A Statistical Prediction Model for Survival After Kidney Transplantation from Deceased Donors.

BACKGROUND In an environment of limited kidney donation resources, patient recovery and survival after kidney transplantation (KT) are highly important. We used pre-operative data of kidney recipients to build a statistical model for predicting survivability after kidney transplantation. MATERIAL AND METHODS A dataset was constructed from a pool of patients who received a first KT in our hospital. For allogeneic transplantation, all donated kidneys were collected from deceased donors. Logistic regression analysis was used to change continuous variables into dichotomous ones through the creation of appropriate cut-off values. A regression model based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was used for dimensionality reduction, feature selection, and survivability prediction. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate the performance and clinical impact of the proposed model. Finally, a 10-fold cross-validation scheme was implemented to verify the model robustness. RESULTS We identified 22 potential variables from which 30 features were selected as survivability predictors. The model established based on the LASSO regression algorithm had shown discrimination with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.690 (95% confidence interval: 0.557-0.823) and good calibration result. DCA demonstrated clinical applicability of the prognostic model when the intervention progressed to the possibility threshold of 2%. An average AUC value of 0.691 was obtained on the validation data. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that the proposed model can predict the mortality risk for patients after kidney transplants and could help kidney specialists choose kidney recipients with better prognosis.

Genetic polymorphisms in metabolic enzymes and transporters have no impact on mycophenolic acid pharmacokinetics in adult kidney transplant patients co-treated with tacrolimus: A population analysis.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: Mycophenolate mofetil, an ester prodrug of mycophenolic acid (MPA), is widely used to prevent graft rejection after kidney transplantation. The pharmacokinetic (PK) of MPA has been extensively studied, which revealed a high degree of variability. An integrated population PK (PopPK) model of MPA and its main metabolite mycophenolic acid glucuronide (MPAG) was developed using the adult patients who underwent kidney transplant and were administered oral mycophenolate mofetil combined with tacrolimus. METHODS: In total, 917 MPA and 740 MPAG concentrations in191 adult patients were analysed via nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. The concentration-time data were adequately described using a chain compartment model, including central and peripheral compartments for MPA and a central compartment for MPAG. Stepwise forward inclusion and backward elimination procedures were used to investigate the effects of genetic polymorphisms, including in UGT1A8, UGT1A9, UGT2B7, ABCB1, ABCC2, ABCG2, SLCO1B1, SLCO1B3, and HNF1α. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: These genetic polymorphisms in metabolic enzymes and transporters have no obvious impact on the PK of MPA in adult patients who underwent kidney transplant and were co-treated with tacrolimus. The post-transplant time, serum albumin, and creatinine clearance were identified as significant covariates affecting the PK of MPA and MPAG, which should be considered in the clinical use of mycophenolate mofetil. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: We established a PopPK model of MPA and MPAG in Chinese adult patients who underwent kidney transplant and were co-treated with tacrolimus. Genetic polymorphisms in metabolic enzymes and transporters showed no obvious impact on MMF PK. A model-informed dosing strategy was proposed by the established model, and MMF dose adjustment should be based on ALB levels and the post-transplantation time.