Failure probability analysis of high fill levee considering multiple uncertainties and correlated failure modes.

Such complex causative factors in current failure probability models are represented by simply random uncertainty and completely independent or correlation of failure modes, which can often limit the model utility. In this study, we developed a methodology to construct failure probability models for high fill levees, incorporating the identification of uncertainties and an analysis of failure modes. Based on quantification of stochastic-grey-fuzzy uncertainties, probability analysis involved with overtopping, instability and seepage failure modes was implemented combined with probability and non-probability methods. Given that the interaction among failure modes typically exhibits nonlinear behavior, rather than linear correlation or complete independence, a simple methodology for the binary Copula function was established and implemented in MATLAB. This methodology was applied to the high fill segments of a long-distance water transfer project characterized by high population density. It shows that the failure probability of a single failure mode is overestimated when uncertainties are not considered, because of the randomness and fuzziness of some parameters and the greyness of information. Meanwhile, it is found that the magnitude of failure probability related to levee breach is overestimated without respect to failure modes correlation, especially when the probabilities of seepage and instability are both significant and closely aligned.

Analysis of the correlation between the axial length and diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus / 国际眼科杂志(Guoji Yanke Zazhi)

AIM: To investigate the correlation between axial length and diabetic retinopathy(DR)in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.METHODS:This study is a cross-sectional study. A total of 53 cases(104 eyes)of type 2 diabetes patients who admitted to the ophthalmology department of the Jining No.1 People's Hospital between January and May 2023 were included. Among these cases, 51 patients had both eyes included, while 2 patients had only one eye included. The patients were divided into two groups based on the presence or absence of fundus lesions. The non-diabetic retinopathy(NDR)group consisted of 32 eyes, and the DR group consisted of 72 eyes. Within the DR group, the patients were further categorized based on the severity of fundus lesions. The non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy(NPDR)group comprised of 27 eyes, and the proliferative diabetic retinopathy(PDR)group consisted of 45 eyes. The axial lengths of eyes in the DR group were divided into four groups using quartiles: 19 eyes in the 20.00～22.09 mm group, 17 eyes in the 22.10～22.70 mm group, 18 eyes in the 22.71～23.12 mm group, and 18 eyes in the 23.13～24.48 mm group. Binary Logistic regression analysis was employed to investigate the factors influencing the occurrence of DR and PDR.RESULTS:Binary Logistic regression analysis showed that both axial length and age significantly influenced the development of DR and PDR.(Axial length: OR=0.296, 95%CI:0.130～0.672, P<0.05; OR=0.237, 95%CI:0.076～0.736, P<0.05; age: OR=0.949, 95%CI:0.907～0.994, P<0.05; OR=0.879, 95%CI: 0.820～0.942, P<0.05). The risk of PDR in the group with axial length of 23.13～24.48 mm was reduced compared to the group with axial length of 20.00～22.09 mm(OR=0.057; 95%CI: 0.006～0.515, P=0.011).CONCLUSION:The findings indicate that longer axial length in patients with type 2 diabetes are associated with a decreased risk of developing DR, as well as a reduced likelihood of DR progressing to PDR. Therefore, a long axial length can be considered a protective factor against DR.

[Transformation of Nitrogen Nutrients in the Urban Sewage Pipe Network].

The paper focuses on the changes of nitrogen compounds in the Pipe network. A 1.2km long urban sewage simulation network with artificial water distribution was selected as the research subject. Then we analyzed and evaluated the change characteristics of nitrogen nutrients along the pipe. The results proved that ammonium chloride as the nitrogen source matrix, which was necessary for microorganisms in the Pipe to survive and proliferate. Free amino acids, combined amino acids and nucleic acid produced by metabolism were the major nitrogenous organic compounds. Among which, amino acids accounted for dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) in the majority. The characterization results of three-dimensional fluorescence spectroscopy and size exclusion chromatography showed that the characteristic fluorescence peak of organic matter in waste water was increased, and the protein ( tyrosine, tryptophan)--based fluorescence intensity gradually increased along the pipe. It was also found that small molecules of nutrients in the water were converted to complex organic molecules under the assimilation of microorganisms.

Characterization of microflora and transformation of organic matters in urban sewer system.

A study was conducted using a pilot sewer system consisting of 35 sequential sections, totalling 1200 m of gravity pipe. Urban sewage flowed into the sewer system at a constant flow rate until it reached physical and microbiological steady states. Microflora in the biofilm that attached to the inner surface along the pipe length were analysed. The organic compositions in both the liquid and gaseous phases of the sewer system were monitored. The results showed that typical fermentation bacteria, such as bacteroidetes and bacillus, were abundant in the system, indicating that the anoxic environment (DO = 0.3 mg/L) was suitable for fermentative bacterial growth. This resulted in a substantial reduction of the chemical oxygen demand (COD) along the pipe length and an increase of the biodegradable oxygen demand/chemical oxygen demand (BOD/COD) ratio from 0.68 at the beginning of the sewer system to 0.84 at the end of the sewer system; this was an indication of a transformation of organic matters from less-biodegradable to more-biodegradable products. Via molecular weight (MW) analysis, it was further identified that the larger organic molecules (MW > 10,000 Da) were transformed into products with smaller molecular weights. Regarding the fermentation products, the concentrations of the volatile fatty acids (VFAs) increased dramatically in the initial 600-m sections and then remained constant for the later sections except for the end section of the sewer; acetic acid was found to be the primary product of the VFAs. Gaseous carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) were found to increase along the length of the sewer system, whereas the concentrations of ethanol, lactic acid, and hydrogen (H2) were high at the beginning of the sewer and then decreased in the rear sections of the sewer system. It could thus be concluded that in an urban wastewater sewer system, fermentative microflora could perform important roles in contributing to organic matter removal and/or improving the biodegradability of organic matter.

Caramel color in soft drinks and exposure to 4-methylimidazole: a quantitative risk assessment.

Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI), a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California's Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 µg 4-MEI/day) carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York) in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions) and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3µg/L), lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day), lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4) and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years); Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7µg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases). 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 µg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing exposure to carcinogens in some beverages. Federal regulation of 4-MEI in caramel color may be appropriate.

Prospective study of relationship between metabolic diseases and stroke in Jinchang Cohort / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective@#To understand the incidence of stroke in the population of Jinchang Cohort and the relationship between metabolic diseases and stroke, and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and treatment of stroke in the population.@*Methods@#The epidemiological investigation data and physical examination data of the 33 042 follow-up participants in Jinchang Cohort were collected for a prospective cohort study. Restricted cubic splines functions was used to analyze the dose-response relationship between metabolic indexes and the risk of stroke incidence.@*Results@#1) The incidence rate of stroke in Jinchang Cohort was 1.59%, and the standardized incidence rate was 3.99%. 2) Hypertension (male HR=2.20, female HR=4.45) and dyslipidemia (male HR=1.49, female HR=1.79) were the risk factors of stroke incidence in the population and diabetes had influence on the incidence of stroke only in the males (HR=1.79), while obesity had influence only in the females (HR=1.64). The more kinds of metabolic diseases, the higher risk of stroke incidence was. 3) Systolic blood pressure had a non-linear dose-response correlation with the risk of stroke incidence, while diastolic blood pressure had a positive linear correlation with the risk of stroke incidence.@*Conclusions@#The incidence of stroke in Jinchang Cohort population was high compared with both domestic level and oversea level. The patients with metabolic diseases were the population at high-risk for stroke, and more attention should be paid to them in the prevention and treatment of stroke. Diastolic blood pressure might be more closely related to stroke.

Application of Mixed-effect Model in PMI Estimation by Vitreous Humor / 法医学杂志

Objective To test the changes of the potassium(K+)and magnesium(Mg2+)concentrations in vitreous humor of rabbits along with postmortem interval(PMI)under different temperatures, and explore the feasibility of PMI estimation using mixed-effect model. Methods After sacrifice, rabbit carcasses were preserved at 5℃, 15℃, 25℃ and 35℃, and 80-100μL of vitreous humor was collected by the double-eye alternating micro-sampling method at every 12 h. The concentrations of K+and Mg2+in vitreous humor were measured by a biochemical-immune analyser. The mixed-effect model was used to perform analy-sis and fitting, and established the equations for PMI estimation. The data detected from the samples that were stoned at 10℃, 20℃ and 30℃ with 20, 40 and 65 h were used to validate the equations of PMI estimation. Results The concentrations of K+and Mg2+[f(x,y)] in vitreous humor of rabbits under different temperature increased along with PMI(x). The relative equations of K+and Mg2+concentration with PMI and temperature under 5℃~35℃ were fK+(x,y)=3.413 0+0.309 2 x+0.337 6 y+0.010 83 xy-0.002 47 x2 (P<0.000 1), and fMg2+(x,y)=0.745 6+0.006 432 x+0.033 8 y(P<0.000 1), respectively. It was proved that the time of deviation for PMI estimation by K+and Mg2+was in 10 h when PMI was between 0 to 40 h, and the time of deviation was in 21 h when PMI was between 40 to 65 h. Conclusion In the ambient temperature range of 5℃-35℃, the mixed-effect model based on temperature and vitreous humor sub-stance concentrations can provide a new method for the practical application of vitreous humor chemi-cals for PMI estimation.

Research Progress on Postmortem Interval Estimation by Vitreous Humor / 法医学杂志

Postmortem interval (PMI) estimation is one of the most challenging problems in the field of forensic science. Vitreous humor is a hotspot which has been used for PMI estimation and postmortem chemical analysis in forensic pathology. In order to provide novel perspectives for the future research of PMI estimation using vitreous humor, the comparison between vitreous humor with other common body fluids, the effect of temperature on vitreous humor, vitreous humor detection method and data fitting method have been reviewed in this paper.

Association between fatty liver and type 2 diabetes in the baseline population of Jinchang Cohort / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To explore the association between fatty liver and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the baseline-population of Jinchang cohort study.Methods Data from all the participants involved in the baseline-population of Jinchang cohort study was used,to compare the risks of T2DM in fatty liver and non fatty liver groups and to explore the interaction between family history or fatty liver of diabetes and the prevalence of T2DM.Results Among all the 46 861 participants,10 574 were diagnosed as having fatty liver (22.56％),with the standardized rate as 20.66％.Another 3 818 participants were diagnosed as having T2DM (8.15％) with standardized rate as 6.90％.The prevalence of T2DM increased in parallel with the increase of age (trendx2 =2 833.671,trend P＜ 0.001).The prevalence of T2DM in the fatty liver group was significantly higher than that in the non-fatty liver group,both in men or women and in the overall population.Compared with the group of non-fatty liver,the risks of T2DM in fatty liver group were seen 1.78 times higher in males,2.33 times in women and 2.10 times in the overall population,after adjustment for factors as age,levels of education,smoking,drinking,physical exercise,BMI,family history of diabetes and some metabolic indicators (pressure,TC,TG,uric acid,ALT,AST,gamma-glutamyl transferase).Date from the interaction model showed that fatty liver and family history of diabetes present a positive additive interaction on T2DM (RERI=1.18,95％CI:0.59-1.78;AP=0.24,95％CI:0.14-0.34;S=1.43,95％CI:1.21-1.69).Conclusions Fatty liver could significantly increase the risk of T2DM and a positive additive interaction was also observed between fatty liver and family history of diabetes on T2DM.It was important to strengthen the prevention program on T2DM,in order to effectively control the development of fatty liver.

Association between fatty liver and type 2 diabetes in the baseline population of Jinchang Cohort / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To explore the association between fatty liver and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the baseline-population of Jinchang cohort study. Methods: Data from all the participants involved in the baseline-population of Jinchang cohort study was used, to compare the risks of T2DM in fatty liver and non fatty liver groups and to explore the interaction between family history or fatty liver of diabetes and the prevalence of T2DM. Results: Among all the 46 861 participants, 10 574 were diagnosed as having fatty liver (22.56%), with the standardized rate as 20.66%. Another 3 818 participants were diagnosed as having T2DM (8.15%) with standardized rate as 6.90%. The prevalence of T2DM increased in parallel with the increase of age (trend χ(2)=2 833.671, trend P<0.001). The prevalence of T2DM in the fatty liver group was significantly higher than that in the non-fatty liver group, both in men or women and in the overall population. Compared with the group of non-fatty liver, the risks of T2DM in fatty liver group were seen 1.78 times higher in males, 2.33 times in women and 2.10 times in the overall population, after adjustment for factors as age, levels of education, smoking, drinking, physical exercise, BMI, family history of diabetes and some metabolic indicators (pressure, TC, TG, uric acid, ALT, AST, gamma-glutamyl transferase). Date from the interaction model showed that fatty liver and family history of diabetes present a positive additive interaction on T2DM (RERI=1.18, 95%CI: 0.59-1.78; AP=0.24, 95%CI: 0.14-0.34; S=1.43, 95%CI: 1.21-1.69). Conclusions: Fatty liver could significantly increase the risk of T2DM and a positive additive interaction was also observed between fatty liver and family history of diabetes on T2DM. It was important to strengthen the prevention program on T2DM, in order to effectively control the development of fatty liver.

Risk factors of gout in Jinchang cohort: a Cox regression analysis / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To explore the incidence and risk factors of gout in Jinchang cohort and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of gout.Methods People without gout detected by baseline survey in Jinchang cohort were selected as study subjects.All the subjects were followed up through questionnaire interview,physical examination as well as laboratory test from January 24,2013 to November 24,2015.Cox regression model was used to analyze the risk factors for gout in Jinchang cohort.In addition,log-linear model was used to analyze the interaction between risk factors.Results A total of 33 153 subjects were followed up,and there were 277 newly diagnosed gout cases in the cohort.The overall incidence of gout was 0.8％.The incidence of gout in males was higher than that in the females,but the incidence of gout in males and females was similar after the age of 60 years.Cox regression analysis showed that age ＞40 years (at age 40 to 59 years:HR=2.982,95％CI:1.503-5.981;at age 60 to 91 years:HR=2.588,95％CI:1.107-6.049),alcohol abuse (HR=2.234,95％CI:1.128-4.427),obesity (HR=2.204,95％CI:1.216-3.997),diabetes (HR=2.725,95％CI:1.500-4.950) and high uric acid (HR=5.963,95％CI:3.577-9.943) were risk factors for gout,while weekly beans intake ≥0.25 kg (HR=0.528,95％CI:0.345-0.808) and regular physical exercise (HR=0.499,95％ CI:0.286-0.869) were protective factors for gout.The analysis with log-linear model showed that there were two order effects between the risk factors.Conclusions Age,beans intake,alcohol abuse,physical exercises,obesity,diabetes and high uric acid were important factors influencing the incidence of gout.It is important to have healthy lifestyle and dietary habits,receive regular health examination to prevent and control the incidence of gout in this cohort.

Risk factors of gout in Jinchang cohort: a Cox regression analysis / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To explore the incidence and risk factors of gout in Jinchang cohort and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of gout.Methods People without gout detected by baseline survey in Jinchang cohort were selected as study subjects.All the subjects were followed up through questionnaire interview,physical examination as well as laboratory test from January 24,2013 to November 24,2015.Cox regression model was used to analyze the risk factors for gout in Jinchang cohort.In addition,log-linear model was used to analyze the interaction between risk factors.Results A total of 33 153 subjects were followed up,and there were 277 newly diagnosed gout cases in the cohort.The overall incidence of gout was 0.8％.The incidence of gout in males was higher than that in the females,but the incidence of gout in males and females was similar after the age of 60 years.Cox regression analysis showed that age ＞40 years (at age 40 to 59 years:HR=2.982,95％CI:1.503-5.981;at age 60 to 91 years:HR=2.588,95％CI:1.107-6.049),alcohol abuse (HR=2.234,95％CI:1.128-4.427),obesity (HR=2.204,95％CI:1.216-3.997),diabetes (HR=2.725,95％CI:1.500-4.950) and high uric acid (HR=5.963,95％CI:3.577-9.943) were risk factors for gout,while weekly beans intake ≥0.25 kg (HR=0.528,95％CI:0.345-0.808) and regular physical exercise (HR=0.499,95％ CI:0.286-0.869) were protective factors for gout.The analysis with log-linear model showed that there were two order effects between the risk factors.Conclusions Age,beans intake,alcohol abuse,physical exercises,obesity,diabetes and high uric acid were important factors influencing the incidence of gout.It is important to have healthy lifestyle and dietary habits,receive regular health examination to prevent and control the incidence of gout in this cohort.

Heavy Metal Assessment among Chinese Nonferrous Metal-exposed Workers from the Jinchang Cohort Study / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Environmental exposure to heavy metals has been linked to a wide range of human health hazards. We detected the levels of 15 metals in urine samples from 500 representative sub-samples in an ongoing occupational cohort study (Jinchang Cohort) to directly evaluate metal exposure levels. Fifteen metals, namely As, Ba, Be, Cd, Cs, Cr, Co, Cu, Pb, Mn, Ni, Se, Tl, U, and Zn, were detected by inductively coupled plasma quadruple mass spectrometry. The results showed that median creatinine adjustment and geometric mean urinary metal levels were higher in the heavy metal-exposed group, except Se and Zn, than other reported general or occupational populations. Further studies should address the effects of heavy metals on human health.

[Analysis of the level and pattern of genomic DNA methylation in different ploidy watermelons by MSAP (Citrullus lanatus)].

DNA methylation is one of the major epigenetic modifications. It is very important to the regulation of gene expression. In present study, an autoploidy series (2x, 3x and 4x) in watermelon (Citrullus lanatus) was constructed and MSAP (Methylation-Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism) analysis was conducted to elucidate the level and pattern of DNA methylation at CCGG sites in different ploidy watermelons. Totally, 1883 genetic loci were produced by 23 pairs of selective primers, of which 647, 655 and 581 sites were detected in diploid, autotriploid and autotetraploid, respectively. The methylation sites were 181, 150 and 159, and the corresponding total methylation ratios were 28.0%, 22.9% and 27.4% in 2x, 3x and 4x, respectively, of which the fully methylation sites were 121, 80 and 82, and the corresponding fully methylation ratios were 18.7%, 12.2% and 14.1%. Further analysis of the pattern of DNA methylation suggested that compared 4x with 2x, about half of detected sites (54.4%) shown changes of DNA methylation patterns. Similarly, compared 4x with 3x, 45.4% sites also shown changes of DNA methylation patterns. Moreover, the trend of DNA methylation adjustment mainly involved increase of DNA methylation levels in 4x. However, compared 3x with 2x or 4x, although the changes of DNA methylation pattern also widely occurred, which involved 41.6% (compared 3x with 2x) and 45.4% (compared 3x with 4x) sites, respectively, the trend of DNA methylation adjustment mainly involved decrease of DNA methylation levels in 3x. All these results indicated that DNA methylation events were widely existed in different ploidy watermelons. However, not only based on the total DNA methylation ratio or fully DNA methylation ratio, the results both implied that the DNA methylation levels were not closely associated with the autopolyploidy level in watermelon. Autotriploid watermelon shows obvious low level of DNA methylation. Analysis of DNA methylation patterns also suggested that the adjustment of DNA methylation patterns in autotriploid mainly involved demethylation events, implying the unusual characteristic of DNA methylation status in 3x watermelon. The present results are valuable to further explore the nature of triploid vigor and autopolyploidizaion in watermelon from the view of epigenetics.

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Chinese nickel-exposed workers / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

The prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) was investigated in Chinese nickel-exposed workers. A total of 35 104 subjects were enrolled in this study. The age-adjusted prevalence of MS, BMI⋝25, diabetes, hypertension, and abnormal lipid was 13.9%, 29.5%, 12.8%, 27.5%, and 47.1%, respectively. The prevalence of BMI⋝25, hyperglycemia, and hypertension increased with the age of males and females, and was higher in males than in females (37.1% vs 21.5%, 15.9% vs 12.1%, 35.0% vs 24.3%, 54.3% vs 40.4%).