Network bypasses sustain complexity.

Real-world networks are neither regular nor random, a fact elegantly explained by mechanisms such as the Watts-Strogatz or the Barabási-Albert models, among others. Both mechanisms naturally create shortcuts and hubs, which while enhancing the network's connectivity, also might yield several undesired navigational effects: They tend to be overused during geodesic navigational processes-making the networks fragile-and provide suboptimal routes for diffusive-like navigation. Why, then, networks with complex topologies are ubiquitous? Here, we unveil that these models also entropically generate network bypasses: alternative routes to shortest paths which are topologically longer but easier to navigate. We develop a mathematical theory that elucidates the emergence and consolidation of network bypasses and measure their navigability gain. We apply our theory to a wide range of real-world networks and find that they sustain complexity by different amounts of network bypasses. At the top of this complexity ranking we found the human brain, which points out the importance of these results to understand the plasticity of complex systems.

Algorithmic hospital catchment area estimation using label propagation.

BACKGROUND: Hospital catchment areas define the primary population of a hospital and are central to assessing the potential demand on that hospital, for example, due to infectious disease outbreaks. METHODS: We present a novel algorithm, based on label propagation, for estimating hospital catchment areas, from the capacity of the hospital and demographics of the nearby population, and without requiring any data on hospital activity. RESULTS: The algorithm is demonstrated to produce a mapping from fine grained geographic regions to larger scale catchment areas, providing contiguous and realistic subdivisions of geographies relating to a single hospital or to a group of hospitals. In validation against an alternative approach predicated on activity data gathered during the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK, the label propagation algorithm is found to have a high level of agreement and perform at a similar level of accuracy. RESULTS: The algorithm can be used to make estimates of hospital catchment areas in new situations where activity data is not yet available, such as in the early stages of a infections disease outbreak.

COVID-19 and Its Global Economic Impact.

Pandemics are enormous threats to the world that impact all aspects of our lives, especially the global economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged since December 2019 and has affected the global economy in many ways. As the world becomes more interconnected, the economic impacts of the pandemic become more serious. In addition to increased health expenditures and reduced labor force, the pandemic has hit the supply and demand chain massively and caused trouble for manufacturers who have to fire some of their employees or delay their economic activities to prevent more loss. With the closure of manufacturers and companies and reduced travel rates, usage of oil after the beginning of the pandemic has decreased significantly that was unprecedented in the last 30 years. The mining industry is a critical sector in several developing countries, and the COVID-19 pandemic has hit this industry too. Also, world stock markets declined as investors started to become concerned about the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The tourism industry and airlines have also experienced an enormous loss too. The GDP has reduced, and this pandemic will cost the world more than 2 trillion at the end of 2020.

The dynamics of norm change in the cultural evolution of language.

What happens when a new social convention replaces an old one? While the possible forces favoring norm change-such as institutions or committed activists-have been identified for a long time, little is known about how a population adopts a new convention, due to the difficulties of finding representative data. Here, we address this issue by looking at changes that occurred to 2,541 orthographic and lexical norms in English and Spanish through the analysis of a large corpora of books published between the years 1800 and 2008. We detect three markedly distinct patterns in the data, depending on whether the behavioral change results from the action of a formal institution, an informal authority, or a spontaneous process of unregulated evolution. We propose a simple evolutionary model able to capture all of the observed behaviors, and we show that it reproduces quantitatively the empirical data. This work identifies general mechanisms of norm change, and we anticipate that it will be of interest to researchers investigating the cultural evolution of language and, more broadly, human collective behavior.

On a Dynamical Approach to Some Prime Number Sequences.

We show how the cross-disciplinary transfer of techniques from dynamical systems theory to number theory can be a fruitful avenue for research. We illustrate this idea by exploring from a nonlinear and symbolic dynamics viewpoint certain patterns emerging in some residue sequences generated from the prime number sequence. We show that the sequence formed by the residues of the primes modulo k are maximally chaotic and, while lacking forbidden patterns, unexpectedly display a non-trivial spectrum of Renyi entropies which suggest that every block of size m > 1 , while admissible, occurs with different probability. This non-uniform distribution of blocks for m > 1 contrasts Dirichlet's theorem that guarantees equiprobability for m = 1 . We then explore in a similar fashion the sequence of prime gap residues. We numerically find that this sequence is again chaotic (positivity of Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy), however chaos is weaker as forbidden patterns emerge for every block of size m > 1 . We relate the onset of these forbidden patterns with the divisibility properties of integers, and estimate the densities of gap block residues via Hardy-Littlewood k-tuple conjecture. We use this estimation to argue that the amount of admissible blocks is non-uniformly distributed, what supports the fact that the spectrum of Renyi entropies is again non-trivial in this case. We complete our analysis by applying the chaos game to these symbolic sequences, and comparing the Iterated Function System (IFS) attractors found for the experimental sequences with appropriate null models.

Analytical estimation of the correlation dimension of integer lattices.

Recently [L. Lacasa and J. Gómez-Gardeñes, Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 168703 (2013)], a fractal dimension has been proposed to characterize the geometric structure of networks. This measure is an extension to graphs of the so called correlation dimension, originally proposed by Grassberger and Procaccia to describe the geometry of strange attractors in dissipative chaotic systems. The calculation of the correlation dimension of a graph is based on the local information retrieved from a random walker navigating the network. In this contribution, we study such quantity for some limiting synthetic spatial networks and obtain analytical results on agreement with the previously reported numerics. In particular, we show that up to first order, the correlation dimension ß of integer lattices ℤ(d) coincides with the Haussdorf dimension of their coarsely equivalent Euclidean spaces, ß = d.

Higher-order correlations reveal complex memory in temporal hypergraphs.

Many real-world complex systems are characterized by interactions in groups that change in time. Current temporal network approaches, however, are unable to describe group dynamics, as they are based on pairwise interactions only. Here, we use time-varying hypergraphs to describe such systems, and we introduce a framework based on higher-order correlations to characterize their temporal organization. The analysis of human interaction data reveals the existence of coherent and interdependent mesoscopic structures, thus capturing aggregation, fragmentation and nucleation processes in social systems. We introduce a model of temporal hypergraphs with non-Markovian group interactions, which reveals complex memory as a fundamental mechanism underlying the emerging pattern in the data.

Correlation dimension of complex networks.

We propose a new measure to characterize the dimension of complex networks based on the ergodic theory of dynamical systems. This measure is derived from the correlation sum of a trajectory generated by a random walker navigating the network, and extends the classical Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm to the context of complex networks. The method is validated with reliable results for both synthetic networks and real-world networks such as the world air-transportation network or urban networks, and provides a computationally fast way for estimating the dimensionality of networks which only relies on the local information provided by the walkers.

Irreversibility of symbolic time series: A cautionary tale.

Many empirical time series are genuinely symbolic: Examples range from link activation patterns in network science, to DNA coding or firing patterns in neuroscience, to cryptography or combinatorics on words. In some other contexts, the underlying time series is actually real valued, and symbolization is applied subsequently, as in symbolic dynamics of chaotic systems. Among several time series quantifiers, time series irreversibility-the difference between forward and backward statistics in stationary time series-is of great relevance. However, the irreversible character of symbolized time series is not always equivalent to the one of the underlying real-valued signal, leading to some misconceptions and confusion on interpretability. Such confusion is even bigger for binary time series-a classical way to encode chaotic trajectories via symbolic dynamics. In this paper we aim to clarify some usual misconceptions and provide theoretical grounding for the practical analysis-and interpretation-of time irreversibility in symbolic time series. We outline sources of irreversibility in stationary symbolic sequences coming from frequency asymmetries of nonpalindromic pairs which we enumerate, and prove that binary time series cannot show any irreversibility based on words of length m<4, thus discussing the implications and sources of confusion. We also study irreversibility in the context of symbolic dynamics, and clarify why these can be reversible even when the underlying dynamical system is not, such as the case of the fully chaotic logistic map.

Chaotic renormalization group flow and entropy gradients over Haros graphs.

Haros graphs have been recently introduced as a set of graphs bijectively related to real numbers in the unit interval. Here we consider the iterated dynamics of a graph operator R over the set of Haros graphs. This operator was previously defined in the realm of graph-theoretical characterization of low-dimensional nonlinear dynamics and has a renormalization group (RG) structure. We find that the dynamics of R over Haros graphs is complex and includes unstable periodic orbits of arbitrary period and nonmixing aperiodic orbits, overall portraiting a chaotic RG flow. We identify a single RG stable fixed point whose basin of attraction is associated with the set of rational numbers, and find periodic RG orbits that relate to (pure) quadratic irrationals and aperiodic RG orbits, related with (nonmixing) families of nonquadratic algebraic irrationals and transcendental numbers. Finally, we show that the graph entropy of Haros graphs is globally decreasing as the RG flows towards its stable fixed point, albeit in a strictly nonmonotonic way, and that such graph entropy remains constant inside the periodic RG orbit associated to a subset of irrationals, the so-called metallic ratios. We discuss the possible physical interpretation of such chaotic RG flow and put results regarding entropy gradients along RG flow in the context of c-theorems.

Lyapunov exponents for temporal networks.

By interpreting a temporal network as a trajectory of a latent graph dynamical system, we introduce the concept of dynamical instability of a temporal network and construct a measure to estimate the network maximum Lyapunov exponent (nMLE) of a temporal network trajectory. Extending conventional algorithmic methods from nonlinear time-series analysis to networks, we show how to quantify sensitive dependence on initial conditions and estimate the nMLE directly from a single network trajectory. We validate our method for a range of synthetic generative network models displaying low- and high-dimensional chaos and finally discuss potential applications.

Analytical properties of horizontal visibility graphs in the Feigenbaum scenario.

Time series are proficiently converted into graphs via the horizontal visibility (HV) algorithm, which prompts interest in its capability for capturing the nature of different classes of series in a network context. We have recently shown [B. Luque et al., PLoS ONE 6, 9 (2011)] that dynamical systems can be studied from a novel perspective via the use of this method. Specifically, the period-doubling and band-splitting attractor cascades that characterize unimodal maps transform into families of graphs that turn out to be independent of map nonlinearity or other particulars. Here, we provide an in depth description of the HV treatment of the Feigenbaum scenario, together with analytical derivations that relate to the degree distributions, mean distances, clustering coefficients, etc., associated to the bifurcation cascades and their accumulation points. We describe how the resultant families of graphs can be framed into a renormalization group scheme in which fixed-point graphs reveal their scaling properties. These fixed points are then re-derived from an entropy optimization process defined for the graph sets, confirming a suggested connection between renormalization group and entropy optimization. Finally, we provide analytical and numerical results for the graph entropy and show that it emulates the Lyapunov exponent of the map independently of its sign.

The shape of memory in temporal networks.

How to best define, detect and characterize network memory, i.e. the dependence of a network's structure on its past, is currently a matter of debate. Here we show that the memory of a temporal network is inherently multidimensional, and we introduce a mathematical framework for defining and efficiently estimating the microscopic shape of memory, which characterises how the activity of each link intertwines with the activities of all other links. We validate our methodology on a range of synthetic models, and we then study the memory shape of real-world temporal networks spanning social, technological and biological systems, finding that these networks display heterogeneous memory shapes. In particular, online and offline social networks are markedly different, with the latter showing richer memory and memory scales. Our theory also elucidates the phenomenon of emergent virtual loops and provides a novel methodology for exploring the dynamically rich structure of complex systems.

From time series to complex networks: the visibility graph.

In this work we present a simple and fast computational method, the visibility algorithm, that converts a time series into a graph. The constructed graph inherits several properties of the series in its structure. Thereby, periodic series convert into regular graphs, and random series do so into random graphs. Moreover, fractal series convert into scale-free networks, enhancing the fact that power law degree distributions are related to fractality, something highly discussed recently. Some remarkable examples and analytical tools are outlined to test the method's reliability. Many different measures, recently developed in the complex network theory, could by means of this new approach characterize time series from a new point of view.

Household bubbles and COVID-19 transmission: insights from percolation theory.

In the era of social distancing to curb the spread of COVID-19, bubbling is the combining of two or more households to create an exclusive larger group. The impact of bubbling on COVID-19 transmission is challenging to quantify because of the complex social structures involved. We developed a network description of households in the UK, using the configuration model to link households. We explored the impact of bubbling scenarios by joining together households of various sizes. For each bubbling scenario, we calculated the percolation threshold, that is, the number of connections per individual required for a giant component to form, numerically and theoretically. We related the percolation threshold to the household reproduction number. We find that bubbling scenarios in which single-person households join with another household have a minimal impact on network connectivity and transmission potential. Ubiquitous scenarios where all households form a bubble are likely to lead to an extensive transmission that is hard to control. The impact of plausible scenarios, with variable uptake and heterogeneous bubble sizes, can be mitigated with reduced numbers of contacts outside the household. Bubbling of households comes at an increased risk of transmission; however, under certain circumstances risks can be modest and could be balanced by other changes in behaviours. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Correction: A flexible method for optimising sharing of healthcare resources and demand in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0241027.].

Estimates of regional infectivity of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom following imposition of social distancing measures.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reproduction number has become an essential parameter for monitoring disease transmission across settings and guiding interventions. The UK published weekly estimates of the reproduction number in the UK starting in May 2020 which are formed from multiple independent estimates. In this paper, we describe methods used to estimate the time-varying SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number for the UK. We used multiple data sources and estimated a serial interval distribution from published studies. We describe regional variability and how estimates evolved during the early phases of the outbreak, until the relaxing of social distancing measures began to be introduced in early July. Our analysis is able to guide localized control and provides a longitudinal example of applying these methods over long timescales. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

A population-based controlled experiment assessing the epidemiological impact of digital contact tracing.

While Digital contact tracing (DCT) has been argued to be a valuable complement to manual tracing in the containment of COVID-19, no empirical evidence of its effectiveness is available to date. Here, we report the results of a 4-week population-based controlled experiment that took place in La Gomera (Canary Islands, Spain) between June and July 2020, where we assessed the epidemiological impact of the Spanish DCT app Radar Covid. After a substantial communication campaign, we estimate that at least 33% of the population adopted the technology and further showed relatively high adherence and compliance as well as a quick turnaround time. The app detects about 6.3 close-contacts per primary simulated infection, a significant percentage being contacts with strangers, although the spontaneous follow-up rate of these notified cases is low. Overall, these results provide experimental evidence of the potential usefulness of DCT during an epidemic outbreak in a real population.