A research and development roadmap to support applications of the enhanced BIOMASS methodology.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing enhancements of methods for modelling the biosphere in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. This has resulted in the enhanced BIOMASS methodology that is described elsewhere in this special issue. To a large degree, the enhancements to the BIOMASS methodology arose from experience gained in applying the original methodology, both in the context of other international projects and in assessments of existing or proposed disposal facilities for solid radioactive wastes. Here, this experience is used, together with information on the status of solid radioactive waste disposal programmes worldwide, to identify opportunities for applying the enhanced methodology and for learning from those applications. This provides a basis for identifying research and development to support application of the enhanced methodology in a variety of environmental settings. These research and development requirements include aspects related to climate change under a variety of forcing scenarios, landform development in climatic regimes ranging from cold, polar to arid, tropical, modelling of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in surface-water catchments where both fractured rock and porous sediments are present, and studies of the transport of key radioisotopes of elements central to major biogeochemical cycles, such as those of carbon, chlorine, sulphur and iodine. In addition, some remarks are made on aspects of the application of the enhanced methodology that could imply review and updating of regulations and regulatory guidance, e.g. in relation to the definition of representative persons or groups to be considered in assessments and in respect of approaches to the assessment of radiological impacts on non-human biota. Furthermore, consideration is given as to how the scientific and technical experience that has been gained and methods that have been developed in the context of solid radioactive disposal facilities could support management of contaminated sites and legacy facilities that are likely to require long-term management and stewardship.

Climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessment of solid radioactive waste disposal: Results of an initiative of the IAEA.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. The work has been supported by results of parallel on-going research that has been published in a variety of reports and peer reviewed journal articles. The project is due to be described in detail in a forthcoming IAEA report. Noting the multi-disciplinary nature of post-closure safety assessments, here, an overview of the work is given to provide researchers in the broader fields of radioecology and radiological safety assessment with a review of the work that has been undertaken. It is hoped that such dissemination will support and promote integrated understanding and coherent treatment of climate change and landscape development within an overall assessment process. The key activities undertaken in the project were: identification of the key processes that drive environmental change (mainly those associated with climate and climate change), and description of how a relevant future may develop on a global scale; development of a methodology for characterising environmental change that is valid on a global scale, showing how modelled global changes in climate can be downscaled to provide information that may be needed for characterising environmental change in site-specific assessments, and illustrating different aspects of the methodology in a number of case studies that show the evolution of site characteristics and the implications for the dose assessment models. Overall, the study has shown that quantitative climate and landscape modelling has now developed to the stage that it can be used to define an envelope of climate and landscape change scenarios at specific sites and under specific greenhouse-gas emissions assumptions that is suitable for use in quantitative post-closure performance assessments. These scenarios are not predictions of the future, but are projections based on a well-established understanding of the important processes involved and their impacts on different types of landscape. Such projections support the understanding of, and selection of, plausible ranges of scenarios for use in post-closure safety assessments.

Influence of climate on landscape characteristics in safety assessments of repositories for radioactive wastes.

In safety assessments of repositories for radioactive wastes, large spatial and temporal scales have to be considered when developing an approach to risk calculations. A wide range of different types of information may be required. Local to the site of interest, temperature and precipitation data may be used to determine the erosional regime (which may also be conditioned by the vegetation characteristics adopted, based both on climatic and other considerations). However, geomorphological changes may be governed by regional rather than local considerations, e.g. alteration of river base levels, river capture and drainage network reorganisation, or the progression of an ice sheet or valley glacier across the site. The regional climate is in turn governed by the global climate. In this work, a commentary is presented on the types of climate models that can be used to develop projections of climate change for use in post-closure radiological impact assessments of geological repositories for radioactive wastes. These models include both Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity. The relevant outputs available from these models are identified and consideration is given to how these outputs may be used to inform projections of landscape development. Issues of spatial and temporal downscaling of climate model outputs to meet the requirements of local-scale landscape development modelling are also addressed. An example is given of how climate change and landscape development influence the radiological impact of radionuclides potentially released from the deep geological disposal facility for spent nuclear fuel that SKB (the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company) proposes to construct at Forsmark, Sweden.