Improved volume variable cluster model method for crystal-lattice optimization: effect on isotope fractionation factor.

The isotopic fractionation factor and element partition coefficient can be calculated only after the geometric optimization of the molecular clusters is completed. Optimization directly affects the accuracy of some parameters, such as the average bond length, molecular volume, harmonic vibrational frequency, and other thermodynamic parameters. Here, we used the improved volume variable cluster model (VVCM) method to optimize the molecular clusters of a typical oxide, quartz. We documented the average bond length and relative volume change. Finally, we extracted the harmonic vibrational frequencies and calculated the equilibrium fractionation factor of the silicon and oxygen isotopes. Given its performance in geometrical optimization and isotope fractionation factor calculation, we further applied the improved VVCM method to calculate isotope equilibrium fractionation factors of Cd and Zn between the hydroxide (Zn-Al layered double hydroxide), carbonate (cadmium-containing calcite) and their aqueous solutions under superficial conditions. We summarized a detailed procedure and used it to re-evaluate published theoretical results for cadmium-containing hydroxyapatite, emphasizing the relative volume change for all clusters and confirming the optimal point charge arrangement (PCA). The results showed that the average bond length and isotope fractionation factor are consistent with those published in previous studies, and the relative volume changes are considerably lower than the results calculated using the periodic boundary method. Specifically, the average Si-O bond length of quartz was 1.63 Å, and the relative volume change of quartz centered on silicon atoms was  - 0.39%. The average Zn-O bond length in the Zn-Al-layered double hydroxide was 2.10 Å, with a relative volume change of 1.96%. Cadmium-containing calcite had an average Cd-O bond length of 2.28 Å, with a relative volume change of 0.45%. At 298 K, the equilibrium fractionation factors between quartz, Zn-Al-layered double hydroxide, cadmium-containing calcite, and their corresponding aqueous solutions were [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] respectively. These results strongly support the reliability of the improved VVCM method for geometric optimization of molecular clusters.

Socioeconomic and lifestyle determinants of the prevalence of hypertension among elderly individuals in rural southwest China: a structural equation modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: This study examines the association between socioeconomic and lifestyle factors and the prevalence of hypertension among elderly individuals in rural Southwest China. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 4833 consenting adults aged ≥ 60 years in rural regions of Yunnan Province, China, was conducted in 2017. Data on individual socioeconomic status, sleep quality, physical activity level, and family history of hypertension were collected with a standardized questionnaire. Blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, height, weight, and waist circumference were also measured. An individual socioeconomic position (SEP) index was constructed using principal component analysis. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was applied to analyse the association between socioeconomic and lifestyle factors and the prevalence of hypertension. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of hypertension was 50.6% in the study population. Body fat distribution, including measures of obesity and central obesity, had the greatest total effect on hypertension (0.21), followed by family history of hypertension (0.14), biological sex (0.08), sleep quality (- 0.07), SEP (- 0.06), physical inactivity (0.06), and diabetes (0.06). Body fat distribution, SEP, and family history of hypertension had both direct and indirect effects on hypertension, whereas physical inactivity, diabetes, and sleep quality were directly associated with the prevalence of hypertension. Biological sex was indirectly associated with the prevalence of hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: SEP, body fat distribution, physical inactivity, diabetes, and sleep quality critically influence the prevalence of hypertension. Future interventions to prevent and control hypertension should give increased attention to individuals with low SEP and should focus on controlling diabetes and obesity, increasing physical activity levels, and improving quality of sleep among older adults aged ≥ 60 years in rural Southwest China.

Trends in prevalence and clustering of modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors across socioeconomic spectra in rural southwest China: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine the changing prevalence of clustering of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors across socioeconomic spectra in rural southwest China. DESIGN: Data were collected from two waves of cross-sectional health interviews and examinations among individuals aged ≥35 years in rural China. Anthropometric measurements, blood pressure and fasting blood sugar levels were recorded for each participant. SETTING: This study was conducted in rural Yunnan Province of China. PARTICIPANTS: 8187 individuals in 2011 and 7572 in 2021 consented to participate in this study. RESULTS: From 2011 to 2021, prevalence increased of hypertension (26.1% vs 41.6%), diabetes mellitus (5.9% vs 9.8%), obesity (5.9% vs 12.0%) and central obesity (50.0% vs 58.3%) (p<0.01), while prevalence decreased of current smoking (35.2% vs 29.6%), secondhand smoke exposure (42.6% vs 27.4%) and current drinking (26.6% vs 29.6%) (p<0.01). This decade also saw an increase in the prevalence of participants with clustering of ≥2 (61.8% vs 63.0%) and ≥3 CVD risk factors (28.4% vs 32.2%) (p<0.05). These increasing rates were also observed among subgroups categorised by sex, ethnicity, education level, income level and those ≥45 years of age (p<0.05). In both 2011 and 2021, male participants and participants with a lower education level had higher prevalence of clustering of ≥2 and ≥3 CVD risk factors than their counterparts (p<0.01). Ethnic minority participants and participants with higher annual income had higher prevalence of clustering of CVD risk factors in 2011 but presented opposite associations in 2021 (p<0.01). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of clustering of CVD risk factors increased substantially across all socioeconomic spectra in rural southwest China from 2011 to 2021. Future efforts to implement comprehensive lifestyle interventions to promote the prevention and control of CVD should in particular focus on men, those of Han ethnicity and those with low socioeconomic status.

Time-trend analysis of tuberculosis diagnosis in Shenzhen, China between 2011 and 2020.

Objective: To describe the trend of tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis in the migrant city Shenzhen, China, and analyze the risk factors of diagnosis delays. Methods: Demographic and clinical information of TB patients from 2011 to 2020 in Shenzhen were extracted. A bundle of measures to enhance TB diagnosis had been implemented since late 2017. We calculated the proportions of patients who underwent a patient delay (>30 days from syndrome onset to first care-seeking) or a hospital delay (>4 days from first care-seeking to TB diagnosis). Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of diagnosis delays. Results: During the study period, 43,846 patients with active pulmonary TB were diagnosed and registered in Shenzhen. On average, the bacteriological positivity rate of the patients was 54.9%, and this increased from 38.6% in 2017 to 74.2% in 2020. Overall, 30.3 and 31.1% of patients had a patient delay or a hospital delay, respectively. Molecular testing significantly increased bacteriological positivity and decreased the risk of hospital delay. People >35 years old, the unemployed, and residents had a higher risk of delays in both patient care-seeking and hospital diagnosis than younger people, workers, or migrants. Compared with passive case-finding, active case-finding significantly decreased the risk of patient delay by 5.47 (4.85-6.19) times. Conclusion: The bacteriological positivity rate of TB patients in Shenzhen increased significantly but the diagnosis delays were still serious, which may need more attention when active case-finding in risk populations and optimization of molecular testing.

The economic burden of hypertension in rural south-west China.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic burden of hypertension in a given year in rural Yunnan Province of China, including direct, indirect and intangible costs. METHODS: A prevalence-based cost-of-illness method was used to estimate the economic burden of hypertension. Data on participants' demographic characteristics, inpatient hospitalisation expenditures, outpatient visit expenditures, self-medication costs and indirect costs related to hypertension were collected from a cross-sectional health examination and questionnaire survey, involving 9396 consenting individuals aged ≥ 18 years and 3500 households. Blood pressure (BP) levels were determined from the average of three BP measurements. Years of life lost (YLL) because of hypertension was estimated using medical death certificates. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of and YLL/1000 population because of hypertension was 24.8% and 1.5 years for the survey population, respectively. Mean unit direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, morbidity costs, mortality costs, intangible costs and cost of illness were estimated to be $ 467.2, $ 20.1, $ 23.5, $ 8265.1, $ 417.4 and $ 9393.3, respectively. The total cost of hypertension was estimated to be $ 231.7 million. Direct costs represented the largest component of economic cost of hypertension. On average, males had higher overall direct, indirect and intangible costs of hypertension than females. Both indirect and intangible costs decreased with age, whereas direct costs increased with age. The incidence of household catastrophic health payment and household impoverishment because of hypertension was 8.9% and 4.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension inflicts a considerable economic burden upon individual households and society as a whole in Yunnan Province, China.

Control of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in urban populations: findings from a cross-sectional prevalence survey in Shenzhen, China.

The prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) among urban populations is generally lower than rural residents, but the disease burden is still high. We conducted a cross-sectional prevalence survey of COPD among residents aged ≥40 years in an emerging city Shenzhen, China from September 2018 to June 2019. Through multi-stage stratified random sampling, a total of 4157 eligible participants were invited to complete a questionnaire and to take the spirometry test; 3591 with available data were enrolled in the final analysis. Individuals were diagnosed with COPD if the post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC ratio was less than 0.7. The estimated standardized prevalence of COPD among residents over 40 years old in Shenzhen was 5.92% (95% confidential intervals [CI] 4.05-8.34). Risk factors for COPD included elder age (adjusted odds ratio 1.206, 95% CI 1.120-1.299 per 10-year increase), smoking over 20 pack-years (1.968, 1.367-2.832), history of chronic bronchitis (1.733, 1.036-2.900) or asthma (4.920, 2.425-9.982), and exposure to higher annual minimum concentrations of ambient SO2 (1.156, 1.053-1.270 per 1-µg/m3 increase). Among 280 spirometry-diagnosed patients, most (221, 78.93%) patients were classified as mild COPD (GOLD stage I). This survey found that the prevalence of COPD in Shenzhen is low and most patients had mild symptoms, thus recommended screening using spirometry in primary health care to detect early-stage COPD. Increased risk from the exposure to air pollutants also indicated the urgent need for environmental improvement in city settings.

Socioeconomic differences in diabetes prevalence, awareness, and treatment in rural southwest China.

OBJECTIVE: To examine how socioeconomic differences are related to the prevalence, awareness and treatment of diabetes in rural Yunnan province, a relatively undeveloped province in southwest China. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted from 2008 to 2010; 10,007 consenting individuals aged ≥ 18 years were selected to participate in the study using a stratified, multistage sampling technique. Information about participants' demographic characteristics, smoking habits, drinking habits, awareness and treatment of diabetes, and family history of diabetes were obtained using a standard questionnaire. Height, weight, waist circumference, hip circumference, fasting blood sugar level and blood pressure were also measured for each individual. Data were analysed using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The age-standardised presence of diabetes was 6.8% in the study population. In diabetic subjects, 28.7% were aware that they had diabetes, and 22.6% had received treatment. After controlling for age, sex, smoking behaviour, drinking behaviour, hypertension, being overweight, central obesity and family history of diabetes, individual educational level was negatively associated with the prevalence of diabetes and positively associated with the awareness and treatment of diabetes. The awareness and treatment of diabetes showed a negative relationship with ethnic minority status and a positive relationship with individual household income. CONCLUSIONS: There are low levels of awareness and treatment among individuals living with diabetes in rural southwest China. Strategies that can enhance public awareness of diabetes and increase access to affordable medications are urgently needed, especially for poor, less educated individuals who belong to ethnic minorities.

Psychometric evaluation of the Chinese version of the Person-Centred Care Assessment Tool.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to test a Chinese cross-cultural adaptation of the English version of the Person-Centred Care Assessment Tool (P-CAT) and evaluate its psychometric properties. DESIGN: P-CAT was translated/back-translated using established procedures before the psychometric evaluation of the Chinese version was made. SETTING: Two hospitals covering urban and suburban areas of Kunming in the Yunnan province of China. PARTICIPANTS: 152 female hospital staff completed the survey. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Construct validity and reliability, including internal consistency and test-retest reliability, were assessed among a sample of hospital staff. RESULTS: The factor analysis resulted in a two-component solution that consisted of two subscales. The corrected item-total correlations for all of the items ranged from 0.14 to 0.44, with six items not meeting the cut-off level for item-total correlation (>0.3). The Chinese P-CAT demonstrated strong reliability, with a Cronbach's alpha of 0.91-0.94 for the scales and a test-retest reliability coefficient of 0.88 for the overall scale scores. The intraclass correlation was 0.92 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.95). CONCLUSION: P-CAT appears to be a promising measure for evaluating staff perceptions of person-centredness in Chinese hospital environments. The results show that P-CAT can be a useful tool for improving the quality of healthcare in terms of person-centred care in the Chinese context.

Contextual and individual demographic determinants of alcohol consumption and smoking: a comparative study in southwestern China and southern Thailand.

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between contextual and individual demographic characteristics and alcohol consumption and smoking in southwestern China and southern Thailand. In 2000, a cross-sectional study was carried out in southern Thailand on 703 subjects > or = 45 years old, and in 2005 in southwestern China on 6,006 subjects. Each participant was interviewed by trained interviewers using a standard questionnaire. Information regarding demographic characteristics, alcohol drinking and smoking was obtained. Multilevel logistic regression was used to model variation in the prevalence of alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking. The findings in both countries indicate that age was negatively associated with the probability of consuming alcohol and males were more likely to consume alcohol and tobacco than females. Chinese communities with a lower level of education were more likely to smoke. Thai individuals with a higher educational level were less likely to smoke. Yi ethnicity was associated with a higher probability of drinking both at the contextual level and at the individual level in China. Non-Muslims were more likely to consume alcohol in Thailand. Future contextual and individual level interventions regarding alcohol drinking and smoking are needed in China, and further studies with larger sample sizes are needed in Thailand before conclusions can be drawn.

Ethnic disparities in prevalence and patterns of smoking and nicotine dependence in rural southwest China: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: This study examines ethnic disparities in prevalence and patterns of smoking and nicotine dependence in rural southwest China. DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional design. SETTING: This study was conducted in rural Yunnan Province of China. PARTICIPANTS: 7027 consenting individuals aged ≥35 years among Han majority and four ethnic minority groups (Na Xi, Li Shu, Dai and Jing Po) participated in this study. Information about participants' demographic characteristics as well as smoking habits and an assessment of nicotine dependence with the Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND) was obtained using a standard questionnaire. RESULTS: Males had significantly higher prevalence of current smoking than females (64.8% and 44.4%, p<0.01). Among current smokers, the prevalence of nicotine dependence was significantly higher in males compared with females (19.9% and 7.1%, p<0.01). Jing Po men and women had the highest prevalence of current smokers (72.2% vs 23.1%, p<0.01), whereas the highest prevalence of nicotine dependence was found in male Dai current smokers and female Li Shu current smokers (44.8% vs 32.5%, p<0.01). Filtered cigarettes were the most popular form of tobacco used across all five ethnic groups. Over 75% of tobacco users initiated smoking and regularly smoked during adolescence, and those of minority ethnicity smoked regularly at a younger age than those of Han descent (p<0.05). Individuals in all five ethnic groups with higher levels of education had a lower probability of current smoking status (p<0.05), whereas a negative association of level of education with nicotine dependence was only observed in current smokers in the Han majority and Dai ethnic minority groups. Among Han majority current smokers, higher annual household income was associated with a higher risk of nicotine dependence (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Future interventions to control tobacco use should be tailored to address ethnicity and socioeconomic factors.

Association between physical exercise and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in people infected with hepatitis B virus / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To investigate the association between physical exercise and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in people infected with HBV. Methods: The information about the 3 813 participants infected with HBV, including the prevalence of NAFLD, prevalence of physical exercise and other covariates, were collected from the National Science and Technology Major Project of China during 2016-2020. The logistic regression model was used to evaluate the association between physical exercise and NAFLD in HBV infected patients, and subgroup analysis was performed to identify the effect modifiers. Results: A total of 2 259 HBV infected participants were included in the final analysis and 454 (20.10%) had NAFLD. After adjusting for covariates, we found that moderate physical exercise was a protective factor for NAFLD (OR=0.66, 95%CI: 0.46-0.94). Subgroup analysis suggested that the protective effect of moderate physical exercise on NAFLD might be stronger in women (OR=0.61, 95%CI: 0.36-1.01), those <45 years old (OR=0.24, 95%CI: 0.06-0.80), those who had low education level (OR=0.16, 95%CI: 0.04-0.49), those who had low annual income (OR=0.39, 95%CI: 0.16-0.89 for <30 000 yuan RMB; OR=0.64, 95%CI: 0.40-1.00 for 30 000-80 000 yuan RMB), those who had hypertension (OR=0.45, 95%CI: 0.21-0.88), those with BMI ≥24.0 kg/m2 (OR=0.66, 95%CI: 0.43-1.01), those who had more daily fruit or vegetable intake (OR=0.61, 95%CI: 0.38-0.97), those who had more daily meat intake (OR=0.49, 95%CI: 0.23-0.97), and those who had no smoking history (OR=0.66, 95%CI: 0.45-0.95) or passive smoking exposure (OR=0.61, 95%CI: 0.37-0.97). Conclusions: Among HBV infected patients, moderate physical exercise was negatively associated with the prevalence of NAFLD. Women, young people, those who had low education level, those who had low annual income, those with hypertension, those with high BMI, those who had more daily fruit or vegetable and meat intakes, and those who had no smoking history or passive smoking exposure might be more sensitive to the protective effect.

Steroids and dihydroisocoumarin glycosides from Xylaria sp. by the one strain many compounds strategy and their bioactivities / 中国天然药物

The fungus Xylaria sp. KYJ-15 was isolated from Illigera celebica. Based on the one strain many compounds (OSMAC) strategy, the strain was fermented on potato and rice solid media, respectively. As a result, two novel steroids, xylarsteroids A (1) and B (2), which are the first examples of C28-steroid with an unusual β- and γ-lactone ring, respectively, along with two new dihydroisocoumarin glycosides, xylarglycosides A (3) and B (4), were identified. Their structures were elucidated by spectroscopic methods, X-ray diffraction and electronic circular dichroism (ECD) experiments. All isolated compounds were evaluated for cytotoxicity, DPPH radical scavenging activity, acetylcholinesterase inhibitory and antimicrobial effect. Compound 1 exhibited potent AChE inhibitory activity with an IC50 value of 2.61 ± 0.05 μmol·L-1. The β-lactone ring unit of 1 is critical for its AChE inhibitory activity. The finding was further confirmed through exploring the interaction of 1 with AChE by molecular docking. In addition, both compounds 1 and 2 exhibited obvious antibacterial activity against Bacillus subtilis with a minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of 2 μg·mL-1. Compounds 3 and 4 exhibited antibacterial activities against Staphylococcus aureus with MICs of 4 and 2 μg·mL-1, respectively, which also exhibited DPPH radical scavenging activity comparable to the positive control with IC50 values of 9.2 ± 0.03 and 13.3 ± 0.01 μmol·L-1, respectively.

Development and application syndromic surveillance and early warning system in border area in Yunnan Province / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To establish a dynamic syndromic surveillance system in the border areas of Yunnan Province based on information technology, evaluate its effectiveness and timeliness in the response to common communicable disease epidemics and improve the communicable disease prevention and control in border areas. Methods: Three border counties were selected for full coverage as study areas, and dynamic surveillance for 14 symptoms and 6 syndromes were conducted in medical institutions, the daily collection of information about students' school absence in primary schools and febrile illness in inbound people at border ports were conducted in these counties from January 2016 to February 2018 to establish an early warning system based on mobile phone and computer platform for a field experimental study. Results: With syndromes of rash, influenza-like illness and the numbers of primary school absence, the most common communicable disease events, such as hand foot and mouth disease, influenza and chickenpox, can be identified 1-5 days in advance by using EARS-3C and Kulldorff time-space scanning models with high sensitivity and specificity. The system is easy to use with strong security and feasibility. All the information and the warning alerts are released in the form of interactive charts and visual maps, which can facilitate the timely response. Conclusions: This system is highly effective and easy to operate in the detection of possible outbreaks of common communicable diseases in border areas in real time, so the timely and effective intervention can be conducted to reduce the risk of local and cross-border communicable disease outbreaks. It has practical application value.

Contextual socioeconomic determinants of cardiovascular risk factors in rural south-west China: a multilevel analysis.

BACKGROUND: We examined independent influences of contextual variables on cardiovascular risk factors in Shilin county, Yunnan province, South-west China. METHODS: Three villages were selected from each of the ten townships based on probability proportional to size. In each selected village, 200 individuals aged > or = 45 years were chosen based on simple random sampling method. From 6006 individuals, information on demographic characteristics, smoking and drinking status was obtained by interview. Blood pressure, height, weight, and waist and hip girth were measured. Fasting blood sugar was measured in a 10-percent subsample. Contextual data were from official reports. Multi-level regression modelling with adjustment for individual and contextual variables was used. RESULTS: Contextual variables associated with CVD risk factors included: remoteness of village with higher blood pressure and fasting blood sugar, high proportion of Yi minority with drinking, high literacy rate with a lower rate of smoking and a lower mean waist-hip ratio, and high average income with lower systolic blood pressure and body mass index (BMI) but higher FBS. CONCLUSION: While contextual SES is associated with a few CVD risk factors, villages with high level of income are worse off in fasting blood sugar. Strategies of economic development should be reviewed to avoid adverse effects on health.

Socioeconomic disparities in type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence and self-management behaviors in rural southwest China.

BACKGROUND: This study examines how socioeconomic factors are associated with prevalence and self-management of diabetes among ethnic minority groups in the rural Yunnan province, which has the most ethnic minority groups per province in southwest China. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was carried out in 2014 in a rural southwest population consisting of 5532 consenting individuals aged ⩾35years. Information about participants' demographic characteristics, as well as diabetes diagnosis, treatment, and self-management behaviors, were obtained using a standard questionnaire. Fasting blood sugar levels were recorded for each individual. A socioeconomic position (SEP) index was constructed using principal component analysis. RESULTS: The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes in the study population was 4.8%. In persons with diabetes, 23.1% regularly self-monitored blood glucose, 43.2% adhered to taking prescribed anti-diabetic drugs or insulin injections, and 63.1% took at least one measure to control blood glucose. Individual educational level was found to be negatively associated with the prevalence of diabetes, whereas individuals with greater household assets and higher SEP were more likely to be suffered from diabetes. Persons with diabetes with greater household assets, higher level of education, and higher SEP had a greater probability of regularly self-monitoring blood glucose, compliance to prescribed medicines, and taking measures to control diabetes. Access to medical services was positively associated with regularly self-monitoring blood glucose and compliance to prescribed medicines. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic disparities in diabetes prevalence and self-management do exist. Future interventions to further control diabetes and improve diabetes management must be tailored to address socioeconomic factors.

The prevalence of five common chronic diseases and multi-morbidity and its relationship with socioeconomic position among rural older adults in Yunnan Province / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To analyze the relationship between socioeconomic position and prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) and multi-morbidity among older adults in rural Yunnan Province. Methods A total of 4 833 older adults aged 60 years and over were selected by multi-stage stratified random sampling method in rural Yunnan Province. Information was acquired from questionnaire and health examination. Principal component analysis was used to construct the socioeconomic comprehensive score. Results The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, stroke, coronary heart disease, COPD and multi-morbidity in target persons was 50.6%, 10.2%, 6.4%, 5.5%, 5.4% and 16.1% respectively. The prevalence of hypertension and diabetes was much higher in female compared with male (both P<0.05), in contrast the prevalence of COPD was much higher in male than female( 2=5.499, P=0.019)The prevalence of hypertension, stroke, coronary heart disease, COPD and multi-morbidity was increased with age(all P<0.05);Minority ethnic were more likely to develop hypertension, coronary heart disease, COPD and multi-morbidity than Han ethnic(all P<0.05). The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that older adults with lower socioeconomic position had higher probability of suffering from hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke, COPD and multi-morbidity (all P<0.05). Conclusions There are significant socioeconomic differences between socioeconomic position and prevalence of five major chronic diseases and multi-morbidity among older adults in rural Yunnan province. Older adults with low socioeconomic position should be key population for future prevention and control of chronic diseases.

Study on sleep quality status and its relationship with cardiovascular disease in rural elderly in Ning’er county, Yunnan province / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To analyze the sleep quality status and its relationship with cardiovascular disease in rural elderly in Yunnan Province. Methods Multistage stratified random sampling method was used to select 1629 residents aged 60 years and over from Ning Er County in Yunnan province. Each participant received questionnaire survey and physical examination. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between sleep quality status and cardiovascular disease. Results Among the study population, the overall Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) score was 7.48±3.89,and was 6.67±3.69 for males and 8.07±3.92 for females. The prevalence of sleep disorder, hypertension, coronary heart disease and stroke were 56.78%, 52.85%, 8.16% and 8.66%, respectively. Females had higher prevalence of sleep disorder than males (62.81% and 48.55%，P<0.001). The elderly with lower annual average family per capital income and bad access to medical services had higher prevalence of sleep disorder than their counterparts (P<0.001).The elderly with sleep disorder was more likely to suffer from hypertension, coronary heart disease and stroke (P<0.05). Conclusion The prevalence of sleep disorder is high in rural elderly in Yunnan Province. Improving sleep quality among the elderly can prevent and control cardiovascular diseases to a certain degree.

Predictive study on school absences due to illness with seasonal exponential smoothing method / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To establish a suitable exponential smoothing prediction model for school absentees due to illness, to discuss its application value for predicting school absences due to illness, and to provide a basis for early warning of absence due to illness. Methods Numbers of schools absences by year and month due to illness in 30 primary schools from November 2015 to June 2017 were collected from symptom monitoring system of border county, southern Yunnan and Simple seasonal model, Winters addition model and Winters multiplication model were used to build simulation. The data of July 2017 to December 2017 were used for model validation. The three models were overall compared and evaluated through indicator analysis, statistical analysis and residual diagram analysis. The best model was selected to predict school absences due to illness from January 2018 to March 2018. Results Simple seasonal model, Winters addition model and Winters multiplication model were used to fit the variation trend of number of school absences due to illness in time series. The root mean square error (RMSE) of three models were 445.11, 420.99 and 258.75; R2adj were 0.72, 0.72 and 0.77; R2 were 0.92, 0.93 and 0.98; P values of Ljung-Box Q were 0.54, 0.43 and 0.21. As for prediction method linear trend, Alpha were 0.999, 1.000 and 0.298. The average relative error between predicted value and actual value was 9.62%, 21.90% and 7.52%. Conclusion Winters multiplication model has practical value to predict school absence due to illness and provide scientific basis for early identification of abnormal signals.