cancer between 2007 and 2009 and who received a hysterectomy. The association between statin use and overall survival was examined using Cox regression models adjusting for follow-up time, age, race, neighborhood income, cancer stage, tumor grade, hysterectomy type, chemotherapy, radiation, impaired glucose tolerance, obesity, dyslipidemia and diabetes. RESULTS: The mortality rate was lower in statin users compared to non-users for both type I (4.6 vs. 5.7 deaths/100 person-years, p=0.08) and type II (11.2 vs. 16.5 deaths/100 person-years, p=0.01) cancer types. However, after adjustment for the time from surgery to statin use and confounding, statin use after a hysterectomy was not significantly associated with a reduction in hazard of death for both type I (hazard ratio [HR] 0.92, 95%CI 0.70,1.2) and type II (HR=0.92, 95%CI 0.65, 1.29, p=0.62) endometrial cancer patients. CONCLUSION: Accounting for all confounders and biases considered, statin use on or after a hysterectomy was not associated with survival in those with type I or type II disease.

Stomach Cancer Prediction Model (SCoPM): An approach to risk stratification in a diverse U.S. population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Population-based screening for gastric cancer (GC) in low prevalence nations is not recommended. The objective of this study was to develop a risk-prediction model to identify high-risk patients who could potentially benefit from targeted screening in a racial/ethnically diverse regional US population. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study from Kaiser Permanente Southern California from January 2008-June 2018 among individuals age ≥50 years. Patients with prior GC or follow-up <30 days were excluded. Censoring occurred at GC, death, age 85 years, disenrollment, end of 5-year follow-up, or study conclusion. Cross-validated LASSO regression models were developed to identify the strongest of 20 candidate predictors (clinical, demographic, and laboratory parameters). Records from 12 of the medical service areas were used for training/initial validation while records from a separate medical service area were used for testing. RESULTS: 1,844,643 individuals formed the study cohort (1,555,392 training and validation, 289,251 testing). Mean age was 61.9 years with 53.3% female. GC incidence was 2.1 (95% CI 2.0-2.2) cases per 10,000 person-years (pyr). Higher incidence was seen with family history: 4.8/10,000 pyr, history of gastric ulcer: 5.3/10,000 pyr, H. pylori: 3.6/10,000 pyr and anemia: 5.3/10,000 pyr. The final model included age, gender, race/ethnicity, smoking, proton-pump inhibitor, family history of gastric cancer, history of gastric ulcer, H. pylori infection, and baseline hemoglobin. The means and standard deviations (SD) of c-index in validation and testing datasets were 0.75 (SD 0.03) and 0.76 (SD 0.02), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This prediction model may serve as an aid for pre-endoscopic assessment of GC risk for identification of a high-risk population that could benefit from targeted screening.

Early Hypophosphatemia as a Prognostic Marker in Acute Pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a complex disease representing a significant portion of gastrointestinal-related hospitalizations in the U.S. Understanding risk factors of AP might provide attractive therapeutic targets. We evaluated hypophosphatemia as a risk factor for worse outcomes in AP. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of electronic health records of patients with AP admissions from 01/01/2012-12/31/2021 at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, evaluating patients with serum phosphate measured within 48 hours of admission. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was employed to evaluate associations with ICU admission, AP severity, and a multivariable log-linear model was employed to examine associations with length of stay (LOS). RESULTS: Of 1,526 patients admitted for AP, 33% (499) had a serum phosphate level measured within 48 hours. Patients with hypophosphatemia were more likely to have been admitted to the ICU (AOR = 4.57; 95% CI: 2.75-7.62; P < 0.001), have a longer hospital stay (log-LOS = 0.34; SE; 0.09; 95% CI: 0.17-0.52; P < 0.001), and were more likely to have moderate or severe AP (AOR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.16-2.80; P < 0.001) compared to those without hypophosphatemia. CONCLUSION: Serum phosphate is infrequently measured in patients with AP and shows promise as a rapid, inexpensive, and early prognostic marker for worse outcomes of AP.

Gain of employment and depressive symptoms among previously unemployed workers: a longitudinal cohort study in South Korea.

BACKGROUND: The goal of this study is to examine the association between gain of employment and depressive symptoms among previously unemployed workers in South Korea. METHODS: Using data from the on-going Korean Welfare Panel Study, we determined four different employment statuses (i.e., unemployment, part-time precarious, full-time precarious, full-time permanent employment) at follow up (2008 or 2010) among the unemployed at baseline (2007 or 2009) and examined their association with depressive symptoms after excluding the people with depressive symptoms at baseline (N = 308). Depressive symptoms were assessed annually using the 11-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. RESULTS: After adjusting for covariates including health-related variables, unemployed individuals who gained full-time permanent employment (RR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.18, 0.83) and those who gained full-time precarious employment (RR: 0.26, 95% CI: 0.11, 0.63) were less likely to have depressive symptoms compared to those with persistent unemployment. In a subpopulation analysis conducted after additionally excluding the people with depressive symptoms 1 year before baseline, only the association between gaining full-time permanent employment and depressive symptoms was significant (RR: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.08, 0.86). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the benefits of full-time permanent employment on worker's mental health.

Costs of healthcare- and community-associated infections with antimicrobial-resistant versus antimicrobial-susceptible organisms.

OBJECTIVE: We compared differences in the hospital charges, length of hospital stay, and mortality between patients with healthcare- and community-associated bloodstream infections, urinary tract infections, and pneumonia due to antimicrobial-resistant versus -susceptible bacterial strains. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of an electronic database compiled from laboratory, pharmacy, surgery, financial, and patient location and device utilization sources was undertaken on 5699 inpatients who developed healthcare- or community-associated infections between 2006 and 2008 from 4 hospitals (1 community, 1 pediatric, 2 tertiary/quaternary care) in Manhattan. The main outcome measures were hospital charges, length of stay, and mortality among patients with antimicrobial-resistant and -susceptible infections caused by Staphylococcus aureus, Enterococcus faecium, Enterococcus faecalis, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Acinetobacter baumannii. RESULTS: Controlling for multiple confounders using linear regression and nearest neighbor matching based on propensity score estimates, resistant healthcare- and community-associated infections, when compared with susceptible strains of the same organism, were associated with significantly higher charges ($15,626; confidence interval [CI], $4339-$26,913 and $25,573; CI, $9331-$41,816, respectively) and longer hospital stays for community-associated infections (3.3; CI, 1.5-5.4). Patients with resistant healthcare-associated infections also had a significantly higher death rate (0.04; CI, 0.01-0.08). CONCLUSIONS: With careful matching of patients infected with the same organism, antimicrobial resistance was associated with higher charges, length of stay, and death rates. The difference in estimates after accounting for censoring for death highlight divergent social and hospital incentives in reducing patient risk for antimicrobial resistant infections.

Topology of local health officials' advice networks: mind the gaps.

OBJECTIVE: To determine how a health officials' advice network might contribute to a high-performing public health systems by facilitating diffusion of innovation and best practices. DESIGN: A secondary analysis of cross-sectional data obtained from the National Association of County and City Health Officials 2010 Profile of local health departments (LHDs) using network analysis. SETTING: The Profile survey is distributed biannually to all 2565 LHDs in the United States. In 2010, it included a network question: "In thinking about your peers who lead other local health departments in the U.S., list the five LHDs whose leaders you communicate with most frequently about administrative, professional, and leadership issues in public health." PARTICIPANTS: The network question was answered only by the top executive. The subjects are 1522 health officials who answered the network question plus 477 named as contacts (n = 1999). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Measurements to assess network topology were density, centralization, transitivity, and reciprocity. At the node level, average centrality, clustering, effective network size, and clique count were measured. The convergence of iterated correlations algorithm was used to detect subgroups. RESULTS: : A sparsely connected core periphery network exhibited minimal evidence of unified communication. Mutually connected small groups tend to clump within state boundaries suggesting gaps in information flow. The pattern persisted at the regional level with an average health official having an effective network of only 2 others. CONCLUSIONS: Communication between peers may not be the primary way professional information diffuses among local health officials. National groups involved in performance improvement may wish to consider strategies to increase the diffusion of best practices and innovations through this network.