A model for social spreading of Covid-19: Cases of Mexico, Finland and Iceland.

The shocking severity of the Covid-19 pandemic has woken up an unprecedented interest and accelerated effort of the scientific community to model and forecast epidemic spreading to find ways to control it regionally and between regions. Here we present a model that in addition to describing the dynamics of epidemic spreading with the traditional compartmental approach takes into account the social behaviour of the population distributed over a geographical region. The region to be modelled is defined as a two-dimensional grid of cells, in which each cell is weighted with the population density. In each cell a compartmental SEIRS system of delay difference equations is used to simulate the local dynamics of the disease. The infections between cells are modelled by a network of connections, which could be terrestrial, between neighbouring cells, or long range, between cities by air, road or train traffic. In addition, since people make trips without apparent reason, noise is considered to account for them to carry contagion between two randomly chosen distant cells. Hence, there is a clear separation of the parameters related to the biological characteristics of the disease from the ones that represent the spatial spread of infections due to social behaviour. We demonstrate that these parameters provide sufficient information to trace the evolution of the pandemic in different situations. In order to show the predictive power of this kind of approach we have chosen three, in a number of ways different countries, Mexico, Finland and Iceland, in which the pandemics have followed different dynamic paths. Furthermore we find that our model seems quite capable of reproducing the path of the pandemic for months with few initial data. Unlike similar models, our model shows the emergence of multiple waves in the case when the disease becomes endemic.

Dynamics of hierarchical weighted networks of van der Pol oscillators.

We investigate the dynamics of regular fractal-like networks of hierarchically coupled van der Pol oscillators. The hierarchy is imposed in terms of the coupling strengths or link weights. We study the low frequency modes, as well as frequency and phase synchronization, in the network by a process of repeated coarse-graining of oscillator units. At any given stage of this process, we sum over the signals from the oscillator units of a clique to obtain a new oscillating unit. The frequencies and the phases for the coarse-grained oscillators are found to progressively synchronize with the number of coarse-graining steps. Furthermore, the characteristic frequency is found to decrease and finally stabilize to a value that can be tuned via the parameters of the system. We compare our numerical results with those of an approximate analytic solution and find good qualitative agreement. Our study on this idealized model shows how oscillations with a precise frequency can be obtained in systems with heterogeneous couplings. It also demonstrates the effect of imposing a hierarchy in terms of link weights instead of one that is solely topological, where the connectivity between oscillators would be the determining factor, as is usually the case.

Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain.

A global disaster, such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic, affects every aspect of our lives and there is a need to investigate these highly complex phenomena if one aims to diminish their impact in the health of the population, as well as their socio-economic stability. In this paper we present an attempt to understand the role of the governmental authorities and the response of the rest of the population facing such emergencies. We present a mathematical model that takes into account the epidemiological features of the pandemic and also the actions of people responding to it, focusing only on three aspects of the system, namely, the fear of catching this serious disease, the impact on the economic activities and the compliance of the people to the mitigating measures adopted by the authorities. We apply the model to the specific case of Spain, since there are accurate data available about these three features. We focused on tourism as an example of the economic activity, since this sector of economy is one of the most likely to be affected by the restrictions imposed by the authorities, and because it represents an important part of Spanish economy. The results of numerical calculations agree with the empirical data in such a way that we can acquire a better insight of the different processes at play in such a complex situation, and also in other different circumstances.

Are opinions based on science: modelling social response to scientific facts.

As scientists we like to think that modern societies and their members base their views, opinions and behaviour on scientific facts. This is not necessarily the case, even though we are all (over-) exposed to information flow through various channels of media, i.e. newspapers, television, radio, internet, and web. It is thought that this is mainly due to the conflicting information on the mass media and to the individual attitude (formed by cultural, educational and environmental factors), that is, one external factor and another personal factor. In this paper we will investigate the dynamical development of opinion in a small population of agents by means of a computational model of opinion formation in a co-evolving network of socially linked agents. The personal and external factors are taken into account by assigning an individual attitude parameter to each agent, and by subjecting all to an external but homogeneous field to simulate the effect of the media. We then adjust the field strength in the model by using actual data on scientific perception surveys carried out in two different populations, which allow us to compare two different societies. We interpret the model findings with the aid of simple mean field calculations. Our results suggest that scientifically sound concepts are more difficult to acquire than concepts not validated by science, since opposing individuals organize themselves in close communities that prevent opinion consensus.

Phase change in an opinion-dynamics model with separation of time scales.

We define an opinion formation model of agents in a one-dimensional ring, where the opinion of an agent evolves due to its interactions with close neighbors and due to its either positive or negative attitude toward the overall mood of all the other agents. While the dynamics of the agent's opinion is described with an appropriate differential equation, from time to time pairs of agents are allowed to change their locations to improve the homogeneity of opinion (or comfort feeling) with respect to their short-range environment. In this way the timescale of transaction dynamics and that of environment update are well separated and controlled by a single parameter. By varying this parameter we discovered a phase change in the number of undecided individuals. This phenomenon arises from the fact that too frequent location exchanges among agents result in frustration in their opinion formation. Our mean field analysis supports this picture.

Opinion and community formation in coevolving networks.

In human societies, opinion formation is mediated by social interactions, consequently taking place on a network of relationships and at the same time influencing the structure of the network and its evolution. To investigate this coevolution of opinions and social interaction structure, we develop a dynamic agent-based network model by taking into account short range interactions like discussions between individuals, long range interactions like a sense for overall mood modulated by the attitudes of individuals, and external field corresponding to outside influence. Moreover, individual biases can be naturally taken into account. In addition, the model includes the opinion-dependent link-rewiring scheme to describe network topology coevolution with a slower time scale than that of the opinion formation. With this model, comprehensive numerical simulations and mean field calculations have been carried out and they show the importance of the separation between fast and slow time scales resulting in the network to organize as well-connected small communities of agents with the same opinion.