Global, regional, and national sepsis incidence and mortality, 1990-2017: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is life-threatening organ dysfunction due to a dysregulated host response to infection. It is considered a major cause of health loss, but data for the global burden of sepsis are limited. As a syndrome caused by underlying infection, sepsis is not part of standard Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) estimates. Accurate estimates are important to inform and monitor health policy interventions, allocation of resources, and clinical treatment initiatives. We estimated the global, regional, and national incidence of sepsis and mortality from this disorder using data from GBD 2017. METHODS: We used multiple cause-of-death data from 109 million individual death records to calculate mortality related to sepsis among each of the 282 underlying causes of death in GBD 2017. The percentage of sepsis-related deaths by underlying GBD cause in each location worldwide was modelled using mixed-effects linear regression. Sepsis-related mortality for each age group, sex, location, GBD cause, and year (1990-2017) was estimated by applying modelled cause-specific fractions to GBD 2017 cause-of-death estimates. We used data for 8·7 million individual hospital records to calculate in-hospital sepsis-associated case-fatality, stratified by underlying GBD cause. In-hospital sepsis-associated case-fatality was modelled for each location using linear regression, and sepsis incidence was estimated by applying modelled case-fatality to sepsis-related mortality estimates. FINDINGS: In 2017, an estimated 48·9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·9-62·9) incident cases of sepsis were recorded worldwide and 11·0 million (10·1-12·0) sepsis-related deaths were reported, representing 19·7% (18·2-21·4) of all global deaths. Age-standardised sepsis incidence fell by 37·0% (95% UI 11·8-54·5) and mortality decreased by 52·8% (47·7-57·5) from 1990 to 2017. Sepsis incidence and mortality varied substantially across regions, with the highest burden in sub-Saharan Africa, Oceania, south Asia, east Asia, and southeast Asia. INTERPRETATION: Despite declining age-standardised incidence and mortality, sepsis remains a major cause of health loss worldwide and has an especially high health-related burden in sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the University of Pittsburgh, the British Columbia Children's Hospital Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, and the Fleming Fund.

Public health utility of cause of death data: applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality.

BACKGROUND: Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments. METHODS: We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings. RESULTS: The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio-Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD. CONCLUSIONS: We provide a detailed description of redistribution methods developed for CoD data in the GBD; these methods represent an overall improvement in empiricism compared to past reliance on a priori knowledge.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality among people with severe mental illness in Brazil's public health system, 2000-15: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: People with severe mental illness have a mortality rate higher than the general population, living an average of 10-20 years less. Most studies of mortality among people with severe mental illness have occurred in high-income countries (HICs). We aimed to estimate all-cause and cause-specific relative risk (RR) and excess mortality rate (EMR) in a nationwide cohort of inpatients with severe mental illness compared with inpatients without severe mental illness in a middle income country, Brazil. METHODS: This national retrospective cohort study included all patients hospitalised through the Brazilian Public Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde [SUS]-Brazil) between Jan 1, 2000, and April 21, 2015. Probabilistic and deterministic record linkages integrated data from the Hospital Information System (Sistema de informações Hospitalares) and the National Mortality System (Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade). Follow-up duration was measured from the date of the patients' first hospitalisation until their death, or until April 21, 2015. Severe mental illness was defined as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or depressive disorder by ICD-10 codes used for the admission. RR and EMR were calculated with 95% CIs, comparing mortality among patients with severe mental illness with those with other diagnoses for patients aged 15 years and older. We redistributed deaths using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study methodology if ill-defined causes of death were stated as an underlying cause. FINDINGS: From Jan 1, 2000, to April 21, 2015, 72 021 918 patients (31 510 035 [43·8%] recorded as male and 40 974 426 [56·9%] recorded as female; mean age 41·1 (SD 23·8) years) were admitted to hospital, with 749 720 patients (372 458 [49·7%] recorded as male and 378 670 [50·5%] as female) with severe mental illness. 5 102 055 patient deaths (2 862 383 [56·1%] recorded as male and 2 314 781 [45·4%] as female) and 67 485 deaths in patients with severe mental illness (39 099 [57·9%] recorded as male and 28 534 [42·3%] as female) were registered. The RR for all-cause mortality in patients with severe mental illness was 1·27 (95% CI 1·27-1·28) and the EMR was 2·52 (2·44-2·61) compared with non-psychiatric inpatients during the follow-up period. The all-cause RR was higher for females and for younger age groups; however, EMR was higher in those aged 30-59 years. The RR and EMR varied across the leading causes of death, sex, and age groups. We identified injuries (suicide, interpersonal violence, and road injuries) and cardiovascular disease (ischaemic heart disease) as having the highest EMR among those with severe mental illness. Data on ethnicity were not available. INTERPRETATION: In contrast to studies from HICs, inpatients with severe mental illness in Brazil had high RR for idiopathic epilepsy, tuberculosis, HIV, and acute hepatitis, and no significant difference in mortality from cancer compared with inpatients without severe mental illness. These identified causes should be addressed as a priority to maximise mortality prevention among people with severe mental illness, especially in a middle-income country like Brazil that has low investment in mental health. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais, FAPEMIG, and the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior-Brasil.