Regulatory-grade clinical trial design using real-world data.

Real-world data and evidence provide the potential to address the effectiveness and safety of drugs. The U.S. Food & Drug Administration has initiated a program to evaluate the potential use of real-world evidence for regulatory uses. Whether a study is designed for regulatory purposes or for other purposes, existing regulation and guidance provide a reference for high-quality studies. Clarifying the study objectives and the role of real-world data in the study are important considerations. Robustness and transparency of the analysis allow for greater understanding and acceptance of the study results.

The impact of FDA regulatory activities on incident dispensing of LABA-containing medication: 2005-2011.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence of safety issues associated with long-acting beta2-agonist (LABA) treatment has led to multiple regulatory activities by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on this class of medications. This study describes the impact of the regulatory activities on incident LABA-containing medication dispensing. METHODS: A monthly rolling cohort of asthma patients who were eligible to initiate a LABA-containing product was created in the Mini-Sentinel Distributed Database between January 2005 and June 2011. Cohorts of individuals who initiated LABA were examined for the changes in the proportions of single-ingredient to fixed-dose inhaled corticosteroid (ICS)-LABA initiators, appropriate initiation of LABA-containing products, and use of controller medications. The impact of the 2005 and 2010 FDA regulatory activities associated with LABA-containing products was measured using interrupted time series with segmented regression. RESULTS: LABA-containing product initiation was declining prior to the 2005 regulatory activities and continued to decline over the study period, accompanied by increased initiation of fixed dose ICS-LABA among LABA initiators. While the 2010 regulatory activities had no immediate impact on the proportion of LABA initiation in patients with prior controller medication dispensing and/or poor asthma control, there was an increasing positive trend toward LABA initiation in the appropriate patient population after the regulatory activities. CONCLUSION: The 2005 and 2010 FDA regulatory activities likely had an impact on communicating the safety concerns of LABA products. However, the impact cannot be viewed independent of scientific publications, guidelines for asthma treatment and other regulatory activities.

Important statistical considerations in the evaluation of post-market studies to assess whether opioids with abuse-deterrent properties result in reduced abuse in the community.

PURPOSE: Abuse, misuse, addiction, overdose, and death associated with non-medical use of prescription opioids have become a serious public health concern. Reformulation of these products with abuse-deterrent properties is one approach for addressing this problem. FDA has approved several extended-release opioid analgesics with abuse-deterrent labeling, the bases of which come from pre-market studies. As all opioid analgesics must be capable of delivering the opioid in order to reduce pain, abuse-deterrent properties do not prevent abuse, nor do pre-market evaluations ensure that there will be reduced abuse in the community. Utilizing data from various surveillance systems, some recent post-market studies suggest a decline in abuse of extended-release oxycodone after reformulation with abuse-deterrent properties. We discuss challenges stemming from the use of such data. METHODS: We quantify the relationship between the sample, the population, and the underlying sampling mechanism and identify the necessary conditions if valid statements about the population are to be made. The presence of other interventions in the community necessitates the use of comparators. We discuss the principles under which the use of comparators can be meaningful. CONCLUSIONS: Results based on surveillance data need to be interpreted with caution as the underlying sampling mechanisms can bias the results in unpredictable ways. The use of comparators has the potential to disentangle the effect due to the abuse-deterrence properties from those due to other interventions. However, identifying a comparator that is meaningful can be very difficult.

Changing patterns of asthma medication use related to US Food and Drug Administration long-acting ß2-agonist regulation from 2005-2011.

BACKGROUND: Safety concerns associated with long-acting ß2-agonists (LABAs) have led to many US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulatory activities for this class of drugs. Little is known about the effect of these regulatory activities on use of LABA-containing agents or other asthma medications. METHODS: We created rolling cohorts of pediatric and adult asthmatic patients in the Mini-Sentinel Distributed Database between January 2005 and June 2011. The proportions of asthmatic patients using LABA-containing products, inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs), leukotriene modifiers, short-acting ß2-agonists, oral corticosteroids, other bronchodilators, and no medications were measured on a monthly basis, and the changes were evaluated by using interrupted time series with segmented regression analysis. RESULTS: When the 2005 regulatory activity was announced, there were statistically significant decreases in the use of fixed-dose ICS-LABA agents in children (-0.98 percentage points) and adults (-1.24 percentage points). Increased use of ICSs and leukotriene modifiers was observed just after the regulatory activities were announced in both children and adults. Although of smaller magnitude, continued favorable changes in the use of LABA agents were observed after the 2010 FDA regulatory activity. CONCLUSION: The 2005 and 2010 FDA regulatory activities might have contributed to reduced use of LABA agents, as intended; however, their effect, independent of other factors, cannot be determined. Use of other classes of asthma medications was similarly affected.

Cardiovascular, bleeding, and mortality risks in elderly Medicare patients treated with dabigatran or warfarin for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: The comparative safety of dabigatran versus warfarin for treatment of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation in general practice settings has not been established. METHODS AND RESULTS: We formed new-user cohorts of propensity score-matched elderly patients enrolled in Medicare who initiated dabigatran or warfarin for treatment of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation between October 2010 and December 2012. Among 134 414 patients with 37 587 person-years of follow-up, there were 2715 primary outcome events. The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) comparing dabigatran with warfarin (reference) were as follows: ischemic stroke, 0.80 (0.67-0.96); intracranial hemorrhage, 0.34 (0.26-0.46); major gastrointestinal bleeding, 1.28 (1.14-1.44); acute myocardial infarction, 0.92 (0.78-1.08); and death, 0.86 (0.77-0.96). In the subgroup treated with dabigatran 75 mg twice daily, there was no difference in risk compared with warfarin for any outcome except intracranial hemorrhage, in which case dabigatran risk was reduced. Most patients treated with dabigatran 75 mg twice daily appeared not to have severe renal impairment, the intended population for this dose. In the dabigatran 150-mg twice daily subgroup, the magnitude of effect for each outcome was greater than in the combined-dose analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In general practice settings, dabigatran was associated with reduced risk of ischemic stroke, intracranial hemorrhage, and death and increased risk of major gastrointestinal hemorrhage compared with warfarin in elderly patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. These associations were most pronounced in patients treated with dabigatran 150 mg twice daily, whereas the association of 75 mg twice daily with study outcomes was indistinguishable from warfarin except for a lower risk of intracranial hemorrhage with dabigatran.

Uptake of new drugs in the early post-approval period in the Mini-Sentinel distributed database.

PURPOSE: Several factors limit the statistical power of drug safety surveillance during the early post-approval period, including uptake of the drug and lag in data availability. This study characterized new drug uptake in the Mini-Sentinel Distributed Database and determined statistical power to detect levels of risk in post-launch safety assessments. METHODS: The cumulative exposure among initiators of 46 new molecular entities approved from 2008 to 2011 was assessed. Using a Poisson estimation method, minimum incidence rate ratios (IRRs) detectable, with 80% power, were calculated under varying background incidence rates. RESULTS: Twelve products (26.1%) had more than 15 000 new users after 2 years. With comparator group incidence rate of 1/1000 person-years, 16 (33.3%) products had enough exposure to detect an IRR of 5 with 24 months of data collected that would be available for assessment at 33 months post-launch. With an incidence rate of 5/1000 person-years, 23 (50%) products had enough exposure to detect an IRR of ≥3 with 2 years of data collected. At 33 months post-launch, only two (4.3%) of the drugs examined had enough data availability to detect IRR of <2, and eight (17.4%) of <3, with a background rate of 1/1000 person-years. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the importance of drug uptake and data availability in early post-approval drug safety surveillance in Mini-Sentinel. There is limited ability to detect rate ratios below three for events with background rates of 1/1000 person-years or lower. This is largely due to low product uptake. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Design and analysis choices for safety surveillance evaluations need to be tuned to the specifics of the hypothesized drug-outcome association.

BACKGROUND: We reviewed the results of the Observational Medical Outcomes Research Partnership (OMOP) 2010 Experiment in hopes of finding examples where apparently well-designed drug studies repeatedly produce anomalous findings. OMOP had applied thousands of designs and design parameters to 53 drug-outcome pairs across 10 electronic data resources. Our intent was to use this repository to elucidate some sources of error in observational studies. METHOD: From the 2010 OMOP Experiment, we sought drug-outcome-method combinations (DOMCs) that met consensus design criteria, yet repeatedly produced results contrary to expectation. We set aside DOMCs for which we could not agree on the suitability of the designs, then selected for an in-depth scrutiny one drug-outcome pair analyzed by a seemingly plausible methodological approach, whose results consistently disagreed with the a priori expectation. RESULTS: The OMOP "all-by-all" assessment of possible DOMCs yielded many combinations that would not be chosen by researchers as actual study options. Among those that passed a first level of scrutiny, two of seven drug-outcome pairs for which there were plausible research designs had anomalous results. The use of benzodiazepines was unexpectedly associated with acute renal failure and upper gastrointestinal bleeding. We chose the latter as an example for in-depth study. The factitious appearance of a bleeding risk may have been partly driven by an excess of procedures on the first day of treatment. A risk window definition that excluded the first day largely removed the spurious association. CONCLUSION: One cause of reproducible "error" may be repeated failure to tie design choices closely enough to the research question at hand. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The role of quantitative safety evaluation in regulatory decision making of drugs.

Evaluation of safety is a critical component of drug review at the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Statisticians are playing an increasingly visible role in quantitative safety evaluation and regulatory decision-making. This article reviews the history and the recent events relating to quantitative drug safety evaluation at the FDA. The article then focuses on five active areas of quantitative drug safety evaluation and the role Division of Biometrics VII (DBVII) plays in these areas, namely meta-analysis for safety evaluation, large safety outcome trials, post-marketing requirements (PMRs), the Sentinel Initiative, and the evaluation of risk from extended/long-acting opioids. This article will focus chiefly on developments related to quantitative drug safety evaluation and not on the many additional developments in drug safety in general.

Comparative Risk of Anaphylactic Reactions Associated With Intravenous Iron Products.

IMPORTANCE: All intravenous (IV) iron products are associated with anaphylaxis, but the comparative safety of each product has not been well established. OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of anaphylaxis among marketed IV iron products. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective new user cohort study of IV iron recipients (n = 688,183) enrolled in the US fee-for-service Medicare program from January 2003 to December 2013. Analyses involving ferumoxytol were limited to the period January 2010 to December 2013. EXPOSURES: Administrations of IV iron dextran, gluconate, sucrose, or ferumoxytol as reported in outpatient Medicare claims data. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Anaphylaxis was identified using a prespecified and validated algorithm defined with standard diagnosis and procedure codes and applied to both inpatient and outpatient Medicare claims. The absolute and relative risks of anaphylaxis were estimated, adjusting for imbalances among treatment groups. RESULTS: A total of 274 anaphylaxis cases were identified at first exposure, with an additional 170 incident anaphylaxis cases identified during subsequent IV iron administrations. The risk for anaphylaxis at first exposure was 68 per 100,000 persons for iron dextran (95% CI, 57.8-78.7 per 100,000) and 24 per 100,000 persons for all nondextran IV iron products combined (iron sucrose, gluconate, and ferumoxytol) (95% CI, 20.0-29.5 per 100,000) , with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 2.6 (95% CI, 2.0-3.3; P < .001). At first exposure, when compared with iron sucrose, the adjusted OR of anaphylaxis for iron dextran was 3.6 (95% CI, 2.4-5.4); for iron gluconate, 2.0 (95% CI 1.2, 3.5); and for ferumoxytol, 2.2 (95% CI, 1.1-4.3). The estimated cumulative anaphylaxis risk following total iron repletion of 1000 mg administered within a 12-week period was highest with iron dextran (82 per 100,000 persons, 95% CI, 70.5- 93.1) and lowest with iron sucrose (21 per 100,000 persons, 95% CI, 15.3- 26.4). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among patients in the US Medicare nondialysis population with first exposure to IV iron, the risk of anaphylaxis was highest for iron dextran and lowest for iron sucrose.

Risk of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or death in patients initiating olmesartan or other angiotensin receptor blockers - a cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

PURPOSE: Results of two randomized trials (ROADMAP and ORIENT) suggest that high-dose (40 mg/day) olmesartan (Olm) is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality compared to placebo in diabetic patients. We evaluated the risks of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and death in patients initiating Olm compared with an active comparator group, other angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), with a focus on high-dose and diabetic subgroups. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study with patients who initiated Olm or another ARB between 2003 and 2011, using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD. We included patients who had no prior ARB or angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor exposure during the preceding 6 months. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression models with both multivariable adjustment and propensity score matching. RESULTS: There were 3964 Olm and 54 653 other-ARB initiators, respectively. Adjusted HRs comparing Olm and other-ARBs were 1.04 (95% CI: 0.75-1.42) for AMI and 1.16 (0.95-1.42) for death, using multivariable adjustment. Comparing patients initiated with a high-dose Olm and a high-dose other-ARB, HRs were 3.09 (0.94-10.13) for AMI and 2.03 (0.74-5.61) for death, using multivariable adjustment; and 4.38 (0.97-19.66) and 1.99 (0.63-6.32) for AMI and death, using propensity score matching. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, no differences in risk were observed in the main cohort analyses comparing Olm initiators with patients initiating therapy with other ARBs; however, HRs were marginally increased for all study endpoints which compared high-dose subgroups, suggesting potential increased risk may be associated with high-dose Olm. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Cardiovascular and mortality risk in elderly Medicare beneficiaries treated with olmesartan versus other angiotensin receptor blockers.

PURPOSE: In the randomized trial, Randomized Olmesartan and Diabetes Microalbuminuria Prevention, acute cardiovascular death was increased nearly fivefold in diabetic patients treated with high-dose olmesartan, an angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB), compared with placebo. METHODS: Medicare beneficiaries were entered into new-user cohorts of olmesartan or other ARBs and followed on therapy for occurrence of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. Analyses focused on specific subgroups defined by diabetes status, ARB dose, and duration of therapy. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression, with other ARBs as reference. RESULTS: A total of 158,054 olmesartan and 724,673 other ARB users were followed for 54,285 and 260,390 person-years, respectively, during which 9237 endpoint events occurred. Lower-dose olmesartan was not associated with increased risk for any endpoint, regardless of duration of use. High-dose olmesartan for 6 months or longer was associated with increased risk of death in patients with diabetes (HR 2.03, 95%CI 1.09-3.75, p = 0.02) and with reduced risk in nondiabetic patients (HR 0.46, 95%CI 0.24-0.86, p = 0.01). Some, but not all, sensitivity analyses suggested that selective prescribing of olmesartan to healthier patients (channeling bias) may have accounted for the reduced risk in nondiabetic patients. CONCLUSIONS: High-dose olmesartan was associated with an increased risk of death in diabetic patients treated for 6 months or longer and with a reduced risk of death in nondiabetic patients, when compared with use of other ARBs. This latter effect was probably because of selective prescribing of olmesartan to healthier patients, although effect modification cannot be excluded. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Cardiovascular and mortality risks in older Medicare patients treated with varenicline or bupropion for smoking cessation: an observational cohort study.

PURPOSE: To compare cardiovascular and mortality risks in elderly patients treated with varenicline or bupropion for smoking cessation. METHODS: Elderly Medicare beneficiaries were entered into new-user cohorts of varenicline or bupropion for smoking cessation and followed on therapy for primary outcomes of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, mortality, and a composite of any of these events. Secondary outcomes were unstable angina, coronary revascularization, and a composite of any primary or secondary outcome event. Propensity score stratification was used to adjust for baseline differences in potential confounding factors. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards, with bupropion as reference. RESULTS: In cohorts of 74 824 varenicline and 14 133 bupropion users, there were 164 AMI, 96 stroke, 87 death, 317 primary composite, and 814 secondary composite events while on therapy. The HRs (95%CI) were 0.79 (0.50-1.24) for AMI, 1.27 (0.63-2.55) for stroke, 0.58 (0.30-1.13) for death, 0.84 (0.58-1.23) for the primary composite, and 0.92 (0.73-1.14) for the secondary composite. The risk of AMI or the primary composite outcome did not differ in subgroups defined by age, diabetes status, or presence of underlying ischemic heart disease. Only 30% of patients remained on either study drug beyond their first prescription. CONCLUSION: Cardiovascular and mortality risks were not increased in older patients treated with varenicline compared with bupropion for smoking cessation. A potential increase in the risk of stroke with varenicline could not be excluded. Treatment persistence with either drug was low. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Round window reinforcement for superior semicircular canal dehiscence: a retrospective multi-center case series.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the outcome of round window (RW) tissue reinforcement in the management of superior semicircular canal dehiscence (SSCD). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty-two patients with confirmed diagnosis of SSCD by clinical presentation, imaging, and/or testing were included in the study. Six surgeons at four institutions conducted a multicenter chart review of patients treated for symptomatic superior canal dehiscence using RW tissue reinforcement or complete RW occlusion. A transcanal approach was used to reinforce the RW with various types of tissue. Patients completed a novel postoperative survey, grading preoperative and postoperative symptom severity. RESULTS: Analysis revealed statistically significant improvement in all symptoms with the exception of hearing loss in 19 patients who underwent RW reinforcement. In contrast, 2 of 3 participants who underwent the alternate treatment of RW niche occlusion experienced worsened symptoms requiring revision surgery. CONCLUSION: RW tissue reinforcement may reduce the symptoms associated with SSCD. The reinforcement technique may benefit SSCD patients by reducing the "third window" effect created by a dehiscent semicircular canal. Given its low risks compared to middle cranial fossa or transmastoid canal occlusion, RW reinforcement may prove to be a suitable initial procedure for intractable SSCD. In contrast, complete RW occlusion is not advised.

Cardiovascular and mortality risks in Parkinson's disease patients treated with entacapone.

The controlled trial Stalevo Reduction in Dyskinesia Evaluation in Parkinson's Disease (STRIDE-PD) reported an unexpected increase in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) with entacapone use in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). The authors investigated whether entacapone increased cardiovascular and mortality risk compared with the use of a non-levodopa dopamine agonist (DA) or a selective monoamine oxidase type-B inhibitor (MAOBI). Using national Medicare data, a new-user cohort of elderly patients with PD treated with entacapone was propensity score (PS) matched with new users of either DA or MAOBI. The PS model included variables for sociodemographics, cardiovascular disease, medications, prior PD treatment, and comorbidities. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to compare on-therapy time to event for AMI, stroke, and death with DA-MAOBI as a reference. Study cohorts included 8681 entacapone-treated and 17,362 DA-MAOBI-treated initators who were followed for 2569 and 5385 person-years, respectively. Cohorts were closely balanced for all covariates. During follow-up, there were 106 AMIs, 89 strokes, and 201 deaths. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) associated with entacapone use was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.57-1.30) for AMI, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.54-1.35) for stroke, and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.58-1.07) for death. The risk was unchanged for treatment of ≤ 6 months' and>6 months' duration and was unaffected by adjustment for time-varying levodopa use during follow-up. The risk of each endpoint was not differentially affected by diabetes, ischemic heart disease, or kidney failure status. However, the risk of stroke was modified by the presence (HR, 2.09; 95% CI, 0.98-4.45) or absence (HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.27-0.95) of advanced PD-related morbidities (P value for interaction=0.004). Entacapone was not associated with an increased risk of AMI, stroke, or death in elderly patients with PD.

Use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in pregnancy and cardiac malformations: a propensity-score matched cohort in CPRD.

PURPOSE: Research on the association of maternal selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) use and cardiac malformations in the offspring has yielded conflicting findings. We therefore sought to further investigate the association using data from a large population-based cohort in the UK. METHODS: The study population consisted of 149 464 pregnancies ending in a live birth between January/1996 and November/2010 from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink's Mother Baby Link. We created propensity-score matched cohorts of first-trimester SSRI users who did not use other antidepressants in the same gestational period ('SSRI users', n=3046) and non-antidepressant users (no use from the 3 months before pregnancy through the second trimester of pregnancy, 'non-users'; n=8991). Weighted logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of cardiac malformations overall and septal defects diagnosed in the first year of life, or in the first 6 years of life. RESULTS: Sixteen infants with cardiac malformations were identified among SSRI users; 10 of them were septal defects. Among non-users, there were 48 infants with cardiac malformations, 26 of whom had septal defects. The OR (95% CI) for cardiac malformations was 1.00 (0.50; 2.00), and for septal defects was 1.15 (0.46; 2.87). Results were similar for cardiac malformations diagnosed in the first 6 years of life, and in several sensitivity analyses that were also implemented. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study are most compatible with no association between maternal use of SSRIs in early pregnancy and cardiac malformations or septal defects in the offspring. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Multivariable confounding adjustment in distributed data networks without sharing of patient-level data.

PURPOSE: It is increasingly necessary to analyze data from multiple sources when conducting public health safety surveillance or comparative effectiveness research. However, security, privacy, proprietary, and legal concerns often reduce data holders' willingness to share highly granular information. We describe and compare two approaches that do not require sharing of patient-level information to adjust for confounding in multi-site studies. METHODS: We estimated the risks of angioedema associated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), and aliskiren in comparison with beta-blockers within Mini-Sentinel, which has created a distributed data system of 18 health plans. To obtain the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), we performed (i) a propensity score-stratified case-centered logistic regression analysis, a method identical to a stratified Cox regression analysis but needing only aggregated risk set data, and (ii) an inverse variance-weighted meta-analysis, which requires only the site-specific HR and variance. We also performed simulations to further compare the two methods. RESULTS: Compared with beta-blockers, the adjusted HR was 3.04 (95% CI: 2.81, 3.27) for ACEIs, 1.16 (1.00, 1.34) for ARBs, and 2.85 (1.34, 6.04) for aliskiren in the case-centered analysis. The corresponding HRs were 2.98 (2.76, 3.21), 1.15 (1.00, 1.33), and 2.86 (1.35, 6.04) in the meta-analysis. Simulations suggested that the two methods may produce different results under certain analytic scenarios. CONCLUSION: The case-centered analysis and the meta-analysis produced similar results without the need to share patient-level data across sites in our empirical study, but may provide different results in other study settings.

Regulatory issues of propensity score methodology application to drug and device safety studies.

While randomized, well-controlled, clinical trials have been viewed as the gold standard in the evaluation of medical products, including drugs, biological products, and medical devices, it is not uncommon for safety assessment to be performed using observational studies, for ethical or practical reasons. In observational studies, various biases could be introduced in every stage and aspect of study, and consequently the resulting statistical inference may carry a lower level of scientific assurance, compared to randomized trials. To ensure the objectivity of study design and interpretability of the results, it is critical to address the challenges of such studies. In this paper, we share regulatory considerations on the prospective design of observational studies to address safety issues using propensity score methodology.

Effect of Mailing Educational Material to Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Their Clinicians on Use of Oral Anticoagulants: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Only about half of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who are at increased risk for stroke are treated with an oral anticoagulant (OAC), despite guideline recommendations for their use. Educating patients with AF about prevention of stroke with OACs may enable them as agents of change to initiate OAC treatment. Objective: To determine whether an educational intervention directed to patients and their clinicians stimulates the use of OACs in patients with AF who are not receiving OACs. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Implementation of a Randomized Controlled Trial to Improve Treatment With Oral Anticoagulants in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation (IMPACT-AFib) trial was a prospective, multicenter, open-label, pragmatic randomized clinical trial conducted from September 25, 2017, to May 1, 2019, embedded in health plans that participate in the US Food and Drug Administration's Sentinel System. It used the distributed database comprising health plan members to identify eligible patients, their clinicians, and outcomes. IMPACT-AFib enrolled patients with AF, a CHA2DS2-VASc (cardiac failure or dysfunction, hypertension, age 65-74 [1 point] or ≥75 years [2 points], diabetes, and stroke, transient ischemic attack or thromboembolism [2 points]-vascular disease, and sex category [female]) score of 2 or more, no evidence of OAC prescription dispensing in the preceding 12 months, and no hospitalization-related bleeding event within the prior 6 months. Interventions: Randomization to a single mailing of patient and/or clinician educational materials vs control. Main Outcomes and Measures: Analysis was performed on a modified intention-to-treat basis. The primary end point was the proportion of patients with at least 1 OAC prescription dispensed or at least 4 international normalized ratio test results within 1 year of the intervention. Results: Among 47 333 patients, there were 24 909 men (52.6%), the mean (SD) age was 77.9 (9.7) years, mean (SD) CHA2DS2-VASc score was 4.5 (1.7), 22 404 patients (47.3%) had an ATRIA (Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation) bleeding risk score of 5 or more, and 8890 patients (18.8%) had a history of hospitalization for bleeding. There were 2328 of 23 546 patients (9.9%) in the intervention group with initiation of OAC at 1 year compared with 2330 of 23 787 patients (9.8%) in the control group (adjusted OR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.95-1.07]; P = .79). Conclusions and Relevance: Among a large population with AF with a guideline indication for OACs for stroke prevention who were randomized to a mailed educational intervention or to usual care, there was no clinically meaningful, numerical, or statistically significant difference in rates of OAC initiation. More-intensive interventions are needed to try and address the public health issue of underuse of anticoagulation for stroke prevention among patients with AF. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03259373.