New insights into the paradox between smoking and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19): Insufficient evidence for a causal association.

AIMS: Previous studies have reported a 'smoker's paradox', where people who smoke appear to be protected against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection (COVID-19). This conflicts with well-established evidence that people who smoke are generally more vulnerable to respiratory infections. In this study, we aimed to validate the association between smoking and SARS-CoV-2 infection in a general Dutch population, and to evaluate the evidence underlying the possible causal relationship between smoking and SARS-CoV-2 infection by applying a modern adaptation of the Bradford Hill criteria. METHODS: In total, 57,833 participants from the Lifelines Cohort Study were included in the analysis. Smoking status, including never smoker, current smoker, and former smoker, was derived from the Lifelines general assessment between 2014 and 2017, while SARS-CoV-2 infection status was derived from an additional COVID-19 questionnaire from 2021 to 2022. Logistic regressions were used for the association between smoking status and infection status. The adapted Bradford Hill's criteria, including the strength of association (including an analysis of plausible confounding), plausibility, temporality and study design suitability, were applied to evaluate the existing literature. RESULTS: We found, compared with never smokers, an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection for former smokers (odds ratio (OR)=1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.01-1.13), but a reduced risk for current smokers (OR=0.85, 95% CI=0.79-0.92), after adjusting for several relevant covariates. However, we discerned a possible explanation of the smoker's paradox since we observed that current smokers were more likely to be non-responders to the COVID-19 questions and, more importantly, these non-responders were more likely to have other established risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection. CONCLUSIONS: There is insufficient evidence to suggest that smoking protects against SARS-CoV-2 infection. According to the adapted Bradford Hill's criteria, we observed a high inconsistency between study results, a high possibility for residual confounding and no clear evidence for biological plausibility. Future studies should include linkage with the confirmed testing results from national healthcare registries to mitigate avoidable bias.

Breast Cancer Polygenic Risk Score and Contralateral Breast Cancer Risk.

Previous research has shown that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can be used to stratify women according to their risk of developing primary invasive breast cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the association between a recently validated PRS of 313 germline variants (PRS313) and contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk. We included 56,068 women of European ancestry diagnosed with first invasive breast cancer from 1990 onward with follow-up from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Metachronous CBC risk (N = 1,027) according to the distribution of PRS313 was quantified using Cox regression analyses. We assessed PRS313 interaction with age at first diagnosis, family history, morphology, ER status, PR status, and HER2 status, and (neo)adjuvant therapy. In studies of Asian women, with limited follow-up, CBC risk associated with PRS313 was assessed using logistic regression for 340 women with CBC compared with 12,133 women with unilateral breast cancer. Higher PRS313 was associated with increased CBC risk: hazard ratio per standard deviation (SD) = 1.25 (95%CI = 1.18-1.33) for Europeans, and an OR per SD = 1.15 (95%CI = 1.02-1.29) for Asians. The absolute lifetime risks of CBC, accounting for death as competing risk, were 12.4% for European women at the 10th percentile and 20.5% at the 90th percentile of PRS313. We found no evidence of confounding by or interaction with individual characteristics, characteristics of the primary tumor, or treatment. The C-index for the PRS313 alone was 0.563 (95%CI = 0.547-0.586). In conclusion, PRS313 is an independent factor associated with CBC risk and can be incorporated into CBC risk prediction models to help improve stratification and optimize surveillance and treatment strategies.

Breast cancer and cardiovascular outcomes after breast cancer in survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors treated with chest radiotherapy have an increased risk of breast cancer (BC). Prior HL treatment and associated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk may limit BC treatment options. It is unknown how treatment adaptations affect BC and CVD outcomes. METHODS: The authors compared 195 BC patients treated with chest/axillary radiotherapy for HL (BC-HL) with 5988 age- and calendar year-matched patients with first primary BC (BC-1). Analyses included cumulative incidence functions and Cox regression models, accounting for tumor characteristics and BC treatment. RESULTS: Compared to BC-1 patients, BC-HL patients received anthracycline-containing chemotherapy (23.7% vs. 43.8%, p < .001) and breast-conserving surgery followed by radiotherapy (7.1% vs. 57.7%, p < .001) less often. BC treatment considerations were reported for 71% of BC-HL patients. BC-HL patients had a significantly higher risk of 15-year overall mortality than BC-1 patients (61% vs. 23%). Furthermore, risks of BC-specific mortality and nonfatal BC events were significantly increased among BC-HL patients, also when accounting for tumor and treatment characteristics (2.2- to 4.5-fold). BC-HL patients with a screen-detected BC had a significantly reduced (61%) BC-specific mortality. One-third of BC-HL patients had CVD at BC-diagnosis, compared to <0.1% of BC-1 patients. Fifteen-year CVD-specific mortality and CVD incidence were significantly higher in BC-HL patients than in BC-1 patients (15.2% vs. 0.4% and 40.4% vs. 6.8%, respectively), which was due to HL treatment rather than BC treatment. CONCLUSIONS: BC-HL patients experience a higher burden of CVD and worse BC outcomes than BC-1 patients. Clinicians should be aware of increased CVD risk when selecting BC treatment for HL survivors. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with breast cancer after Hodgkin lymphoma (BC-HL) may have limited options for BC treatment, due to earlier HL treatment and an associated increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). BC treatment considerations were reported for 71% of BC-HL patients. We examined whether BC-HL patients have a higher risk of CVD or BC events (recurrences/metastases) compared to patients with breast cancer that had no earlier tumors (BC-1). We observed a higher burden of CVD and worse BC outcomes in HL patients compared to BC-1 patients. Clinicians should be aware of increased CVD risk when selecting BC treatment for HL survivors.

Comprehensive trends in incidence, treatment, survival and mortality of first primary invasive breast cancer stratified by age, stage and receptor subtype in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2017.

Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of trends in incidence, survival, mortality and treatment of first primary invasive breast cancer (BC), according to age, stage and receptor subtype in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2017. Data from all women diagnosed with first primary stage I to IV BC (N = 320 249) were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. BC mortality and general population data were retrieved from Statistics Netherlands. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated with annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) statistics. The relative survival (RS) was used as estimator for disease-specific survival. The BC incidence for all BC patients combined significantly increased until 2013 from 126 to 158 per 100 000 person-years, after which a declining trend was observed. Surgery became less extensive, but (neo-)adjuvant systemic treatments and their combinations were given more frequently. The RS improved for all age groups and for most stages and receptor subtypes, but remained stable for all subtypes since 2012 to 2013 and since 2000 to 2009 for Stage IV BC at 15 years of follow-up. Overall, the 5- and 10-year RS increased from 76.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 76.1, 77.4) and 55.9% (95% CI: 54.7, 57.1) in 1989 to 1999 to 91.0% (95% CI: 90.5, 91.5) and 82.9% (95% CI: 82.2, 83.5), respectively, in 2010 to 2016. BC mortality improved regardless of age and overall decreased from 57 to 35 per 100 000 person-years between 1989 and 2017. In conclusion, the BC incidence in the Netherlands has steadily increased since 1989, but the latest trends show promising declines. Survival improved markedly for most patients and the mortality decreased regardless of age.

Prediction of contralateral breast cancer: external validation of risk calculators in 20 international cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Three tools are currently available to predict the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). We aimed to compare the performance of the Manchester formula, CBCrisk, and PredictCBC in patients with invasive breast cancer (BC). METHODS: We analyzed data of 132,756 patients (4682 CBC) from 20 international studies with a median follow-up of 8.8 years. Prediction performance included discrimination, quantified as a time-dependent Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary BC, and calibration, quantified as the expected-observed (E/O) ratio at 5 and 10 years and the calibration slope. RESULTS: The AUC at 10 years was: 0.58 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.57-0.59) for CBCrisk; 0.60 (95% CI 0.59-0.61) for the Manchester formula; 0.63 (95% CI 0.59-0.66) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.56-0.62) for PredictCBC-1A (for settings where BRCA1/2 mutation status is available) and PredictCBC-1B (for the general population), respectively. The E/O at 10 years: 0.82 (95% CI 0.51-1.32) for CBCrisk; 1.53 (95% CI 0.63-3.73) for the Manchester formula; 1.28 (95% CI 0.63-2.58) for PredictCBC-1A and 1.35 (95% CI 0.65-2.77) for PredictCBC-1B. The calibration slope was 1.26 (95% CI 1.01-1.50) for CBCrisk; 0.90 (95% CI 0.79-1.02) for PredictCBC-1A; 0.81 (95% CI 0.63-0.99) for PredictCBC-1B, and 0.39 (95% CI 0.34-0.43) for the Manchester formula. CONCLUSIONS: Current CBC risk prediction tools provide only moderate discrimination and the Manchester formula was poorly calibrated. Better predictors and re-calibration are needed to improve CBC prediction and to identify low- and high-CBC risk patients for clinical decision-making.

Prediction and clinical utility of a contralateral breast cancer risk model.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer survivors are at risk for contralateral breast cancer (CBC), with the consequent burden of further treatment and potentially less favorable prognosis. We aimed to develop and validate a CBC risk prediction model and evaluate its applicability for clinical decision-making. METHODS: We included data of 132,756 invasive non-metastatic breast cancer patients from 20 studies with 4682 CBC events and a median follow-up of 8.8 years. We developed a multivariable Fine and Gray prediction model (PredictCBC-1A) including patient, primary tumor, and treatment characteristics and BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, accounting for the competing risks of death and distant metastasis. We also developed a model without BRCA1/2 mutation status (PredictCBC-1B) since this information was available for only 6% of patients and is routinely unavailable in the general breast cancer population. Prediction performance was evaluated using calibration and discrimination, calculated by a time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary breast cancer, and an internal-external cross-validation procedure. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net benefit of the model to quantify clinical utility. RESULTS: In the multivariable model, BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, family history, and systemic adjuvant treatment showed the strongest associations with CBC risk. The AUC of PredictCBC-1A was 0.63 (95% prediction interval (PI) at 5 years, 0.52-0.74; at 10 years, 0.53-0.72). Calibration-in-the-large was -0.13 (95% PI: -1.62-1.37), and the calibration slope was 0.90 (95% PI: 0.73-1.08). The AUC of Predict-1B at 10 years was 0.59 (95% PI: 0.52-0.66); calibration was slightly lower. Decision curve analysis for preventive contralateral mastectomy showed potential clinical utility of PredictCBC-1A between thresholds of 4-10% 10-year CBC risk for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a reasonably calibrated model to predict the risk of CBC in women of European-descent; however, prediction accuracy was moderate. Our model shows potential for improved risk counseling, but decision-making regarding contralateral preventive mastectomy, especially in the general breast cancer population where limited information of the mutation status in BRCA1/2 is available, remains challenging.

Meaningful patient and public engagement in dissemination-embedding co-production in dementia research.

Background: Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement (PPIE) is still underutilised in both dementia research and corresponding dissemination activities. Aim: To describe the methods, format, and lessons learned in co-creating and co-producing a dissemination strategy for a research project focused on establishing patient-centred outcome measures into routine palliative community care for persons living with dementia (PLWD) and their informal carers. Materials and methods: A participatory, hybrid-format workshop was conducted to co-create the dissemination strategy with a PPIE group. A video presentation of findings and a list of prompts shared prior to the workshop were used to elicit views on dissemination strategies and knowledge translation. The workshop was followed up with a survey to consolidate the dissemination strategy. Workshop minutes and survey responses were analysed using qualitative thematic analysis. Results: 22 participants from our diverse PPIE group attended the workshop. Two major themes emerged: (a) Knowledge translation: building bridges between research and practise, and (b) Collaboration and dissemination: everyone's voice is needed. Participants suggested critical changes to dissemination methods and materials. Successful knowledge translation depends on a strong evidence base. For this, materials need to be tailored to specific audiences. Everyone's voice needs to be integrated through co-production in dissemination activities by PPIE members to influence societal change. Tailored dissemination activities within a dissemination strategy were co-created spanning all phases of the research cycle. Discussion: Informing and educating the public and policymakers about the needs of PLWD relies on disseminating and fostering knowledge translation throughout all phases of the research cycle.

Risk of death due to COVID-19 among current and former smokers in the Netherlands: a population-based quasi-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Research on smoking as a risk factor for death due to COVID-19 remains inconclusive, with different studies demonstrating either an increased or decreased risk of COVID-19 death among smokers. To investigate this controversy, this study uses data from the Netherlands to assess the relationship between smoking and death due to COVID-19. METHODS: In this population-based quasi-cohort study, we linked pseudonymized individual data on smoking status from the 2016 and 2020 'Health Monitor Adults and Elderly' in the Netherlands (n = 914 494) to data from the cause-of-death registry (n = 2962). Death due to COVID-19 in 2020 or 2021 was taken as the main outcome. Poisson regression modelling was used to calculate relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs of death due to COVID-19 for current and former smokers compared with never smokers while adjusting for relevant confounders (age, sex, educational level, body mass index and perceived health). RESULTS: Former smokers had a higher risk of death due to COVID-19 compared with never smokers across unadjusted (RR, 2.22; 95% CI, 2.04-2.42), age-sex-adjusted (RR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.22-1.55) and fully adjusted (RR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.16-1.45) models. Current smokers had a slightly higher risk of death due to COVID-19 compared with never smokers after adjusting for age and sex (RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.00-1.48) and after full adjustment (RR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.90-1.29), although the results were statistically non-significant. CONCLUSIONS: People with a history of smoking appear to have a higher risk of death due to COVID-19. Further research is needed to investigate which underlying mechanisms may explain this.

The use of patient sitters at a Swiss hospital: A retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: Patient sitters are frequently used in acute care hospitals to provide one-to-one care for agitated or disorientated patients to assure the safety and well-being of patients. However, there is still a lack of evidence on the use of patient sitters, especially in Switzerland. Therefore, the aim of this study was to describe and explore the use of patient sitters in a Swiss acute care hospital. METHODS: In this retrospective, observational study we included all inpatients who were hospitalized between January and December 2018 in a Swiss acute care hospital and required a paid or volunteer patient sitter. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the extent of patient sitter use, patient characteristics, and organizational factors. For the subgroup analysis between internal medicine and surgical patients Mann-Whitney U tests and chi-square tests were used. RESULTS: Of the total of 27'855 included inpatients, 631 (2.3%) needed a patient sitter. Of these, 37.5% had a volunteer patient sitter. The median patient sitter duration per patient per stay was 18.0 hours (IQR = 8.4-41.0h). The median age was 78 years (IQR = 65.0-86.0); 76.2% of patients were over the age of 64. Delirium was diagnosed in 41% of patients, and 15% had dementia. Most of the patients showed signs of disorientation (87.3%), inappropriate behavior (84.6%), and risk of falling (86.6%). Patient sitter uses varied during the year and between surgical and internal medicine units. CONCLUSIONS: These results add to the limited body of evidence concerning patient sitter use in hospitals, supporting previous findings related to patient sitter use for delirious or geriatric patients. New findings include the subgroup analysis of internal medicine and surgical patients, as well as analysis of patient sitter use distribution throughout the year. These findings may contribute to the development of guidelines and policies regarding patient sitter use.

Risk of metachronous contralateral breast cancer in patients with primary invasive lobular breast cancer: Results from a nationwide cohort.

Lobular primary breast cancer (PBC) histology has been proposed as a risk factor for contralateral breast cancer (CBC), but results have been inconsistent. We investigated CBC risk and the impact of systemic therapy in lobular versus ductal PBC. Further, CBC characteristics following these histologic subtypes were explored. We selected 74,373 women diagnosed between 2003 and 2010 with stage I-III invasive PBC from the nationwide Netherlands Cancer Registry. We assessed absolute risk of CBC taking into account competing risks among those with lobular (n = 8903), lobular mixed with other types (n = 3512), versus ductal (n = 62,230) histology. Hazard ratios (HR) for CBC were estimated in a cause-specific Cox model, adjusting for age at PBC diagnosis, radiotherapy, chemotherapy and/or endocrine therapy. Multivariable HRs for CBC were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.04-1.33) for lobular and 1.37 (95% CI: 1.16-1.63) for lobular mixed versus ductal PBC. Ten-year cumulative CBC incidences in patients with lobular, lobular mixed versus ductal PBC were 3.2%, 3.6% versus 2.8% when treated with systemic therapy and 6.6%, 7.7% versus 5.6% in patients without systemic therapy, respectively. Metachronous CBCs were diagnosed in a less favourable stage in 19%, 26% and 23% and less favourable differentiation grade in 22%, 33% and 27% than the PBCs of patients with lobular, lobular mixed and ductal PBC, respectively. In conclusion, lobular and lobular mixed PBC histology are associated with modestly increased CBC risk. Personalised CBC risk assessment needs to consider PBC histology, including systemic treatment administration. The impact on prognosis of CBCs with unfavourable characteristics warrants further evaluation.

Contralateral breast cancer risk in patients with ductal carcinoma in situ and invasive breast cancer.

We aimed to assess contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk in patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) compared with invasive breast cancer (BC). Women diagnosed with DCIS (N = 28,003) or stage I-III BC (N = 275,836) between 1989 and 2017 were identified from the nationwide Netherlands Cancer Registry. Cumulative incidences were estimated, accounting for competing risks, and hazard ratios (HRs) for metachronous invasive CBC. To evaluate effects of adjuvant systemic therapy and screening, separate analyses were performed for stage I BC without adjuvant systemic therapy and by mode of first BC detection. Multivariable models including clinico-pathological and treatment data were created to assess CBC risk prediction performance in DCIS patients. The 10-year cumulative incidence of invasive CBC was 4.8% for DCIS patients (CBC = 1334). Invasive CBC risk was higher in DCIS patients compared with invasive BC overall (HR = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-1.17), and lower compared with stage I BC without adjuvant systemic therapy (HR = 0.87; 95% CI = 0.82-0.92). In patients diagnosed ≥2011, the HR for invasive CBC was 1.38 (95% CI = 1.35-1.68) after screen-detected DCIS compared with screen-detected invasive BC, and was 2.14 (95% CI = 1.46-3.13) when not screen-detected. The C-index was 0.52 (95% CI = 0.50-0.54) for invasive CBC prediction in DCIS patients. In conclusion, CBC risks are low overall. DCIS patients had a slightly higher risk of invasive CBC compared with invasive BC, likely explained by the risk-reducing effect of (neo)adjuvant systemic therapy among BC patients. For support of clinical decision making more information is needed to differentiate CBC risks among DCIS patients.

The Influence of Adjuvant Systemic Regimens on Contralateral Breast Cancer Risk and Receptor Subtype.

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of breast cancer (BC) survivors are at risk of developing contralateral breast cancer (CBC). We aimed to investigate the influence of various adjuvant systemic regimens on, subtype-specific, risk of CBC. METHODS: This population-based cohort study included female patients diagnosed with first invasive BC between 2003 and 2010; follow-up was complete until 2016. Clinico-pathological data were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and additional data on receptor status through linkage with PALGA: the Dutch Pathology Registry. Cumulative incidences (death and distant metastases as competing risk) and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated for all invasive metachronous CBC and CBC subtypes. RESULTS: Of 83 144 BC patients, 2816 developed a CBC; the 10-year cumulative incidence was 3.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.7% to 4.0%). Overall, adjuvant chemotherapy (HR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.80), endocrine therapy (HR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.41 to 0.52), and trastuzumab with chemotherapy (HR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.45 to 0.73) were strongly associated with a reduced CBC risk. Specifically, taxane-containing chemotherapy (HR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.62) and aromatase inhibitors (HR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.23 to 0.44) were associated with a large CBC risk reduction. More detailed analyses showed that endocrine therapy statistically significantly decreased the risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive CBC (HR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.47) but not ER-negative CBC (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 0.90 to 1.93) compared with no endocrine therapy. Patients receiving chemotherapy for ER-negative first BC had a higher risk of ER-negative CBC from 5 years of follow-up (HR = 2.84, 95% CI = 1.62 to 4.99) compared with patients not receiving chemotherapy for ER-negative first BC. CONCLUSION: Endocrine therapy, chemotherapy, as well as trastuzumab with chemotherapy reduce CBC risk. However, each adjuvant therapy regimen had a different impact on the CBC subtype distribution. Taxane-containing chemotherapy and aromatase inhibitors were associated with the largest CBC risk reduction.