Hepatitis C virus-infected kidney waitlist patients: Treat now or treat later?

Currently many but not all centers transplant hepatitis C virus (HCV) viremic positive (+) donor kidneys into HCV+ recipients. Directed donation of HCV+ organs reduces the wait time to transplantation for HCV+ patients. Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy can cure HCV in virtually all who are infected. Some have suggested that treatment of HCV+ waitlisted patients be deferred with the hope that earlier transplantation will provide better outcomes than early DAA therapy. However, there are not enough organs to guarantee prompt transplantation for the current waitlist of infected candidates. A Markov medical decision analysis model was created to compare the overall outcomes of delayed DAA therapy (Option 1) to immediate DAA therapy (Option 2) in waitlisted HCV+ patients. Option 1 patients were modeled to be transplanted 1 year earlier, with a higher cumulative transplant incidence (54% at 5 years post-listing vs 45% for Option 2). Despite this, Option 2 provided 0.43 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38-0.49) more life years than Option 1. However, Option 1 was preferred for regions with much greater access to HCV+ organs or in patients with very low HCV+-associated mortality. The best option from an individual patient's perspective will differ by region and candidate.

De Novo Donor-Specific Human Leukocyte Antigen Antibody Screening in Kidney Transplant Recipients After the First Year Posttransplantation: A Medical Decision Analysis.

Screening for de novo donor-specific antibodies (dnDSA) in stable kidney transplant recipients is routine practice in some centers. Patients with DSA are at increased risk of graft loss and early intervention may improve outcomes. However, the costs and benefits of dnDSA surveillance are unknown. A medical decision analysis to examine a screening strategy was developed for kidney transplant recipients who had stable graft function and were DSA negative 1 year posttransplant. In the base case, a modest 25% reduction in graft loss in dnDSA-positive patients treated with increased immunosuppression resulted in 0.04618 quality-adjusted years (QALYs) gained. However, benefits from reduced graft loss were eliminated if there was a small increased risk of death from added therapy. The incremental cost effectiveness was marginal at approximately $120 000-250 000 per QALY, but could be more or less favorable depending on several key variables such as efficacy of treatment, screening costs, incidence rate of subclinical dnDSA, and patient survival. Screening performed the best in patients with lower mortality rates and higher baseline incidence rates of dnDSA. Further study is warranted to gather the necessary high-quality evidence to justify screening.

Donor-Recipient Matching in Kidney Transplant: We're Not There Yet.

BACKGROUND: Strategic organ allocation is expected to prolong patient and graft survival after transplant. This study explored differences in graft survival when kidneys are allocated based on strategic donor-recipient (D-R) pairing vs with the existing Kidney Allocation System (KAS). METHODS: Using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients from 2000 to 2014, we used a multivariable Cox model to assess the hazard ratios (HRs) for death or graft failure among 3 hypothetical donor kidneys transplanted into 3 hypothetical recipients, relative to an ideally matched D-R pair. Median predicted survival for each of the 9 possible D-R pairing combinations was determined, and outcomes for strategic D-R pairing were compared with those obtained using the KAS for allocation. RESULTS: A total of 31,607 patients (29.7%) died or developed graft loss over the study period. Strategic allocation of kidneys resulted in HRs for graft loss of 1.74 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41-2.14), 1.82 (95% CI, 1.46-2.26), and 1.74 (95% CI 1.38-2.19) for recipients 1, 2 and 3 respectively, whereas by following the KAS, HRs were 1.93 (95%, CI 1.63-2.28), 2.06 (95% CI, 1.74-2.44), and 1.93 (95% CI, 1.58-2.37); corresponding to 3.84, 11.39, and 7.40 months longer predicted patient or graft survival for recipients 1, 2 and 3 with strategic D-R pairing compared with the KAS. CONCLUSIONS: Allocation of kidneys by strategic D-R pairing may improve graft survival relative to allocation using the KAS.

Screening to prevent polyoma virus nephropathy in kidney transplantation: a cost analysis.

Polyoma virus nephropathy is an important cause of graft dysfunction in kidney transplant recipients and screening to prevent disease has been advocated. Although screening incurs new costs, our hypothesis is that savings from less immunosuppression in those with positive screening tests could pay for overall costs of screening. In 134 consecutive recipients, polyoma virus (positive decoy cells) was detected in the urine of 34 (25.4%) individuals over a 2-year follow-up. Of these 34, 11 had a plasma BK PCR of >7700 copies/mL. Immunosuppression was reduced stepwise in these patients until viral loads fell <1000/mL. Overall screening costs (including extra plasma PCR testing) were estimated at $33,450. Those with positive PCR had greater reductions in annual immunosuppression costs by year 2 ($6452 vs. $2799, p = 0.0015) compared to those with negative screens. At the end of the 2-year period, 61% of the screening costs were covered by less immunosuppressant costs. At the end of 30 months there were net savings. In summary, reductions in immunosuppression cover the cost of screening for polyoma viral infection. Longer-term follow-up is needed to ensure patient outcomes remain acceptable.

Cancer mortality in kidney transplantation.

Immunosuppression is associated with an increased risk of cancer in kidney transplant recipients compared to the general population. It is less clear whether standardized cancer mortality ratios (SMRs) are also increased. This study's hypothesis is that SMRs are not increased because of competing risks of death. During the median follow-up of 5.05 years (Q1-Q3: 2.36-8.62), there were 1937 cancer deaths and 36 619 noncancer deaths among 164 078 first kidney-only transplant recipients captured in the United States Renal Data System between January 1990 and December 2004. The observed cancer death rate was 206 per 100 000 patient-years compared to an expected rate of 215 per 100,000 patient-years in the general population. The overall age- and sex-adjusted SMR was only 0.96 (95% CI 0.92-1.00). However, patients <50 years had SMRs significantly greater than unity while patients >60 had SMRs lower than unity. Up to 25% of cancer-related deaths occurred after allograft failure. These findings challenge the notion that cancer is a major cause of premature death in all kidney transplant recipients and has implications for design of cancer prevention strategies in kidney transplant recipients.

Outcome of the acute glomerular injury in proliferative lupus nephritis.

Treatment with total lymphoid irradiation (TLI) and corticosteroids markedly reduced activity of systemic lupus erythematosis in 10 patients with diffuse proliferative lupus nephritis (DPLN) complicated by a nephrotic syndrome. Physiologic and morphometric techniques were used serially before, and 12 and 36 mo post-TLI to characterize the course of glomerular injury. Judged by a progressive reduction in the density of glomerular cells and immune deposits, glomerular inflammation subsided. A sustained reduction in the fractional clearance of albumin, IgG and uncharged dextrans of radius greater than 50 A, pointed to a parallel improvement in glomerular barrier size-selectivity. Corresponding changes in GFR were modest, however. A trend towards higher GFR at 12 mo was associated with a marked increase in the fraction of glomerular tuft area occupied by patent capillary loops as inflammatory changes receded. A late trend toward declining GFR beyond 12 mo was associated with progressive glomerulosclerosis, which affected 57% of all glomeruli globally by 36 mo post-TLI. Judged by a parallel increase in volume by 59%, remaining, patent glomeruli had undergone a process of adaptive enlargement. We propose that an increasing fraction of glomeruli continues to undergo progressive sclerosis after DPLN has become quiescent, and that the prevailing GFR depends on the extent to which hypertrophied remnant glomeruli can compensate for the ensuing loss of filtration surface area.

MDR1 C3435T polymorphisms correlate with cyclosporine levels in de novo renal recipients.

BACKGROUND: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the multidrug resistance (MDR1) gene correlate with the intestinal function of P-glycoprotein (PGP). PGP serves as a hydrophobic export pump that extrudes cyclosporine (CsA) across the luminal membrane thus preventing CsA absorption. These genetic variants may predict CsA exposure levels in the early posttransplantation period. METHODS: CsA absorption profiles were established in 75 renal transplant patients using total daily dose and body weight adjusted 4-hour area under the time-concentration curve, AUC(0-4)/mg dose/kg body weight, on posttransplant day 3. These patients were subsequently genotyped for C3435T and G2677T polymorphisms using real-time polymerase chain reaction. An analysis was conducted to assess the independent impact of C3435T and G2677T SNPs on CsA bioavailability. RESULTS: C3435T polymorphisms were found to be an independent predictor of CsA AUC(0-4)/mg dose/kg levels on postoperative day 3. An inverse correlation was found between the number of T alleles and AUC values such that every T allele was associated with an approximate 15% decrement in AUC(0-4)/mg dose/kg (P = .034). A similar nonsignificant trend was observed for G2677T polymorphisms. CONCLUSIONS: MDR1 SNPs are correlated with CsA exposure in the early post-transplant period. Polymorphisms, in conjunction with other criteria, may become a useful tool to optimize initial drug dosing in renal transplantation.

Treatment of hypercholesterolemia with ezetimibe in the kidney transplant population.

BACKGROUND: Given the high incidence of lipid abnormalities, high burden of cardiovascular disease, and high proportion who do not achieve target levels despite therapy in the kidney transplant population, additional lipid lowering strategies are needed. METHODS: This was a nonrandomized, open-label, single-cohort evaluation of ezetimibe, a novel cholesterol absorption inhibitor, in 40 stable kidney transplant recipients with hypercholesterolemia. RESULTS: After 4 weeks of therapy total and LDL cholesterol were reduced by 23 +/- 13% (P < .0001) and 33 +/- 15% (P < .0001), respectively. The drug was equally effective in patients on cyclosporine (19), tacrolimus (13), or sirolimus (8), but more effective (P = .0006) when used in combination with a statin (41 +/- 13% reduction in LDL, n = 22) compared with monotherapy (24% +/- 13%, n = 18). There were no significant effects on serum creatinine, drug levels, body weight, or liver function tests. CONCLUSIONS: Ezetimibe is an effective LDL cholesterol-lowering agent in the kidney transplant population. Further studies are warranted in a larger population not only to examine the extent of cardiovascular risk reduction but also to detect unwarranted toxicity.

Impact of mycophenolate mofetil loading on drug exposure in the early posttransplant period.

UNLABELLED: Achieving adequate therapeutic levels of immunosuppressive medications is important in rejection prevention. This study examined exposure to mycophenolic acid (MPA) in kidney transplant patients within the first 5 days posttransplantation. METHODS: This single-center, nonrandomized study of first solitary kidney allograft recipients receiving cyclosporine (n = 116) or tacrolimus (n = 50) included patients who received either 1 g or 1.5 g of mycophenolate mofetil twice daily starting postoperatively. Exposure to MPA was measured at days 3 and 5 posttransplant using published limited sampling time equations. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in exposure in the cyclosporine-treated patients receiving 3-g (n = 22) compared to 2-g (n = 94) daily doses (AUC([0-12]) 33.8 +/- 10.0 mg*h/L versus 30.1 +/- 9.7 mg*h/L, P = .20, respectively). About half the patients in both groups had AUC([0-12]) <30 mg*h/L on days 3 and 5 posttransplant. On the other hand, there was significantly greater exposure on day 3 in the tacrolimus-treated patients receiving 3 g (n = 21) compared to 2 g (n = 29) daily (AUC([0-12]) 43.1 +/- 9.0 mg*h/L versus 36.8 +/- 11.1 mg*h/L, P = .016, respectively). On day 3 one (4.8%) patient receiving 3 g had an AUC([0-12]) of <30 mg*h/L; whereas, eight (27.5%) receiving 2 g were below this level (P = .068). The AUC([0-12]) levels were not different on day 5. CONCLUSIONS: Loading with higher doses of mycophenolate mofetil results in greater exposure and a trend toward more patients in the therapeutic window within the first week for tacrolimus- but not for cyclosporine-treated patients.

Cyclosporine-induced renal dysfunction in human renal allograft recipients.

Cyclosporine-treated renal allograft recipients frequently suffer CsA-related nephrotoxicity and hypertension. This study demonstrates that glomerular filtration rate is reduced acutely by 13% (P less than 0.02) and renal vascular resistance increased by 30% (P less than 0.05), immediately after patients take their CsA dose. The reduction in GFR is directly related to their trough CsA level (r = 0.82; P less than 0.01). The lower the trough CsA level the greater the fall in GFR after the CsA dose. Plasma renin activity does not increase after the CsA dose (pre-CsA 0.6 +/- 0.2 ng/L/sec vs. post-CsA 0.4 +/- 0.1 ng/L/sec; P = NS), and therefore cannot be responsible for the reduction in renal function. Short-term nifedipine treatment is effective in preventing the acute reduction in GFR (P less than 0.05). This occurred despite no apparent effect of nifedipine in altering trough or post-dose CsA levels. Furthermore nifedipine was effective in lowering both the mean arterial blood pressure (109 mmHg to 94 mmHg; P less than 0.01) and the elevated renal vascular resistance (25% reduction; P less than 0.02) observed in these patients. These results suggest that nifedipine may be a suitable agent for limiting acute CsA nephrotoxicity and for treating CsA-associated hypertension in renal allograft recipients.

Should hepatitis C-infected kidneys be transplanted in the United States?

Over the past several years, the issue of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in renal transplantation has generated considerable interest. With the availability of a test for HCV, some but not all physicians have advocated that all HCV-infected kidneys be discarded. An economic appraisal was carried out to examine 3 theoretical policies of organ allocation for HCV-infected kidneys: (a) discard all infected kidneys, (b) transplant infected kidneys into infected donors only, or (c) transplant regardless of HCV status. Using probabilities, costs, and patient outcomes from the literature/best estimate, a cost-utility analysis was performed. Patients free of infection transplanted with an infected organ were assigned higher treatment costs and poorer outcomes compared with all other combinations. Assuming a potential to transplant 8100 kidneys per year, option A was predicted to produce the fewest total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incur the highest costs (largely due to patients left on dialysis). Option B was projected to produce the most QALYs, whereas option C incurred the lowest costs (no need to screen for HCV). The incremental cost utility of option B over C was $13,954 (present value 1990)/QALY. This economic appraisal suggests that transplanting HCV-infected kidneys into infected recipients is superior to a discard policy from both a cost and patient outcome perspective. However, other overriding factors, such as the ethical dilemma of transplanting an infected organ, must be addressed by both physician and patient/public before a consensus can be reached.

Estimating the benefits of solitary pancreas transplantation in nonuremic patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus: a theoretical analysis.

BACKGROUND: The goal of early pancreas transplantation in type 1 diabetes mellitus is to achieve euglycemia and thereby prevent the renal, retinal, and vascular complications of this disease. The purpose of this analysis was to examine the conditions and assumptions that would make early solitary pancreas a viable therapeutic option. METHODS: A Markov model was constructed to compare outcomes for patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus and early overt nephropathy assigned to either standard insulin therapy or solitary pancreas transplantation. Probabilities for development of end stage renal disease (ESRD), blindness, mortality, and direct health care costs were taken from the literature. Utility scores for the relevant health states were determined by the standard gamble method on 16 type 1 diabetic patients suitable for pancreas transplantation. RESULTS: Assuming a baseline graft life expectancy for the pancreas of 10 years, early pancreas transplantation could provide 0.42 more life years and 2.2 more quality adjusted life years (discounted at 3%) to patients above standard insulin therapy. The model was sensitive to estimates of pancreas graft life expectancy (<8 years being inadequate to extend patient life), timing of pancreas transplantation with respect to rate of progression to ESRD, and drug nephrotoxicity rates. The incremental costs (charges) for early pancreas transplantation over standard therapy were estimated to be modestly high (about $56,600/quality adjusted life year for the baseline case). Pancreas transplant costs were also a very sensitive parameter in the cost utility analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The success of early solitary pancreas transplantation may well be at the stage to consider a trial in selected type 1 diabetic patients at risk for renal and retinal disease.

Routine treatment of insulin-dependent diabetic patients with ACE inhibitors to prevent renal failure: an economic evaluation.

The objective of this study was to determine how effective angiotensin-converting enzymes (ACEs) must be in preventing diabetic nephropathy to warrant routine administration to insulin-dependent diabetic patients. A Markov model was used to compare three strategies designed to prevent the development of end-stage renal disease in insulin-dependent diabetic patients. Strategy I, screening for microalbuminuria and treatment of incipient nephropathy as currently recommended, was compared with strategy II, a protocol in which patients were routinely administered an ACE inhibitor 5 years after diagnosis of diabetes, and strategy III, in which patients at high risk for nephropathy were routinely treated and low-risk patients followed a protocol in which patients were treated with an ACE inhibitor if they developed hypertension and/or macroproteinuria. The model predicted that strategy II would produce as many quality-adjusted life-years as strategy I at nearly the same cost if routine drug therapy reduced the rate of development of microalbuminuria by 26% in all patients. Strategy III produced as many quality-adjusted life-years at less cost than strategy I if a high-risk cohort could be identified with a rate of developing microalbuminuria at four times the rate of low-risk patients and if drug therapy reduced the rate of developing microalbuminuria in this high-risk group by 20%. In conclusion, routine ACE inhibitor therapy could prove to be cost-effective, especially if high-risk individuals could be identified. A prospective trial examining this goal should be considered.

Cardiac risk factors and the use of cardioprotective medications in patients with chronic renal insufficiency.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with chronic renal insufficiency (CRI). beta-Adrenergic blockers, acetylsalicylic acid (ASA), angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, and 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statins) all reduce CVD mortality, but little is known about the extent to which these medications are used in patients with CRI. This study, a prospective cross-sectional study of consecutive patients seen by nephrologists in four Canadian centers for follow-up of progressive CRI in 1999, was performed to investigate the prevalence of coronary risk factors and use of cardioprotective medications among patients with CRI. Patients had creatinine clearances of 75 mL/min or less but were not on dialysis therapy. Three hundred four consecutive patients meeting the inclusion criteria were enrolled. Mean age was 60.8 +/- 15.7 years, mean creatinine clearance was 30.3 +/- 18 mL/min, and the case mix of kidney diseases was similar to that in the Canadian Organ Replacement Registry data. One hundred seventeen of 304 patients (38.5%) had a history of previous CVD, and the prevalence of CVD was greater in patients with more severe CRI. Two hundred forty-three patients (79.9%) had a history of hypertension, 132 patients (43.4%) had hyperlipidemia, 114 patients (37.5%) had diabetes mellitus, and 71 patients (27.3%) were smokers. Thirty-five percent of the patients with CVD had blood pressures greater than 140/90 mm Hg; 103 patients (33.9%) were administered beta-blockers; 196 patients (64.5%), ACE inhibitors or angiotensin-receptor blockers; 83 patients (27.3%), ASA; and 56 patients (18.4%), statins. Patients with diabetes were not more likely than those without diabetes to be prescribed cardioprotective medications. CVD is common in the predialysis population, and its prevalence increases with more severe kidney failure. Despite this, the use of cardioprotective medications is relatively low, and many patients had suboptimal blood pressure control. Given the high burden of disease in these patients, beta-blockers and ACE inhibitors should be used to control hypertension and/or for cardioprotection, and the increased use of ASA and statins should be considered.

Should all Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes mellitus be prescribed routine angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition therapy to prevent renal failure?

OBJECTIVE: To determine how effective angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors must be in preventing diabetic nephropathy to warrant early and routine therapy in all Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes mellitus. DESIGN: A computerized medical decision analysis model was used to compare strategy 1, screening for microalbuminuria and treatment of incipient nephropathy as currently recommended with ACE inhibitor therapy, with strategy 2, a protocol wherein all patients were routinely administered an ACE inhibitor 1 year after diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The model assumed that ACE inhibitors can block, at least in part, the pathogenic mechanisms responsible for early diabetic nephropathy (microalbuminuria). RESULTS: The model predicted that strategy 2 would produce more life-years at less cost than strategy 1, if routine drug therapy reduced the rate of development of microalbuminuria by 21% in all patients. Only a 9% reduction in the rate of development of microalbuminuria was cost-effective at $15,000 per additional life-year gained, and only a 2.4% reduction was cost-effective at $75,000 per additional life-year gained for strategy 2 over strategy 1. CONCLUSIONS: Routine ACE inhibitor therapy in Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes mellitus could prove more effective and even cost saving than the currently recommended approach of microalbuminuria screening. A prospective trial examining this goal should be considered.

Importance of peak PRA in predicting the kidney transplant survival in highly sensitized patients.

Do patients with high historic peak panel-reactive antibodies (PRA) remain high risk if their PRA levels fall before transplantation? We examined retrospectively 406 first and repeat kidney recipients with a peak PRA of >50%, who were transplanted from our center between January 1990 and December 2001. Univariate analysis by log-rank test was performed for variables that affect graft survival. The factors tested included current PRA, peak PRA, difference between peak and current PRA (DeltaPRA), HLA mismatch, gender, age, transplant number, and donor source. Receiver operator characteristic curves (ROC) were generated to obtain the best cutpoints for current PRA and DeltaPRA. Current PRA (P < .0001), peak PRA (P = .0004), and DeltaPRA (P = .0015) were significant predictors by univariate analysis. However, in a multivariate model, peak PRA was not significant. Current PRA (P < .0001) was significantly associated with graft survival, while DeltaPRA showed a strong trend to significance (P = .05). Current PRA of <26% and DeltaPRA of >37% were the best cutpoints for separating good and poor outcomes. This study shows that current PRA and DeltaPRA impact on graft survival in highly sensitized (>50%) patients. Sensitized patients with peak PRA >50% who subsequently have a drop in PRA to <26% are at lower risk of graft loss than those with a persistently high PRA. A fall in peak PRA of >37% at the time of transplant appears to be of benefit only in those patients who achieve a current PRA of <26%.

Nursing attitudes towards organ donation, procurement, and transplantation.

This survey was carried out to examine the attitudes of nurses towards organ donation, transplantation, and procurement from the perspective of their nursing unit affiliation in a tertiary care center. Overall, 62% of nurses have already signed an organ donor card or driver's license. Those nurses willing to donate, compared with those not willing to donate, perceive renal transplants as cost effective (90% vs 38%, p less than 0.001) and successful (66% vs 47%, p less than 0.001, for estimated cadaver 1 year success rate). Nurses from some units (i.e., renal dialysis nurses), perceiving renal transplantation as being cost effective and successful, were more likely to personally report signing organ donor cards or driver's license. On the other hand, nurses from other units (i.e., the operating room) perceiving lower cost effectiveness and lower renal transplant success rates were, as a group, significantly less likely to sign organ donor cards or driver's license. Across the nursing units surveyed, both perceived transplant success and support for procurement correlated with the percent of nurses who have already signed organ donor cards/license (r = 0.94, p less than 0.02). We suspect that the nursing environment and the exposure to follow-up information on transplantation greatly influences personal attitudes towards donation. Efforts must be directed from the medical staff and within nursing to correct these shortcomings in order that all units may participate fully in the procurement-transplantation process.

Cardiovascular risk reduction in renal transplantation. Strategies for success.

One of the aims of transplantation is to restore the potential for a full life to individuals with ESRD. To obtain this strategies that allow better and longer allograft function and a reduction in adverse events that lead to premature death are required. To this end, the recommendations below showed reduce cardiovascular disease and help present and future transplant recipients live a full life. Focusing on traditional risk factors (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, discontinuation of smoking, and prevention and treatment of diabetes mellitus) in patients at risk and striving for the recommended targets will have the greatest clinical benefit. These strategies should begin in the pre-dialysis and dialysis phases in order to reduce the cumulative burden of disease. Failing this, early and hopefully pre-emptive transplantation should be the goal.

Screening to prevent renal failure in insulin dependent diabetic patients: an economic evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the conditions necessary to make screening for microalbuminuria in patients with insulin dependent diabetes mellitus cost effective. DESIGN: This economic evaluation compared two strategies designed to prevent the development of end stage renal disease in patients with insulin dependent diabetes with disease for five years. Strategy A, screening for microalbuminuria as currently recommended, was compared with strategy B, a protocol in which patients were screened for hypertension and macroproteinuria. INTERVENTION: Patients identified in both strategies were treated with an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. SETTING: Computer simulation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Strategy costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). RESULTS: The model predicted that strategy A would produce an additional 0.00967 QALYs at a present value cost of $261.53 (1990 US$) per patient (or an incremental cost/QALY of $27,041.69) over strategy B. The incremental cost/QALY for strategy A over B was sensitive to several variables. If the positive predictive value of screening for microalbuminuria (impact of false label and unnecessary treatment) is < 0.72, the effect of treatment to delay progression from microalbuminuria to macroproteinuria is < 1.6 years, the cumulative incidence of diabetic nephropathy falls to < 20%, or > 64% of patients demonstrate hypertension at the onset of microalbuminuria, then the incremental costs/QALY will exceed $75,000. CONCLUSION: Whether microalbuminuria surveillance in this population is cost effective requires more information. Being aware of the costs, recommendation pitfalls, and gaps in our knowledge should help focus our efforts to provide cost effective care to this population.