Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years.

Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial-interglacial cycles2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance.

1.36 million years of Mediterranean forest refugium dynamics in response to glacial-interglacial cycle strength.

The sediment record from Lake Ohrid (Southwestern Balkans) represents the longest continuous lake archive in Europe, extending back to 1.36 Ma. We reconstruct the vegetation history based on pollen analysis of the DEEP core to reveal changes in vegetation cover and forest diversity during glacial-interglacial (G-IG) cycles and early basin development. The earliest lake phase saw a significantly different composition rich in relict tree taxa and few herbs. Subsequent establishment of a permanent steppic herb association around 1.2 Ma implies a threshold response to changes in moisture availability and temperature and gradual adjustment of the basin morphology. A change in the character of G-IG cycles during the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition is reflected in the record by reorganization of the vegetation from obliquity- to eccentricity-paced cycles. Based on a quantitative analysis of tree taxa richness, the first large-scale decline in tree diversity occurred around 0.94 Ma. Subsequent variations in tree richness were largely driven by the amplitude and duration of G-IG cycles. Significant tree richness declines occurred in periods with abundant dry herb associations, pointing to aridity affecting tree population survival. Assessment of long-term legacy effects between global climate and regional vegetation change reveals a significant influence of cool interglacial conditions on subsequent glacial vegetation composition and diversity. This effect is contrary to observations at high latitudes, where glacial intensity is known to control subsequent interglacial vegetation, and the evidence demonstrates that the Lake Ohrid catchment functioned as a refugium for both thermophilous and temperate tree species.

Climate change and human impacts on aquatic communities at Etoliko Lagoon in western Greece.

The Etoliko Lagoon in western Greece has experienced extensive human modification since the 20th century, both on the surrounding land and in the aquatic environment. To examine human impacts and disentangle climatic from anthropogenic changes, we present a suite of biomarker records that span the past two centuries (∼1790-2011). Specifically, we use terrigenous (n-alkanes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and phytosterols) and aquatic (dinosterol, brassicasterol, cholesterol, and stigmasterol) biomarkers to document changes in nutrient inputs, combustion, and algal productivity. During most of the 19th and 20th centuries, aquatic communities respond to temperature, forced mainly by solar irradiance and volcanic activity, and precipitation, controlled largely by summer and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns that determine freshwater runoff. PAHs illustrate the acceleration of coal combustion during the 1800s, and declining concentrations since the 1950s correspond to the implementation of emission controls and reductions in rainfall that likely inhibited PAH transport. As human pressures increased in the late 1900s and water column anoxia grew, the absence of a clear human waste and eutrophication signal suggests that other factors also contributed to limited oxygen availability. Overall, environmental degradation of the late 20th and early 21st centuries is clear and can be attributed to a combination of especially arid conditions and human interferences that altered lagoon hydrography, trophic state, and aquatic community composition.

Atmospheric CO2 forcing on Mediterranean biomes during the past 500 kyrs.

There is growing concern on the survival of Mediterranean forests under the projected near-future droughts as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Here we determine the resilience of Mediterranean forests across the entire range of climatic boundary conditions realized during the past 500 kyrs based on continuous pollen and geochemical records of (sub)centennial-scale resolution from drillcores from Tenaghi Philippon, Greece. Using convergent cross-mapping we provide empirical confirmation that global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) may affect Mediterranean vegetation through forcing on moisture availability. Our analysis documents two stable vegetation regimes across the wide range of CO2 and moisture levels realized during the past four glacial-interglacial cycles, with abrupt shifts from forest to steppe biomes occurring when a threshold in precipitation is crossed. Our approach highlights that a CO2-driven moisture decrease in the near future may bear an impending risk for abrupt vegetation regime shifts prompting forest loss in the Mediterranean region.

Palynological data for the Late Glacial and Holocene (14.5-0 ka BP) from Füramoos, Southern Germany.

We here present high-resolution palynological data from the Füramoos peat bog, located in the alpine foreland of Southern Germany. The data represent raw pollen counts of major arboreal pollen as well as agricultural indicator taxa for the Late Glacial and Holocene (14.5 ka BP to present) at Füramoos with an average temporal resolution of 100 years (50 years during critical intervals). The data are also provided as percentages, which are calculated based on the total sum of pollen grains, excluding pollen grains of sedges (Cyperaceae) and strictly aquatic taxa. The data yield insight into the vegetation dynamics in Central Europe in response to climatic and anthropogenic forcing, which are an integral part of the original research article (Kern et al., 2021). Considering its high temporal resolution and the robust age-depth model, the dataset is ideally suited to be included in regional syntheses of vegetation dynamics in Central Europe from the Late Glacial onwards. In addition to the data, we provide a detailed description of the Füramoos site and detail the palynological processing and analysing techniques used.

XRF core scanning yields reliable semiquantitative data on the elemental composition of highly organic-rich sediments: Evidence from the Füramoos peat bog (Southern Germany).

X-ray fluorescence core scanning (XRF-CS) has become a standard tool in paleoenvironmental studies. Allowing rapid, inexpensive and non-destructive analysis of the elemental composition of sediment cores at high spatial resolution, it is ideally suited for the reconstruction of short-term climatic change. However, its applicability to cores consisting of peat and other highly organic-rich sediments has yet remained poorly explored. We have therefore investigated the application of XRF-CS to two cores consisting of ombrotrophic peat and of fen peat and organic-rich muds of Late Glacial-Holocene and Eemian age, respectively, from a peat bog in Southern Germany using an Avaatech 4th-generation XRF core scanner. The XRF-CS-derived distributions of elements widely used in (paleo)environmental research (i.e., Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, S, Si, and Ti) were systematically compared to the results of inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry analyses. For the Late Glacial-Holocene peat core, XRF-CS yielded reliable semiquantitative data for the majority of the investigated elements (i.e., Ca, Fe, K, Mn, S, Si, and Ti), with R2 ≥ 0.5. XRF-CS of the Eemian fen peat and organic-rich muds yielded reliable data for Al, K, S, and Ti (R2 ≥ 0.5) and, to a lesser extent, for Fe (R2 = 0.46). and Si (R2 = 0.25). This indicates that XRF-CS allows to semiquantitatively reconstruct the distribution of the majority of paleoclimatically relevant elements in peat and other highly organic-rich sediments. Hence, XRF-CS is well suited to complement the analytical toolbox for the paleoenvironmental study of such sediments.