Essen Risk Score in Prediction of Myocardial Infarction After Transient Ischemic Attack or Ischemic Stroke Without Prior Coronary Artery Disease.

Background and Purpose- More intensive secondary prevention with newer drugs may be cost-effective in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Whether some subgroups of patients who had a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke, but no prior CAD are at similar high risk of myocardial infarction as those with prior CAD remains unclear. We determined whether the Essen score identified a subset of TIA/stroke patients without known prior CAD who, nevertheless, had a high risk of myocardial infarction on current secondary prevention management. Methods- In a population-based cohort (Oxford Vascular Study) of consecutive TIA or ischemic stroke patients recruited from 2002 to 2014, 10-year actuarial risks of myocardial infarction and of recurrent ischemic stroke were determined by face-to-face follow-up in patients with and without prior CAD using Kaplan-Meier analyses. Predictive value of the Essen score was assessed with C statistic. Results- Of 2555 patients with TIA/stroke (13 070 patient-years of follow-up), 10-year risk of myocardial infarction in those without prior CAD (n=2017, 78.9%) ranged from 0.9% (95% CI, 0-1.9) at Essen score ≤1 to 29.8% (95% CI, 7.7-46.6) in those with a score ≥5 (C statistic =0.64 [95% CI, 0.57-0.71]; P<0.001). The score tended to be less predictive (difference: P=0.0460) for the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke (C statistic =0.57 [95% CI, 0.54-0.60]). Compared with patients with prior CAD (n=538, 21.1%), an Essen risk score of ≥4 (n=294, 11.5%) in those without prior CAD identified a subgroup at similar high 10-year risks of myocardial infarction (17.2% [95% CI, 6.9-26.3] versus 16.9% [95% CI, 11.5-22.0]) and of recurrent stroke (40.4% [95% CI, 26.7-51.6] versus 32.4% [95% CI, 25.2-38.8]). Conclusions- The Essen score is a simple clinical score to risk-stratify patients with TIA/stroke without prior CAD and to identify subsets who may be at sufficiently high risk of myocardial infarction and recurrent stroke to justify more intensive treatment or inclusion in trials.

Long-Term Prognosis of Patients With Transient Ischemic Attack or Stroke and Symptomatic Vascular Disease in Multiple Arterial Beds.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cerebrovascular, coronary, and peripheral vascular disease have common underlying arterial pathology and risk factors, but the clinical significance of multiple-territory disease in patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA)/ischemic stroke is unclear, particularly whether the number of clinically affected territories still predicts long-term outcome on current standard secondary prevention therapies. METHODS: In a population-based study of 92 728 individuals in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom (Oxford Vascular Study), we studied patients presenting with TIA/ischemic stroke (2002-2014) in relation to the number of other vascular beds (coronary, peripheral) affected by symptomatic (current or previous) disease. We compared the risk factor profile and long-term prognosis in patients with single- versus multiple-territory disease. RESULTS: Among 2554 patients with 10 679 patient-years of follow-up, 1842 (72.1%) had single- (TIA/stroke only), 608 (23.8%) double-, and 104 (4.1%) triple-territory symptomatic vascular disease. The number of affected vascular beds increased with the number of atherosclerotic risk factors (Ptrend<0.0001). Compared with patients with TIA/stroke only, those with multiple-territory disease had more hypertension (age/sex-adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.76-4.27; P<0.0001), diabetes mellitus (OR, 2.89; 95% CI, 2.27-3.66; P<0.0001), hypercholesterolemia (OR, 4.67; 95% CI, 3.85-5.66; P<0.0001), and current or previous smoking (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.26-1.84; P<0.0001). Triple-territory disease was particularly strongly associated with hypercholesterolemia (OR, 6.80; 95% CI, 4.39-10.53; P<0.0001). Despite more intensive secondary prevention in patients with multiple-territory disease, the 5-year risk of vascular death increased steeply with the number of territories affected (17.2% versus 30.0% versus 42.9%; P<0.0001). Compared with patients with single-territory, patients with multiple-territory disease also had higher postacute long-term risks (90 days to 10 years) of recurrent ischemic stroke (age/sex-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.04-1.81; P=0.02) and nonstroke acute vascular events (hazard ratio, 3.06; 95% CI, 2.23-4.20; P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Number of affected vascular beds appeared to be a simple clinical rule in identifying TIA/ischemic stroke patients who are at high long-term risk of nonstroke vascular events and vascular death.

Effect of coexisting vascular disease on long-term risk of recurrent events after TIA or stroke.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether patients with TIA or ischemic stroke with coexisting cardiovascular disease (i.e., history of coronary or peripheral artery disease) are still at high risk of recurrent ischemic events despite current secondary prevention guidelines. METHODS: In a population-based study in Oxfordshire, UK (Oxford Vascular Study), we studied consecutive patients with TIA or ischemic stroke for 2002-2014. Patients were treated according to current secondary prevention guidelines and we determined risks of coronary events, recurrent ischemic stroke, and major bleeding stratified by the presence of coexisting cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Among 2,555 patients (9,148 patient-years of follow-up), those (n = 640; 25.0%) with coexisting cardiovascular disease (449 coronary only; 103 peripheral only; 88 both) were at higher 10-year risk of coronary events than those without (22.8%, 95% confidence interval 17.4-27.9; vs 7.1%, 5.3-8.8; p < 0.001; age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.07, 2.24-4.21) and of recurrent ischemic stroke (31.5%, 25.1-37.4; vs 23.4%, 20.5-26.2; p = 0.0049; age- and sex-adjusted HR 1.23, 0.99-1.53), despite similar rates of use of antithrombotic and lipid-lowering medication. However, in patients with noncardioembolic TIA/stroke, risk of extracranial bleeds was also higher in those with coexisting cardiovascular disease, particularly in patients aged <75 years (8.1%, 2.8-13.0; vs 3.4%, 1.6-5.3; p = 0.0050; age- and sex-adjusted HR 2.71, 1.16-6.30), although risk of intracerebral hemorrhage was not increased (age- and sex-adjusted HR 0.36, 0.04-2.99). CONCLUSIONS: As in older studies, patients with TIA/stroke with coexisting cardiovascular disease remain at high risk of recurrent ischemic events despite current management. More intensive lipid-lowering might therefore be justified, but benefit from increased antithrombotic treatment might be offset by the higher risk of extracranial bleeding.