Continent-wide risk assessment for the establishment of nonindigenous species in Antarctica.

Invasive alien species are among the primary causes of biodiversity change globally, with the risks thereof broadly understood for most regions of the world. They are similarly thought to be among the most significant conservation threats to Antarctica, especially as climate change proceeds in the region. However, no comprehensive, continent-wide evaluation of the risks to Antarctica posed by such species has been undertaken. Here we do so by sampling, identifying, and mapping the vascular plant propagules carried by all categories of visitors to Antarctica during the International Polar Year's first season (2007-2008) and assessing propagule establishment likelihood based on their identity and origins and on spatial variation in Antarctica's climate. For an evaluation of the situation in 2100, we use modeled climates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Scenario A1B [Nakicenovic N, Swart R, eds (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK)]. Visitors carrying seeds average 9.5 seeds per person, although as vectors, scientists carry greater propagule loads than tourists. Annual tourist numbers (∼33,054) are higher than those of scientists (∼7,085), thus tempering these differences in propagule load. Alien species establishment is currently most likely for the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Recent founder populations of several alien species in this area corroborate these findings. With climate change, risks will grow in the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Sea, and East Antarctic coastal regions. Our evidence-based assessment demonstrates which parts of Antarctica are at growing risk from alien species that may become invasive and provides the means to mitigate this threat now and into the future as the continent's climate changes.

Spotlight on the invasion of a carabid beetle on an oceanic island over a 105-year period.

The flightless beetle Merizodus soledadinus, native to the Falkland Islands and southern South America, was introduced to the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands in the early Twentieth Century. Using available literature data, in addition to collecting more than 2000 new survey (presence/absence) records of M. soledadinus over the 1991-2018 period, we confirmed the best estimate of the introduction date of M. soledadinus to the archipelago, and tracked subsequent changes in its abundance and geographical distribution. The range expansion of this flightless insect was initially slow, but has accelerated over the past 2 decades, in parallel with increased local abundance. Human activities may have facilitated further local colonization by M. soledadinus, which is now widespread in the eastern part of the archipelago. This predatory insect is a major threat to the native invertebrate fauna, in particular to the endemic wingless flies Anatalanta aptera and Calycopteryx moseleyi which can be locally eliminated by the beetle. Our distribution data also suggest an accelerating role of climate change in the range expansion of M. soledadinus, with populations now thriving in low altitude habitats. Considering that no control measures, let alone eradication, are practicable, it is essential to limit any further local range expansion of this aggressively invasive insect through human assistance. This study confirms the crucial importance of long term biosurveillance for the detection and monitoring of non-native species and the timely implementation of control measures.

The importance of relative humidity and trophic resources in governing ecological niche of the invasive carabid beetle Merizodus soledadinus in the Kerguelen archipelago.

Comprehensive studies to identify species-specific drivers of survival to environmental stress, reproduction, growth, and recruitment are vital to gaining a better understanding of the main ecological factors shaping species habitat distribution and dispersal routes. The present study performed a field-based assessment of habitat distribution in the invasive carabid beetle Merizodus soledadinus for the Kerguelen archipelago. The results emphasised humid habitats as a key element of the insect's realised niche. In addition, insects faced food and water stress during dispersal events. We evaluated quantitatively how water availability and trophic resources governed the spatial distribution of this invasive predatory insect at Îles Kerguelen. Food and water stress survival durations [in 100%, 70%, and 30% relative humidity (RH) conditions] and changes in a set of primary metabolic compounds (metabolomics) were determined. Adult M. soledadinus supplied with water ad libitum were highly tolerant to prolonged starvation (LT50=51.7±6.2d). However, food-deprived insect survival decreased rapidly in moderate (70% RH, LT50=30.37±1.39h) and low (30% RH, LT50=13.03±0.48h) RH conditions. Consistently, body water content decreased rapidly in insects exposed to 70% and 30% RH. Metabolic variation evidenced the effects of food deprivation in control insects (exposed to 100% RH), which exhibited a progressive decline of most glycolytic sugars and tricarboxylic acid cycle intermediates. Most metabolite levels were elevated levels during the first few hours of exposure to 30% and 70% RH. Augmented alanine and lactate levels suggested a shift to anaerobic metabolism. Simultaneously, peaks in threonine and glycolytic sugars pointed to metabolic disruption and a progressive physiological breakdown in dehydrating individuals. Overall, the results of our study indicate that the geographic distribution of M. soledadinus populations is highly dependent on habitat RH and water accessibility.

Soil calcium availability influences shell ecophenotype formation in the sub-antarctic land snail, Notodiscus hookeri.

Ecophenotypes reflect local matches between organisms and their environment, and show plasticity across generations in response to current living conditions. Plastic responses in shell morphology and shell growth have been widely studied in gastropods and are often related to environmental calcium availability, which influences shell biomineralisation. To date, all of these studies have overlooked micro-scale structure of the shell, in addition to how it is related to species responses in the context of environmental pressure. This study is the first to demonstrate that environmental factors induce a bi-modal variation in the shell micro-scale structure of a land gastropod. Notodiscus hookeri is the only native land snail present in the Crozet Archipelago (sub-Antarctic region). The adults have evolved into two ecophenotypes, which are referred to here as MS (mineral shell) and OS (organic shell). The MS-ecophenotype is characterised by a thick mineralised shell. It is primarily distributed along the coastline, and could be associated to the presence of exchangeable calcium in the clay minerals of the soils. The Os-ecophenotype is characterised by a thin organic shell. It is primarily distributed at high altitudes in the mesic and xeric fell-fields in soils with large particles that lack clay and exchangeable calcium. Snails of the Os-ecophenotype are characterised by thinner and larger shell sizes compared to snails of the MS-ecophenotype, indicating a trade-off between mineral thickness and shell size. This pattern increased along a temporal scale; whereby, older adult snails were more clearly separated into two clusters compared to the younger adult snails. The prevalence of glycine-rich proteins in the organic shell layer of N. hookeri, along with the absence of chitin, differs to the organic scaffolds of molluscan biominerals. The present study provides new insights for testing the adaptive value of phenotypic plasticity in response to spatial and temporal environmental variations.

Variable temperature effects of Open Top Chambers at polar and alpine sites explained by irradiance and snow depth.

Environmental manipulation studies are integral to determining biological consequences of climate warming. Open Top Chambers (OTCs) have been widely used to assess summer warming effects on terrestrial biota, with their effects during other seasons normally being given less attention even though chambers are often deployed year-round. In addition, their effects on temperature extremes and freeze-thaw events are poorly documented. To provide robust documentation of the microclimatic influences of OTCs throughout the year, we analysed temperature data from 20 studies distributed across polar and alpine regions. The effects of OTCs on mean temperature showed a large range (-0.9 to 2.1 °C) throughout the year, but did not differ significantly between studies. Increases in mean monthly and diurnal temperature were strongly related (R(2)  = 0.70) with irradiance, indicating that PAR can be used to predict the mean warming effect of OTCs. Deeper snow trapped in OTCs also induced higher temperatures at soil/vegetation level. OTC-induced changes in the frequency of freeze-thaw events included an increase in autumn and decreases in spring and summer. Frequency of high-temperature events in OTCs increased in spring, summer and autumn compared with non-manipulated control plots. Frequency of low-temperature events was reduced by deeper snow accumulation and higher mean temperatures. The strong interactions identified between aspects of ambient environmental conditions and effects of OTCs suggest that a detailed knowledge of snow depth, temperature and irradiance levels enables us to predict how OTCs will modify the microclimate at a particular site and season. Such predictive power allows a better mechanistic understanding of observed biotic response to experimental warming studies and for more informed design of future experiments. However, a need remains to quantify OTC effects on water availability and wind speed (affecting, for example, drying rates and water stress) in combination with microclimate measurements at organism level.