Uganda Genome Resource Enables Insights into Population History and Genomic Discovery in Africa.

Genomic studies in African populations provide unique opportunities to understand disease etiology, human diversity, and population history. In the largest study of its kind, comprising genome-wide data from 6,400 individuals and whole-genome sequences from 1,978 individuals from rural Uganda, we find evidence of geographically correlated fine-scale population substructure. Historically, the ancestry of modern Ugandans was best represented by a mixture of ancient East African pastoralists. We demonstrate the value of the largest sequence panel from Africa to date as an imputation resource. Examining 34 cardiometabolic traits, we show systematic differences in trait heritability between European and African populations, probably reflecting the differential impact of genes and environment. In a multi-trait pan-African GWAS of up to 14,126 individuals, we identify novel loci associated with anthropometric, hematological, lipid, and glycemic traits. We find that several functionally important signals are driven by Africa-specific variants, highlighting the value of studying diverse populations across the region.

Linear mixed model for heritability estimation that explicitly addresses environmental variation.

The linear mixed model (LMM) is now routinely used to estimate heritability. Unfortunately, as we demonstrate, LMM estimates of heritability can be inflated when using a standard model. To help reduce this inflation, we used a more general LMM with two random effects-one based on genomic variants and one based on easily measured spatial location as a proxy for environmental effects. We investigated this approach with simulated data and with data from a Uganda cohort of 4,778 individuals for 34 phenotypes including anthropometric indices, blood factors, glycemic control, blood pressure, lipid tests, and liver function tests. For the genomic random effect, we used identity-by-descent estimates from accurately phased genome-wide data. For the environmental random effect, we constructed a covariance matrix based on a Gaussian radial basis function. Across the simulated and Ugandan data, narrow-sense heritability estimates were lower using the more general model. Thus, our approach addresses, in part, the issue of "missing heritability" in the sense that much of the heritability previously thought to be missing was fictional. Software is available at https://github.com/MicrosoftGenomics/FaST-LMM.

HIV-1 adaptation to NK-cell-mediated immune pressure.

Natural killer (NK) cells have an important role in the control of viral infections, recognizing virally infected cells through a variety of activating and inhibitory receptors. Epidemiological and functional studies have recently suggested that NK cells can also contribute to the control of HIV-1 infection through recognition of virally infected cells by both activating and inhibitory killer immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs). However, it remains unknown whether NK cells can directly mediate antiviral immune pressure in vivo in humans. Here we describe KIR-associated amino-acid polymorphisms in the HIV-1 sequence of chronically infected individuals, on a population level. We show that these KIR-associated HIV-1 sequence polymorphisms can enhance the binding of inhibitory KIRs to HIV-1-infected CD4(+) T cells, and reduce the antiviral activity of KIR-positive NK cells. These data demonstrate that KIR-positive NK cells can place immunological pressure on HIV-1, and that the virus can evade such NK-cell-mediated immune pressure by selecting for sequence polymorphisms, as was previously described for virus-specific T cells and neutralizing antibodies. NK cells might therefore have a previously underappreciated role in contributing to viral evolution.

HIV control is mediated in part by CD8+ T-cell targeting of specific epitopes.

UNLABELLED: We investigated the hypothesis that the correlation between the class I HLA types of an individual and whether that individual spontaneously controls HIV-1 is mediated by the targeting of specific epitopes by CD8(+) T cells. By measuring gamma interferon enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISPOT) assay responses to a panel of 257 optimally defined epitopes in 341 untreated HIV-infected persons, including persons who spontaneously control viremia, we found that the correlation between HLA types and control is mediated by the targeting of specific epitopes. Moreover, we performed a graphical model-based analysis that suggested that the targeting of specific epitopes is a cause of such control--that is, some epitopes are protective rather than merely associated with control--and identified eight epitopes that are significantly protective. In addition, we use an in silico analysis to identify protein regions where mutations are likely to affect the stability of a protein, and we found that the protective epitopes identified by the ELISPOT analysis correspond almost perfectly to such regions. This in silico analysis thus suggests a possible mechanism for control and could be used to identify protective epitopes that are not often targeted in natural infection but that may be potentially useful in a vaccine. Our analyses thus argue for the inclusion (and exclusion) of specific epitopes in an HIV vaccine. IMPORTANCE: Some individuals naturally control HIV replication in the absence of antiretroviral therapy, and this ability to control is strongly correlated with the HLA class I alleles that they express. Here, in a large-scale experimental study, we provide evidence that this correlation is mediated largely by the targeting of specific CD8(+) T-cell epitopes, and we identify eight epitopes that are likely to cause control. In addition, we provide an in silico analysis indicating that control occurs because mutations within these epitopes change the stability of the protein structures. This in silico analysis also identified additional epitopes that are not typically targeted in natural infection but may lead to control when included in a vaccine, provided that other epitopes that would otherwise distract the immune system from targeting them are excluded from the vaccine.

Greater power and computational efficiency for kernel-based association testing of sets of genetic variants.

MOTIVATION: Set-based variance component tests have been identified as a way to increase power in association studies by aggregating weak individual effects. However, the choice of test statistic has been largely ignored even though it may play an important role in obtaining optimal power. We compared a standard statistical test-a score test-with a recently developed likelihood ratio (LR) test. Further, when correction for hidden structure is needed, or gene-gene interactions are sought, state-of-the art algorithms for both the score and LR tests can be computationally impractical. Thus we develop new computationally efficient methods. RESULTS: After reviewing theoretical differences in performance between the score and LR tests, we find empirically on real data that the LR test generally has more power. In particular, on 15 of 17 real datasets, the LR test yielded at least as many associations as the score test-up to 23 more associations-whereas the score test yielded at most one more association than the LR test in the two remaining datasets. On synthetic data, we find that the LR test yielded up to 12% more associations, consistent with our results on real data, but also observe a regime of extremely small signal where the score test yielded up to 25% more associations than the LR test, consistent with theory. Finally, our computational speedups now enable (i) efficient LR testing when the background kernel is full rank, and (ii) efficient score testing when the background kernel changes with each test, as for gene-gene interaction tests. The latter yielded a factor of 2000 speedup on a cohort of size 13 500. AVAILABILITY: Software available at http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/redmond/projects/MSCompBio/Fastlmm/. CONTACT: heckerma@microsoft.com SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

High-dimensional immunomonitoring models of HIV-1-specific CD8 T-cell responses accurately identify subjects achieving spontaneous viral control.

UNLABELLED: The development of immunomonitoring models to determine HIV-1 vaccine efficacy is a major challenge. Studies suggest that HIV-1­specific CD8 T cells play a critical role in subjects achieving spontaneous viral control (HIV-1 controllers) and that they will be important in immune interventions. However, no single CD8 T-cell function is uniquely associated with controller status and the heterogeneity of responses targeting different epitopes further complicates the discovery of determinants of protective immunity. In the present study, we describe immunomonitoring models integrating multiple functions of epitope-specific CD8 T cells that distinguish controllers from subjects with treated or untreated progressive infection. Models integrating higher numbers of variables and trained with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) variant of logistic regression and 10-fold cross-validation produce "diagnostic tests" that display an excellent capacity to delineate subject categories. The test accuracy reaches 75% area under the receiving operating characteristic curve in cohorts matched for prevalence of protective alleles. Linear mixed-effects model analyses show that the proliferative capacity, cytokine production, and kinetics of cytokine secretion are associated with HIV-1 control. Although proliferative capacity is the strongest single discriminant, integrated modeling of different dimensions of data leverages individual associations. This strategy may have important applications in predictive model development and immune monitoring of HIV-1 vaccine trials. KEY POINTS: Immune monitoring models integrating multiple functions of HIV-1-specific CD8 T cells distinguish controllers from subjects with progressive HIV-1 infection. This strategy may have important applications in predictive model development and immune monitoring of HIV-1 vaccine trials.

Fine-mapping classical HLA variation associated with durable host control of HIV-1 infection in African Americans.

A small proportion of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) infected individuals, termed HIV-1 controllers, suppress viral replication to very low levels in the absence of therapy. Genetic investigations of this phenotype have strongly implicated variation in the class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region as key to HIV-1 control. We collected sequence-based classical class I HLA genotypes at 4-digit resolution in HIV-1-infected African American controllers and progressors (n = 1107), and tested them for association with host control using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism data to account for population structure. Several classical alleles at HLA-B were associated with host control, including B*57:03 [odds ratio (OR) = 5.1; P= 3.4 × 10(-18)] and B*81:01 (OR = 4.8; P= 1.3 × 10(-9)). Analysis of variable amino acid positions demonstrates that HLA-B position 97 is the most significant association with host control in African Americans (omnibus P = 1.2 × 10(-21)) and explains the signal of several HLA-B alleles, including B*57:03. Within HLA-B, we also identified independent effects at position 116 (omnibus P= 2.8 × 10(-15)) in the canonical F pocket, position 63 in the B pocket (P= 1.5 × 10(-3)) and the non-pocket position 245 (P= 8.8 × 10(-10)), which is thought to influence CD8-binding kinetics. Adjusting for these HLA-B effects, there is evidence for residual association in the MHC region. These results underscore the key role of HLA-B in affecting HIV-1 replication, likely through the molecular interaction between HLA-B and viral peptides presented by infected cells, and suggest that sites outside the peptide-binding pocket also influence HIV-1 control.

FaST linear mixed models for genome-wide association studies.

We describe factored spectrally transformed linear mixed models (FaST-LMM), an algorithm for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) that scales linearly with cohort size in both run time and memory use. On Wellcome Trust data for 15,000 individuals, FaST-LMM ran an order of magnitude faster than current efficient algorithms. Our algorithm can analyze data for 120,000 individuals in just a few hours, whereas current algorithms fail on data for even 20,000 individuals (http://mscompbio.codeplex.com/).

A powerful and efficient set test for genetic markers that handles confounders.

MOTIVATION: Approaches for testing sets of variants, such as a set of rare or common variants within a gene or pathway, for association with complex traits are important. In particular, set tests allow for aggregation of weak signal within a set, can capture interplay among variants and reduce the burden of multiple hypothesis testing. Until now, these approaches did not address confounding by family relatedness and population structure, a problem that is becoming more important as larger datasets are used to increase power. RESULTS: We introduce a new approach for set tests that handles confounders. Our model is based on the linear mixed model and uses two random effects-one to capture the set association signal and one to capture confounders. We also introduce a computational speedup for two random-effects models that makes this approach feasible even for extremely large cohorts. Using this model with both the likelihood ratio test and score test, we find that the former yields more power while controlling type I error. Application of our approach to richly structured Genetic Analysis Workshop 14 data demonstrates that our method successfully corrects for population structure and family relatedness, whereas application of our method to a 15 000 individual Crohn's disease case-control cohort demonstrates that it additionally recovers genes not recoverable by univariate analysis. AVAILABILITY: A Python-based library implementing our approach is available at http://mscompbio.codeplex.com.

Widespread impact of HLA restriction on immune control and escape pathways of HIV-1.

The promiscuous presentation of epitopes by similar HLA class I alleles holds promise for a universal T-cell-based HIV-1 vaccine. However, in some instances, cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) restricted by HLA alleles with similar or identical binding motifs are known to target epitopes at different frequencies, with different functional avidities and with different apparent clinical outcomes. Such differences may be illuminated by the association of similar HLA alleles with distinctive escape pathways. Using a novel computational method featuring phylogenetically corrected odds ratios, we systematically analyzed differential patterns of immune escape across all optimally defined epitopes in Gag, Pol, and Nef in 2,126 HIV-1 clade C-infected adults. Overall, we identified 301 polymorphisms in 90 epitopes associated with HLA alleles belonging to shared supertypes. We detected differential escape in 37 of 38 epitopes restricted by more than one allele, which included 278 instances of differential escape at the polymorphism level. The majority (66 to 97%) of these resulted from the selection of unique HLA-specific polymorphisms rather than differential epitope targeting rates, as confirmed by gamma interferon (IFN-γ) enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot assay (ELISPOT) data. Discordant associations between HLA alleles and viral load were frequently observed between allele pairs that selected for differential escape. Furthermore, the total number of associated polymorphisms strongly correlated with average viral load. These studies confirm that differential escape is a widespread phenomenon and may be the norm when two alleles present the same epitope. Given the clinical correlates of immune escape, such heterogeneity suggests that certain epitopes will lead to discordant outcomes if applied universally in a vaccine.

Translation of HLA-HIV associations to the cellular level: HIV adapts to inflate CD8 T cell responses against Nef and HLA-adapted variant epitopes.

Strong statistical associations between polymorphisms in HIV-1 population sequences and carriage of HLA class I alleles have been widely used to identify possible sites of CD8 T cell immune selection in vivo. However, there have been few attempts to prospectively and systematically test these genetic hypotheses arising from population-based studies at a cellular, functional level. We assayed CD8 T cell epitope-specific IFN-γ responses in 290 individuals from the same cohort, which gave rise to 874 HLA-HIV associations in genetic analyses, taking into account autologous viral sequences and individual HLA genotypes. We found immunological evidence for 58% of 374 associations tested as sites of primary immune selection and identified up to 50 novel HIV-1 epitopes using this reverse-genomics approach. Many HLA-adapted epitopes elicited equivalent or higher-magnitude IFN-γ responses than did the nonadapted epitopes, particularly in Nef. At a population level, inclusion of all of the immunoreactive variant CD8 T cell epitopes in Gag, Pol, Nef, and Env suggested that HIV adaptation leads to an inflation of Nef-directed immune responses relative to other proteins. We concluded that HLA-HIV associations mark viral epitopes subject to CD8 T cell selection. These results can be used to guide functional studies of specific epitopes and escape mutations, as well as to test, train, and evaluate analytical models of viral escape and fitness. The inflation of Nef and HLA-adapted variant responses may have negative effects on natural and vaccine immunity against HIV and, therefore, has implications for diversity coverage approaches in HIV vaccine design.

Correction for hidden confounders in the genetic analysis of gene expression.

Understanding the genetic underpinnings of disease is important for screening, treatment, drug development, and basic biological insight. One way of getting at such an understanding is to find out which parts of our DNA, such as single-nucleotide polymorphisms, affect particular intermediary processes such as gene expression. Naively, such associations can be identified using a simple statistical test on all paired combinations of genetic variants and gene transcripts. However, a wide variety of confounders lie hidden in the data, leading to both spurious associations and missed associations if not properly addressed. We present a statistical model that jointly corrects for two particular kinds of hidden structure--population structure (e.g., race, family-relatedness), and microarray expression artifacts (e.g., batch effects), when these confounders are unknown. Applying our method to both real and synthetic, human and mouse data, we demonstrate the need for such a joint correction of confounders, and also the disadvantages of other possible approaches based on those in the current literature. In particular, we show that our class of models has maximum power to detect eQTL on synthetic data, and has the best performance on a bronze standard applied to real data. Lastly, our software and the associations we found with it are available at http://www.microsoft.com/science.

Additive contribution of HLA class I alleles in the immune control of HIV-1 infection.

Previous studies have identified a central role for HLA-B alleles in influencing control of HIV infection. An alternative possibility is that a small number of HLA-B alleles may have a very strong impact on HIV disease outcome, dominating the contribution of other HLA alleles. Here, we find that even following the exclusion of subjects expressing any of the HLA-B class I alleles (B*57, B*58, and B*18) identified to have the strongest influence on control, the dominant impact of HLA-B alleles on virus set point and absolute CD4 count variation remains significant. However, we also find that the influence of HLA on HIV control in this C-clade-infected cohort from South Africa extends beyond HLA-B as HLA-Cw type remains a significant predictor of virus and CD4 count following exclusion of the strongest HLA-B associations. Furthermore, there is evidence of interdependent protective effects of the HLA-Cw*0401-B*8101, HLA-Cw*1203-B*3910, and HLA-A*7401-B*5703 haplotypes that cannot be explained solely by linkage to a protective HLA-B allele. Analysis of individuals expressing both protective and detrimental alleles shows that even the strongest HLA alleles appear to have an additive rather than dominant effect on HIV control at the individual level. Finally, weak but significant frequency-dependent effects in this cohort can be detected only by looking at an individual's combined HLA allele frequencies. Taken together, these data suggest that although individual HLA alleles, particularly HLA-B, can have a strong impact, HIV control overall is likely to be influenced by the additive effect of some or all of the other HLA alleles present.

Gag-protease-mediated replication capacity in HIV-1 subtype C chronic infection: associations with HLA type and clinical parameters.

The mechanisms underlying HIV-1 control by protective HLA class I alleles are not fully understood and could involve selection of escape mutations in functionally important Gag epitopes resulting in fitness costs. This study was undertaken to investigate, at the population level, the impact of HLA-mediated immune pressure in Gag on viral fitness and its influence on HIV-1 pathogenesis. Replication capacities of 406 recombinant viruses encoding plasma-derived Gag-protease from patients chronically infected with HIV-1 subtype C were assayed in an HIV-1-inducible green fluorescent protein reporter cell line. Viral replication capacities varied significantly with respect to the specific HLA-B alleles expressed by the patient, and protective HLA-B alleles, most notably HLA-B81, were associated with lower replication capacities. HLA-associated mutations at low-entropy sites, especially the HLA-B81-associated 186S mutation in the TL9 epitope, were associated with lower replication capacities. Most mutations linked to alterations in replication capacity in the conserved p24 region decreased replication capacity, while most in the highly variable p17 region increased replication capacity. Replication capacity also correlated positively with baseline viral load and negatively with baseline CD4 count but did not correlate with the subsequent rate of CD4 decline. In conclusion, there is evidence that protective HLA alleles, in particular HLA-B81, significantly influence Gag-protease function by driving sequence changes in Gag and that conserved regions of Gag should be included in a vaccine aiming to drive HIV-1 toward a less fit state. However, the long-term clinical benefit of immune-driven fitness costs is uncertain given the lack of correlation with longitudinal markers of disease progression.

Early selection in Gag by protective HLA alleles contributes to reduced HIV-1 replication capacity that may be largely compensated for in chronic infection.

Mutations that allow escape from CD8 T-cell responses are common in HIV-1 and may attenuate pathogenesis by reducing viral fitness. While this has been demonstrated for individual cases, a systematic investigation of the consequence of HLA class I-mediated selection on HIV-1 in vitro replication capacity (RC) has not been undertaken. We examined this question by generating recombinant viruses expressing plasma HIV-1 RNA-derived Gag-Protease sequences from 66 acute/early and 803 chronic untreated subtype B-infected individuals in an NL4-3 background and measuring their RCs using a green fluorescent protein (GFP) reporter CD4 T-cell assay. In acute/early infection, viruses derived from individuals expressing the protective alleles HLA-B*57, -B*5801, and/or -B*13 displayed significantly lower RCs than did viruses from individuals lacking these alleles (P < 0.05). Furthermore, acute/early RC inversely correlated with the presence of HLA-B-associated Gag polymorphisms (R = -0.27; P = 0.03), suggesting a cumulative effect of primary escape mutations on fitness during the first months of infection. At the chronic stage of infection, no strong correlations were observed between RC and protective HLA-B alleles or with the presence of HLA-B-associated polymorphisms restricted by protective alleles despite increased statistical power to detect these associations. However, RC correlated positively with the presence of known compensatory mutations in chronic viruses from B*57-expressing individuals harboring the Gag T242N mutation (n = 50; R = 0.36; P = 0.01), suggesting that the rescue of fitness defects occurred through mutations at secondary sites. Additional mutations in Gag that may modulate the impact of the T242N mutation on RC were identified. A modest inverse correlation was observed between RC and CD4 cell count in chronic infection (R = -0.17; P < 0.0001), suggesting that Gag-Protease RC could increase over the disease course. Notably, this association was stronger for individuals who expressed B*57, B*58, or B*13 (R = -0.27; P = 0.004). Taken together, these data indicate that certain protective HLA alleles contribute to early defects in HIV-1 fitness through the selection of detrimental mutations in Gag; however, these effects wane as compensatory mutations accumulate in chronic infection. The long-term control of HIV-1 in some persons who express protective alleles suggests that early fitness hits may provide lasting benefits.

Design, expression, and processing of epitomized hepatitis C virus-encoded CTL epitopes.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) vaccine efficacy may crucially depend on immunogen length and coverage of viral sequence diversity. However, covering a considerable proportion of the circulating viral sequence variants would likely require long immunogens, which for the conserved portions of the viral genome, would contain unnecessarily redundant sequence information. In this study, we present the design and in vitro performance analysis of a novel "epitome" approach that compresses frequent immune targets of the cellular immune response against HCV into a shorter immunogen sequence. Compression of immunological information is achieved by partial overlapping shared sequence motifs between individual epitopes. At the same time, sequence diversity coverage is provided by taking advantage of emerging cross-reactivity patterns among epitope variants so that epitope variants associated with the broadest variant cross-recognition are preferentially included. The processing and presentation analysis of specific epitopes included in such a compressed, in vitro-expressed HCV epitome indicated effective processing of a majority of tested epitopes, although re-presentation of some epitopes may require refined sequence design. Together, the present study establishes the epitome approach as a potential powerful tool for vaccine immunogen design, especially suitable for the induction of cellular immune responses against highly variable pathogens.

Marked epitope- and allele-specific differences in rates of mutation in human immunodeficiency type 1 (HIV-1) Gag, Pol, and Nef cytotoxic T-lymphocyte epitopes in acute/early HIV-1 infection.

During acute human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection, early host cellular immune responses drive viral evolution. The rates and extent of these mutations, however, remain incompletely characterized. In a cohort of 98 individuals newly infected with HIV-1 subtype B, we longitudinally characterized the rates and extent of HLA-mediated escape and reversion in Gag, Pol, and Nef using a rational definition of HLA-attributable mutation based on the analysis of a large independent subtype B data set. We demonstrate rapid and dramatic HIV evolution in response to immune pressures that in general reflect established cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response hierarchies in early infection. On a population level, HLA-driven evolution was observed in approximately 80% of published CTL epitopes. Five of the 10 most rapidly evolving epitopes were restricted by protective HLA alleles (HLA-B*13/B*51/B*57/B*5801; P = 0.01), supporting the importance of a strong early CTL response in HIV control. Consistent with known fitness costs of escape, B*57-associated mutations in Gag were among the most rapidly reverting positions upon transmission to non-B*57-expressing individuals, whereas many other HLA-associated polymorphisms displayed slow or negligible reversion. Overall, an estimated minimum of 30% of observed substitutions in Gag/Pol and 60% in Nef were attributable to HLA-associated escape and reversion events. Results underscore the dominant role of immune pressures in driving early within-host HIV evolution. Dramatic differences in escape and reversion rates across codons, genes, and HLA restrictions are observed, highlighting the complexity of viral adaptation to the host immune response.

Central role of reverting mutations in HLA associations with human immunodeficiency virus set point.

Much uncertainty still exists over what T-cell responses need to be induced by an effective human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vaccine. Previous studies have hypothesized that the effective CD8(+) T-cell responses are those driving the selection of escape mutations that reduce viral fitness and therefore revert post-transmission. In this study, we adopted a novel approach to define better the role of reverting escape mutations in immune control of HIV infection. This analysis of sequences from 710 study subjects with chronic C-clade HIV type 1 infection demonstrates the importance of mutations that impose a fitness cost in the control of viremia. Consistent with previous studies, the viral set points associated with each HLA-B allele are strongly correlated with the number of Gag-specific polymorphisms associated with the relevant HLA-B allele (r = -0.56, P = 0.0034). The viral set points associated with each HLA-C allele were also strongly correlated with the number of Pol-specific polymorphisms associated with the relevant HLA-C allele (r = -0.67, P = 0.0047). However, critically, both these correlations were dependent solely on the polymorphisms identified as reverting. Therefore, despite the inevitable evolution of viral escape, viremia can be controlled through the selection of mutations that are detrimental to viral fitness. The significance of these results is in highlighting the rationale for an HIV vaccine that can induce these broad responses.

HLA class I-driven evolution of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype c proteome: immune escape and viral load.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) mutations that confer escape from cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) recognition can sometimes result in lower viral fitness. These mutations can then revert upon transmission to a new host in the absence of CTL-mediated immune selection pressure restricted by the HLA alleles of the prior host. To identify these potentially critical recognition points on the virus, we assessed HLA-driven viral evolution using three phylogenetic correction methods across full HIV-1 subtype C proteomes from a cohort of 261 South Africans and identified amino acids conferring either susceptibility or resistance to CTLs. A total of 558 CTL-susceptible and -resistant HLA-amino acid associations were identified and organized into 310 immunological sets (groups of individual associations related to a single HLA/epitope combination). Mutations away from seven susceptible residues, including four in Gag, were associated with lower plasma viral-RNA loads (q < 0.2 [where q is the expected false-discovery rate]) in individuals with the corresponding HLA alleles. The ratio of susceptible to resistant residues among those without the corresponding HLA alleles varied in the order Vpr > Gag > Rev > Pol > Nef > Vif > Tat > Env > Vpu (Fisher's exact test; P < or = 0.0009 for each comparison), suggesting the same ranking of fitness costs by genes associated with CTL escape. Significantly more HLA-B (chi(2); P = 3.59 x 10(-5)) and HLA-C (chi(2); P = 4.71 x 10(-6)) alleles were associated with amino acid changes than HLA-A, highlighting their importance in driving viral evolution. In conclusion, specific HIV-1 residues (enriched in Vpr, Gag, and Rev) and HLA alleles (particularly B and C) confer susceptibility to the CTL response and are likely to be important in the development of vaccines targeted to decrease the viral load.