Parenchymal lung abnormalities following hospitalisation for COVID-19 and viral pneumonitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Persisting respiratory symptoms in COVID-19 survivors may be related to development of pulmonary fibrosis. We assessed the proportion of chest CT scans and pulmonary function tests consistent with parenchymal lung disease in the follow-up of people hospitalised with COVID-19 and viral pneumonitis. METHODS: Systematic review and random effects meta-analysis of proportions using studies of adults hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV or influenza pneumonia and followed up within 12 months. Searches performed in MEDLINE and Embase. Primary outcomes were proportion of radiological sequelae on CT scans; restrictive impairment; impaired gas transfer. Heterogeneity was explored in meta-regression. RESULTS: Ninety-five studies (98.9% observational) were included in qualitative synthesis, 70 were suitable for meta-analysis including 60 SARS-CoV-2 studies with a median follow-up of 3 months. In SARS-CoV-2, the overall estimated proportion of inflammatory sequelae was 50% during follow-up (0.50; 95% CI 0.41 to 0.58; I2=95%), fibrotic sequelae were estimated in 29% (0.29; 95% CI 0.22 to 0.37; I2=94.1%). Follow-up time was significantly associated with estimates of inflammatory sequelae (-0.036; 95% CI -0.068 to -0.004; p=0.029), associations with fibrotic sequelae did not reach significance (-0.021; 95% CI -0.051 to 0.009; p=0.176). Impaired gas transfer was estimated at 38% of lung function tests (0.38 95% CI 0.32 to 0.44; I2=92.1%), which was greater than restrictive impairment (0.17; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.23; I2=92.5%), neither were associated with follow-up time (p=0.207; p=0.864). DISCUSSION: Sequelae consistent with parenchymal lung disease were observed following COVID-19 and other viral pneumonitis. Estimates should be interpreted with caution due to high heterogeneity, differences in study casemix and initial severity. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020183139.

Three-Month FVC Change: A Trial Endpoint for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Based on Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis.

Rationale: Novel therapies for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) are in development, but there remains uncertainty about the optimal trial endpoint. An earlier endpoint would enable assessment of a greater number of therapies in adaptive trial designs. Objectives: To determine whether short-term changes in FVC, DlCO, and six-minute-walk distance could act as surrogate endpoints to accelerate early-phase trials in IPF. Methods: Individual participant data (IPD) from IPF clinical trials were included in a two-step random-effects meta-analysis to determine whether baseline or 3-month changes in FVC, DlCO, and 6-minute-walk distance were associated with mortality or disease progression in placebo arms. Three-month and 12-month FVC decline endpoints were compared with treatment arm data from antifibrotic studies by meta-regression. Measurements and Main Results: IPD were available from 12 placebo cohorts totaling 1,819 participants, with baseline and 3-month changes in all physiological variables independently associated with poorer outcomes. Treatment data were available from six cohorts with 1,684 participants. For each 2.5% relative decline in FVC over 3 months, there was an associated 15% (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.24; I2 = 59.4%) and 20% (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.12-1.28; I2 = 18.0%) increased risk for mortality in untreated and treated individuals, respectively. An FVC change treatment effect was observed between treatment and placebo arms at 3 months (difference in FVC change of 42.9 ml; 95% CI, 24.0-61.8 ml; P < 0.001). Conclusions: IPD meta-analysis demonstrated that 3-month changes in physiological variables, particularly FVC, were associated with mortality among individuals with IPF. FVC change over 3 months may hold potential as a surrogate endpoint in IPF adaptive trials.

A systematic review of blood biomarkers with individual participant data meta-analysis of matrix metalloproteinase-7 in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Blood-derived biomarkers have been described extensively as potential prognostic markers in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but studies have been limited by analyses using data-dependent thresholds, inconsistent adjustment for confounders and an array of end-points, thus often yielding ungeneralisable results. Meta-analysis of individual participant data (IPD) is a powerful tool to overcome these limitations. Through systematic review of blood-derived biomarkers, sufficient studies with measurements of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-7 were identified to facilitate standardised analyses of the prognostic potential of this biomarker in IPF. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched on 12 November 2020 to identify prospective studies reporting outcomes in patients with untreated IPF, stratified according to at least one pre-specified biomarker, measured at either baseline, or change over 3 months. IPD were sought for studies investigating MMP-7 as a prognostic factor. The primary outcome was overall mortality according to standardised MMP-7 z-scores, with a secondary outcome of disease progression in 12 months, all adjusted for age, gender, smoking and baseline forced vital capacity. RESULTS: IPD was available for nine studies out of 12 identified, reporting outcomes from 1664 participants. Baseline MMP-7 levels were associated with increased mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.03-1.48; I2=64.3%) and disease progression (adjusted OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.11-1.46; I2=5.9%). In limited studies, 3-month change in MMP-7 was not associated with outcomes. CONCLUSION: IPD meta-analysis demonstrated that greater baseline MMP-7 levels were independently associated with an increased risk of poor outcomes in patients with untreated IPF, while short-term changes did not reflect disease progression.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of anakinra, sarilumab, siltuximab and tocilizumab for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: There is accumulating evidence for an overly activated immune response in severe COVID-19, with several studies exploring the therapeutic role of immunomodulation. Through systematic review and meta-analysis, we assess the effectiveness of specific interleukin inhibitors for the treatment of COVID-19. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched on 7 January 2021 to identify studies of immunomodulatory agents (anakinra, sarilumab, siltuximab and tocilizumab) for the treatment of COVID-19. The primary outcomes were severity on an Ordinal Scale measured at day 15 from intervention and days to hospital discharge. Key secondary endpoints included overall mortality. RESULTS: 71 studies totalling 22 058 patients were included, 6 were randomised trials. Most studies explored outcomes in patients who received tocilizumab (60/71). In prospective studies, tocilizumab was associated with improved unadjusted survival (risk ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.96, I2=0.0%), but conclusive benefit was not demonstrated for other outcomes. In retrospective studies, tocilizumab was associated with less severe outcomes on an Ordinal Scale (generalised OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.64, I2=98%) and adjusted mortality risk (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.66, I2=76.6%). The mean difference in duration of hospitalisation was 0.36 days (95% CI -0.07 to 0.80, I2=93.8%). There was substantial heterogeneity in retrospective studies, and estimates should be interpreted cautiously. Other immunomodulatory agents showed similar effects to tocilizumab, but insufficient data precluded meta-analysis by agent. CONCLUSION: Tocilizumab was associated with a lower relative risk of mortality in prospective studies, but effects were inconclusive for other outcomes. Current evidence for the efficacy of anakinra, siltuximab or sarilumab in COVID-19 is insufficient, with further studies urgently needed for conclusive findings. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020176375.