Airborne Avian Influenza Virus in Ambient Air in the Winter Habitats of Migratory Birds.

Outbreaks of avian influenza virus (AIV) have raised public concerns recently. Airborne AIV has been evaluated in live poultry markets and case farms; however, no study has discussed airborne AIV in ambient air in the winter habitats of migratory birds. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate airborne AIV, specifically H5, H7, and H9, in a critical winter habitat of migratory birds and assess the factors influencing airborne AIV transmission in ambient air to provide novel insights into the epidemiology of avian influenza. A total of 357 ambient air samples were collected in the Aogu Wetland, Taiwan, Republic of China, between October 2017 and December 2019 and analyzed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. The effects of environmental factors including air pollutants, meteorological factors, and the species of the observed migratory birds on the concentration of airborne AIV were also analyzed. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the relationship between airborne AIV in ambient air and the influence factors in the winter habitats of migratory birds, demonstrating the benefits of environmental sampling for infectious disease epidemiology. The positive rate of airborne H7 (12%) was higher than that of H5 (8%) and H9 (10%). The daily mean temperature and daily maximum temperature had a significant negative correlation with influenza A, H7, and H9. Cold air masses and bird migration were significantly associated with airborne H9 and H7, respectively. In addition, we observed a significant correlation between AIV and the number of pintails, common teals, Indian spot-billed ducks, northern shovelers, Eurasian wigeons, tufted ducks, pied avocets, black-faced spoonbills, and great cormorants. In conclusion, we demonstrated the potential for alternative surveillance approaches (monitoring bird species) as an indicator for influenza-related risks and identified cold air masses and the presence of specific bird species as potential drivers of the presence and/or the airborne concentration of AIV.

FluConvert and IniFlu: a suite of integrated software to identify novel signatures of emerging influenza viruses with increasing risk.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic threat of influenza has attracted great attention worldwide. To assist public health decision-makers, new suites of tools are needed to rapidly process and combine viral information retrieved from public-domain databases for a better risk assessment. RESULTS: Using our recently developed FluConvert and IniFlu software, we automatically processed and rearranged sequence data by standard viral nomenclature, determined the group-related consensus sequences, and identified group-specific polygenic signatures. The software possesses powerful ability to integrate viral, clinical, and epidemiological data. We demonstrated that both multiple basic amino acids at the cleavage site of the HA gene and also at least 11 more evidence-based viral amino acid substitutions present in global highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N2 viruses during the years 2009-2016 that are associated with viral virulence and human infection. CONCLUSIONS: FluConvert and IniFlu are useful to monitor and assess all subtypes of influenza viruses with pandemic potential. These programs are implemented through command-line and user-friendly graphical interfaces, and identify molecular signatures with virological, epidemiological and clinical significance. FluConvert and IniFlu are available at https://apps.flutures.com or https://github.com/chinrur/FluConvert_IniFlu.

Protecting Healthcare Workers During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak: Lessons From Taiwan's Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Response.

During major epidemic outbreaks, demand for healthcare workers (HCWs) grows even as the extreme pressures they face cause declining availability. We draw on Taiwan's severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) experience to argue that a modified form of traffic control bundling (TCB) protects HCW safety and by extension strengthens overall coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic control.

Virulence of Japanese Encephalitis Virus Genotypes I and III, Taiwan.

The virulence of genotype I (GI) Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is under debate. We investigated differences in the virulence of GI and GIII JEV by calculating asymptomatic ratios based on serologic studies during GI- and GIII-JEV endemic periods. The results suggested equal virulence of GI and GIII JEV among humans.

Endothelial Cell Sensitization by Death Receptor Fractions of an Anti-Dengue Nonstructural Protein 1 Antibody Induced Plasma Leakage, Coagulopathy, and Mortality in Mice.

The mechanisms leading to the life-threatening dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) remain elusive. DHF preferentially occurs during secondary dengue infections, suggesting that aberrant immune responses are involved in its development. We previously demonstrated that the autoantibodies elicited by dengue virus (DENV) nonstructural protein 1 (NS1; anti-NS1 Igs) induce plasma leakage and mortality in mice with warfarinized anticoagulant suppression. However, the involved pathogenic Ig fractions of anti-NS1 Igs remain unclear. In this study, the autoreactive Igs in patients with DHF and in NS1-immunized rabbits crossreacted with TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor 1 (death receptor [DR]4). Challenges with the DENV in a subcytotoxic dose sensitized endothelial cells to apoptosis. Treatments with the autoantibodies induced proapoptotic activities and suppressed the surface expression of endothelial anticoagulant thrombomodulin. Combined treatments comprising the DENV and DR4 affinity-purified fractions of anti-NS1 IgGs (anti-NS1-DR4 Ig), but not preimmune control IgGs, in subcytotoxic doses led to apoptosis in endothelial cells. Treatments with the anti-NS1-DR4 Ig led to plasma leakage, coagulopathy, and morality in mice with warfarinized anticoagulant suppression. These results suggest that DR4-induced endothelial cell sensitization through NS1-elicited autoantibodies exacerbates anticoagulant suppression, vascular injury, and plasma leakage. Detecting and blocking anti-DR Igs in patients may be novel strategies for managing severe DENV infection.

Emergence and evolution of avian H5N2 influenza viruses in chickens in Taiwan.

UNLABELLED: Sporadic activity by H5N2 influenza viruses has been observed in chickens in Taiwan from 2003 to 2012. The available information suggests that these viruses were generated by reassortment between a Mexican-like H5N2 virus and a local enzootic H6N1 virus. Yet the origin, prevalence, and pathogenicity of these H5N2 viruses have not been fully defined. Following the 2012 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks, surveillance was conducted from December 2012 to July 2013 at a live-poultry wholesale market in Taipei. Our findings showed that H5N2 and H6N1 viruses cocirculated at low levels in chickens in Taiwan. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that all H5N2 viruses had hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes derived from a 1994 Mexican-like virus, while their internal gene complexes were incorporated from the enzootic H6N1 virus lineage by multiple reassortment events. Pathogenicity studies demonstrated heterogeneous results even though all tested viruses had motifs (R-X-K/R-R) supportive of high pathogenicity. Serological surveys for common subtypes of avian viruses confirmed the prevalence of the H5N2 and H6N1 viruses in chickens and revealed an extraordinarily high seroconversion rate to an H9N2 virus, a subtype that is not found in Taiwan but is prevalent in mainland China. These findings suggest that reassortant H5N2 viruses, together with H6N1 viruses, have become established and enzootic in chickens throughout Taiwan and that a large-scale vaccination program might have been conducted locally that likely led to the introduction of the 1994 Mexican-like virus to Taiwan in 2003. IMPORTANCE: H5N2 avian influenza viruses first appeared in chickens in Taiwan in 2003 and caused a series of outbreaks afterwards. Phylogenetic analyses show that the chicken H5N2 viruses have H5 and N2 genes that are closely related to those of a vaccine strain originating from Mexico in 1994, while the contemporary duck H5N2 viruses in Taiwan belong to the Eurasian gene pool. The unusually high similarity of the chicken H5N2 viruses to the Mexican vaccine strain suggests that these viruses might have been introduced to Taiwan by using inadequately inactivated or attenuated vaccines. These chicken H5N2 viruses are developing varying levels of pathogenicity that could lead to significant consequences for the local poultry industry. These findings emphasize the need for strict quality control and competent oversight in the manufacture and usage of avian influenza virus vaccines and indicate that alternatives to widespread vaccination may be desirable.

A case report of avian influenza H7N9 killing a young doctor in Shanghai, China.

BACKGROUND: The novel avian influenza H7N9 virus has caused severe diseases in humans in eastern China since the spring of 2013. On January 18(th) 2014, a doctor working in the emergency department of a hospital in Shanghai died of H7N9 virus infection. To understand possible reasons to explain this world's first fatal H7N9 case of a health care worker (HCW), we summarize the clinical presentation, epidemiological investigations, laboratory results, and prevention and control policies and make important recommendations to hospital-related workers. CASE PRESENTATION: The patient was a 31-year-old male Chinese surgeon who was obese and had a five-year history of hypertension and suspected diabetes. On January 11(th) 2014, he showed symptoms of an influenza-like illness. Four days later, his illness rapidly progressed with bilateral pulmonary infiltration, hypoxia and lymphopenia. On January 17th, the case had a high fever, productive cough, chest tightness and shortness of breath, so that he was administered with oseltamivir, glucocorticoid, immunoglobulin, and broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy. The case died in the early morning of next day after invasive ventilation. He had no contact with poultry nor had he visited live-poultry markets (LPMs), where positive rates of H7N9 were 14.6 % and 18.5 %. Before his illness, he cared for three febrile patients and had indirect contact with one severe pneumonia patient. Follow-up with 35 close contacts identified two HCWs who had worked also in emergency department but had not worn masks were anti-H7N9-positive. Viral sequence identity percentages between the patient and two LPM-H7N9 isolates were fewer than between the patient and another human case in shanghai in January of 2014. CONCLUSIONS: Important reasons for the patient's death might include late treatment with oseltamivir, and the infected H7N9 virus carrying both mammalian-adapted signature (HA-Q226L) and aerosol transmissibility (PB2-D701N). The LPM he passed every day was an unlikely source of his infection, but a contaminated environment, or an unidentified mild/asymptomatic H7N9 carrier were more probable. We advocate rigorous standard operating procedures for infection control practices in hospital settings and evaluations thereafter.

Changing risk awareness and personal protection measures for low to high pathogenic avian influenza in live-poultry markets in Taiwan, 2007 to 2012.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of low and high pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI, HPAI) H5N2 in chickens have occurred in Taiwan since 2003 and 2012, respectively. Fully understanding the different awareness, attitudes and protective behaviors adopted by workers in live-poultry markets (LPMWs) and local community residents (CRs) to face the challenges of LPAI and HPAI is very important to minimize viral adaptations to human populations. METHODS: A structural questionnaire containing information on respondents' occupation, personal risk awareness, attitudes toward different policies, and preventative measures was administered. The two-stage survey (before and after HPAI H5N2 outbreaks) was conducted from 2007 to 2012, including: (1) 430 LPMWs and 418 CRs at LPMs from different geographical areas of Taiwan after the government announced outbreaks of LPAI H5N2 during 2007-2009, and (2) 73 LPMWs and 152 CRs at two LPMs in central Taiwan after the HPAI H5N2 outbreaks in 2012. The chi-squared test and logistic regression were applied for univariate and multivariate analyses, respectively. RESULTS: Before HPAI-H5N2 outbreaks, higher educated respondents demonstrated greater risk awareness and concerns regarding AI. However, LPM-workers protected themselves less from AI viruses (AIVs) and had lower acceptance of human or avian influenza vaccines. Most importantly, the participants who opposed (versus agreed with) the policy on banning live-poultry slaughtering at LPMs reported lower awareness of government prevention and control policies [Odds Ratio (OR): 0.76, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 0.56-1.01] or practiced preventive measures (OR: 0.42, 95 % CI: 0.25-0.70). After HPAI-H5N2 outbreaks, the risk awareness about AI in central Taiwan significantly increased [LPAI to HPAI LPMWs: 34.6 to 65.6 %, p < 0.05; CRs: 44.0 to 76.5 %, p < 0.05] and LPMWs' belief in the effectiveness of vaccination to prevent human or avian influenza virus infection strikingly decreased (92.3 to 68.5 %, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Risk awareness depends on high or low pathogenicity of AIVs, working in LPMs, levels of education, age, and proximity to the sites of severe AI outbreaks. Regardless of novel LPAI or HPAI virus reassortants that pose public health risks, prompt and clear risk communication focusing on both correct information about AIVs and the most appropriate preventive measures are important for effective prevention of human infection.

Asymptomatic ratio for seasonal H1N1 influenza infection among schoolchildren in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Studies indicate that asymptomatic infections do indeed occur frequently for both seasonal and pandemic influenza, accounting for about one-third of influenza infections. Studies carried out during the 2009 pH1N1 pandemic have found significant antibody response against seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 vaccine strains in schoolchildren receiving only pandemic H1N1 monovalent vaccine, yet reported either no symptoms or only mild symptoms. METHODS: Serum samples of 255 schoolchildren, who had not received vaccination and had pre-season HI Ab serotiters <40, were collected from urban, rural areas and an isolated island in Taiwan during the 2005-2006 influenza season. Their hemagglutination inhibition antibody (HI Ab) serotiters against the 2005 A/New Caledonia/20/99 (H1N1) vaccine strain at pre-season and post-season were measured to determine the symptoms with the highest correlation with infection, as defined by 4-fold rise in HI titer. We estimate the asymptomatic ratio, or the proportion of asymptomatic infections, for schoolchildren during the 2005-6 influenza season when this vaccine strain was found to be antigenically related to the circulating H1N1 strain. RESULTS: Fever has the highest correlation with the 2005-06 seasonal influenza A(H1N1) infection, followed by headache, cough, vomiting, and sore throat. Asymptomatic ratio for the schoolchildren is found to range between 55.6% (95% CI: 44.7-66.4)-77.9% (68.8-87.0) using different sets of predictive symptoms. Moreover, the asymptomatic ratio was 66.9% (56.6-77.2) when using US-CDC criterion of fever + (cough/sore throat), and 73.0 (63.3-82.8) when under Taiwan CDC definition of Fever + (cough or sore throat or nose) + ( headache or pain or fatigue). CONCLUSIONS: Asymptomatic ratio for children is found to be substantially higher than that of the general population in literature. In providing reasonable quantification of the asymptomatic infected children spreading pathogens to others in a seasonal epidemic or a pandemic, our estimates of symptomatic ratio of infected children has important clinical and public health implications.

Spatio-temporal analysis on enterovirus cases through integrated surveillance in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Severe epidemics of enterovirus have occurred frequently in Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Cambodia, and China, involving cases of pulmonary edema, hemorrhage and encephalitis, and an effective vaccine has not been available. The specific aim of this study was to understand the epidemiological characteristics of mild and severe enterovirus cases through integrated surveillance data. METHODS: All enterovirus cases in Taiwan over almost ten years from three main databases, including national notifiable diseases surveillance, sentinel physician surveillance and laboratory surveillance programs from July 1, 1999 to December 31, 2008 were analyzed. The Pearson's correlation coefficient was applied for measuring the consistency of the trends in the cases between different surveillance systems. Cross correlation analysis in a time series model was applied for examining the capability to predict severe enterovirus infections. Poisson temporal, spatial and space-time scan statistics were used for identifying the most likely clusters of severe enterovirus outbreaks. The directional distribution method with two standard deviations of ellipse was applied to measure the size and the movement of the epidemic. RESULTS: The secular trend showed that the number of severe EV cases peaked in 2008, and the number of mild EV cases was significantly correlated with that of severe ones occurring in the same week [r = 0.553, p < 0.01]. These severe EV cases showed significantly higher association with the weekly positive isolation rates of EV-71 than the mild cases [severe: 0.498, p < 0.01 vs. mild: 0.278, p < 0.01]. In a time series model, the increase of mild EV cases was the significant predictor for the occurrence of severe EV cases. The directional distribution showed that both the mild and severe EV cases spread extensively during the peak. Before the detected spatio-temporal clusters in June 2008, the mild cases had begun to rise since May 2008, and the outbreak spread from south to north. CONCLUSIONS: Local public health professionals can monitor the temporal and spatial trends plus spatio-temporal clusters and isolation rate of EV-71 in mild and severe EV cases in a community when virus transmission is high, to provide early warning signals and to prevent subsequent severe epidemics.

Highly conserved influenza A virus epitope sequences as candidates of H3N2 flu vaccine targets.

This study focused on identifying the conserved epitopes in a single subtype A (H3N2)-as candidates for vaccine targets. We identified a total of 32 conserved epitopes in four viral proteins [22 HA, 4PB1, 3 NA, 3 NP]. Evaluation of conserved epitopes in coverage during 1968-2010 revealed that (1) 12 HA conserved epitopes were highly present in the circulating viruses; (2) the remaining 10 HA conserved epitopes appeared with lower percentage but a significantly increasing trend after 1989 [p<0.001]; and (3) the conserved epitopes in NA, NP and PB1 are also highly frequent in wild-type viruses. These conserved epitopes also covered an extremely high percentage of the 16 vaccine strains during the 42 year period. The identification of highly conserved epitopes using our approach can also be applied to develop broad-spectrum vaccines.

The emergence and successful elimination of SARS-CoV-2 dominant strains with increasing epidemic potential in Taiwan's 2021 outbreak.

Taiwan's experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2003 guided its development of strategies to defend against SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, which enabled the successful control of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases from 2020 through March 2021. However, in late-April 2021, the imported Alpha variant began to cause COVID-19 outbreaks at an exceptional rate in Taiwan. In this study, we aimed to determine what epidemiological conditions enabled the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant strains to become dominant and decline later during a surge in the outbreak. In conjunction with contact-tracing investigations, we used our bioinformatics software, CoVConvert and IniCoV, to analyze whole-genome sequences of 101 Taiwan Alpha strains. Univariate and multivariable regression analyses revealed the epidemiological factors associated with viral dominance. Univariate analysis showed the dominant Alpha strains were preferentially selected in the surge's epicenter (p = 0.0024) through intensive human-to-human contact and maintained their dominance for 1.5 months until the Zero-COVID Policy was implemented. Multivariable regression found that the epidemic periods (p = 0.007) and epicenter (p = 0.001) were two significant factors associated with the dominant virus strains spread in the community. These dominant virus strains emerged at the outbreak's epicenter with frequent human-to-human contact and low vaccination coverage. The Level 3 Restrictions and Zero-COVID policy successfully controlled the outbreak in the community without city lockdowns. Our integrated method can identify the epidemiological conditions for emerging dominant virus with increasing epidemiological potential and support decision makers in rapidly containing outbreaks using public health measures that target fast-spreading virus strains.

Field performance of clinical case definitions for influenza screening during the 2009 pandemic.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to assess the performance of 3 different influenza-like illness (ILI) case definitions, adopted by the European (European-CDC), USA (USA-CDC), and Taiwan Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (Taiwan-CDC), as screening tools for influenza during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. METHODS: From August 15 to 30, 2009, all emergency department patients with clinical symptoms or at epidemiologic risk for influenza were enrolled in an observational cohort study. Influenza diagnosis was established by positive rapid influenza diagnostic test or virus isolation. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the European-, USA, and Taiwan-CDC ILI case definitions for screening were determined. RESULTS: A total of 870 patients were screened during the study period. Rapid influenza diagnostic test was positive in 315 patients, 273 (85.6%) of whom had fever duration less than 72 hours. Virus isolation identified 4 more patients with influenza A initially negative by rapid influenza diagnostic test. The mean (SD) age of these 319 patients was 24.3 (18.1) years. Of the 870 screened patients, 670 (77.0%), 476 (54.7%), and 325 (37.4%) met the European-, USA-, and Taiwan-CDC ILI case definition, respectively. Screening sensitivity was 95%, 77.7%, and 57.7% and specificity was 33.4%, 58.6%, and 74.4%, respectively. Differences in sensitivity and specificity between any 2 of the 3 groups were statistically significant (P < .05). CONCLUSION: First-line physicians should recognize the advantage and limitation of different ILI case definitions in influenza screening, especially confronted by pandemic or highly pathogenic avian influenza in the future.

Risk mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 during 2012-2017 in Taiwan with spatial bayesian modelling: Implications for surveillance and control policies.

During 2012-2017, a total of 1,144 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 outbreaks were reported in Taiwan. We conjectured the current 3-km radius of the post-outbreak containment policy could fail to effectively alleviate the current ongoing epidemics of HPAI H5 in Taiwan. The high intensity of localized transmission of HPAI H5 at certain focal hotspots was identified to follow the spatial distribution of poultry-raising locations through our hotspot analyses on the HPAI H5 outbreak locations from 2015 to 2017. We then applied 3-, 5- and 7-km circular buffer zones to 15,444 registered poultry-raising locations to inspect the characteristics of the poultry-raising neighbourhood. Three spatial regression models using Bayesian inference were established to infer the risks attributable to poultry-raising characteristics in the corresponding buffer areas. The different buffer radii were treated as a sensitivity analysis of the influential range of neighbouring farms on the HPAI H5 outbreak occurrence, so as to evaluate the effective radius for post-outbreak containment. Evidence showed that the risks of outbreak occurrence were associated with increasing numbers of poultry-raising locations in both 3-km (relative risk [RR] 1.005, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.002-1.008) and 5-km buffer areas (RR 1.005, 95% CI 1.004-1.007), whereas in the 7-km buffer model, no association between densely populated locations and increasing risks of outbreaks was observed (RR 1.000, 95% CI 0.999-1.001). Therefore, an extension to a 7-km radius for the post-outbreak containment policy (rather than a 3-km radius as in the current policy) is recommended to effectively mitigate further spreading of HPAI H5 outbreaks among neighbouring farms. Overall, we demonstrated that the densely populated locations with multiple poultry species raised in proximity as defined with 3-, 5- and 7-km buffer areas facilitated H5 HPAI outbreak diffusion and shaped the scale of HPAI H5 epidemics in Taiwan.

Impact of prior infection and repeated vaccination on post-vaccination antibody titers of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 strain in Taiwan schoolchildren: Implications for public health.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of prior-infection and repeated vaccination on post-vaccination antibody titers. METHODS: A(H1N1)pdm09 strain was included in 2009 pandemic monovalent, 2010-2011, and 2011-2012 trivalent influenza vaccines (MIVpdm09, TIV10/11, TIV11/12) in Taiwan. During the 2011-2012 influenza season, we conducted a prospective sero-epidemiological cohort study among schoolchildren from grades 1 - 6 in the two elementary schools in Taipei with documented A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination records since 2009. Serum samples were collected at pre-vaccination, 1-month, and 4-months post-vaccination (T1, T2, T3). Anti-A(H1N1)pdm09 hemagglutination inhibition titers (HI-Ab-titers) were examined. We also investigated the impact of four vaccination histories [(1) no previous vaccination (None), (2) vaccinated in 2009-2010 season (09v), (3) vaccinated in 2010-2011 season (10v), and (4) vaccinated consecutively in 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 seasons (09v + 10v)] and pre-vaccination HI-Ab levels on post-vaccination HI-Ab responses as well as adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against serologically-defined infection from T2 to T3. RESULTS: TIV11/12 had zero serious adverse events reported. A(H1N1)pdm09 strain in TIV11/12 elicited seroprotective Ab-titers in 98% of children and showed promising protection (aVE: 70.3% [95% confidence interval (CI): 51.0-82.1%]). Previously unvaccinated but infected children had a 3.96 times higher T2 geometric mean titer (T2-GMT) of HI-Ab than those naïve to A(H1N1)pdm09 (GMT [95% CI]: 1039.7[585.3-1845.9] vs. 262.5[65.9-1045], p = 0.046). Previously vaccinated children with seroprotective T1-Ab-titers had a higher T2-GMT and a greater aVE than those with non-seroprotective T1-Ab-titers. Repeatedly vaccinated children had lower T2-GMT than those receiving primary doses of TIV11/12. However, after controlling prior infection and T1-Ab-titers, differences in T2-GMT among the four vaccination histories became insignificant (p = 0.16). CONCLUSION: This study supports the implementation of annual mass-vaccination with A(H1N1)pdm09 in schoolchildren for three consecutive influenza seasons when vaccine and circulating strains were well matched, and found that prior infection and pre-vaccination HI-Ab levels positively impacted post-vaccination HI-Ab responses.

Machine learning for emerging infectious disease field responses.

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), including the latest COVID-19 pandemic, have emerged and raised global public health crises in recent decades. Without existing protective immunity, an EID may spread rapidly and cause mass casualties in a very short time. Therefore, it is imperative to identify cases with risk of disease progression for the optimized allocation of medical resources in case medical facilities are overwhelmed with a flood of patients. This study has aimed to cope with this challenge from the aspect of preventive medicine by exploiting machine learning technologies. The study has been based on 83,227 hospital admissions with influenza-like illness and we analysed the risk effects of 19 comorbidities along with age and gender for severe illness or mortality risk. The experimental results revealed that the decision rules derived from the machine learning based prediction models can provide valuable guidelines for the healthcare policy makers to develop an effective vaccination strategy. Furthermore, in case the healthcare facilities are overwhelmed by patients with EID, which frequently occurred in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, the frontline physicians can incorporate the proposed prediction models to triage patients suffering minor symptoms without laboratory tests, which may become scarce during an EID disaster. In conclusion, our study has demonstrated an effective approach to exploit machine learning technologies to cope with the challenges faced during the outbreak of an EID.

Taiwan's Response to Influenza: A Seroepidemiological Evaluation of Policies and Implications for Pandemic Preparedness.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate class suspension and mass vaccination implemented among Taipei schoolchildren during the 2009 influenza pandemic and investigate factors affecting antibody responses. METHODS: We conducted 2 cohort studies on: (1) 972 schoolchildren from November 2009-March 2010 to evaluate pandemic policies and (2) 935 schoolchildren from November 2011-March 2012 to verify factors in antibody waning. Anti-influenza H1N1pdm09 hemagglutination inhibition antibodies (HI-Ab) were measured from serum samples collected before vaccination, and at 1 and 4 months after vaccination. Factors affecting HI-Ab responses were investigated through logistic regression and generalized estimating equation. RESULTS: Seroprevalence of H1N1pdm09 before vaccination was significantly higher among schoolchildren who experienced class suspensions than those who did not (59.6% vs 47.5%, p<0.05). Participating in after-school activities (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=2.47, p=0.047) and having ≥3 hours per week of exercise (aOR=2.86, p=0.019) were significantly correlated with H1N1pdm09 infection. Two doses of the H1N1pdm09 vaccine demonstrated significantly better antibody persistence than 1 dose (HI-Ab geometric mean titer: 132.5 vs 88.6, p=0.047). Vaccine effectiveness after controlling for preexisting immunity was 86% (32%-97%). Exercise ≥3 hours per week and preexisting immunity were significantly associated with antibody waning/maintenance. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to show that exercise and preexisting immunity may affect antibody waning. Further investigation is needed to identify immune correlates of protection.

A multitope SARS-CoV-2 vaccine provides long-lasting B cell and T cell immunity against Delta and Omicron variants.

BackgroundThe Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 are currently responsible for breakthrough infections due to waning immunity. We report phase I/II trial results of UB-612, a multitope subunit vaccine containing S1-RBD-sFc protein and rationally designed promiscuous peptides representing sarbecovirus conserved helper T cell and cytotoxic T lymphocyte epitopes on the nucleocapsid (N), membrane (M), and spike (S2) proteins.MethodWe conducted a phase I primary 2-dose (28 days apart) trial of 10, 30, or 100 µg UB-612 in 60 healthy young adults 20 to 55 years old, and 50 of them were boosted with 100 µg of UB-612 approximately 7 to 9 months after the second dose. A separate placebo-controlled and randomized phase II study was conducted with 2 doses of 100 µg of UB-612 (n = 3,875, 18-85 years old). We evaluated interim safety and immunogenicity of phase I until 14 days after the third (booster) dose and of phase II until 28 days after the second dose.ResultsNo vaccine-related serious adverse events were recorded. The most common solicited adverse events were injection site pain and fatigue, mostly mild and transient. In both trials, UB-612 elicited respective neutralizing antibody titers similar to a panel of human convalescent sera. The most striking findings were long-lasting virus-neutralizing antibodies and broad T cell immunity against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VoCs), including Delta and Omicron, and a strong booster-recalled memory immunity with high cross-reactive neutralizing titers against the Delta and Omicron VoCs.ConclusionUB-612 has presented a favorable safety profile, potent booster effect against VoCs, and long-lasting B and broad T cell immunity that warrants further development for both primary immunization and heterologous boosting of other COVID-19 vaccines.Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04545749, NCT04773067, and NCT04967742.FundingUBI Asia, Vaxxinity Inc., and Taiwan Centers for Disease Control, Ministry of Health and Welfare.

Learning from the past: Taiwan's responses to COVID-19 versus SARS.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prevalence of infection prevention behaviors in Taiwan-wearing facemasks and alcohol-based hand hygiene (AHH)-and compare their practice rates during SARS and COVID-19. METHODS: We surveyed 2328 Taiwanese from July 29 to August 6, 2020, assessing demographics, information sources, and preventive behaviors during the 2003 SARS outbreaks, 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1, COVID-19, and with post-survey intentions. Characteristics associated with the practice of preventive behaviors in 2020 were identified through logistic regression. RESULTS: Preventive behaviors were conscientiously practiced by 70.2% of participants. Compared with 2003 SARS/2009 H1N1, the percentages of facemask use (66.6% vs 99.2% [indoors], P < 0.001) and on-person AHH (44.2% vs 65.4% [hand sanitizers], P < 0.001) significantly increasedduring 2020 COVID-19. Highest adherence to preventive behaviors in 2020 was among females (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.72), those receiving government COVID-19 information (aOR, 1.52), participants recruited from primary-care clinics (aOR, 1.43), and those who practiced AHH during 2003 SARS/2009 H1N1 (aOR, 1.37). CONCLUSIONS: Government leadership, healthcare providers risk communication, and public cooperation rapidly mitigated the spread of COVID-19 in Taiwan even before vaccination. Future global efforts must implement such population-based preventive behaviors at a level above the viral-transmission-threshold, particularly in areas with fast-spreading SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Use of seroprevalence to guide dengue vaccination plans for older adults in a dengue non-endemic country.

A shift in dengue cases toward the adult population, accompanied by an increased risk of severe cases of dengue in the elderly, has created an important emerging issue in the past decade. To understand the level of past DENV infection among older adults after a large dengue outbreak occurred in southern Taiwan in 2015, we screened 1498 and 2603 serum samples from healthy residents aged ≥ 40 years in Kaohsiung City and Tainan City, respectively, to assess the seroprevalence of anti-DENV IgG in 2016. Seropositive samples were verified to exclude cross-reaction from Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), using DENV/JEV-NS1 indirect IgG ELISA. We further identified viral serotypes and secondary DENV infections among positive samples in the two cities. The overall age-standardized seroprevalence of DENV-IgG among participants was 25.77% in Kaohsiung and 11.40% in Tainan, and the seroprevalence was significantly higher in older age groups of both cities. Although the percentages of secondary DENV infection in Kaohsiung and Tainan were very similar (43.09% and 44.76%, respectively), DENV-1 and DENV-2 spanned a wider age range in Kaohsiung, whereas DENV-2 was dominant in Tainan. As very few studies have obtained the serostatus of DENV infection in older adults and the elderly, this study highlights the need for further investigation into antibody status, as well as the safety and efficacy of dengue vaccination in these older populations.