Telomere length and immunosuppression in non-idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis interstitial lung disease.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest a harmful pharmacogenomic interaction exists between short leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and immunosuppressants in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). It remains unknown if a similar interaction exists in non-IPF interstitial lung disease (ILD). METHODS: A retrospective, multicentre cohort analysis was performed in fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (fHP), unclassifiable ILD (uILD) and connective tissue disease (CTD)-ILD patients from five centres. LTL was measured by quantitative PCR for discovery and replication cohorts and expressed as age-adjusted percentiles of normal. Inverse probability of treatment weights based on propensity scores were used to assess the association between mycophenolate or azathioprine exposure and age-adjusted LTL on 2-year transplant-free survival using weighted Cox proportional hazards regression incorporating time-dependent immunosuppressant exposure. RESULTS: The discovery and replication cohorts included 613 and 325 patients, respectively. In total, 40% of patients were exposed to immunosuppression and 22% had LTL <10th percentile of normal. fHP and uILD patients with LTL <10th percentile experienced reduced survival when exposed to either mycophenolate or azathioprine in the discovery cohort (mortality hazard ratio (HR) 4.97, 95% CI 2.26-10.92; p<0.001) and replication cohort (mortality HR 4.90, 95% CI 1.74-13.77; p=0.003). Immunosuppressant exposure was not associated with differential survival in patients with LTL ≥10th percentile. There was a significant interaction between LTL <10th percentile and immunosuppressant exposure (discovery pinteraction=0.013; replication pinteraction=0.011). Low event rate and prevalence of LTL <10th percentile precluded subgroup analyses for CTD-ILD. CONCLUSION: Similar to IPF, fHP and uILD patients with age-adjusted LTL <10th percentile may experience reduced survival when exposed to immunosuppression.

Validation of Respiratory Rate-Oxygenation Index in Patients With COVID-19-Related Respiratory Failure.

OBJECTIVES: The respiratory rate-oxygenation (ROX) index is a fraction of oxygen saturation, Fio2, and respiratory rate that has been validated to predict receipt of invasive mechanical ventilation in patients receiving high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC). This study aimed to validate ROX in a cohort of inpatients with COVID-19-related respiratory failure. DESIGN: Retrospective validation of the ROX index. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and 95% CIs of ROX for invasive mechanical ventilation any time during hospitalization. SETTING: Twenty-one hospitals of Kaiser Permanente Northern California, an integrated healthcare delivery system. PATIENTS: We identified adults with positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 polymerase chain reaction test within 3 weeks of, or during, hospitalization between February 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. We calculated ROX at 12 hours after HFNC initiation. We grouped patients as low (≥ 4.88), intermediate (< 4.88 and ≥ 3.85), or high (< 3.85) risk using previously published thresholds. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We identified 1,847 patients who had no limitation of life support. Of these, 525 (31.7%) received invasive mechanical ventilation any time during hospitalization and 511 died (27.7%). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 12-hour ROX threshold (< 3.85) predicting invasive mechanical ventilation were 32.3% (95% CI, 28.5-36.3%), 89.8% (95% CI, 88.0-91.4%), 59.4% (95% CI, 53.8-64.9%), and 74.1% (95% CI, 71.8-76.3%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 12-hour ROX index has a positive predictive value (59.4%) using threshold of less than 3.85 for COVID-19 patients needing invasive mechanical ventilation. Our health system has embedded ROX into the electronic health record to prioritize rounding during periods of inpatient surge.

Peripheral blood leucocyte telomere length is associated with progression of interstitial lung disease in systemic sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral blood leucocyte telomere length (PBL-TL) is associated with outcomes in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Whether PBL-TL is associated with progression of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) is unknown. METHODS: A retrospective observational cohort study was performed using prospectively collected data from 213 patients with SSc followed at the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) Scleroderma Center. PBL-TL was measured by quantitative PCR of DNA isolated from peripheral blood. Associations between PBL-TL and pulmonary function test trends in patients with SSc-ILD were assessed by longitudinal analysis using Generalised Linear Mixed Models. Findings were validated in a cohort of 61 patients with SSc-ILD enrolled in the Stanford University Scleroderma Center database. RESULTS: Patients with UCSF SSc with ILD were found to have shorter PBL-TL compared with those without ILD (6554±671 base pairs (bp) vs 6782±698 bp, p=0.01). Shorter PBL-TL was associated with the presence of ILD (adjusted OR 2.1 per 1000 bp TL decrease, 95% CI [1.25 to 3.70], p=0.006). PBL-TL was shorter in patients with SSc-ILD lacking SSc-specific autoantibodies compared with seropositive subjects (6237±647 bp vs 6651±653 bp, p=0.004). Shorter PBL-TL was associated with increased risk for lung function deterioration with an average of 67 mL greater loss in per year for every 1000 bp decrease in PBL-TL in the combined SSc-ILD cohorts (longitudinal analysis, adjusted model: 95% CI -104 mL to -33 mL, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that telomere dysfunction may be associated with SSc-ILD progression and that PBL-TL measurement may be useful for stratifying risk for SSc-ILD progression.

Risk factors for disease progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

In this retrospective study of a randomised trial of simtuzumab in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), prodromal decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) was significantly associated with increased risk of mortality, respiratory and all-cause hospitalisations, and categorical disease progression. Predictive modelling of progression-free survival event risk was used to assess the effect of population enrichment for patients at risk of rapid progression of IPF; C-index values were 0.64 (death), 0.69 (disease progression), and 0.72 (adjudicated respiratory hospitalisation) and 0.76 (all-cause hospitalisation). Predictive modelling may be a useful tool for improving efficiency of clinical trials with categorical end points.

Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid lymphocytosis in chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The role of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) lymphocyte percentage in diagnosing chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (CHP) is unclear. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) lymphocyte percentage in the diagnosis of CHP. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library from inception to August 2019. Individual patient data were obtained to test performance characteristics of BAL lymphocyte percentage at different thresholds. Random-effects models were used for pooled estimates, with comparisons made between CHP and non-CHP interstitial lung diseases (ILDs). RESULTS: Fifty-three studies were included in the systematic review and 42 in the meta-analysis. The pooled estimate for BAL lymphocyte percentage was 42.8% (95% CI 37.7-47.8, I2=95.3%) in CHP, 10.0% (95% CI 6.9-13.1, I2=91.2%) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), 23.1% (95% CI 3.0-43.2, I2=85.2%) in non-IPF idiopathic interstitial pneumonia (IIP), 23.4% (95% CI 11.0-35.9, I2=45.7%) in connective-tissue disease associated ILD (CTD-ILD) and 31.2% (95% CI 17.6-44.8, I2=95.2%) in sarcoidosis. Results differed between CHP and IPF (p<0.0001), non-IPF IIP (p=0.0309) or CTD-ILD (p=0.0824), but not between CHP and sarcoidosis (p=0.0966). Using individual patient data from eight studies, a lymphocyte percentage threshold of >20% provided a sensitivity of 68.1% and a specificity of 64.8% for CHP. Higher thresholds provided lower sensitivity with higher specificity. Older age and ever having smoked were associated with lower lymphocyte percentage in CHP. CONCLUSIONS: BAL lymphocyte percentage is higher in CHP compared to IPF and other IIPs, with higher thresholds providing improved specificity at the cost of sensitivity. However, the parent studies are at risk of incorporation bias and prospective studies should evaluate the additive discriminate value of BAL lymphocyte percentage to accurately diagnose CHP.

Corticosteroid use is not associated with improved outcomes in acute exacerbation of IPF.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: AE-IPF has profound prognostic implications, preceding approximately half of all IPF-related deaths. Despite this clinical significance, there are limited data to guide management decisions. Corticosteroids remain the mainstay of treatment despite a lack of strong supporting evidence and mounting concern that they may be harmful. We assessed the impact of corticosteroid therapy on in-hospital mortality in AE-IPF patients. METHODS: AE-IPF subjects were retrospectively identified in the UCSF medical centre's electronic health records from 1 January 2010 to 1 August 2018 using a code-based algorithm followed by case validation. The relationship between corticosteroid treatment and in-hospital mortality was assessed using a Cox model and a propensity score to control for confounding by indication. Secondary outcomes included hospital readmissions and overall survival. RESULTS: In total, 82 AE-IPF subjects were identified, of whom 37 patients (45%) received corticosteroids. AE-IPF subjects treated with corticosteroids were more likely to require ICU level care and mechanical ventilation. There was no statistically significant association between corticosteroid treatment and in-hospital mortality (propensity score weighted, adjusted HR: 1.31; 95% CI: 0.26-6.55; P = 0.74). Overall survival was reduced in AE-IPF subjects receiving corticosteroids (HR: 6.17; 95% CI: 1.35-28.14; P = 0.019). CONCLUSION: Our study found no evidence that corticosteroid use improves outcomes in IPF patients admitted to the hospital with acute exacerbation. Furthermore, corticosteroid use may contribute to reduced overall survival following an exacerbation. Observational cohort studies using larger real-world cohorts can more definitively assess the relationship between corticosteroid treatment and short-term outcomes in AE-IPF.

Rare Protein-Altering Telomere-related Gene Variants in Patients with Chronic Hypersensitivity Pneumonitis.

Rationale: Rare genetic variants in telomere-related genes have been identified in familial, idiopathic, and rheumatoid arthritis-associated pulmonary fibrosis. Short peripheral blood leukocyte (PBL) telomere length predicts poor outcomes in chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (CHP).Objectives: Determine the prevalence and clinical relevance of rare protein-altering variants in telomere-related genes in patients with CHP.Methods: Next-generation sequences from two CHP cohorts were analyzed to identify variants in TERT (telomerase reverse transcriptase), TERC (telomerase RNA component), DKC1 (dyskerin pseudouridine synthase 1), RTEL1 (regulator of telomere elongation helicase 1), PARN (poly[A]-specific RNase), and TINF2 (TERF1-interacting nuclear factor 2). To qualify, variants were required to have a minor allele frequency less than 0.005 and be predicted to be damaging to protein function. Variant status (binary variable) was used in statistical association tests, including Cox proportional hazard models for transplant-free survival. PBL telomere length was measured using quantitative PCR.Measurements and Main Results: Qualifying variants were identified in 16 of 144 patients (11.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.5-17.4) in the discovery cohort and 17 of 209 patients (8.1%; 95% CI, 4.8-12.7) in the replication cohort. Age- and ancestry-adjusted PBL telomere length was significantly shorter in the presence of a variant in both cohorts (discovery: -561 bp; 95% CI, -933 to -190; P = 0.003; replication: -612 bp; 95% CI, -870 to -354; P = 5.30 × 10-6). Variant status was significantly associated with transplant-free survival in both cohorts (discovery: age-, sex-, and ancestry-adjusted hazard ratio, 3.73; 95% CI, 1.92-7.28; P = 0.0001; replication: hazard ratio, 2.72; 95% CI, 1.26-5.88; P = 0.011).Conclusions: A substantial proportion of patients diagnosed with CHP have rare, protein-altering variants in telomere-related genes, which are associated with short peripheral blood telomere length and significantly reduced transplant-free survival.

Diagnostic Likelihood Thresholds That Define a Working Diagnosis of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Rationale: The level of diagnostic likelihood at which physicians prescribe antifibrotic therapy without requesting surgical lung biopsy (SLB) in patients suspected of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is unknown.Objectives: To determine how often physicians advocate SLB in patient subgroups defined by IPF likelihood and risk associated with SLB, and to identify the level of diagnostic likelihood at which physicians prescribe antifibrotic therapy with requesting SLB.Methods: An international cohort of respiratory physicians evaluated 60 cases of interstitial lung disease, giving: 1) differential diagnoses with diagnostic likelihood; 2) a decision on the need for SLB; and 3) initial management. Diagnoses were stratified according to diagnostic likelihood bands described by Ryerson and colleagues.Measurements and Main Results: A total of 404 physicians evaluated the 60 cases (24,240 physician-patient evaluations). IPF was part of the differential diagnosis in 9,958/24,240 (41.1%) of all physician-patient evaluations. SLB was requested in 8.1%, 29.6%, and 48.4% of definite, provisional high-confidence and provisional low-confidence diagnoses of IPF, respectively. In 63.0% of provisional high-confidence IPF diagnoses, antifibrotic therapy was prescribed without requesting SLB. No significant mortality difference was observed between cases given a definite diagnosis of IPF (90-100% diagnostic likelihood) and cases given a provisional high-confidence IPF diagnosis (hazard ratio, 0.97; P = 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.04).Conclusions: Most respiratory physicians prescribe antifibrotic therapy without requesting an SLB if a provisional high-confidence diagnosis or "working diagnosis" of IPF can be made (likelihood ≥ 70%). SLB is recommended in only a minority of patients with suspected, but not definite, IPF.

The added value of comorbidities in predicting survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a multicentre observational study.

BACKGROUND: The gender-age-physiology (GAP) model was developed to predict the risk of death. Comorbidities are common in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and may impact on survival. We evaluated the ability of comorbidities to improve prediction of survival in IPF patients beyond the variables included in the GAP model. METHODS: We developed a prediction model named TORVAN using data from two independent cohorts. Continuous and point-score prediction models were developed with estimation of full and sparse versions of both. Model discrimination was assessed using the C-index and calibrated by comparing predicted and observed cumulative mortality at 1-5 years. RESULTS: Discrimination was similar for the sparse continuous model in the derivation and validation cohorts (C-index 71.0 versus 70.0, respectively), and significantly improved the performance of the GAP model in the validation cohort (increase in C-index of 3.8, p=0.001). In contrast, the sparse point-score model did not perform as well in the validation cohort (C-index 72.5 in the derivation cohort versus 68.1 in the validation cohort), but still significantly improved upon the performance of the GAP model (C-index increased by 2.5, p=0.037). CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion of comorbidities in TORVAN models significantly improved the discriminative performance in prediction of risk of death compared to GAP.

Telomere length and genetic variant associations with interstitial lung disease progression and survival.

Leukocyte telomere length (LTL), MUC5B rs35705950 and TOLLIP rs5743890 have been associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).In this observational cohort study, we assessed the associations between these genomic markers and outcomes of survival and rate of disease progression in patients with interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features (IPAF, n=250) and connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease (CTD-ILD, n=248). IPF (n=499) was used as a comparator.The LTL of IPAF and CTD-ILD patients (mean age-adjusted log-transformed T/S of -0.05±0.29 and -0.04±0.25, respectively) is longer than that of IPF patients (-0.17±0.32). For IPAF patients, LTL <10th percentile is associated with faster lung function decline compared to LTL ≥10th percentile (-6.43% per year versus -0.86% per year; p<0.0001) and worse transplant-free survival (hazard ratio 2.97, 95% CI 1.70-5.20; p=0.00014). The MUC5B rs35705950 minor allele frequency (MAF) is greater for IPAF patients (23.2, 95% CI 18.8-28.2; p<0.0001) than controls and is associated with worse transplant-free IPAF survival (hazard ratio 1.92, 95% CI 1.18-3.13; p=0.0091). Rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-associated ILD (RA-ILD) has a shorter LTL than non-RA CTD-ILD (-0.14±0.27 versus -0.01±0.23; p=0.00055) and higher MUC5B MAF (34.6, 95% CI 24.4-46.3 versus 14.1, 95% CI 9.8-20.0; p=0.00025). Neither LTL nor MUC5B are associated with transplant-free CTD-ILD survival.LTL and MUC5B MAF have different associations with lung function progression and survival for IPAF and CTD-ILD.

Significance of bronchiolocentric fibrosis in patients with histopathological usual interstitial pneumonia.

AIMS: To evaluate the clinical significance of bronchiolocentric fibrosis (BCF) in patients with a histopathological pattern of usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP). METHODS AND RESULTS: Two hundred and fifty-two patients with pathological UIP pattern were identified. Two hundred and fifteen of these patients (215 of 252) had the multidisciplinary diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Prospectively defined clinical, radiological and pathological features (including BCF) were recorded, and peripheral blood MUC5B genotype and telomere length were measured. BCF was observed in 38% (96 of 252) of all patients and 33% (72 of 215) of IPF patients; its presence was associated with a non-IPF diagnosis on multivariate analysis (odds ratio = 3.71, 95% confidence interval = 1.68-8.19). BCF was not significantly associated with environmental exposures, gastroesophageal reflux, cigarette smoking or radiological patterns. There was no significant association of BCF with MUC5B genotype or telomere length. BCF has no significant impact on survival time. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients with BCF and a histopathological pattern of UIP have IPF. However, this combined fibrotic pattern is associated with a non-IPF multidisciplinary diagnosis, with approximately one-quarter of these patients being diagnosed as chronic hypersensitivity pneumonia or unclassifiable interstitial fibrosis. The presence of BCF in these patients is not significantly associated with presumed clinical risk factors for bronchiolocentric involvement, radiological findings, MUC5B genotype, telomere length or survival time.

Identification of Diagnostic Criteria for Chronic Hypersensitivity Pneumonitis: An International Modified Delphi Survey.

RATIONALE: Current diagnosis of chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (cHP) involves considering a combination of clinical, radiological, and pathological information in multidisciplinary team discussions. However, this approach is highly variable with poor agreement between centers. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify diagnostic criteria for cHP that reach consensus among international experts. METHODS: A 3-round modified Delphi survey was conducted between April and August 2017. Forty-five experts in interstitial lung disease from 14 countries participated in the online survey. Diagnostic items included in round 1 were generated using expert interviews and literature review. During rounds 1 and 2, experts rated the importance of each diagnostic item on a 5-point Likert scale. The a priori threshold of consensus was ≥ 75% of experts rating a diagnostic item as very important or important. In the third round, experts graded the items that met consensus as important and provided their level of diagnostic confidence for a series of clinical scenarios. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Consensus was achieved on 18 of the 40 diagnostic items. Among these, experts gave the highest level of importance to the identification of a causative antigen, time relation between exposure and disease, mosaic attenuation on chest imaging, and poorly formed non-necrotizing granulomas on pathology. In clinical scenarios, the diagnostic confidence of experts in cHP was heightened by the presence of these diagnostic items. CONCLUSION: This consensus-based approach for the diagnosis of cHP represents a first step towards the development of international guidelines for the diagnosis of cHP.

Pirfenidone Reduces Respiratory-related Hospitalizations in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

RATIONALE: Respiratory-related hospitalizations of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) are more frequent than those for acute IPF exacerbations and are associated with poor outcomes. OBJECTIVES: To compare the risk of nonelective hospitalization by type (all-cause, respiratory related, and non-respiratory related) and death after hospitalization with use of pirfenidone versus placebo over 52 weeks using data derived from three phase III IPF clinical trials. METHODS: Individual patient data was pooled from three phase III randomized, placebo-controlled studies of pirfenidone for IPF (the two CAPACITY [Clinical Studies Assessing Pirfenidone in IPF: Research of Efficacy and Safety Outcomes] trials and the ASCEND [Assessment of Pirfenidone to Confirm Efficacy and Safety in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis] trial), including all patients randomized to pirfenidone 2,403 mg/d (n = 623) or placebo (n = 624). The risk of hospitalization over 52 weeks was compared using standard time-to-event methods. Among those hospitalized, the risk of death after hospitalization was compared with adjustment for treatment group propensity. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 1,247 patients (692 from the CAPACITY trials and 555 from the ASCEND trial) were included in the pooled analysis. Pirfenidone was associated with lower risk of respiratory-related hospitalization than placebo (7% vs. 12%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.77; P = 0.001), but all-cause (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.70-1.19; P = 0.528) or non-respiratory-related hospitalization (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.92-1.88; P = 0.145) was not. Among those hospitalized for any reason, treatment with pirfenidone was associated with lower risk of death after hospitalization up to 52 weeks after randomization, but this association was no longer significant with longer follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In a pooled analysis of three phase III IPF clinical trials, patients receiving pirfenidone had a lower risk of nonelective respiratory-related hospitalization over the course of 1 year. The effect of pirfenidone on death after hospitalization is uncertain.

The use of pretest probability increases the value of high-resolution CT in diagnosing usual interstitial pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have suggested that non-definitive patterns on high-resolution CT (HRCT) scan provide sufficient diagnostic specificity to forgo surgical lung biopsy in the diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The objective of this study was to determine test characteristics of non-definitive HRCT patterns for identifying histopathological usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP). METHODS: Patients with biopsy-proven interstitial lung disease (ILD) and non-definitive HRCT scans were identified from two academic ILD centres. Test characteristics for HRCT patterns as predictors of UIP on surgical lung biopsy were derived and validated in independent cohorts. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, 64/385 (17%) had possible UIP pattern on HRCT; 321/385 (83%) had inconsistent with UIP pattern. 113/385 (29%) patients had histopathological UIP pattern in the derivation cohort. Possible UIP pattern had a specificity of 91.2% (95% CI 87.2% to 94.3%) and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 62.5% (95% CI 49.5% to 74.3%) for UIP pattern on surgical lung biopsy. The addition of age, sex and total traction bronchiectasis score improved the PPV. Inconsistent with UIP pattern demonstrated poor PPV (22.7%, 95% CI 18.3% to 27.7%). HRCT pattern specificity was nearly identical in the validation cohort (92.7%, 95% CI 82.4% to 98.0%). The substantially higher prevalence of UIP pattern in the validation cohort improved the PPV of HRCT patterns. CONCLUSIONS: A possible UIP pattern on HRCT has high specificity for UIP on surgical lung biopsy, but PPV is highly dependent on underlying prevalence. Adding clinical and radiographic features to possible UIP pattern on HRCT may provide sufficient probability of histopathological UIP across prevalence ranges to change clinical decision-making.

Diagnostic accuracy of a clinical diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: an international case-cohort study.

We conducted an international study of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) diagnosis among a large group of physicians and compared their diagnostic performance to a panel of IPF experts.A total of 1141 respiratory physicians and 34 IPF experts participated. Participants evaluated 60 cases of interstitial lung disease (ILD) without interdisciplinary consultation. Diagnostic agreement was measured using the weighted kappa coefficient (κw). Prognostic discrimination between IPF and other ILDs was used to validate diagnostic accuracy for first-choice diagnoses of IPF and were compared using the C-index.A total of 404 physicians completed the study. Agreement for IPF diagnosis was higher among expert physicians (κw=0.65, IQR 0.53-0.72, p<0.0001) than academic physicians (κw=0.56, IQR 0.45-0.65, p<0.0001) or physicians with access to multidisciplinary team (MDT) meetings (κw=0.54, IQR 0.45-0.64, p<0.0001). The prognostic accuracy of academic physicians with >20 years of experience (C-index=0.72, IQR 0.0-0.73, p=0.229) and non-university hospital physicians with more than 20 years of experience, attending weekly MDT meetings (C-index=0.72, IQR 0.70-0.72, p=0.052), did not differ significantly (p=0.229 and p=0.052 respectively) from the expert panel (C-index=0.74 IQR 0.72-0.75).Experienced respiratory physicians at university-based institutions diagnose IPF with similar prognostic accuracy to IPF experts. Regular MDT meeting attendance improves the prognostic accuracy of experienced non-university practitioners to levels achieved by IPF experts.

Predictors of Mortality Poorly Predict Common Measures of Disease Progression in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

RATIONALE: Mortality prediction is well studied in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but little is known about predictors of premortality disease progression. Identification of patients at risk for disease progression would be useful for clinical decision-making and designing clinical trials. OBJECTIVES: To develop prediction models for disease progression in IPF. METHODS: In a large clinical trial cohort of patients with IPF (n = 1,113), we comprehensively screened multivariate models of candidate baseline and past-change predictors for disease progression defined by 48-week worsening of FVC, dyspnea (University of California, San Diego Shortness of Breath Questionnaire [UCSD SOBQ]), 6-minute-walk distance (6MWD), and occurrence of respiratory hospitalization, or death. Progression outcomes were modeled as appropriate, by slope change using linear regression models and time to binary outcomes using Cox proportional hazards models. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The overall cohort experienced considerable disease progression. Top-performing prediction models did not meaningfully predict most measures of disease progression. For example, prediction modeling explained less than or equal to 1% of the observed variation in 48-week slope change in FVC, UCSD SOBQ, and 6MWD. Models performed better for binary measures of time to disease progression but were still largely inaccurate (cross-validated C statistic ≤0.63 for ≥10% decline in FVC or death, ≤0.68 for ≥20-U increase in UCSD SOBQ or death, ≤0.70 for ≥100 m decline in 6MWD or death). Models for time to respiratory hospitalization or death (C statistic ≤0.77) or death alone (C statistic ≤0.81) demonstrated acceptable discriminative performance. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical prediction models poorly predicted physiologic and functional disease progression in IPF. This is in contrast to respiratory hospitalization and mortality prediction.

A diagnostic model for chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis.

The objective of this study was to develop a diagnostic model that allows for a highly specific diagnosis of chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis using clinical and radiological variables alone. Chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis and other interstitial lung disease cases were retrospectively identified from a longitudinal database. High-resolution CT scans were blindly scored for radiographic features (eg, ground-glass opacity, mosaic perfusion) as well as the radiologist's diagnostic impression. Candidate models were developed then evaluated using clinical and radiographic variables and assessed by the cross-validated C-statistic. Forty-four chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis and eighty other interstitial lung disease cases were identified. Two models were selected based on their statistical performance, clinical applicability and face validity. Key model variables included age, down feather and/or bird exposure, radiographic presence of ground-glass opacity and mosaic perfusion and moderate or high confidence in the radiographic impression of chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis. Models were internally validated with good performance, and cut-off values were established that resulted in high specificity for a diagnosis of chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis.

Models of disease behavior in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a diffuse parenchymal lung disease of unknown cause. The natural history of disease can vary considerably, making it difficult to predict the clinical trajectory for an individual patient. Accurate prognostication is desirable for clinical management as well as for cohort enrichment in clinical trials of therapeutics. Clinical and biomarker models of disease behavior have been developed to improve prognostication in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, with moderate predictive capabilities. Integrated prediction models that combine both clinical and biomarker variables will improve prognostication for patients and improved cohort enrichment strategies for clinical trials. This goal may be best achieved through collaborative patient registries with prospectively collected biological samples that allow for characterization of disease behavior in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Unified baseline and longitudinal mortality prediction in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) model is a validated, baseline-risk prediction model for mortality in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Longitudinal variables have been shown to contribute to risk prediction in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and may improve the predictive performance of the baseline GAP model. Our aims were to further validate the GAP model and evaluate whether the addition of longitudinal variables improves its predictive performance. The study population was derived from a large clinical trials cohort of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (n=1109). Model performance was determined by improvement in the C-statistic, net reclassification improvement, clinical net reclassification improvement, and a goodness-of-fit test. The GAP model had good discriminative performance with a C-statistic of 0.757 (95% CI 0.750-0.764). However, the original GAP model tended to overestimate risk in this cohort. A novel, easy to use model, consisting of the original GAP predictors plus history of respiratory hospitalisation and 24-week change in forced vital capacity (the longitudinal GAP model) improved model performance with a C-statistic of 0.785 (95% CI 0.780-0.790), net reclassification improvement of 8.5%, clinical net reclassification improvement of 25%, and a goodness-of-fit test of 0.929. The Longitudinal GAP model, along with the original GAP model, may unify baseline and longitudinal mortality risk prediction in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.