Association of preoperative anaemia with cardiopulmonary exercise capacity and postoperative outcomes in noncardiac surgery: a substudy of the Measurement of Exercise Tolerance before Surgery (METS) Study.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative anaemia is associated with elevated risks of postoperative complications. This association may be explained by confounding related to poor cardiopulmonary fitness. We conducted a pre-specified substudy of the Measurement of Exercise Tolerance before Surgery (METS) study to examine the associations of preoperative haemoglobin concentration with preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing performance (peak oxygen consumption, anaerobic threshold) and postoperative complications. METHODS: The substudy included a nested cross-sectional analysis and nested cohort analysis. In the cross-sectional study (1279 participants), multivariate linear regression modelling was used to determine the adjusted association of haemoglobin concentration with peak oxygen consumption and anaerobic threshold. In the nested cohort study (1256 participants), multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to determine the adjusted association of haemoglobin concentration, peak oxygen consumption, and anaerobic threshold with the primary endpoint (composite outcome of death, cardiovascular complications, acute kidney injury, or surgical site infection) and secondary endpoint (moderate or severe complications). RESULTS: Haemoglobin concentration explained 3.8% of the variation in peak oxygen consumption and anaerobic threshold (P<0.001). Although not associated with the primary endpoint, haemoglobin concentration was associated with moderate or severe complications after adjustment for peak oxygen consumption (odds ratio=0.86 per 10 g L-1 increase; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.96) or anaerobic threshold (odds ratio=0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.97). Lower peak oxygen consumption was associated with moderate or severe complications without effect modification by haemoglobin concentration (P=0.12). CONCLUSION: Haemoglobin concentration explains a small proportion of variation in exercise capacity. Both anaemia and poor functional capacity are associated with postoperative complications and may therefore be modifiable targets for preoperative optimisation.

Impact of the pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review on provincial concordance with respect to cancer drug funding decisions and time to funding.

BACKGROUND: The pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review (pcodr) was implemented in 2011 to address uneven drug coverage and lack of transparency with respect to the various provincial cancer drug review processes in Canada. We evaluated the impact of the pcodr on provincial decision concordance and time from Notice of Compliance (noc) to drug funding. METHODS: In a retrospective review, Health Canada's Drug Product Database was used to identify new indications for cancer drugs between January 2003 and May 2014, and provincial formulary listings for drug-funding dates and decisions between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2014 were retrieved. Multiple linear models and quantile regressions were used to evaluate changes in time to decision-making before and after the implementation of the pcodr. Agreement of decisions between provinces was evaluated using kappa statistics. RESULTS: Data were available from 9 provinces (all Canadian provinces except Quebec), identifying 88 indications that represented 51 unique cancer drugs. Two provinces lacked available data for all 88 indications at the time of data collection. Interprovincial concordance in drug funding decisions significantly increased after the pcodr's implementation (Brennan-Prediger coefficient: 0.54 pre-pcodr vs. 0.78 post-pcodr; p = 0.002). Nationwide, the median number of days from Health Canada's noc date to the date of funding significantly declined (to 393 days from 522 days, p < 0.001). Exploratory analyses excluding provinces with incomplete data did not change the results. CONCLUSIONS: After the implementation of the pcodr, greater concordance in cancer drug funding decisions between provinces and decreased time to funding decisions were observed.

Survival Analysis in the Presence of Competing Risks: The Example of Waitlisted Kidney Transplant Candidates.

Competing events (or risks) preclude the observation of an event of interest or alter the probability of the event's occurrence and are commonly encountered in transplant outcomes research. Transplantation, for example, is a competing event for death on the waiting list because receiving a transplant may significantly decrease the risk of long-term mortality. In a typical analysis of time-to-event data, competing events may be censored or incorporated into composite end points; however, the presence of competing events violates the assumption of "independent censoring," which is the basis of standard survival analysis techniques. The use of composite end points disregards the possibility that competing events may be related to the exposure in a way that is different from the other components of the composite. Using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, this paper reviews the principles of competing risks analysis; outlines approaches for analyzing data with competing events (cause-specific and subdistribution hazards models); compares the estimates obtained from standard survival analysis, which handle competing events as censoring events; discusses the appropriate settings in which each of the two approaches could be used; and contrasts their interpretation.

HLA-DR and -DQ eplet mismatches and transplant glomerulopathy: a nested case-control study.

We conducted a nested case-control study from a cohort of adult kidney transplant recipients to assess the risk of transplant glomerulopathy (TG) as a function of donor and recipient HLA-DR and -DQ incompatibility at the eplet level. Cases (n = 52) were defined as patients diagnosed with transplant glomerulopathy based on biopsies showing glomerular basement membrane duplication without immune complex deposition. Controls (n = 104) with a similar follow-up from transplantation were randomly selected from the remaining cohort. HLAMatchmaker was used to ascertain the number of DRB1/3/4/5, DQA1 and DQB1 related eplet mismatches (eplet load). Multivariable conditional logistic regression models demonstrated an increase in the odds of TG (odds ratios [OR] of 2.84 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 7.84] and 4.62 [95% CI: 1.51, 14.14]) in the presence of 27-43 and >43 HLA-DR + DQ related eplet mismatches versus <27 eplet mismatches, respectively. When the eplet load was modeled as a continuous variable, the OR for TG was 1.25 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.50) for every 10 additional HLA-DR + DQ eplet mismatches. Our study suggests that minimization of HLA-DR + DQ eplet mismatches may decrease the incidence of transplant glomerulopathy diagnosed by indication biopsies. The role of eplet immunogenicity/antigenicity as determinants of allograft outcomes requires further study.

Vascular and upper gastrointestinal effects of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: meta-analyses of individual participant data from randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: The vascular and gastrointestinal effects of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), including selective COX-2 inhibitors (coxibs) and traditional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (tNSAIDs), are not well characterised, particularly in patients at increased risk of vascular disease. We aimed to provide such information through meta-analyses of randomised trials. METHODS: We undertook meta-analyses of 280 trials of NSAIDs versus placebo (124,513 participants, 68,342 person-years) and 474 trials of one NSAID versus another NSAID (229,296 participants, 165,456 person-years). The main outcomes were major vascular events (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or vascular death); major coronary events (non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death); stroke; mortality; heart failure; and upper gastrointestinal complications (perforation, obstruction, or bleed). FINDINGS: Major vascular events were increased by about a third by a coxib (rate ratio [RR] 1·37, 95% CI 1·14-1·66; p=0·0009) or diclofenac (1·41, 1·12-1·78; p=0·0036), chiefly due to an increase in major coronary events (coxibs 1·76, 1·31-2·37; p=0·0001; diclofenac 1·70, 1·19-2·41; p=0·0032). Ibuprofen also significantly increased major coronary events (2·22, 1·10-4·48; p=0·0253), but not major vascular events (1·44, 0·89-2·33). Compared with placebo, of 1000 patients allocated to a coxib or diclofenac for a year, three more had major vascular events, one of which was fatal. Naproxen did not significantly increase major vascular events (0·93, 0·69-1·27). Vascular death was increased significantly by coxibs (1·58, 99% CI 1·00-2·49; p=0·0103) and diclofenac (1·65, 0·95-2·85, p=0·0187), non-significantly by ibuprofen (1·90, 0·56-6·41; p=0·17), but not by naproxen (1·08, 0·48-2·47, p=0·80). The proportional effects on major vascular events were independent of baseline characteristics, including vascular risk. Heart failure risk was roughly doubled by all NSAIDs. All NSAID regimens increased upper gastrointestinal complications (coxibs 1·81, 1·17-2·81, p=0·0070; diclofenac 1·89, 1·16-3·09, p=0·0106; ibuprofen 3·97, 2·22-7·10, p<0·0001; and naproxen 4·22, 2·71-6·56, p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: The vascular risks of high-dose diclofenac, and possibly ibuprofen, are comparable to coxibs, whereas high-dose naproxen is associated with less vascular risk than other NSAIDs. Although NSAIDs increase vascular and gastrointestinal risks, the size of these risks can be predicted, which could help guide clinical decision making. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation.

Partnering with survivors & families to determine research priorities for adult out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: A James Lind Alliance Priority Setting Partnership.

BACKGROUND: Research priority setting in health care has historically been done by expert health care providers and researchers and has not involved patients, family or the public. Survivors & family members have been particularly absent from this process in the field of resuscitation research and specifically adult out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). As such, we sought to conduct a priority setting exercise in partnership with survivors, lay responders and their families in order to ensure that their priorities were visible. We partnered with the James Lind Alliance (UK) and used their commonly used consensus methodology for Public Priority Setting Partnerships (PSPs) to identify research priorities that reflected the perspectives of all stakeholders. METHODS: We used two rounds of public and health care professional surveys to create the initial priority lists. The initial survey collected open-ended questions while the second round consolidated the list of initial questions into a refined list for prioritization. This was done by reviewing existing evidence and thematic categorization by the multi-disciplinary steering committee. An in-person consensus workshop was conducted to come to consensus on the top ten priorities from all perspectives. The McMaster PPEET tool was used to measure engagement. RESULTS: The initial survey yielded more than 425 responses and 1450 "questions" from survivors and family members (18%), lay responders, health care providers and others. The second survey asked participants to rank a short list of 125 questions. The final top 25 questions were brought to the in-person meeting, and a top ten were selected through the JLA consensus process. The final list of top ten questions included how to improve the rate of lay responder CPR, what interventions used at the scene of an arrest can improve resuscitation and survival, how survival can be improved in rural areas of Canada, what resuscitation medications are most effective, what care patient's family members need, what post-discharge support is needed for survivors, how communication should work for everyone involved with a cardiac arrest, what factors best predict neurologically intact survival, whether biomarkers/genetic tests are effective in predicting OHCA and more research on the short and long-term psycho-social impacts of OHCA on survivors. The PPEET showed overwhelmingly positive results for the patient and family engagement experience during the final workshop. CONCLUSIONS: This inclusive research priority setting provides essential information for those doing resuscitation research internationally. The results provide a guide for priority areas of research and should drive our community to focus on questions that matter to survivors and their families in our work. In particular the Canadian Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium will be incorporating the top ten list into its strategic plan for the future.

Effects of cyclosporine immunosuppression in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus of recent onset.

Type I diabetes may be an autoimmune disorder, although the evidence is largely circumstantial. The natural history of the disease after diagnosis includes partial remission in most patients, but only about 3 percent achieve transient insulin independence. beta Cell function, as indicated by the plasma concentration of C-peptide, is lost over 6 to 30 months and islet cell antibodies disappeared over 1 to 2 years. This article describes a pilot study in which 41 patients were treated with the immunosuppressive agent cyclosporine for 2 to 12 months. Of 30 patients treated within 6 weeks of diagnosis, 16 became insulin independent with concentrations of plasma C-peptide in the normal range and decreasing titers of islet cell antibodies. Of 11 patients who entered the study 8 to 44 weeks after diagnosis, two achieved this state. These results indicate that a controlled trial of the effects of cyclosporine in type I diabetes should be conducted.

Anti-fibrinolytic use for minimising perioperative allogeneic blood transfusion.

BACKGROUND: Concerns regarding the safety of transfused blood have led to the development of a range of interventions to minimise blood loss during major surgery. Anti-fibrinolytic drugs are widely used, particularly in cardiac surgery and previous reviews have found them to be effective in reducing blood loss and the need for transfusion. Recently, questions have been raised regarding the comparative performance of the drugs and the safety of the most popular agent, aprotinin. OBJECTIVES: To assess the comparative effects of the anti-fibrinolytic drugs aprotinin, tranexamic acid (TXA), and epsilon aminocaproic acid (EACA) on blood loss during surgery, the need for red blood (RBC) transfusion, and adverse events, particularly vascular occlusion, renal dysfunction, and death. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the internet. References in identified trials and review articles were checked and trial authors were contacted to identify any additional studies. The searches were last updated in July 2006. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of anti-fibrinolytic drugs in adults scheduled for non-urgent surgery. Eligible trials compared anti-fibrinolytic drugs with placebo (or no treatment), or with each other. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. MAIN RESULTS: This review summarises data from 211 RCTs that recruited 20,781 participants. Data from placebo/inactive controlled trials, and from head-to-head trials suggest an advantage of aprotinin over the lysine analogues TXA and EACA in terms of operative blood loss, but the differences were small. Aprotinin reduced the probability of requiring RBC transfusion by a relative 34% (relative risk [RR] 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61 to 0.71). The RR for RBC transfusion with TXA was 0.61 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.69) and it was 0.75 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.96) with EACA. When the pooled estimates from the head-to-head trials of the two lysine analogues were combined and compared to aprotinin alone, aprotinin appeared superior in reducing the need for RBC transfusion: RR 0.83 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.99). Aprotinin reduced the need for re-operation due to bleeding: RR 0.48 (95% CI 0.35 to 0.68). This translates into an absolute risk reduction of just under 3% and a number needed-to-treat (NNT) of 37 (95% CI 27 to 56). Similar trends were seen with TXA and EACA, but the data were sparse and the differences failed to reach statistical significance. The blood transfusion data were heterogeneous and funnel plots indicate that trials of aprotinin and the lysine analogues may be subject to publication bias. Evidence of publication bias was not observed in trials reporting re-operation rates. Adjustment for these effects reduced the magnitude of estimated benefits but did not negate treatment effects. However, the apparent advantage of aprotinin over the lysine analogues was small and may be explained by publication bias and non-equivalent drug doses. Aprotinin did not increase the risk of myocardial infarction (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.18), stroke (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.35 to 1.64) renal dysfunction (RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.70) or overall mortality (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.20). The analyses of myocardial infarction and death included data from the majority of subjects recruited into the clinical trials of aprotinin. However, under-reporting of renal events could explain the lack of effect seen with aprotinin. Similar trends were seen with the lysine analogues but data were sparse. These results conflict with the results of recently published non-randomised studies. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Anti-fibrinolytic drugs provide worthwhile reductions in blood loss and the need for allogeneic red cell transfusion. Based on the results of randomised trials their efficacy does not appear to be offset by serious adverse effects. In most circumstances the lysine analogues are probably as effective as aprotinin and are cheaper; the evidence is stronger for tranexamic acid than for aminocaproic acid. In high risk cardiac surgery, where there is a substantial probability of serious blood loss, aprotinin may be preferred over tranexamic acid. Aprotinin does not appear to be associated with an increased risk of vascular occlusion and death, but the data do not exclude an increased risk of renal failure. There is no need for further placebo-controlled trials of aprotinin or lysine analogues in cardiac surgery. The principal need is for large comparative trials to assess the relative efficacy, safety and cost-effectiveness of anti-fibrinolytic drugs in different surgical procedures.

A decision aid for autologous pre-donation in cardiac surgery--a randomized trial.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this randomized, controlled study was to determine the usefulness of a decision aid on pre-donation of autologous blood before elective open heart surgery. METHODS: The decision aid (DA) group received a tape and booklet which described the options for peri-operative transfusion in detail. The no decision aid (NDA) group received information usually given to patients about autologous donation. RESULTS: A total of 120 patients were randomized. The DA group rated themselves better prepared for decision making and showed significant improvements in knowledge (p = 0.001) and realistic risk perceptions (p = 0.001). In both groups there was an increase in the proportion of patients choosing allogeneic blood between baseline and follow-up (p = 0.001). Patients in the DA group were significantly more satisfied with the amount of information they received, how they were treated and with the decision they made, than patients in the NDA group. CONCLUSION: The decision aid is useful in preparing patients for decision making. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: The next stage is to explore strategies to make it available to all appropriate patients.

The practice guidelines development cycle: a conceptual tool for practice guidelines development and implementation.

PURPOSE: To develop a conceptual tool for the systematic development of cancer treatment practice guidelines. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The guidelines development tool, the Practice Guidelines Development Cycle, was derived from observing an evidence-based practice guidelines initiative at a comprehensive cancer center in Ontario, Canada, and from a literature review that uncovered barriers to guidelines development and implementation. Based on the literature findings and direct observations of how clinicians struggled with evidence-based guidelines development, we evolved a framework to incorporate clinical and administrative factors (eg, costs) into evidence-based guidelines. Use of the Practice Guidelines Development Cycle is illustrated with a clinical example (the use of adjuvant systemic therapy in good-risk, node-negative premenopausal breast cancer patients). RESULTS: The result is the Practice Guidelines Development Cycle, which consists of eight sequential steps, from topic selection to policy formulation. Independent validation of guidelines is included. The cycle products are the evidence-based recommendation, the practice guideline, and the practice policy. The main features of the cycle are emphasis on scientific evidence, acknowledgment of the roles of clinical experience and nonclinical (administrative) factors through consensus, and explicit separation of clinical and cost considerations in guidelines development. Twenty guidelines are currently in development. CONCLUSION: Attention to the barriers of guidelines development and the sociocultural nature of clinical practice, and respect for clinical experience, can lead to improved strategies for guidelines development.

Canadian Atrial Fibrillation Anticoagulation (CAFA) Study.

The Canadian Atrial Fibrillation Anticoagulation Study was a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial to assess the potential of warfarin to reduce systemic thromboembolism and its inherent risk of hemorrhage. As a result of the publication of two other "positive" studies of similar design and objective, this study was stopped early before completion of its planned recruitment of 630 patients. There were 187 patients randomized to warfarin and 191 to placebo. Permanent discontinuation of study medication occurred in 26% of warfarin-treated and 23% of placebo-treated patients. The target range of the international normalized ratio was 2 to 3. For the warfarin-treated patients, the international normalized ratio was in the target range 43.7% of the study days, above it 16.6% of the study days and below it 39.6% of the study days. Fatal or major bleeding occurred at annual rates of 2.5% in warfarin-treated and 0.5% in placebo-treated patients. Minor bleeding occurred in 16% of patients receiving warfarin and 9% receiving placebo. The primary outcome event cluster was nonlacunar stroke, noncentral nervous systemic embolism and fatal or intracranial hemorrhage. Events were included in the primary analysis of efficacy if they occurred within 28 days of permanent discontinuation of the study medication. The annual rates of the primary outcome event cluster were 3.5% in warfarin-treated and 5.2% in placebo-treated patients, with a relative risk reduction of 37% (95% confidence limits, -63.5%, 75.5%, p = 0.17).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Preoperative autologous donation decreases allogeneic transfusion but increases exposure to all red blood cell transfusion: results of a meta-analysis. International Study of Perioperative Transfusion (ISPOT) Investigators.

BACKGROUND: Concern about risks associated with allogeneic red blood cell transfusion has led to interest in methods of decreasing patient exposure to perioperative transfusion. OBJECTIVE: To perform a meta-analysis to determine the degree to which predonation of autologous blood reduces patients' exposure to allogeneic blood and all transfusions of red blood cells (allogeneic or autologous). METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, bibliographies, annual reports, press releases, newsletters from organizations with interests in the blood system, and personal files for randomized studies and concurrent control cohort studies in which the control groups were patients excluded for nonmedical reasons. RESULTS: Patients who predonated autologous blood were less likely to receive allogeneic blood in the 6 randomized studies (n = 933) (odds ratio [OR], 0.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.08-0.32) and in the 9 cohort studies (n = 2351) (OR, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.14-0.26). However, autologous donors were more likely to undergo transfusion with allogeneic and/or autologous blood (for randomized studies: OR, 3.03; 95% CI, 1.70-5.39 and for cohort studies: OR, 12.32; 95% CI, 5.90-25.40). Studies that reported use of transfusion protocols found less benefit with preoperative autologous donation, although the difference was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative autologous donation of blood decreases exposure to allogeneic blood but increases exposure to any transfusion (allogeneic and/or autologous). There is a direct relationship between the transfusion rate in the control group and the benefit derived from preoperative autologous donation. This suggests that other methods of decreasing blood transfusion, such as surgical technique and transfusion protocols, may be as important as preoperative autologous donation of blood.

Choosing antithrombotic therapy for elderly patients with atrial fibrillation who are at risk for falls.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the risk of falling (with a possible increased chance of subdural hematoma) should influence the choice of antithrombotic therapy in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation. DESIGN: A Markov decision analytic model was used to determine the preferred treatment strategy (no antithrombotic therapy, long-term aspirin use, or long-term warfarin use) for patients with atrial fibrillation who are 65 years of age and older, are at risk for falling, and have no other contraindications to antithrombotic therapy. Input data were obtained by systematic review of MEDLINE. Outcomes were expressed as quality-adjusted life-years. RESULTS: For patients with average risks of stroke and falling, warfarin therapy was associated with 12.90 quality-adjusted life-years per patient; aspirin therapy, 11.17 quality-adjusted life-years; and no antithrombotic therapy, 10.15 quality-adjusted life-years. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that, regardless of the patients' age or baseline risk of stroke, the risk of falling was not an important factor in determining their optimal antithrombotic therapy. CONCLUSIONS: For elderly patients with atrial fibrillation, the choice of optimal therapy to prevent stroke depends on many clinical factors, especially their baseline risk of stroke. However, patients' propensity to fall is not an important factor in this decision.

Use of statins and the subsequent development of deep vein thrombosis.

BACKGROUND: Some of the benefit of statins for the prevention of cardiovascular disease may be due to their antithrombotic properties. Little is known about the effect of these drugs on the development of deep vein thrombosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study over an 8-year period by linking Ontario provincial health care administrative databases covering more than 1.4 million Ontario residents aged 65 years or older. We excluded those with a documented history of atherosclerosis, venous thromboembolism, or cancer within 36 months prior to study enrollment, as well as those prescribed warfarin sodium within 12 months before enrollment. In the primary cohort, we evaluated the subsequent risk of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) among men and women prescribed thyroid replacement therapy, nonstatin lipid-lowering agents, or statins. A second cohort of women only was evaluated in a similar fashion, but estrogen use was added as a third comparison drug group. RESULTS: There were 125 862 men and women in the primary cohort. After adjusting for age; sex; prior hospitalization; newly diagnosed cancer; or prescribed aspirin, warfarin, or estrogen, statin users (n = 77 993) had an associated decreased risk of DVT relative to those prescribed thyroid replacement therapy (n = 35 978) (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.87). Compared with thyroid replacement therapy, users of nonstatin lipid-lowering agents (n = 11 891) did not seem to be at lower risk for deep vein thrombosis (HR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.79-1.18). In the secondary cohort of 89 508 women, after adjusting for age, prior hospitalization, newly diagnosed cancer, or prescribed aspirin or warfarin, estrogen users (n = 29 165) had an associated increased risk for DVT compared with those receiving thyroid replacement therapy (n = 22 118) (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.33), while statin users had an associated decreased risk (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.59-0.79). Nonstatin lipid-lowering agents (n = 5155) were not associated with a reduced risk of DVT compared with thyroid replacement therapy (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.63-1.12). CONCLUSION: Among selected individuals aged 65 years or older, statins were associated with a 22% relative risk reduction in the risk of DVT. A randomized clinical trial is needed to evaluate the efficacy of statins for the primary and secondary prevention of DVT.

Prevalence, age distribution, and gender of patients with atrial fibrillation. Analysis and implications.

The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is related to age. Anticoagulation is highly effective in preventing stroke in patients with AF, but the risk of hemorrhage may be increased in older patients. We reviewed the available epidemiologic data to define the age and sex distribution of people with AF. From four large recent population-based surveys, we estimated the overall age- and gender-specific prevalence of AF. These estimates were applied to the recent US census data to calculate the number of men and women with AF in each age group. There are an estimated 2.2 million people in the United States with AF, with a median age of about 75 years. The prevalence of AF is 2.3% in people older than 40 years and 5.9% in those older than 65 years. Approximately 70% of individuals with AF are between 65 and 85 years of age. The absolute number of men and women with AF is about equal. After age 75 years, about 60% of the people with AF are women. In contrast to people with AF in the general population, patients with AF in recent anticoagulation trials had a mean age of 69 years, and only 20% were older than 75 years. The risks and benefits of antithrombotic therapy in older individuals are important considerations in stroke prevention in AF.

Warfarin for atrial fibrillation. The patient's perspective.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) of warfarin therapy for the treatment of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation from the perspective of patients using 2 different elicitation methods. DESIGN: All patients completed 2 face-to-face interviews, which were 2 weeks apart. For each interview, they were randomized to receive 1 of 2 elicitation methods: ping-ponging or starting at the known efficacy. SETTING: The practices of 2 university-affiliated family medicine centers (8 physicians each), 14 community-based family physicians, and 2 cardiologists. PATIENTS: Sixty-four patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation who were initiated with warfarin therapy at least 3 months before the study. INTERVENTION: During each interview, the patients' MCIDs were determined by using (1) a pictorial flip chart to describe atrial fibrillation; the consequences of a minor stroke, a major stroke, and a major bleeding episode; the chance of stroke if not taking warfarin; the chance of a major bleeding episode if taking warfarin; examples of the inconvenience, minor side effects, and costs of warfarin therapy; and then (2) 1 of the 2 elicitation methods to determine their MCIDs (the smallest reduction in stroke risk at which the patients were willing to take warfarin). Patients' knowledge of their stroke risk, acceptability of the interview process, and factors determining their preferences were also assessed. MAIN RESULTS: Given a baseline risk of having a stroke in the next 2 years, if not taking warfarin, of 10 of 100, the mean MCID was 2.01 of 100 (95% confidence interval, 1.60-2.42). Fifty-two percent of the patients would take warfarin for an absolute decrease in stroke risk of 1% over 2 years. Before eliciting their MCIDs, patients showed poor knowledge of their stroke risk, which improved afterward. The interview process was well accepted by the patients. The MCID using the ping-ponging elicitation method was 1.015 of 100 smaller compared with use of the starting at the known efficacy method (P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: We were able to determine the MCID of warfarin therapy for the prevention of stroke from the perspective of patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Their MCIDs were much smaller than those that have been implied by some experts and clinicians. The interview process, using the flip chart approach, appeared to improve the patients' knowledge of their disease and its consequences and treatment. The method used to elicit the patients' MCIDs can have a clinically important effect on patient responses. The method used in our study can be generalized to other conditions and, thus, could be helpful in 3 ways: (1) from a clinical decision-making perspective, it could facilitate patient-physician communication; (2) it could clarify the patient perspective when interpreting the results of previously completed trials; and (3) it could be used to derive more clinically relevant sample sizes for randomized treatment trials.

Effectiveness of perioperative epoetin alfa in patients scheduled for elective hip surgery.

Several strategies have been investigated as a means of reducing allogeneic blood requirements in patients undergoing surgery, including the perioperative administration of epoetin alfa. In a multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in 208 patients undergoing elective hip replacement surgery, subcutaneous administration of epoetin alfa (300 IU/kg daily) for 14 or 9 days perioperatively (commencing 10 and 5 days preoperatively, respectively) significantly reduced the incidence of primary outcome events (any allogeneic blood transfusion or a postoperative hemoglobin [Hb] level < 8.0 g/dL) compared with placebo (P = .003). Furthermore, the transfusion requirements of epoetin alfa-treated patients were significantly lower than those of patients treated with placebo (P = .007). Preoperative and postoperative Hb levels and reticulocyte counts were higher in epoetin alfa-treated patients compared with placebo. Epoetin alfa was well tolerated, and the incidence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) was not different from that observed in placebo recipients. Thus, perioperative administration of epoetin alfa reduces the allogeneic blood requirements of patients undergoing elective hip replacement surgery and is of particular benefit in the subgroup of patients whose baseline Hb levels are less than 13.5 g/dL.

Decision aids for patients considering options affecting cancer outcomes: evidence of efficacy and policy implications.

Some cancer screening and treatment decisions are not clear cut because outcomes are uncertain or options have different benefit/risk profiles. "Decision aids" have been developed as adjuncts to counseling so that patients can learn about benefits and risks, can consider their personal values, and can participate with their practitioner in decision making. The purpose of this paper is to review published evidence about the efficacy of decision aids focused on cancer outcomes and to outline research and dissemination issues. Studies evaluating cancer-related decision aids demonstrate that they are acceptable to patients and help those who are uncertain at baseline to make choices. They also increase the likelihood that choices are based on better knowledge, realistic expectations of outcomes, and personal values. Decision aids reduce some dimensions of decisional conflict, and their effect on decisions is variable. Few studies examine the downstream effects of decision aids on long-term persistence with choices, regret, and quality of life. The differences between simpler and more intensive methods of decision support appear to be negligible in terms of knowledge and satisfaction as well as variable in terms of decisions and decisional conflict. However, more intensive methods are superior in terms of user acceptability and of the extent to which choices are based on realistic expectations and personal values. The clinical importance of these differences and the cost-effectiveness remain to be established. On the basis of this review, several recommendations for research are made, and dissemination issues are identified.

Renal allograft survival in the baboon using a pretreatment protocol with cyclosporine.

Cyclosporine extends kidney allograft survival in the chacma baboon, and this study explores various administration protocols to generate optimal serum concentrations of the drug, assessed by radioimmunoassay and by inhibition of lymphocyte transformation by phytohemagglutinin and allogeneic lymphocytes in culture. Serum levels commensurate with concentrations that have been shown to be immunosuppressive in humans (150-400 ng/ml) are reached after 14 days of pretreatment with 10 mg cyclosporine/kg, and after 7 days with 20 and 30 mg cyclosporine/kg. The 10-mg dose prolongs median graft survival from 11 to 21 days, which is the same as that obtained with 20 mg/kg administered after transplantation. Further increases in the pretreatment dose to 20 or 30 mg/kg result in survivals of 27 and 31 days, respectively. All the animals died from rejection during therapy and the T-cell-binding avidity, and absorptive or degradative processes may necessitate doses far in excess of those currently used in transplantation.

Surveying physicians to determine the minimal important difference: implications for sample-size calculation.

The minimal important difference (MID) is the smallest benefit of treatment that would result in clinicians recommending it to their patients. The MID is necessary to calculate sample size for randomized clinical trials, but its chosen value is often arbitrary. This study set out to determine the practicability of surveying physicians to elicit the MID for clinical trial sample-size calculation. Using a mail survey, we elicited the MID of different physician specialties (family medicine, internal medicine, vascular surgery) for using propranolol to slow abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) growth assuming that propranolol was efficacious in this condition. We used different outcome measures (growth rate or proportion of patients requiring surgery) and different methods of data presentation for the proportion of patients requiring surgery (absolute risk reduction or number needed to treat). The MID varied significantly by physician specialty, experience with AAA and propranolol, and the method used to elicit the MID. Consequently, sample-size calculations using these various MIDs varied from 116 to 3015. Future attempts to elicit the MID need to consider carefully who is surveyed, how data are presented, and how opinions are elicited.