Younger but sicker? Cohort trends in disease accumulation among middle-aged and older adults in Scotland using health-linked data from the Scottish Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom, rising prevalence of multimorbidity-the co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions- is coinciding with stagnation in life expectancy. We investigate patterns of disease accumulation and how they vary by birth cohort, social and environmental inequalities in Scotland, a country which has long suffered from excess mortality and poorer health outcomes relative to its neighbours. METHODS: Using a dataset which links census data from 1991, 2001 and 2011 to disease registers and hospitalization data, we follow cohorts of adults aged 30-69 years for 18 years. We model physical and mental disease accumulation using linear mixed-effects models. RESULTS: Recent cohorts experience higher levels of chronic disease accumulation compared to their predecessors at the same ages. Moreover, in more recently born cohorts we observe socioeconomic status disparities emerging earlier in the life course, which widen over time and with every successive cohort. Patterns of chronic conditions are also changing, and the most common diseases suffered by later born cohorts are cancer, hypertension, asthma, drug and alcohol problems and depression. CONCLUSION: We recommend policies which target prevention of chronic disease in working age adults, considering how and why certain conditions are becoming more prevalent across time and space.

Multimorbid life expectancy across race, socio-economic status, and sex in South Africa.

Multimorbidity is increasing globally as populations age. However, it is unclear how long individuals live with multimorbidity and how it varies by social and economic factors. We investigate this in South Africa, whose apartheid history further complicates race, socio-economic, and sex inequalities. We introduce the term 'multimorbid life expectancy' (MMLE) to describe the years lived with multimorbidity. Using data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (2008-17) and incidence-based multistate Markov modelling, we find that females experience higher MMLE than males (17.3 vs 9.8 years), and this disparity is consistent across all race and education groups. MMLE is highest among Asian/Indian people and the post-secondary educated relative to other groups and lowest among African people. These findings suggest there are associations between structural inequalities and MMLE, highlighting the need for health-system and educational policies to be implemented in a way proportional to each group's level of need.

Unravelling patient pathways in the context of antibacterial resistance in East Africa.

BACKGROUND: A key factor driving the development and maintenance of antibacterial resistance (ABR) is individuals' use of antibiotics (ABs) to treat illness. To better understand motivations and context for antibiotic use we use the concept of a patient treatment-seeking pathway: a treatment journey encompassing where patients go when they are unwell, what motivates their choices, and how they obtain antibiotics. This paper investigates patterns and determinants of patient treatment-seeking pathways, and how they intersect with AB use in East Africa, a region where ABR-attributable deaths are exceptionally high. METHODS: The Holistic Approach to Unravelling Antibacterial Resistance (HATUA) Consortium collected quantitative data from 6,827 adult outpatients presenting with urinary tract infection (UTI) symptoms in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda between February 2019- September 2020, and conducted qualitative in-depth patient interviews with a subset (n = 116). We described patterns of treatment-seeking visually using Sankey plots and explored explanations and motivations using mixed-methods. Using Bayesian hierarchical regression modelling, we investigated the associations between socio-demographic, economic, healthcare, and attitudinal factors and three factors related to ABR: self-treatment as a first step, having a multi-step treatment pathway, and consuming ABs. RESULTS: Although most patients (86%) sought help from medical facilities in the first instance, many (56%) described multi-step, repetitive treatment-seeking pathways, which further increased the likelihood of consuming ABs. Higher socio-economic status patients were more likely to consume ABs and have multi-step pathways. Reasons for choosing providers (e.g., cost, location, time) were conditioned by wider structural factors such as hybrid healthcare systems and AB availability. CONCLUSION: There is likely to be a reinforcing cycle between complex, repetitive treatment pathways, AB consumption and ABR. A focus on individual antibiotic use as the key intervention point in this cycle ignores the contextual challenges patients face when treatment seeking, which include inadequate access to diagnostics, perceived inefficient public healthcare and ease of purchasing antibiotics without prescription. Pluralistic healthcare landscapes may promote more complex treatment seeking and therefore inappropriate AB use. We recommend further attention to healthcare system factors, focussing on medical facilities (e.g., accessible diagnostics, patient-doctor interactions, information flows), and community AB access points (e.g., drug sellers).

Prodrugs of PKC modulators show enhanced HIV latency reversal and an expanded therapeutic window.

AIDS is a pandemic disease caused by HIV that affects 37 million people worldwide. Current antiretroviral therapy slows disease progression but does not eliminate latently infected cells, which resupply active virus, thus necessitating lifelong treatment with associated compliance, cost, and chemoexposure issues. Latency-reversing agents (LRAs) activate these cells, allowing for their potential clearance, thus presenting a strategy to eradicate the infection. Protein kinase C (PKC) modulators-including prostratin, ingenol esters, bryostatin, and their analogs-are potent LRAs in various stages of development for several clinical indications. While LRAs are promising, a major challenge associated with their clinical use is sustaining therapeutically meaningful levels of the active agent while minimizing side effects. Here we describe a strategy to address this problem based on LRA prodrugs, designed for controllable release of the active LRA after a single injection. As intended, these prodrugs exhibit comparable or superior in vitro activity relative to the parent compounds. Selected compounds induced higher in vivo expression of CD69, an activation biomarker, and, by releasing free agent over time, significantly improved tolerability when compared to the parent LRAs. More generally, selected prodrugs of PKC modulators avoid the bolus toxicities of the parent drug and exhibit greater efficacy and expanded tolerability, thereby addressing a longstanding objective for many clinical applications.

Health outcomes of only children across the life course: An investigation using Swedish register data.

Only children (with no full biological siblings) are a growing subgroup in many high-income settings. Previous studies have largely focused on the short-term developmental outcomes of only children, but there is limited evidence on their health outcomes. Using Swedish population register data for cohorts born 1940-75, we compare the health of only children with that of children from multi-child sibling groups, taking into account birth order, family size, and presence of half-siblings. Only children showed lower height and fitness scores, were more likely to be overweight/obese in late adolescence, and experienced higher later-life mortality than those with one or two siblings. However, only children without half-siblings were consistently healthier than those with half-siblings, suggesting that parental disruption confers additional disadvantages. The health disadvantage was attenuated but not fully explained by adjustment for parental characteristics and after using within-family maternal cousin comparison designs.

Treatment of missing data in Bayesian network structure learning: an application to linked biomedical and social survey data.

BACKGROUND: Availability of linked biomedical and social science data has risen dramatically in past decades, facilitating holistic and systems-based analyses. Among these, Bayesian networks have great potential to tackle complex interdisciplinary problems, because they can easily model inter-relations between variables. They work by encoding conditional independence relationships discovered via advanced inference algorithms. One challenge is dealing with missing data, ubiquitous in survey or biomedical datasets. Missing data is rarely addressed in an advanced way in Bayesian networks; the most common approach is to discard all samples containing missing measurements. This can lead to biased estimates. Here, we examine how Bayesian network structure learning can incorporate missing data. METHODS: We use a simulation approach to compare a commonly used method in frequentist statistics, multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE), with one specific for Bayesian network learning, structural expectation-maximization (SEM). We simulate multiple incomplete categorical (discrete) data sets with different missingness mechanisms, variable numbers, data amount, and missingness proportions. We evaluate performance of MICE and SEM in capturing network structure. We then apply SEM combined with community analysis to a real-world dataset of linked biomedical and social data to investigate associations between socio-demographic factors and multiple chronic conditions in the US elderly population. RESULTS: We find that applying either method (MICE or SEM) provides better structure recovery than doing nothing, and SEM in general outperforms MICE. This finding is robust across missingness mechanisms, variable numbers, data amount and missingness proportions. We also find that imputed data from SEM is more accurate than from MICE. Our real-world application recovers known inter-relationships among socio-demographic factors and common multimorbidities. This network analysis also highlights potential areas of investigation, such as links between cancer and cognitive impairment and disconnect between self-assessed memory decline and standard cognitive impairment measurement. CONCLUSION: Our simulation results suggest taking advantage of the additional information provided by network structure during SEM improves the performance of Bayesian networks; this might be especially useful for social science and other interdisciplinary analyses. Our case study show that comorbidities of different diseases interact with each other and are closely associated with socio-demographic factors.

Genetic association and transcriptome integration identify contributing genes and tissues at cystic fibrosis modifier loci.

Cystic Fibrosis (CF) exhibits morbidity in several organs, including progressive lung disease in all patients and intestinal obstruction at birth (meconium ileus) in ~15%. Individuals with the same causal CFTR mutations show variable disease presentation which is partly attributed to modifier genes. With >6,500 participants from the International CF Gene Modifier Consortium, genome-wide association investigation identified a new modifier locus for meconium ileus encompassing ATP12A on chromosome 13 (min p = 3.83x10(-10)); replicated loci encompassing SLC6A14 on chromosome X and SLC26A9 on chromosome 1, (min p<2.2x10(-16), 2.81x10(-11), respectively); and replicated a suggestive locus on chromosome 7 near PRSS1 (min p = 2.55x10(-7)). PRSS1 is exclusively expressed in the exocrine pancreas and was previously associated with non-CF pancreatitis with functional characterization demonstrating impact on PRSS1 gene expression. We thus asked whether the other meconium ileus modifier loci impact gene expression and in which organ. We developed and applied a colocalization framework called the Simple Sum (SS) that integrates regulatory and genetic association information, and also contrasts colocalization evidence across tissues or genes. The associated modifier loci colocalized with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) for ATP12A (p = 3.35x10(-8)), SLC6A14 (p = 1.12x10(-10)) and SLC26A9 (p = 4.48x10(-5)) in the pancreas, even though meconium ileus manifests in the intestine. The meconium ileus susceptibility locus on chromosome X appeared shifted in location from a previously identified locus for CF lung disease severity. Using the SS we integrated the lung disease association locus with eQTLs from nasal epithelia of 63 CF participants and demonstrated evidence of colocalization with airway-specific regulation of SLC6A14 (p = 2.3x10(-4)). Cystic Fibrosis is realizing the promise of personalized medicine, and identification of the contributing organ and understanding of tissue specificity for a gene modifier is essential for the next phase of personalizing therapeutic strategies.

Cystic fibrosis-related diabetes onset can be predicted using biomarkers measured at birth.

PURPOSE: Cystic fibrosis (CF), caused by pathogenic variants in the CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR), affects multiple organs including the exocrine pancreas, which is a causal contributor to cystic fibrosis-related diabetes (CFRD). Untreated CFRD causes increased CF-related mortality whereas early detection can improve outcomes. METHODS: Using genetic and easily accessible clinical measures available at birth, we constructed a CFRD prediction model using the Canadian CF Gene Modifier Study (CGS; n = 1,958) and validated it in the French CF Gene Modifier Study (FGMS; n = 1,003). We investigated genetic variants shown to associate with CF disease severity across multiple organs in genome-wide association studies. RESULTS: The strongest predictors included sex, CFTR severity score, and several genetic variants including one annotated to PRSS1, which encodes cationic trypsinogen. The final model defined in the CGS shows excellent agreement when validated on the FGMS, and the risk classifier shows slightly better performance at predicting CFRD risk later in life in both studies. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated clinical utility by comparing CFRD prevalence rates between the top 10% of individuals with the highest risk and the bottom 10% with the lowest risk. A web-based application was developed to provide practitioners with patient-specific CFRD risk to guide CFRD monitoring and treatment.

Immunoreactive trypsinogen levels in newborn screened infants with an inconclusive diagnosis of cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Newborn screening (NBS) for cystic fibrosis (CF) not only identifies infants with a diagnosis of CF, but also those with an uncertain diagnosis of cystic fibrosis (CF), i.e. CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR)-related metabolic syndrome (CRMS) or CF screen positive inconclusive diagnosis (CFSPID). These infants have an uncertain long-term outcome and it is currently unclear around time of diagnosis, which infants are at higher risk of later fulfilling a CF diagnosis. In this study, we hypothesised that immunoreactive trypsinogen (IRT) levels, used in NBS as a marker of pancreatic disease and function, may reflect the degree of CFTR dysfunction in each individual and therefore would help to identify those with CRMS/CSPID who are later at risk for meeting the criteria of CF. METHODS: In this longitudinal, prospective study, infants with CRMS/CFSPID and CF were recruited and followed in 9 CF clinics (Canada and Italy). We compared NBS IRT levels between CF and CRMS/CFSPID, and between children with CRMS/CFSPID→CF and CRMS/CFSPID→CRMS/CFSPID during the period of June 2007 to April 2016. RESULTS: Ninety eight CRMS/CFSPID and 120 CF subjects were enrolled. During the study period, 14 (14.3%) CRMS/CFSPID subjects fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for CF (CRMS/CFSPID→CF), while the diagnosis remained uncertain (CRMS/CFSPID→ CRMS/CFSPID) in 84 (85.7%) subjects. Significantly higher NBS IRT concentrations (ng/ml) were present in CF than CRMS/CFPSID (median (interquartile range): 143.8 (99.8-206.2) vs. 75.0 (61.0-105.9); P < 0.0001). Infants with CRMS/CFSPID→CF (n = 14) had significantly higher NBS IRT concentrations (ng/ml) than CRMS/CFSPID→ CRMS/CFSPID (n = 83) (median (interquartile range): 108.9 (72.3-126.8) vs. 73.7(60.0-96.0); P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Amongst infants who tested positive on NBS for CF, there is a gradation of elevated NBS IRT concentrations. Infants with CF have higher NBS IRT levels than CRMS/CFPSID, and higher NBS IRT concentrations were present in infants with CRMS/CFSPID→CF than CRMS/CFSPID→ CRMS/CFSPID. NBS IRT concentrations, in concert with other factors, may have the potential to predict the likelihood of CF amongst infants with CRMS/CFSPID.

Cystic fibrosis gene modifier SLC26A9 modulates airway response to CFTR-directed therapeutics.

Cystic fibrosis is realizing the promise of personalized medicine. Recent advances in drug development that target the causal CFTR directly result in lung function improvement, but variability in response is demanding better prediction of outcomes to improve management decisions. The genetic modifier SLC26A9 contributes to disease severity in the CF pancreas and intestine at birth and here we assess its relationship with disease severity and therapeutic response in the airways. SLC26A9 association with lung disease was assessed in individuals from the Canadian and French CF Gene Modifier consortia with CFTR-gating mutations and in those homozygous for the common Phe508del mutation. Variability in response to a CFTR-directed therapy attributed to SLC26A9 genotype was assessed in Canadian patients with gating mutations. A primary airway model system determined if SLC26A9 shows modification of Phe508del CFTR function upon treatment with a CFTR corrector. In those with gating mutations that retain cell surface-localized CFTR we show that SLC26A9 modifies lung function while this is not the case in individuals homozygous for Phe508del where cell surface expression is lacking. Treatment response to ivacaftor, which aims to improve CFTR-channel opening probability in patients with gating mutations, shows substantial variability in response, 28% of which can be explained by rs7512462 in SLC26A9 (P = 0.0006). When homozygous Phe508del primary bronchial cells are treated to restore surface CFTR, SLC26A9 likewise modifies treatment response (P = 0.02). Our findings indicate that SLC26A9 airway modification requires CFTR at the cell surface, and that a common variant in SLC26A9 may predict response to CFTR-directed therapeutics.

Medical Abortion Provision by Pharmacies and Drug Sellers in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review.

We undertook a systematic review to assess 1) the level and quality of pharmacy and drug shop provision of medical abortion (MA) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and 2) interventions to improve quality of provision. We used standardized terms to search six databases for peer-reviewed and grey literature. We double-extracted data using a standardized template, and double-graded studies for methodological quality. We identified 22 studies from 16 countries reporting on level and quality of MA provision through pharmacies and drug sellers, and three intervention studies. Despite widespread awareness and provision of MA drugs, even in legally restricted contexts, most studies found that pharmacy workers and drug sellers had poor knowledge of effective regimens. Evidence on interventions to improve pharmacy and drug shop provision of MA was limited and generally low quality, but indicated that training could be effective in improving knowledge. Programmatic attention should focus on the development and rigorous evaluation of innovative interventions to improve women's access to information about MA self-management in low-and middle-income countries.

Psychosocial Response to Uncertain Newborn Screening Results for Cystic Fibrosis.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the psychosocial implications of diagnostic uncertainty that result from inconclusive results generated by newborn bloodspot screening (NBS) for cystic fibrosis (CF). STUDY DESIGN: Using a mixed methods prospective cohort study of children who received NBS for CF, we compared psychosocial outcomes of parents whose children who received persistently inconclusive results with those whose children received true positive or screen-negative results. RESULTS: Mothers of infants who received inconclusive results (n = 17), diagnoses of CF (n = 15), and screen-negative results (n = 411) were surveyed; 23 parent interviews were completed. Compared with mothers of infants with true positive/screen-negative results, mothers of infants with inconclusive results reported greater perceived uncertainty (P < .006) but no differences in anxiety or vulnerability (P > .05). Qualitatively, parents valued being connected to experts but struggled with the meaning of an uncertain diagnosis, worried about their infant's health-related vulnerability, and had mixed views about surveillance. CONCLUSION: Inconclusive CF NBS results were not associated with anxiety or vulnerability but led to health-related uncertainty and qualitative concerns. Findings should be considered alongside efforts to optimize protocols for CF screening and surveillance. Educational and psychosocial supports are warranted for these families.

Prevalence of meconium ileus marks the severity of mutations of the Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane Conductance Regulator (CFTR) gene.

RATIONALE: Meconium ileus (MI) is a perinatal complication in cystic fibrosis (CF), which is only minimally influenced by environmental factors. We derived and examined MI prevalence (MIP) scores to assess CFTR phenotype-phenotype correlation for severe mutations. METHOD: MIP scores were established using a Canadian CF population (n = 2,492) as estimates of the proportion of patients with MI among all patients carrying the same CFTR mutation, focusing on patients with p.F508del as the second allele. Comparisons were made to the registries from the US CF Foundation (n = 43,432), Italy (Veneto/Trentino/Alto Adige regions) (n = 1,788), and Germany (n = 3,596). RESULTS: The prevalence of MI varied among the different registries (13-21%). MI was predominantly prevalent in patients with pancreatic insufficiency carrying "severe" CFTR mutations. In this severe spectrum MIP scores further distinguished between mutation types, for example, G542X (0.31) with a high, F508del (0.22) with a moderate, and G551D (0.08) with a low MIP score. Higher MIP scores were associated with more severe clinical phenotypes, such as a lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second (P = 0.01) and body mass index z score (P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: MIP scores can be used to rank CFTR mutations according to their clinical severity and provide a means to expand delineation of CF phenotypes.Genet Med 18 4, 333-340.

Unraveling the complex genetic model for cystic fibrosis: pleiotropic effects of modifier genes on early cystic fibrosis-related morbidities.

The existence of pleiotropy in disorders with multi-organ involvement can suggest therapeutic targets that could ameliorate overall disease severity. Here we assessed pleiotropy of modifier genes in cystic fibrosis (CF). CF, caused by mutations in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene, affects the lungs, liver, pancreas and intestines. However, modifier genes contribute to variable disease severity across affected organs, even in individuals with the same CFTR genotype. We sought to determine whether SLC26A9, SLC9A3 and SLC6A14, that contribute to meconium ileus in CF, are pleiotropic for other early-affecting CF co-morbidities. In the Canadian CF population, we assessed evidence for pleiotropic effects on (1) pediatric lung disease severity (n = 815), (2) age at first acquisition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa (P. aeruginosa) (n = 730), and (3) prenatal pancreatic damage measured by immunoreactive trypsinogen (n = 126). A multiple-phenotype analytic strategy assessed evidence for pleiotropy in the presence of phenotypic correlation. We required the same alleles to be associated with detrimental effects. SLC26A9 was pleiotropic for meconium ileus and pancreatic damage (p = 0.002 at rs7512462), SLC9A3 for meconium ileus and lung disease (p = 1.5 × 10(-6) at rs17563161), and SLC6A14 for meconium ileus and both lung disease and age at first P. aeruginosa infection (p = 0.0002 and p = 0.006 at rs3788766, respectively). The meconium ileus risk alleles in SLC26A9, SLC9A3 and SLC6A14 are pleiotropic, increasing risk for other early CF co-morbidities. Furthermore, co-morbidities affecting the same organ tended to associate with the same genes. The existence of pleiotropy within this single disorder suggests that complementary therapeutic strategies to augment solute transport will benefit multiple CF-associated tissues.

The impact of alcohol consumption on patterns of union formation in Russia 1998-2010: an assessment using longitudinal data.

Using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, 1998-2010, we investigated the extent to which patterns of alcohol consumption in Russia are associated with the subsequent likelihood of entry into cohabitation and marriage. Using discrete-time event history analysis we estimated for 16-50 year olds the extent to which the probabilities of entry into the two types of union were affected by the amount of alcohol drunk and the pattern of drinking, adjusted to allow for social and demographic factors including income, employment, and health. The results show that individuals who did not drink alcohol were less likely to embark on either cohabitation or marriage, that frequent consumption of alcohol was associated with a greater chance of entering unmarried cohabitation than of entering into a marriage, and that heavy drinkers were less likely to convert their relationship from cohabitation to marriage.

Inequalities in disability-free and disabling multimorbid life expectancy in Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To better understand variations in multimorbidity severity over time, we estimate disability-free and disabling multimorbid life expectancy (MMLE), comparing Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States. We also assess MMLE inequalities by sex and education. METHODS: Data come from the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging (2005-2009), the Mexican Health and Aging Study (2012-2018), and the Health and Retirement Study (2004-2018). We apply an incidence-based multistate Markov approach to estimate disability-free and disabling MMLE and stratify models by sex and education to study within-country heterogeneity. Multimorbidity is defined as a count of two or more chronic diseases. Disability is defined using limitations in activities of daily living. RESULTS: Costa Ricans have the lowest MMLE, followed by Mexicans, then individuals from the US. Individuals from the US spend about twice as long with disability-free multimorbidity compared with individuals from Costa Rica or Mexico. Females generally have longer MMLE than males, with particularly stark differences in disabling MMLE. In the US, higher education was associated with longer disability-free MMLE and shorter disabling MMLE. We identified evidence for cumulative disadvantage in Mexico and the US, where sex differences in MMLE were larger among the lower educated. DISCUSSION: Substantial sex and educational inequalities in MMLE exist within and between these countries. Estimating disability-free and disabling MMLE reveals another layer of health inequality not captured when examining disability and multimorbidity separately. MMLE is a flexible population health measure that can be used to better understand the aging process across contexts.

Treatment seeking and antibiotic use for urinary tract infection symptoms in the time of COVID-19 in Tanzania and Uganda.

Background: There is still little empirical evidence on how the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and associated regulations may have disrupted care-seeking for non-COVID-19 conditions or affected antibiotic behaviours in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to investigate the differences in treatment-seeking behaviours and antibiotic use for urinary tract infection (UTI)-like symptoms before and during the pandemic at recruitment sites in two East African countries with different COVID-19 control policies: Mbarara, Uganda and Mwanza, Tanzania. Methods: In this repeated cross-sectional study, we used data from outpatients (pregnant adolescents aged >14 and adults aged >18) with UTI-like symptoms who visited health facilities in Mwanza, Tanzania and Mbarara, Uganda. We assessed the prevalence of self-reported behaviours (delays in care-seeking, providers visited, antibiotics taken) at three different time points, labelled as 'pre-COVID-19 phase' (February 2019 to February 2020), 'COVID-19 phase 1' (March 2020 to April 2020), and 'COVID-19 phase 2' (July 2021 to February 2022). Results: In both study sites, delays in care-seeking were less common during the pandemic than they were in the pre-COVID phase. Patients in Mwanza, Tanzania had shorter care-seeking pathways during the pandemic compared to before it, but this difference was not observed in Mbarara, Uganda. Health centres were the dominant sources of antibiotics in both settings. Over time, reported antibiotic use for UTI-like symptoms became more common in both settings. During the COVID-19 phases, there was a significant increase in self-reported use of antibiotics like metronidazole (<30% in the pre-COVID-19 phase to 40% in COVID phase 2) and doxycycline (30% in the pre-COVID-19 phase to 55% in COVID phase 2) that were not recommended for treating UTI-like symptoms in the National Treatment Guidelines in Mbarara, Uganda. Conclusions: There was no clear evidence that patients with UTI-like symptoms attending health care facilities had longer or more complex treatment pathways despite strict government-led interventions related to COVID-19. However, antibiotic use increased over time, including some antibiotics not recommended for treating UTI, which has implications for future antimicrobial resistance.

Predominance of multidrug-resistant bacteria causing urinary tract infections among symptomatic patients in East Africa: a call for action.

Background: In low- and middle-income countries, antibiotics are often prescribed for patients with symptoms of urinary tract infections (UTIs) without microbiological confirmation. Inappropriate antibiotic use can contribute to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and the selection of MDR bacteria. Data on antibiotic susceptibility of cultured bacteria are important in drafting empirical treatment guidelines and monitoring resistance trends, which can prevent the spread of AMR. In East Africa, antibiotic susceptibility data are sparse. To fill the gap, this study reports common microorganisms and their susceptibility patterns isolated from patients with UTI-like symptoms in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Within each country, patients were recruited from three sites that were sociodemographically distinct and representative of different populations. Methods: UTI was defined by the presence of >104 cfu/mL of one or two uropathogens in mid-stream urine samples. Identification of microorganisms was done using biochemical methods. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed by the Kirby-Bauer disc diffusion assay. MDR bacteria were defined as isolates resistant to at least one agent in three or more classes of antimicrobial agents. Results: Microbiologically confirmed UTI was observed in 2653 (35.0%) of the 7583 patients studied. The predominant bacteria were Escherichia coli (37.0%), Staphylococcus spp. (26.3%), Klebsiella spp. (5.8%) and Enterococcus spp. (5.5%). E. coli contributed 982 of the isolates, with an MDR proportion of 52.2%. Staphylococcus spp. contributed 697 of the isolates, with an MDR rate of 60.3%. The overall proportion of MDR bacteria (n = 1153) was 50.9%. Conclusions: MDR bacteria are common causes of UTI in patients attending healthcare centres in East African countries, which emphasizes the need for investment in laboratory culture capacity and diagnostic algorithms to improve accuracy of diagnosis that will lead to appropriate antibiotic use to prevent and control AMR.

Treatment seeking behaviours, antibiotic use and relationships to multi-drug resistance: A study of urinary tract infection patients in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.

Antibacterial resistance (ABR) is a major public health threat. An important accelerating factor is treatment-seeking behaviour, including inappropriate antibiotic (AB) use. In many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) this includes taking ABs with and without prescription sourced from various providers, including health facilities and community drug sellers. However, investigations of complex treatment-seeking, AB use and drug resistance in LMICs are scarce. The Holistic Approach to Unravel Antibacterial Resistance in East Africa (HATUA) Consortium collected questionnaire and microbiological data from adult outpatients with urinary tract infection (UTI)-like symptoms presenting at healthcare facilities in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Using data from 6,388 patients, we analysed patterns of self-reported treatment seeking behaviours ('patient pathways') using process mining and single-channel sequence analysis. Among those with microbiologically confirmed UTI (n = 1,946), we used logistic regression to assess the relationship between treatment seeking behaviour, AB use, and the likelihood of having a multi-drug resistant (MDR) UTI. The most common treatment pathway for UTI-like symptoms in this sample involved attending health facilities, rather than other providers like drug sellers. Patients from sites in Tanzania and Uganda, where over 50% of patients had an MDR UTI, were more likely to report treatment failures, and have repeat visits to providers than those from Kenyan sites, where MDR UTI proportions were lower (33%). There was no strong or consistent relationship between individual AB use and likelihood of MDR UTI, after accounting for country context. The results highlight the hurdles East African patients face in accessing effective UTI care. These challenges are exacerbated by high rates of MDR UTI, suggesting a vicious cycle of failed treatment attempts and sustained selection for drug resistance. Whilst individual AB use may contribute to the risk of MDR UTI, our data show that factors related to context are stronger drivers of variations in ABR.