Benchmarking clinical risk prediction algorithms with ensemble machine learning for the non-invasive diagnosis of liver fibrosis in NAFLD.

Ensemble machine learning methods, like the superlearner, combine multiple models into a single one to enhance predictive accuracy. Here we explore the potential of the superlearner as a benchmarking tool for clinical risk prediction, illustrating the approach in identifying significant liver fibrosis among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We used 23 demographic/clinical variables to train superlearner(s) on data from the NASH-CRN observational study (n=648) and validated models with data from the FLINT trial (n=270) and NHANES participants with NAFLD (n=1244). Comparing the superlearner's performance to existing models (FIB-4, NFS, Forns, APRI, BARD, and SAFE), it exhibited strong discriminative ability in the FLINT and NHANES validation sets, with AUCs of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73-0.84) and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.68-0.79) respectively. Notably, the SAFE score performed similarly to the superlearner, both of which outperformed FIB-4, APRI, Forns, and BARD scores in the validation datasets. Surprisingly, the superlearner derived from 12 base models matched the performance of one with 90 base models. Overall, the superlearner, being the "best-in-class" ML predictor, excelled in detecting fibrotic NASH, and this approach can be used to benchmark the performance of conventional clinical risk prediction models.

Chronic hepatitis B baseline viral load and on-treatment liver cancer risk: A multinational cohort study of HBeAg-positive patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A single-nation study reported that pretreatment HBV viral load is associated with on-treatment risk of HCC in patients who are HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B initiating antiviral treatment. We aimed to validate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in a larger, multinational cohort. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Using a multinational cohort from Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan involving 7545 adult patients with HBeAg-positive, without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir treatment with baseline HBV viral load ≥5.00 log 10 IU/mL, HCC risk was estimated by baseline viral load. HBV viral load was analyzed as a categorical variable. During continuous antiviral treatment (median, 4.28 y), HCC developed in 200 patients (incidence rate, 0.61 per 100 person-years). Baseline HBV DNA level was independently associated with on-treatment HCC risk in a nonlinear pattern. HCC risk was lowest with the highest baseline viral load (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL; incidence rate, 0.10 per 100 person-years), but increased sharply as baseline viral load decreased. The adjusted HCC risk was 8.05 times higher (95% CI, 3.34-19.35) with baseline viral load ≥6.00 and <7.00 log 10 IU/mL (incidence rate, 1.38 per 100 person-years) compared with high (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL) baseline viral load ( p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a multinational cohort of adult patients with HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B, baseline HBV viral load was significantly associated with HCC risk despite antiviral treatment. Patients with the highest viral load who initiated treatment had the lowest long-term risk of HCC development.

The suggestion of mitigating disparity in the liver transplantation field among ABO blood type.

Medical literature highlights differences in liver transplantation (LT) waitlist experiences among ABO blood types. Type AB candidates reportedly have higher LT rates and reduced mortality. Despite liver offering guidelines, ABO disparities persist. This study examines LT access discrepancies among blood types, focusing on type AB, and seeks equitable strategies. Using the United Network for Organ Sharing database (2003-2022), 170 276 waitlist candidates were retrospectively analyzed. Dual predictive analyses (LT opportunity and survival studies) evaluated 1-year recipient pool survival, considering waitlist and post-LT survival, alongside anticipated allocation value per recipient, under 6 scenarios. Of the cohort, 97 670 patients (57.2%) underwent LT. Type AB recipients had the highest LT rate (73.7% vs 55.2% for O), shortest median waiting time (90 vs 198 days for A), and lowest waitlist mortality (12.9% vs 23.9% for O), with the lowest median model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score (20 vs 25 for A/O). The LT opportunity study revealed that reallocating type A (or A and O) donors originally for AB recipients to A recipients yielded the greatest reduction in disparities in anticipated value per recipient, from 0.19 (before modification) to 0.08. Meanwhile, the survival study showed that ABO-identical LTs reduced disparity the most (3.5% to 2.8%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed these findings were specific to the MELD-Na score < 30 population, indicating current LT allocation may favor certain blood types. Prioritizing ABO-identical LTs for MELD-Na score < 30 recipients could ensure uniform survival outcomes and mitigate disparities.

OPTN/SRTR 2022 Annual Data Report: Liver.

In 2022, liver transplant activity continued to increase in the United States, with an all-time high of 9,527 transplants performed, representing a 52% increase over the past decade (2012-2022). Of these transplants, 8,924 (93.7%) were from deceased donors and 603 (6.3%) were from living donors. Liver transplant recipients were 94.5% adult and 5.5% pediatric. The overall size of the liver transplant waiting list contracted, with more patients being removed than added, although 10,548 adult patients still remained on the waiting list at the end of 2022. Alcohol-associated liver disease continued to be the leading diagnosis among both candidates and recipients, followed by metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis. Simultaneous liver-kidney transplant was the most common multiorgan combination, with 800 liver-kidney transplants performed in 2022; in addition, there were 303 new listings for kidney transplant via the safety net mechanism. Among adults added to the liver waiting list in 2021, 39.9% received a deceased donor liver transplant within 3 months; 45.7%, within 6 months; and 54.5%, within 1 year. Pretransplant mortality decreased to 12.3 deaths per 100 patient-years in 2022, although still 15.6% of removals from the waiting list were for death or being too sick for transplant. Graft and patient survival outcomes after deceased donor liver transplant improved, approximating pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels, with 5.1% mortality observed at 6 months; 6.8%, at 1 year; 12.7%, at 3 years; 19.8%, at 5 years; and 35.7%, at 10 years. Five-year graft and patient survival rates after living donor liver transplant exceeded those of deceased donor liver transplant. Candidates receiving model for end-stage liver disease exception points for hepatocellular carcinoma constituted 15.5% of transplants performed in 2022, with similar transplant rates and posttransplant outcomes compared to cases without hepatocellular carcinoma exception. In 2022, more pediatric liver transplant candidates were added to the waiting list and underwent transplant compared with either of the preceding 2 years, with an uptick in living donor liver transplant volume. Although pretransplant mortality has improved after the recent policy change prioritizing pediatric donors for pediatric recipients, still, in 2022, 50 children died or were removed from the waiting list for being too sick to undergo transplant. Posttransplant mortality among pediatric liver transplant recipients remained notable, with death occurring in 4.0% at 6 months, 6.0% at 1 year, 8.2% at 3 years, 9.8% at 5 years, and 13.9% at 10 years. Similar to adult living donor recipients, pediatric living donor recipients had better 5-year patient survival compared with deceased donor recipients.

Continuous Risk Score Predicts Waitlist & Post-Transplant Outcomes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Despite Exception Changes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Continuous risk stratification of candidates and urgency-based prioritization have been utilized for liver transplantation (LT) in non-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients in the United States. Instead, for HCC patients, a dichotomous criterion with exception points is still used. This study evaluated the utility of the hazard associated with LT for HCC (HALT-HCC), an oncological continuous risk score, to stratify waitlist dropout and post-LT outcomes. METHODS: A competing risk model was developed and validated using the UNOS database (2012-2021) through multiple policy changes. The primary outcome was to assess the discrimination ability of waitlist dropouts and LT outcomes. The study focused on the HALT-HCC score, compared to other HCC risk scores. RESULTS: Among 23,858 candidates, 14,646 (59.9%) underwent LT and 5,196 (21.8%) dropped out of the waitlist. Higher HALT-HCC scores correlated with increased dropout incidence and lower predicted five-year overall survival after LT. HALT-HCC demonstrated the highest AUC values for predicting dropout at various intervals post-listing (0.68 at six months, 0.66 at one year), with excellent calibration (R2=0.95 at six months, 0.88 at one year). Its accuracy remained stable across policy periods and locoregional therapy applications. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the predictive capability of the continuous oncological risk score to forecast waitlist dropout and post-LT outcomes in HCC patients, independent of policy changes. The study advocates integrating continuous scoring systems like HALT-HCC in liver allocation decisions, balancing urgency, organ utility, and survival benefit.

Enhancing the usability of older DCD donors through strategic approaches in liver transplantation in the United States.

The use of older donors after circulatory death (DCD) for liver transplantation (LT) has increased over the past decade. This study examined whether outcomes of LT using older DCD (≥50 y) have improved with advancements in surgical/perioperative care and normothermic machine perfusion (NMP) technology. A total of 7602 DCD LT cases from the United Network for Organ Sharing database (2003-2022) were reviewed. The impact of older DCD donors on graft survival was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier and HR analyses. In all, 1447 LT cases (19.0%) involved older DCD donors. Although there was a decrease in their use from 2003 to 2014, a resurgence was noted after 2015 and reached 21.9% of all LTs in the last 4 years (2019-2022). Initially, 90-day and 1-year graft survivals for older DCDs were worse than younger DCDs, but this difference decreased over time and there was no statistical difference after 2015. Similarly, HRs for graft loss in older DCD have recently become insignificant. In older DCD LT, NMP usage has increased recently, especially in cases with extended donor-recipient distances, while the median time from asystole to aortic cross-clamp has decreased. Multivariable Cox regression analyses revealed that in the early phase, asystole to cross-clamp time had the highest HR for graft loss in older DCD LT without NMP, while in the later phases, the cold ischemic time (>5.5 h) was a significant predictor. LT outcomes using older DCD donors have become comparable to those from young DCD donors, with recent HRs for graft loss becoming insignificant. The strategic approach in the recent period could mitigate risks, including managing cold ischemic time (≤5.5 h), reducing asystole to cross-clamp time, and adopting NMP for longer distances. Optimal use of older DCD donors may alleviate the donor shortage.

Mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease above model for end-stage liver disease 3.0 of 40.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Since the implementation of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score to determine waitlist priority for liver transplant (LT) in 2002, the score has been capped at 40. Recently, the MELD 3.0 score was proposed to improve upon MELD-Na. Here, we examine waitlist mortality and LT outcomes in patients with MELD 3.0 ≥ 40 to assess the potential impact of uncapping the score. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Adult waitlist registrations for LT from January 2016 to December 2021 were identified in the registry data from the Organ Procurement and Transplant Network. All MELD 3.0 scores were calculated at registration and thereafter. Waitlist mortality for up to 30 days was calculated as well as post-LT survival. There were 54,060 new waitlist registrations during the study period, of whom 2820 (5.2%) had MELD 3.0 ≥ 40 at listing. The 30-day waitlist mortality was high in these patients, yet it increased further in proportion with MELD 3.0 up to a score of 55 with 30-day mortality of 58.3% for MELD 3.0 of 40-44 and 82.4% for ≥50. The multivariable hazard ratio was 1.13 for each point of MELD 3.0, adjusting for several variables including acute-on-chronic liver failure. The number of LT recipients with MELD 40 at transplant increased from 155 in 2002 to 752 in 2021. Posttransplant survival was comparable across MELD strata including MELD of 35-39. CONCLUSION: MELD 3.0 scores beyond 40 are associated with increasing waitlist mortality without adversely affecting posttransplant outcome. Uncapping the MELD score in waitlist candidates may lead to greater survival benefit from LT.

MELD 3.0 for adolescent liver transplant candidates.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Adolescents constitute a unique waitlist cohort that is distinct from younger children. Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0, which was developed in an adult population of liver transplant candidates, is planned to replace MELD-Sodium in the current liver allocation system for both adults and adolescents aged 12-17. We evaluated the predictive performance of MELD-Sodium, MELD 3.0, and Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease for 90-day waitlist mortality risk among adolescent liver transplant registrants. APPROACH AND RESULTS: New waitlist registrations for primary liver transplants among individuals aged 12-17 and 18-25 for comparison were identified using Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) data from November 17, 2004, to December 31, 2021. The predictive performance of the current and proposed MELD and Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease scores was assessed using Harrell's concordance ( c ) statistic. There were 1238 eligible listings for adolescents aged 12-17 and 1740 young adults aged 18-25. In the adolescent group, 90-day survival was 97.8%, compared with 95.9% in those aged 18-25 (log-rank p = 0.005), with no significant differences when stratified by sex or indication. Among adolescents, increasing MELD 3.0 was associated with an increased hazard of mortality (HR=1.27, 95% CI: 1.18-1.37), and the c -statistic for 90-day waitlist survival using MELD 3.0 was 0.893 compared with 0.871 using MELD-Sodium and 0.852 using Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease. CONCLUSIONS: The discriminative ability of MELD 3.0 to rank adolescents according to the risk of death within 90 days was robust. Although MELD 3.0 was initially developed and validated in adults, MELD 3.0 may also improve the prediction of waitlist mortality in adolescents and better represent their urgency for liver transplants.

The steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score: A tool to detect low-risk NAFLD in primary care.

BACKGROUND: NAFLD is common in primary care. Liver fibrosis stage 2 or higher (≥F2) increases future risk of morbidity and mortality. We developed and validated a score to aid in the initial assessment of liver fibrosis for NAFLD in primary care. METHODS: Data from patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were extracted from the NASH Clinical Research Network observational study ( n = 676). Using logistic regression and machine-learning methods, we constructed prediction models to distinguish ≥F2 from F0/1. The models were tested in participants in a trial ("FLINT," n = 280) and local patients with NAFLD with magnetic resonance elastography data ( n = 130). The final model was applied to examinees in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III ( n = 11,953) to correlate with long-term mortality. RESULTS: A multivariable logistic regression model was selected as the Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator (SAFE) score, which consists of age, body mass index, diabetes, platelets, aspartate and alanine aminotransferases, and globulins (total serum protein minus albumin). The model yielded areas under receiver operating characteristic curves ≥0.80 in distinguishing F0/1 from ≥F2 in testing data sets, consistently higher than those of Fibrosis-4 and NAFLD Fibrosis Scores. The negative predictive values in ruling out ≥F2 at SAFE of 0 were 88% and 92% in the two testing sets. In the NHANES III set, survival up to 25 years of subjects with SAFE < 0 was comparable to that of those without steatosis ( p = 0.34), whereas increasing SAFE scores correlated with shorter survival with an adjusted HR of 1.53 ( p < 0.01) for subjects with SAFE > 100. CONCLUSION: The SAFE score, which uses widely available variables to estimate liver fibrosis in patients diagnosed with NAFLD, may be used in primary care to recognize low-risk NAFLD.

Diagnostic and prognostic performance of the SAFE score in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score was developed to detect clinically significant liver fibrosis in patients with NAFLD in the United States. We compare the performance of the SAFE score and other non-invasive tests to diagnose liver fibrosis and to correlate the scores with liver-related outcomes in patients with NAFLD in Hong Kong. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study involving two data sets. The first cohort was a biopsy cohort of NAFLD patients (n = 279), and the second was a territory-wide cohort of NAFLD patients (n = 4603) retrieved from a territory-wide electronic healthcare database in Hong Kong. RESULTS: In detecting significant fibrosis, liver stiffness measured by transient elastography had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (.844), followed by SAFE score (.773). SAFE score had the highest AUROC among blood-based algorithms (.773 vs. .746 for FIB-4, .697 for APRI). Based on cut-off values of SAFE score (0 and 100 points), 854 (18.6%), 1596 (34.6%) and 2153 (46.8%) were in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively, in the territory-wide cohort. Six (.7%), 15 (.9%) and 59 (2.7%) developed liver-related events in those three groups respectively. Among patients who had liver-related events at 5 years, using the high cut-off, SAFE score could predict 84.9% of patients accurately, compared to 40.9% for FIB-4 and 27.2% for APRI. CONCLUSION: The SAFE score performed well and better than other blood-based markers in diagnosing significant fibrosis and predicting liver-related events in Asian patients with NAFLD.

OPTN/SRTR 2021 Annual Data Report: Liver.

In 2021, liver transplant volume continued to grow, with a record 9,234 transplants performed in the United States, 8,665 (93.8%) from deceased donors and 569 (6.2%) from living donors. There were 8,733 (94.6%) adult and 501 (5.4%) pediatric liver transplant recipients. An increase in the number of deceased donor livers corresponded to an increase in the overall transplant rate and shorter waiting times, although still 10.0% of livers that were recovered were not transplanted. Alcohol-associated liver disease was the leading indication for both waitlist registration and liver transplant in adults, outpacing nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, while biliary atresia remained the leading indication for children. Related to allocation policy changes implemented in 2019, the proportion of liver transplants performed for hepatocellular carcinoma has decreased. Among adult candidates listed for liver transplant in 2020, 37.7% received a deceased donor liver transplant within 3 months, 43.8% within 6 months, and 53.3% within 1 year. Pretransplant mortality improved for children following implementation of acuity circle-based distribution. Short-term graft and patient survival outcomes up to 1 year worsened for adult deceased and living donor liver transplant recipients, which is a reversal of previous trends and coincided with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. Longer-term outcomes among adult deceased donor liver transplant recipients were unaffected, with overall posttransplant mortality rates of 13.3% at 3 years, 18.6% at 5 years, and 35.9% at 10 years. Pretransplant mortality improved for children following implementation of acuity circle-based distribution and prioritization of pediatric donors to pediatric recipients in 2020. Pediatric living donor recipients had superior graft and patient survival outcomes compared with deceased donor recipients at all time points.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving tenofovir- vs. entecavir-based regimens: Individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The comparative risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) vs. entecavir (ETV) remains controversial. In this individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis, we aimed to compare HCC risk between the two drugs and identify subgroups who may benefit more from one treatment than the other. METHODS: Published meta-analyses, electronic databases and congress proceedings were searched to identify eligible studies through January 2021. We compared HCC risk between the two drugs using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model with anonymised IPD from treatment-naïve patients with CHB receiving TDF or ETV for ≥1 year. Treatment effect consistency was explored in propensity score matching (PSM), weighting (PSW) and subgroup analyses for age, sex, hepatitis B e-antigen (HBeAg) positivity, cirrhosis and diabetes status. RESULTS: We included 11 studies from Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong involving 42,939 patients receiving TDF (n = 6,979) or ETV (n = 35,960) monotherapy. Patients receiving TDF had significantly lower HCC risk (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.77; 95% CI 0.61-0.98; p = 0.03). Lower HCC risk with TDF was consistently observed in PSM (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.59-0.88; p <0.01) and PSW (HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.67-1.03; p = 0.10) analyses and in all subgroups, with statistical significance in the ≥50 years of age (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.58-1.00; p <0.05), male (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.58-0.96; p = 0.02), HBeAg-positive (HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.49-0.97; p = 0.03) and non-diabetic (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.63-1.00; p <0.05) subgroups. CONCLUSION: TDF was associated with significantly lower HCC risk than ETV in patients with CHB, particularly those with HBeAg positivity. Longer follow-up may be needed to better define incidence differences between the treatments in various subgroups. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Previous aggregate data meta-analyses have reported inconsistent conclusions on the relative effectiveness of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and entecavir in reducing hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This individual patient data meta-analysis on 11 studies involving 42,939 patients from Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong suggested that tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-treated patients have a significantly lower hepatocellular carcinoma risk than entecavir-treated patients, which was observed in all subgroups of clinical interest and by different analytical methodologies. These findings should be taken into account by healthcare providers when determining the optimal course of treatment for patients with CHB and may be considered in ensuring that treatment guidelines for CHB remain pertinent.

Research methodologies to address clinical unmet needs and challenges in alcohol-associated liver disease.

Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) is emerging worldwide as the leading cause of liver-related morbidity, mortality, and indication for liver transplantation. The ALD Special Interest Group and the Clinical Research Committee at the digital American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases meeting in November 2020 held the scientific sessions to identify clinical unmet needs in ALD, and addressing these needs using clinical research methodologies. Of several research methodologies, the sessions were focused on (a) studying disease burden of ALD using large administrative databases, (b) developing biomarkers for noninvasive diagnosis of alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) and estimation of disease prognosis, (c) identifying therapeutic targets for ALD and AH, (d) deriving accurate models to predict prognosis or posttransplant alcohol relapse as a basis for developing treatment algorithm and a uniform protocol on patient-selection criteria for liver transplantation, and (e) examining qualitative research methodologies in studying the barriers to implementation of multidisciplinary integrated care model by hepatology and addiction teams for the management of dual pathology of liver disease and of alcohol use disorder. Prospective multicenter studies are required to address many of these clinical unmet needs. Further, multidisciplinary care models are needed to improve long-term outcomes in patients with ALD.

Impact of Pruritus on Quality of Life and Current Treatment Patterns in Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) often suffer with pruritus. We describe the impact of pruritus on quality of life and how it is managed in a real-world cohort. METHODS: TARGET-PBC is a longitudinal observational cohort of patients with PBC across the USA. Data include information from medical records for three years prior to the date of consent up to 5 years of follow-up. Enrolled patients were asked to complete patient-reported outcome surveys: PBC-40, 5-D itch, and the PROMIS fatigue survey. Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to compare differences in symptoms between groups. RESULTS: A total of 211 patients with completed PRO surveys were included in the current study. PRO respondents were compared with non-respondents in the TARGET-PBC population and were broadly similar. Pruritus was reported in 170 patients (81%), with those reporting clinically significant pruritus (30%) scoring worse across each domain of the PBC-40 and 5-D itch, more frequently having cirrhosis, and having significantly greater levels of fatigue. Patients reporting clinically significant pruritus were more likely to receive treatment, but 33% had never received treatment (no itch = 43.9%, mild itch = 38.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of pruritus was high in this population, and those reporting clinically significant pruritus had a higher likelihood of having advanced disease and worse quality of life. However, this study found that pruritus in PBC is under-treated. This may be due in part to ineffectiveness of current treatments, poor tolerance, or the lack of FDA-approved medications for pruritus.

"Beyond MELD" - Emerging strategies and technologies for improving mortality prediction, organ allocation and outcomes in liver transplantation.

In this review article, we discuss the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and its dual purpose in general and transplant hepatology. As the landscape of liver disease and transplantation has evolved considerably since the advent of the MELD score, we summarise emerging concepts, methodologies, and technologies that may improve mortality prognostication in the future. Finally, we explore how these novel concepts and technologies may be incorporated into clinical practice.

Methodological challenges of performing meta-analyses to compare the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma between chronic hepatitis B treatments.

Despite several recent meta-analyses on the topic, the comparative risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) remains controversial. The controversy partly results from the arbitrary nature of significance levels leading to contradictory conclusions from very similar datasets. However, the use of observational data, which is prone to both within- and between-study heterogeneity of patient characteristics, also lends additional uncertainty. The asynchronous introduction of ETV and TDF in East Asia, where the majority of these studies have been conducted, further complicates analyses, as does the ensuing difference in follow-up time between ETV and TDF cohorts. Researchers conducting meta-analyses in this area must make many methodological decisions to mitigate bias but are ultimately limited to the methodologies of the included studies. It is therefore important for researchers, as well as the audience of published meta-analyses, to be aware of the quality of observational studies and meta-analyses in terms of patient characteristics, study design and statistical methodologies. In this review, we aim to help clinicians navigate the published meta-analyses on this topic and to provide researchers with recommendations for future work.

Tenofovir Alafenamide Attenuates Effects of Diabetes and Body Mass on Serum Alanine Aminotransferase Activities in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

Persistent serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevation in nucleotide/nucleoside analogue (NA)-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) has been associated with unfavorable long-term outcomes.1 It has been consistently shown that a higher proportion of patients receiving tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) achieve normal ALT in comparison with recipients of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate,2-5 the mechanism for which remains unknown.2.

MELD 3.0: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Updated for the Modern Era.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been established as a reliable indicator of short-term survival in patients with end-stage liver disease. The current version (MELDNa), consisting of the international normalized ratio and serum bilirubin, creatinine, and sodium, has been used to determine organ allocation priorities for liver transplantation in the United States. The objective was to optimize MELD further by taking into account additional variables and updating coefficients with contemporary data. METHODS: All candidates registered on the liver transplant wait list in the US national registry from January 2016 through December 2018 were included. Uni- and multivariable Cox models were developed to predict survival up to 90 days after wait list registration. Model fit was tested using the concordance statistic (C-statistic) and reclassification, and the Liver Simulated Allocation Model was used to estimate the impact of replacing MELDNa with the new model. RESULTS: The final multivariable model was characterized by (1) additional variables of female sex and serum albumin, (2) interactions between bilirubin and sodium and between albumin and creatinine, and (3) an upper bound for creatinine at 3.0 mg/dL. The final model (MELD 3.0) had better discrimination than MELDNa (C-statistic, 0.869 vs 0.862; P < .01). Importantly, MELD 3.0 correctly reclassified a net of 8.8% of decedents to a higher MELD tier, affording them a meaningfully higher chance of transplantation, particularly in women. In the Liver Simulated Allocation Model analysis, MELD 3.0 resulted in fewer wait list deaths compared to MELDNa (7788 vs 7850; P = .02). CONCLUSION: MELD 3.0 affords more accurate mortality prediction in general than MELDNa and addresses determinants of wait list outcomes, including the sex disparity.

An Updated Assessment of Chronic Hepatitis B Prevalence Among Foreign-Born Persons Living in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although prevalence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in the USA includes 0.42 million (range, 0.28-0.67) U.S.-born persons, foreign-born (FB) persons contribute a substantially larger number to the burden of CHB in the USA. Over the past decade, patterns of U.S. immigration have changed and many countries have implemented HBV prevention programs. This study aims to estimate the number of FB persons with CHB in the USA by country of origin, updating our 2011 study. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We performed systematic searches for articles published in 2009-2019 reporting HBsAg seroprevalence in emigrants and in-country populations of 117 countries. Data meeting inclusion criteria were combined with data from our 2011 study to calculate pooled prevalence estimates for 99 countries using meta-analyses (total 2,800 surveys involving 112 million subjects). Combining country-specific CHB rate estimates with the number of FB in the USA in 2018, by country of origin from the U.S. Census Bureau, we estimate that the number of FB with CHB in the USA in 2018 was 1.47 million (95% CI, 1.21-1.73), substantially higher than previously reported. The weighted average CHB prevalence for all FB in the USA in 2018 was 3.07%. Approximately 59% of FB with CHB in the USA in 2018 emigrated from Asia, 19% from the Americas, and 15% from Africa. Subgroup analyses found that for many countries, CHB rates are higher in males than females and have declined over the past three decades, but no consistent pattern is observed between emigrant and in-country rates. CONCLUSIONS: Including FB and U.S.-born persons, the total prevalence of CHB in the USA may be as high as 2.4 million.

Targeted Electronic Patient Portal Messaging Increases Hepatitis C Virus Screening in Primary Care: a Randomized Study.

IMPORTANCE: Electronic health record (EHR) tools such as direct-to-patient messaging and automated lab orders are effective at improving uptake of preventive health measures. It is unknown if patient engagement in primary care impacts efficacy of such messaging. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether more engaged patients, defined as those who have an upcoming visit scheduled, are more likely to respond to a direct-to-patient message with an automated lab order for hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening. DESIGN: Randomized trial PARTICIPANTS: One thousand six hundred randomly selected Stanford Primary Care patients, 800 with an upcoming visit within 6 months and 800 without, born between 1945 and 1965 who were due for HCV screening. Each group was randomly divided into cohorts of 400 subjects each. Subjects were followed for 1 year. INTERVENTION: One 400 subject cohort in each group received a direct-to-patient message through the EHR portal with HCV antibody lab order. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE: The EHR was queried on a monthly basis for 6 months after the intervention to monitor which subjects completed HCV screening. For any subjects screened positive for HCV, follow-up through the cascade of HCV care was monitored, and if needed, scheduled by the study team. KEY RESULTS: Of 1600 subjects, 538 (34%) completed HCV screening. In the stratum without an upcoming appointment, 18% in the control group completed screening compared to 26% in intervention group (p<0.01). Similarly, in the stratum with an upcoming appointment, 34% in the control group completed screening compared to 58% in the intervention group (p<0.01). CONCLUSION: Direct-to-patient messaging coupled with automated lab orders improved HCV screening rates compared to standard of care, particularly in more engaged patients. Including this intervention in primary care can maximize screening with each visit, which is particularly valuable in times when physical throughput in the healthcare system may be low.