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1.
J Surg Res ; 269: 11-17, 2022 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34500178

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Curative surgery for ulcerative colitis can be subdivided into restorative (with pouch and anastomosis) and non-restorative operations. Restorative surgery in older adults is controversial, due to concerns about surgical risk and long-term functional outcome. The goal of this study is to compare 30-day outcomes for restorative and non-restorative surgery in older adults with ulcerative colitis. METHODS: Data were obtained from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Initiative Program from 2012-2018. Patients were included if they were >65 years old and had ulcerative colitis. Restorative and non-restorative surgeries were defined with procedure codes. Patient characteristics and adverse surgical outcomes were compared between restorative and non-restorative surgeries utilizing chi-square tests and Fisher's exact tests. Multivariate logistic regression models were constructed to evaluate the association of restorative versus non-restorative surgery with adverse surgical outcomes while adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of 392 total patients, 95 had restorative and 297 had non-restorative surgery. Patients undergoing restorative surgery, compared to non-restorative surgery, were significantly younger (P<0.01), had lower incidences of steroid usage (P<0.001) and higher rates of readmission (P = 0.02). There were no differences in post-operative complications between the groups in both unadjusted analyses and covariate-adjusted regression analysis (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: In carefully selected older patients with ulcerative colitis, restorative surgery is associated with increased readmission, but otherwise similar rates of morbidity or mortality compared to non-restorative surgery. Data regarding postoperative functional outcome and quality of life are also needed to help select the most appropriate curative option for older adults.


Assuntos
Colite Ulcerativa , Bolsas Cólicas , Proctocolectomia Restauradora , Idoso , Anastomose Cirúrgica/efeitos adversos , Colite Ulcerativa/cirurgia , Humanos , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/etiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/cirurgia , Proctocolectomia Restauradora/efeitos adversos , Proctocolectomia Restauradora/métodos , Qualidade de Vida , Estudos Retrospectivos , Resultado do Tratamento
2.
J Surg Res ; 279: 567-574, 2022 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35921723

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: A preoperative goals-of-care discussion is essential in maintaining the autonomy of older adults who require surgery. The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) risk calculator and its association with age for patients who underwent pancreatectomy. METHODS: Using the American College of Surgeons NSQIP database, patients who underwent pancreatectomy between 2012 and 2015 were identified. Age was categorized into three groups: 18-64, 65-79, and 80-89 y. Analysis of variance and Pearson correlation coefficients were employed to assess differences between age categories in predicted and actual mortality and morbidity. Covariate-adjusted logistic regression models were employed to evaluate associations while accounting for potential confounders. RESULTS: A total of 17,906 patients were included. The correlation between actual and predicted mortality was low (r = 0.14, P < 0.001). This correlation was weakest for the age category 80-89 y (r = 0.04, P = 0.07) and strongest for 65-79 y category (r = 0.14, P > 0.001). The correlation was weakest among patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy (r = 0.06, P = 0.08) and in this group mortality was overestimated for older adults in the age group 80-89 (actual mortality: 3.2% versus predicted mortality: 5.6%, P = 0.08). After adjusting for covariates, the interaction term between age and predicted mortality (P = 0.0021) indicated that the relationship between predicted and actual mortality is significantly influenced by patient age. CONCLUSIONS: The NSQIP risk calculator appears to overestimate mortality and morbidity risk for elderly patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy. These predictions should be used with caution in preoperative goals-of-care discussions with patients aged 80 y and older.


Assuntos
Pancreatectomia , Melhoria de Qualidade , Idoso , Humanos , Pancreatectomia/efeitos adversos , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/etiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco
3.
J Surg Res ; 255: 325-331, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32593891

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition has been associated with adverse surgical outcomes, but data regarding its impact specifically in rectal cancer are sparse. The goal of this study was to use national data to determine the effects of malnutrition on surgical outcomes in rectal cancer resection. METHODS: Data were obtained from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Initiative Program from the years 2012-2015. Patients were included on the basis of International Classification of Disease 9/10 and Current Procedural Terminology codes for rectal cancer and proctectomy. Malnutrition was defined as body mass index <18.5 kg/m2, weight loss >10% in 6 mo, or preoperative albumin <3.5 mg/dL. Associations between malnutrition and postoperative outcomes were assessed by the Student t-test and chi-square test. Multivariate regression models were constructed to adjust for potential confounders of the association between malnutrition and surgical outcomes. RESULTS: Of the 9289 patients with primary rectal cancer who underwent resection, 1425 (15%) were in a state of malnutrition at the time of surgery. Patients with malnutrition had longer mean length of stay (LOS), and higher rates of 30-d mortality, wound infection, organ-space infection, sepsis, reoperation, prolonged LOS (>30 d), failure to wean off ventilator, renal failure, and cardiac arrest. With the exception of LOS, renal failure, and organ-space infection, malnutrition was still significantly associated with higher rates of these adverse outcomes after adjustment for confounders in multivariate regression models. CONCLUSIONS: Malnutrition is a practical marker associated with a variety of adverse outcomes after rectal cancer surgery, and it represents a potential target for nutritional therapies to improve surgical outcomes.


Assuntos
Procedimentos Cirúrgicos do Sistema Digestório/estatística & dados numéricos , Desnutrição/complicações , Estado Nutricional , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Retais/cirurgia , Idoso , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos do Sistema Digestório/efeitos adversos , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Desnutrição/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/etiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
4.
Ann Surg ; 269(1): 177-183, 2019 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29189383

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a simple geriatric screening tool that performs as well as more complex assessments BACKGROUND:: Many tools that predict treatment risk in older adults are impractical for routine clinical use. METHODS: We prospectively conducted comprehensive preoperative evaluations on 1025 patients age ≥75 years who presented to Sinai Hospital of Baltimore for major elective surgery, then retrospectively reviewed patients' medical records for occurrence of postoperative outcomes. Using logistic regression modeling and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis we selected the best combination of simple tests, labeling this the Sinai Abbreviated Geriatric Evaluation (SAGE). The performance of the SAGE was then compared with 3 standard tools in its power to predict postoperative outcomes. RESULTS: The SAGE is a statistically significant predictor of postoperative outcomes. Each unit decrease in SAGE score was significantly associated with a 51% (95% CI 1.30-1.77) increase in odds of a complication, a 2-fold increase in odds of postoperative delirium (95% CI 1.65-2.66), a 27% increase in odds of length of hospital stay >2 days (95% CI 1.10-1.47), a 54% increase in odds of a hospital readmission within 30 days (95% CI 1.25-2.88), and a 38% increase in odds of an unanticipated discharge to higher-level care (95% CI 1.18-1.61). We estimated the receiver operating characteristic curve area under the curve (AUC) for the SAGE of 0.69, 0.77, 0.73, 0.66, and 0.78 for the above outcomes, respectively. The SAGE performed as well in predicting postoperative outcomes as Fried's frailty phenotype, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Class (ASA). CONCLUSION: The SAGE performs as well as other geriatric evaluations that require equipment or memorization.


Assuntos
Idoso Fragilizado/estatística & dados numéricos , Fragilidade/epidemiologia , Avaliação Geriátrica/métodos , Hospitais/estatística & dados numéricos , Medição de Risco/métodos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Baltimore/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Tempo de Internação/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Morbidade/tendências , Estudos Retrospectivos
6.
Ann Surg ; 267(2): 280-290, 2018 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28277408

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to establish high-quality, valid standards to improve surgical care of the older adult. BACKGROUND: The aging population increases demand for high-quality surgical care. Building upon prior guidelines, quality indicators, and pilot projects, the Coalition for Quality in Geriatric Surgery (CQGS) includes 58 diverse stakeholder organizations committed to improving geriatric surgery. METHODS: Using a modified RAND-UCLA Appropriateness Methodology, 44 of 58 CQGS Stakeholders twice rated validity (primary outcome) and feasibility for 308 standards, ranging from goals and decision-making, pre-operative assessment and optimization, perioperative and postoperative care, to transitions of care beyond the acute care hospital. RESULTS: Three hundred six of 308 (99%) standards were rated as valid to improve quality of geriatric surgery. There were 4 sections. Section 1 included 157 (57%) standards and focused on goals and decision-making, preoperative optimization, and transitions into and out of the hospital. Section 2 included 84 (27.3%) standards focused on in-hospital care, across the immediate preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative phases. Section 3 included 59 (19.1%) standards about program management, including personnel and committee structure, credentialing, and education. Section 4 included 8 (2.6%) standards establishing overarching concepts for data collection and patient follow-up. Two hundred ninety of 308 standards (94.2%) were rated as feasible; 18 (5.8%) were rated as uncertain in feasibility. CONCLUSIONS: CQGS Stakeholders rated the vast majority of standards of care as highly valid (99%) and feasible (94%) for improving the quality of surgical care provided to older adults. Future work will focus on a pilot phase to better understand and address challenges to implementation of the standards.


Assuntos
Serviços de Saúde para Idosos/normas , Hospitais/normas , Assistência Perioperatória/normas , Melhoria de Qualidade/normas , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Operatórios/normas , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estudos de Viabilidade , Humanos , Indicadores de Qualidade em Assistência à Saúde , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Participação dos Interessados , Estados Unidos
7.
CA Cancer J Clin ; 61(6): 382-96, 2011.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21748730

RESUMO

Geisinger's ProvenCare™ Program (for elective coronary artery bypass surgery, total hip replacement, and others) has shown that the principles of reliability science, facilitated by a robust electronic health record and institutional commitment, allow the re-engineering of complicated clinical processes. This eliminates unwarranted variation and promotes the completion of evidence-based elements of care. It has not been established that ProvenCare can be generalized to other institutions. Now, under the auspices of the American College of Surgeons Commission on Cancer, ProvenCare has been adapted to a multi-institutional collaborative for the care of the patient with resectable lung cancer.


Assuntos
Prestação Integrada de Cuidados de Saúde/organização & administração , Neoplasias Pulmonares/cirurgia , Pneumonectomia , Melhoria de Qualidade , Auditoria Clínica , Prestação Integrada de Cuidados de Saúde/normas , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde , Prática Clínica Baseada em Evidências , Humanos , Comunicação Interdisciplinar , Neoplasias Pulmonares/patologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/terapia , Estadiamento de Neoplasias , Pennsylvania , Pneumonectomia/métodos , Cuidados Pós-Operatórios , Cuidados Pré-Operatórios , Desenvolvimento de Programas/métodos , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Análise de Sobrevida , Resultado do Tratamento
9.
Ann Surg Open ; 5(2): e439, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38911623

RESUMO

Mini abstract The financial benefits of instituting the American College of Surgeons Geriatric Surgery Verification Program far exceed the costs, with the added benefits of enhanced patient satisfaction and improved staff morale.

11.
Arch Gerontol Geriatr ; 112: 105024, 2023 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37060805

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The simplified frailty index (sFI) is a commonly used instrument to estimate postoperative risk, but its correlation with phenotypic frailty has been questioned. This study evaluates the relationship between sFI and phenotypic frailty, as measured by the Sinai Abbreviated Geriatric Evaluation (SAGE). METHODS: Charts were retrospectively reviewed from patients ≥75 years old who underwent surgery between 2012-2022. The sFI score was calculated by adding 1 point for hypertension, COPD, congestive heart failure, functional dependence, and diabetes (score 0-5). SAGE was calculated by adding 1 point for normal gait speed, normal Mini-Cog©, and independent activities of daily living (ADL) (0-3). Spearman rank correlation was used to test the relationship between sFI and SAGE. SAGE components were used as binary-dependent outcomes in covariate-adjusted logistic regression modeling to evaluate associations with sFI scores while adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: 334 patients were assessed, with a mean age of 84.0. SAGE and sFI scores were significantly associated, with a modest inverse relationship (r=-0.24, p<0.0001). Each 1-point increase in sFI score was associated with increased odds of ADL deficit (OR 2.3, 95%CI [1.5-3.8], p<0.0001) and abnormal gait speed (OR 1.9, 95%CI 1.2-3.0, p<0.01). The sFI score was not associated with deficits in the Mini-Cog (OR 1.5, 95%CI [0.96-2.3], p=0.07). CONCLUSION: Higher sFI was significantly associated with increased phenotypic frailty, particularly with the loss of physical condition and function but not associated with cognitive deficit. Therefore, sFI may not be an appropriate tool to estimate postoperative complications related to cognition, such as delirium risk.


Assuntos
Disfunção Cognitiva , Fragilidade , Humanos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Idoso Fragilizado , Atividades Cotidianas , Estudos Retrospectivos , Disfunção Cognitiva/complicações , Avaliação Geriátrica
12.
J Am Geriatr Soc ; 71(5): 1452-1461, 2023 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36721263

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Older surgical patients have an increased risk for postoperative complications, driving up healthcare costs. We determined if postoperative co-management of older surgery patients is associated with postoperative outcomes and hospital costs. METHODS: Retrospective data were collected for patients ≥70 years old undergoing colorectal surgery at a community teaching hospital. Patient outcomes were compared between those receiving postoperative surgery co-management care through the Optimization of Senior Care and Recovery (OSCAR) program and controls who received standard of care. Main outcome measures were postoperative complications and hospital charges, 30-day readmission rate, length of stay (LOS), and transfer to intensive care during hospitalization. Multivariable linear regression was used to model total charge and multivariable logistic regression to model complications, adjusted for multiple variables (e.g., age, sex, race, body mass index, Charlson Comorbidity Index [CCI], American Society of Anesthesiologists score, surgery duration). RESULTS: All 187 patients in the OSCAR and control groups had a similar mean CCI score of 2.7 (p = 0.95). Compared to the control group, OSCAR recipients experienced less postoperative delirium (17% vs. 8%; p = 0.05), cardiac arrhythmia (12% vs. 3%; p = 0.03), and clinical worsening requiring transfer to intensive care (20% vs. 6%; p < 0.005). OSCAR group patients had a shorter mean LOS among high-risk patients (CCI ≥3) (-1.8 days; p = 0.09) and those ≥80 years old (-2.3 days; p = 0.07) compared to the control group. Mean total hospital charge was $10,297 less per patient in the OSCAR group (p = 0.01), with $17,832 less per patient with CCI ≥3 (p = 0.01), than the control group. CONCLUSIONS: A co-management care approach after colorectal surgery in older patients improves outcomes and decreases costs, with the most benefit going to the oldest patients and those with higher comorbidity scores.


Assuntos
Cirurgia Colorretal , Humanos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Cuidados Pós-Operatórios , Estudos Retrospectivos , Tempo de Internação , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/etiologia
13.
J Am Coll Surg ; 237(2): 171-181, 2023 08 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37185633

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The American College of Surgeons (ACS) Coalition for Quality in Geriatric Surgery (CQGS) identified standards of surgical care for the growing, vulnerable population of aging adults in the US. The aims of this study were to determine implementation feasibility for 30 selected standards, identify barriers and best practices in their implementation, and further refine these geriatric standards and verification process. STUDY DESIGN: The CQGS requested participation from hospitals involved in the ACS NSQIP Geriatric Surgery Pilot Project, previous CQGS feasibility analyses, and hospitals affiliated with a core development team member. Thirty standards were selected for implementation. After implementation, site visits were conducted, and postvisit surveys were distributed. RESULTS: Eight hospitals were chosen to participate. Program management (55%), immediate preoperative and intraoperative clinical care (62.5%), and postoperative clinical care (58%) had the highest mean percentage of "fully compliant" standards. Goals and decision-making (30%), preoperative optimization (28%), and transitions of care (12.5%) had the lowest mean percentage of fully compliant standards. Best practices and barriers to implementation were identified across 13 of the 30 standards. More than 80% of the institutions reported that participation changed the surgical care provided for older adults. CONCLUSIONS: This study represents the first national implementation assessment undertaken by the ACS for one of its quality programs. The CQGS pilot testing was able to demonstrate implementation feasibility for 30 standards, identify challenges and best practices, and further inform dissemination of the ACS Geriatric Surgery Verification Program.


Assuntos
Melhoria de Qualidade , Cirurgiões , Humanos , Estados Unidos , Idoso , Projetos Piloto , Hospitais , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia
14.
Surgery ; 170(4): 1061-1065, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34059345

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Patients with Crohn's disease are particularly susceptible to preoperative frailty owing to the chronic nature of the illness and immunosuppressive therapy. The hypothesis in this study was that frailty would have a greater impact on postoperative outcome than age in older individuals with Crohn's disease. METHODS: Data were obtained from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) from the years 2012 to 2018. Patients with Crohn's disease who underwent a bowel resection were identified from diagnostic and procedure codes. Frailty was assessed using the 5-point Simplified Frailty Index (0-not frail, 5-most frail). Age was defined as an ordinal variable with 3 age ranges (18-64, 65-79, >80 years). Aggregate morbidity was classified according to the standard NSQIP definitions. Simplified Frailty Index was evaluated as a potential predictor of morbidity and mortality using covariate-adjusted logistic regression modeling. RESULTS: A total of 9,023 patients underwent bowel resection for Crohn's disease during the study period. Patient Simplified Frailty Index ranged from 0 to 3 (Simplified Frailty Index = 0, 82%; 1, 15%; 2, 2.5%; 3, 0.1%), and higher Simplified Frailty Index was associated with increased age (P < .01). In multivariate regression, a Simplified Frailty Index was significantly associated with postoperative morbidity (Simplified Frailty Index ≥ 2: odds ratio = 2.59, 95% confidence interval [1.84-3.63], P < .0001). In contrast, age was not found to be a significant predictor of morbidity when adjusted for Simplified Frailty Index and other covariates (P > .05). CONCLUSION: Frailty is a stronger predictor than age for morbidity in Crohn's-related bowel resection. Functional assessments and vulnerability screening should be used to determine surgical candidacy rather than age alone.


Assuntos
Doença de Crohn/cirurgia , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos do Sistema Digestório/efeitos adversos , Idoso Fragilizado/estatística & dados numéricos , Fragilidade/complicações , Avaliação Geriátrica/métodos , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Melhoria de Qualidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Doença de Crohn/complicações , Fragilidade/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Morbidade/tendências , Prognóstico , Fatores de Risco , Estados Unidos , Adulto Jovem
15.
J Am Geriatr Soc ; 69(7): 1856-1864, 2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33780000

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Discharging older individuals to rehabilitation facilities is associated with adverse outcomes, including readmission or increased mortality rate. As preoperative functional status is an important factor impacting patient outcome, we hypothesized that this would be associated with patient disposition to nonhome locations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed using data from the 2013-2018 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, including targeted variables from the Geriatric Pilot Project. Patients aged 65 and older in 33 institutions across the nation were included (n = 44,219). Preoperative functional status was categorized as independent, partially dependent, and dependent. The primary outcome was home versus nonhome disposition. Nonhome was defined as rehabilitation facility and nursing home. Descriptive analyses were performed. Variables associated with postoperative discharge to nonhome were identified using logistic regression. RESULTS: The largest percentage of operations was orthopedics (40.8%), followed by general surgery (29.2%) and vascular operations (10.0%). The majority of the patients were independent before operations (93.1% independent, 6% partially dependent, and 0.9% totally dependent). In regression analyses, patients who were partially dependent preoperatively had five times higher odds of discharging to nonhome, compared to patients who were independent (odds ratio [OR] 5.04, p < 0.01). Similarly, patients who were totally dependent had 3.2 higher odds of discharging to nonhome than patients who were independent (OR 3.22, p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Better preoperative functional status is associated with patient discharge to home in older adults. Preoperative interventions aimed at improving functional status, such as prehabilitation, may be beneficial in improving patient outcomes.


Assuntos
Estado Funcional , Instituição de Longa Permanência para Idosos/estatística & dados numéricos , Casas de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Alta do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Centros de Reabilitação/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Razão de Chances , Projetos Piloto , Período Pós-Operatório , Exercício Pré-Operatório , Período Pré-Operatório , Melhoria de Qualidade , Estudos Retrospectivos
16.
Thorac Surg Clin ; 30(1): 25-32, 2020 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31761281

RESUMO

Video-assisted thoracic surgery has considerably improved the care of the thoracic surgical patient. Patients are able to leave the hospital sooner and experience less pain with equal oncologic outcomes when compared with open surgery. Nonintubated thoracic surgery has more recently been applied in the management of both benign and malignant pleural effusions. This article provides the general thoracic surgeon a detailed description on how to manage pleural effusions using video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery in a nonintubated patient. Surgical techniques and pearls are also presented.


Assuntos
Administração dos Cuidados ao Paciente/métodos , Derrame Pleural , Cirurgia Torácica Vídeoassistida/métodos , Humanos , Derrame Pleural/etiologia , Derrame Pleural/cirurgia
20.
J Am Coll Surg ; 228(4): 627-633, 2019 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30630082

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The risk of colorectal cancer increases with age, and the number of older adults requiring operations has increased. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a current risk calculator can accurately predict operative mortality for rectal cancer and whether the predictive accuracy varied with age. METHODS: The American College of Surgeons NSQIP database using ICD-9/10 codes for rectal cancer and CPT codes for proctectomy was accessed (2012 to 2015). The prognostic value of the risk calculator was evaluated using the predicted mortality variable code. Age categories were 18 to 64 years, 65 to 79 years, and 80 to 89 years. Analysis of variance was performed to assess differences between age categories in predicted and actual mortality and Pearson correlation coefficients were computed. Logistic regression models were constructed to evaluate associations adjusted for key covariates. RESULTS: There were 9,289 patients included, with age distribution as follows: 18 to 64 years (n = 5,674), 65 to 79 years (n = 2,899), and 80 to 89 years (n = 716). Both predicted and actual mortality increased with age, adjusting for functional status, comorbidity, and other covariates (p < 0.0001). The overall correlation between predicted and actual mortality was low (r = 0.20). The correlation was weakest from 18 to 64 years (r = 0.07), strongest from 65 to 79 years (r = 0.25), and in between from 80 to 89 years (r = 0.13). Predicted mortality was overestimated in the 18 to 64 years and underestimated in both the 65 to 79 years and 80 to 89 years age groups. Predicted mortality by age category interaction terms was also significantly associated with actual mortality in covariate-adjusted logistic regression models, providing additional evidence that the accuracy of predicted mortality varies by age. CONCLUSIONS: The American College of Surgeons NSQIP mortality risk estimates appear to be poorly associated with actual mortality and the accuracy might differ between younger and older patients with primary rectal cancer. Goals of care discussion with the older patient about outcomes are indicated, as there is an almost twice predicted mortality.


Assuntos
Regras de Decisão Clínica , Protectomia/mortalidade , Neoplasias Retais/cirurgia , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias Retais/mortalidade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Adulto Jovem
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