Risk factors for acute human brucellosis in Ijara, north-eastern Kenya.

Brucellosis is an important zoonotic disease globally, with particularly high burdens in pastoral settings. While the zoonotic transmission routes for Brucella spp. are well known, the relative importance of animal contact, food-handling and consumption practices can vary. Understanding the local epidemiology of human brucellosis is important for directing veterinary and public health interventions, as well as for informing clinical diagnostic decision making. We conducted a cross-sectional study in Ijara District Hospital, north-eastern Kenya. A total of 386 individuals seeking care and reporting symptoms of febrile illness were recruited in 2011. Samples were tested for the presence of Brucella spp. using a real-time PCR (RT-PCR) and results compared to those from the test for brucellosis used at Ijara District Hospital, the febrile Brucella plate agglutination test (FBAT). A questionnaire was administered to all participants and risk factors for brucellosis identified using logistic regression with an information theoretic (IT) approach and least absolute shrinkage and selection (LASSO). Sixty individuals were RT-PCR positive, resulting in a prevalence of probable brucellosis of 15.4% (95% CI 12.0-19.5). The IT and LASSO approaches both identified consuming purchased milk as strongly associated with elevated risk and boiling milk before consumption strongly associated with reduced risk. There was no evidence that livestock keepers were at different risk of brucellosis than non-livestock keepers. The FBAT had poor diagnostic performance when compared to RT-PCR, with an estimated sensitivity of 36.6% (95% CI 24.6-50.1) and specificity of 69.3% (95% CI 64.0-74.3). Brucellosis is an important cause of febrile illness in north-eastern Kenya. Promotion of pasteurisation of milk in the marketing chain and health messages encouraging the boiling of raw milk before consumption could be expected to lead to large reductions in the incidence of brucellosis in Ijara. This study supports the growing evidence that the FBAT performs very poorly in the diagnosis of brucellosis.

Mapping Potential Amplification and Transmission Hotspots for MERS-CoV, Kenya.

Dromedary camels have been implicated consistently as the source of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) human infections and attention to prevent and control it has focused on camels. To understanding the epidemiological role of camels in the transmission of MERS-CoV, we utilized an iterative empirical process in Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify and qualify potential hotspots for maintenance and circulation of MERS-CoV, and produced risk-based surveillance sites in Kenya. Data on camel population and distribution were used to develop camel density map, while camel farming system was defined using multi-factorial criteria including the agro-ecological zones (AEZs), production and marketing practices. Primary and secondary MERS-CoV seroprevalence data from specific sites were analyzed, and location-based prevalence matching with camel densities was conducted. High-risk convergence points (migration zones, trade routes, camel markets, slaughter slabs) were profiled and frequent cross-border camel movement mapped. Results showed that high camel-dense areas and interaction (markets and migration zones) were potential hotspot for transmission and spread. Cross-border contacts occurred with in-migrated herds at hotspot locations. AEZ differential did not influence risk distribution and plausible risk factors for spatial MERS-CoV hotspots were camel densities, previous cases of MERS-CoV, high seroprevalence and points of camel convergences. Although Kenyan camels are predisposed to MERS-CoV, no shedding is documented to date. These potential hotspots, determined using anthropogenic, system and trade characterizations should guide selection of sampling/surveillance sites, high-risk locations, critical areas for interventions and policy development in Kenya, as well as instigate further virological examination of camels.