Improving 1-Year Mortality Following Intensive Care Unit Admission in Adults with HIV: A 20-Year Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite widespread use of combination antiretroviral therapy, people with HIV (PWH) continue to have an increased risk of admission to and mortality in the intensive care unit (ICU). Mortality risk after hospital discharge is not well described. Using retrospective data on adult PWH (≥18 years) admitted to ICU from 2000-2019 in an HIV-referral centre, we describe trends in 1-year mortality after ICU admission. METHODS: One-year mortality was calculated from index ICU admission to date of death; with follow-up right-censored at day 365 for people remaining alive at 1 year, or day 7 after ICU discharge if lost-to-follow-up after hospital discharge. Cox regression was used to describe the association with calendar year before and after adjustment for patient characteristics (age, sex, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II [APACHE II] score, CD4+ T-cell count, and recent HIV diagnosis) at ICU admission. Analyses were additionally restricted to those discharged alive from ICU using a left-truncated design, with further adjustment for respiratory failure at ICU admission in these analyses. RESULTS: Two hundred and twenty-one PWH were admitted to ICU (72% male, median [interquartile range] age 45 [38-53] years) of whom 108 died within 1-year (cumulative 1-year survival: 50%). Overall, the hazard of 1-year mortality was decreased by 10% per year (crude hazard ratio (HR): 0.90 (95% confidence interval: 0.87-0.93)); the association was reduced to 7% per year (adjusted HR: 0.93 (0.89-0.98)) after adjustment. Conclusions were similar among the subset of 136 patients discharged alive (unadjusted: 0.91 (0.84-0.98); adjusted 0.92 (0.84, 1.02)). CONCLUSIONS: Between 2000 and 2019, 1-year mortality after ICU admission declined at this ICU. Our findings highlight the need for multi-centre studies and the importance of continued engagement in care after hospital discharge among PWH.

Forgiveness Is the Attribute of the Strong: Nonadherence and Regimen Shortening in Drug-sensitive Tuberculosis.

Rationale: "Forgiveness" charts the ability of a drug or regimen to withstand nonadherence without negative clinical consequences. Objectives: We aimed to determine the influence of regimen length, regimen drugs, and dosing, and when during treatment nonadherence occurs on the forgiveness of antituberculosis regimens. Methods: Using data from three randomized controlled trials comparing experimental 4-month regimens for drug-sensitive tuberculosis with the standard 6-month regimen, we used generalized linear models to examine how the risk of a negative composite outcome changed as dose-taking decreased. The percentage of doses taken and the absolute number of doses missed were calculated during the intensive and continuation phases of treatment, and overall. A mediation analysis was undertaken to determine how much the association between intensive phase dose-taking and the negative composite outcome was mediated through continuation phase dose-taking. Measurements and Main Results: Forgiveness of the 4- and 6-month regimens did not differ for any treatment period. Importantly, 4-month regimens were no less forgiving of small numbers of absolute missed doses than the 6-month regimen (e.g., for 3-7 missed doses vs. no missed doses [baseline], 6-month regimen adjusted risk ratio 1.65 [95% confidence interval, 0.80-3.41] and 4-month regimens 1.80 [1.33-2.45]). No 4-month regimen was conclusively more forgiving than another. We found evidence of mediation by continuation phase dose-taking on the intensive phase dose-taking and negative composite outcome relationship. Conclusions: With the current appetite for, and progress toward, shorter drug-sensitive tuberculosis regimens worldwide, we offer reassurance that shorter regimens are not necessarily less forgiving of nonadherence. Given the importance of continuation phase adherence, patient support during this period should not be neglected.

Comparative assessment of viral dynamic models for SARS-CoV-2 for pharmacodynamic assessment in early treatment trials.

Pharmacometric analyses of time series viral load data may detect drug effects with greater power than approaches using single time points. Because SARS-CoV-2 viral load rapidly rises and then falls, viral dynamic models have been used. We compared different modelling approaches when analysing Phase II-type viral dynamic data. Using two SARS-CoV-2 datasets of viral load starting within 7 days of symptoms, we fitted the slope-intercept exponential decay (SI), reduced target cell limited (rTCL), target cell limited (TCL) and TCL with eclipse phase (TCLE) models using nlmixr. Model performance was assessed via Bayesian information criterion (BIC), visual predictive checks (VPCs), goodness-of-fit plots, and parameter precision. The most complex (TCLE) model had the highest BIC for both datasets. The estimated viral decline rate was similar for all models except the TCL model for dataset A with a higher rate (median [range] day-1 : dataset A; 0.63 [0.56-1.84]; dataset B: 0.81 [0.74-0.85]). Our findings suggest simple models should be considered during pharmacodynamic model development.

'Long-COVID': a cross-sectional study of persisting symptoms, biomarker and imaging abnormalities following hospitalisation for COVID-19.

Large numbers of people are being discharged from hospital following COVID-19 without assessment of recovery. In 384 patients (mean age 59.9 years; 62% male) followed a median 54 days post discharge, 53% reported persistent breathlessness, 34% cough and 69% fatigue. 14.6% had depression. In those discharged with elevated biomarkers, 30.1% and 9.5% had persistently elevated d-dimer and C reactive protein, respectively. 38% of chest radiographs remained abnormal with 9% deteriorating. Systematic follow-up after hospitalisation with COVID-19 identifies the trajectory of physical and psychological symptom burden, recovery of blood biomarkers and imaging which could be used to inform the need for rehabilitation and/or further investigation.

Latent tuberculosis infection screening and treatment in HIV: insights from evaluation of UK practice.

Latent TB infection (LTBI) screening and treatment in HIV-positive individuals in the UK is advocated by the British HIV Association (BHIVA) and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), although each recommends differing strategies. We undertook an evaluation of UK practice, relating the responses to the local HIV/TB disease burden. 162 of 188 (86%) UK geographical areas responded; only 93/162 (57.4%) offer LTBI testing with considerable heterogeneity in practice, and no difference in HIV/TB burden between areas offering testing and those who do not. Only 33/93 (35.5%) and 6/93 (6.5%) reported full compliance with BHIVA and NICE guidance respectively. A uniform national guideline is required.

'"Why me, why now?" Using clinical immunology and epidemiology to explain who gets nontuberculous mycobacterial infection.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) disease is rising. An understanding of known risk factors for disease sheds light on the immunological and physical barriers to infection, and how and why they may be overcome. This review focuses on human NTM infection, supported by experimental and in vitro data of relevance to the practising clinician who seeks to understand why their patient has NTM infection and how to further investigate. DISCUSSION: First, the underlying immune response to NTM disease is examined. Important insights regarding NTM disease susceptibility come from nature's own knockouts, the primary immune deficiency disorders. We summarise the current knowledge surrounding interferon-gamma (IFNγ)-interleukin-12 (IL-12) axis abnormalities, followed by a review of phagocytic defects, T cell lymphopenia and rarer genetic conditions known to predispose to NTM disease. We discuss how these define key immune pathways involved in the host response to NTM. Iatrogenic immunosuppression is also important, and we evaluate the impact of novel biological therapies, as well as bone marrow transplant and chemotherapy for solid organ malignancy, on the epidemiology and presentation of NTM disease, and discuss the host defence dynamics thus revealed. NTM infection and disease in the context of other chronic illnesses including HIV and malnutrition is reviewed. The role of physical barriers to infection is explored. We describe how their compromise through different mechanisms including cystic fibrosis, bronchiectasis and smoking-related lung disease can result in pulmonary NTM colonisation or infection. We also summarise further associations with host factors including body habitus and age. We use the presented data to develop an over-arching model that describes human host defences against NTM infection, where they may fail, and how this framework can be applied to investigation in routine clinical practice.

World TB Day 2016: an interview with leading experts in tuberculosis research.

In this interview, we talk to leading tuberculosis (TB) experts from University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine about the current challenges in TB research. The video of this interview is available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75Die7MQBec&feature=youtu.be . The video can also be downloaded via Additional file 1.

Impact of prophylactic and 'rescue pack' antibiotics on the airway microbiome in chronic lung disease.

The management of many chronic lung diseases involves multiple antibiotic prescriptions either to treat acute exacerbations or as prophylactic therapy to reduce the frequency of exacerbations and improve patients' quality of life. AIM: To investigate the effects of antibiotics on the homeostasis of bacterial communities in the airways, and how this may contribute to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) among respiratory pathogens and microbiota. METHODS: Within an observational cohort study, sputum was collected from 84 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and/or bronchiectasis at stable state: 47 were receiving antibiotic prophylaxis therapy. V3-V4 16S-rRNA sequencing on Illumina MiSeq, quantitative PCR for typical respiratory pathogens, bacteriology cultures and antimicrobial susceptibility testing of sputum isolates, resistome analysis on a subset of 17 sputum samples using MinION metagenomics sequencing were performed. FINDING: The phylogenetic α-diversity and the total bacterial density in sputum were significantly lower in patients receiving prophylactic antibiotics (p=0.014 and 0.029, respectively). Antibiotic prophylaxis was associated with significantly lower relative abundance of respiratory pathogens such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Moraxella catarrhalis and members of family Enterobacteriaceae in the airway microbiome, but not Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae. No major definite directional shifts in the microbiota composition were identified with prophylactic antibiotic use at the cohort level. Surveillance of AMR and resistome analysis revealed a high frequency of resistance to macrolide and tetracycline in the cohort. AMR expressed by pathogenic bacterial isolates was associated with antibiotics prescribed as 'rescue packs' for prompt initiation of self-treatment of exacerbations (Spearman's rho=0.408, p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic prophylactic therapy suppresses recognised pathogenic bacteria in the sputum of patients with chronic lung disease. The use of antibiotic rescue packs may be driving AMR in this cohort rather than prophylactic antibiotics.

Changes in short-term (in-ICU and in-hospital) mortality following intensive care unit admission in adults living with HIV: 2000-2019.

OBJECTIVE: Limited data suggest intensive care unit (ICU) outcomes have improved in people with HIV (PWH). We describe trends in in-ICU/in-hospital mortality among PWH following admission to ICU in a single UK-based HIV referral centre, from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2019. METHODS: Modelling of associations between ICU admission and calendar year of admission was done using logistic regression with adjustment for age, sex, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, CD4 + T-cell count and diagnosis of HIV at/within the past 3 months. RESULTS: Among 221 PWH (71% male, median [interquartile range (IQR)] age 45 years [38-53]) admitted to ICU, median [IQR] APACHE II score and CD4 + T-cell count were 19 [14-25] and 122 cells/µl [30-297], respectively; HIV-1 viral load was ≤50 copies/ml in 46%. The most common ICU admission diagnosis was lower respiratory tract infection (30%). In-ICU and in-hospital, mortality were 29 and 38.5%, respectively. The odds of in-ICU mortality decreased over the 20-year period by 11% per year [odds ratio (OR): 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.84-0.94)] with in-hospital mortality decreasing by 14% per year [0.86 (0.82-0.91)]. After adjusting for patient demographics and clinical factors, both estimates were attenuated, however, the odds of in-hospital mortality continued to decline over time [in-ICU mortality: adjusted OR: 0.97 (0.90-1.05); in-hospital mortality: 0.90 (0.84-0.97)]. CONCLUSION: Short-term mortality of critically ill PWH admitted to ICU has continued to decline in the ART era. This may result from changing indications for ICU admission, advances in critical care and improvements in HIV-related immune status.

Cross-sectional study evaluating the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on Long COVID outcomes in UK hospital survivors.

OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 studies report on hospital admission outcomes across SARS-CoV-2 waves of infection but knowledge of the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the development of Long COVID in hospital survivors is limited. We sought to investigate Long COVID outcomes, aiming to compare outcomes in adult hospitalised survivors with known variants of concern during our first and second UK COVID-19 waves, prior to widespread vaccination. DESIGN: Prospective observational cross-sectional study. SETTING: Secondary care tertiary hospital in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: This study investigated Long COVID in 673 adults with laboratory-positive SARS-CoV-2 infection or clinically suspected COVID-19, 6 weeks after hospital discharge. We compared adults with wave 1 (wildtype variant, admitted from February to April 2020) and wave 2 patients (confirmed Alpha variant on viral sequencing (B.1.1.7), admitted from December 2020 to February 2021). OUTCOME MEASURES: Associations of Long COVID presence (one or more of 14 symptoms) and total number of Long COVID symptoms with SARS-CoV-2 variant were analysed using multiple logistic and Poisson regression, respectively. RESULTS: 322/400 (wave 1) and 248/273 (wave 2) patients completed follow-up. Predictors of increased total number of Long COVID symptoms included: pre-existing lung disease (adjusted count ratio (aCR)=1.26, 95% CI 1.07, 1.48) and more COVID-19 admission symptoms (aCR=1.07, 95% CI 1.02, 1.12). Weaker associations included increased length of inpatient stay (aCR=1.02, 95% CI 1.00, 1.03) and later review after discharge (aCR=1.00, 95% CI 1.00, 1.01). SARS-CoV-2 variant was not associated with Long COVID presence (OR=0.99, 95% CI 0.24, 4.20) or total number of symptoms (aCR=1.09, 95% CI 0.82, 1.44). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with chronic lung disease or greater COVID-19 admission symptoms have higher Long COVID risk. SARS-CoV-2 variant was not predictive of Long COVID though in wave 2 we identified fewer admission symptoms, improved clinical trajectory and outcomes. Addressing modifiable factors such as length of stay and timepoint of clinical review following discharge may enable clinicians to move from Long COVID risk stratification towards improving its outcome.

What's new in respiratory infections and tuberculosis 2008-2010.

Over the past few years there have been an increasing number of research articles published in Thorax on respiratory tract infections (including tuberculosis) affecting children and adults. Although these articles cover a wide variety of areas, several broad themes can be discerned. These include greater interest in viral respiratory infections (partially stimulated by the recent influenza A pandemic), improved characterisation of who is at risk of community-acquired pneumonia and mycobacterial infection, research into better diagnostics and attempts to develop new or improved scoring scales for a range of respiratory infection syndromes. There have also been a limited number of articles on how to manage patients with respiratory infection, including describing the efficacy of prevention by vaccination. Overall, there has been a discernible emphasis on transferring advances in clinical science to actual clinical practice, with several papers using molecular methodologies or measuring levels of cytokines or other potential biomarkers to improve diagnostic accuracy in patients with lung infection. There have also been manuscripts linking specific pathogen genotypes to infection phenotype, an area that is likely to be increasingly important in explaining some of the variations in severity between patients with respiratory infection. However, many questions remain on the optimum strategies for the management and prevention of pneumonia, bronchiectasis and tuberculosis, and there remains a strong need for further clinical research in order to make substantial improvements in the management of patients with lung infection.

The Blood Neutrophil Count After 1 Month of Treatment Predicts the Radiologic Severity of Lung Disease at Treatment End.

BACKGROUND: Lung disease after tuberculous confers significant morbidity. However, the determinants of persistent lung damage in TB are not well established. We investigated associations between TB-associated radiologic changes and sociodemographic factors, surrogates of bacillary burden, and blood inflammatory markers at initiation of therapy and after 1 month. RESEARCH QUESTION: What are the predictors of radiologic severity at the end of TB treatment for TB? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We collected data from patients treated for drug-sensitive pulmonary TB at our center over a 5.5-year period. We recorded age, sex, ethnicity, smoking status, symptom duration, sputum smear grade, time to culture positivity, and blood results (C-reactive protein and neutrophil count) at baseline and after 1 month of treatment. Chest radiographs obtained at baseline, 2 months, and end of treatment were assessed independently by two radiologists and scored using a validated system. Relationships between predictor variables and radiologic outcomes were assessed using linear or binary logistic regression. RESULTS: We assessed 154 individuals with a mean age of 37 years, 63% of whom were men. In a multivariate analysis, baseline radiologic severity correlated with sputum smear grade (P = 0.003) and neutrophil count (P < 0.001). At end of treatment, only the 1-month neutrophil count was associated significantly with overall radiologic severity in the multivariate analysis (r = 0.34; P = 0.003) and remained significant after controlling for baseline radiologic scores. The 1-month neutrophil count also was the only independent correlate of volume loss and pleural thickening at the end of treatment and was significantly higher in patients with persistent cavitation or effusion vs those without. INTERPRETATION: Persistent neutrophilic inflammation after 1 month of TB therapy is associated with poor radiologic outcome, suggesting a target for interventions to minimize lung disease after tuberculous.

Relational Dynamics of Treatment Behavior Among Individuals with Tuberculosis in High-Income Countries: A Scoping Review.

Although tuberculosis (TB) incidence has significantly declined in high-income, low-incidence (HILI) countries, challenges remain in managing TB in vulnerable populations who may struggle to stay on anti-TB treatment (ATT). Factors associated with non-adherence to ATT are well documented; however, adherence is often narrowly conceived as a fixed binary variable that places emphasis on individual agency and the act of taking medicines, rather than on the demands of being on treatment more broadly. Further, the mechanisms through which documented factors act upon the experience of being on treatment are poorly understood. Adopting a relational approach that emphasizes the embeddedness of individuals within dynamic social, structural, and health systems contexts, this scoping review aims to synthesize qualitative evidence on experiences of being on ATT and mechanisms through which socio-ecological factors influence adherence in HILI countries. Six electronic databases were searched for peer-reviewed literature published in English between January 1990 and May 2020. Additional studies were obtained by searching references of included studies. Narrative synthesis was used to analyze qualitative data extracted from included studies. Of 28 included studies, the majority (86%) reported on health systems factors, followed by personal characteristics (82%), structural influences (61%), social factors (57%), and treatment-related factors (50%). Included studies highlighted three points that underpin a relational approach to ATT behavior: 1) individual motivation and capacity to take ATT is dynamic and intertwined with, rather than separate from, social, health systems, and structural factors; 2) individuals' pre-existing experiences of health-seeking influence their views on treatment and their ability to commit to long-term regular medicine-taking; and 3) social, cultural, and political contexts play an important role in mediating how specific factors work to support or hinder ATT adherence behavior in different settings. Based on our analysis, we suggest that person-centered clinical management of tuberculosis should 1) acknowledge the ways in which ATT both disrupts and is managed within the everyday lives of individuals with TB; 2) appreciate that individuals' circumstances and the support and resources they can access may change over the course of treatment; and 3) display sensitivity towards context-specific social and cultural norms affecting individual and collective experiences of being on ATT.

"You have to change your whole life": A qualitative study of the dynamics of treatment adherence among adults with tuberculosis in the United Kingdom.

Maintaining adherence to treatment for tuberculosis (TB) is essential if the disease is to be eliminated. As part of formative research to develop an intervention to improve adherence, we documented the lived experiences of adults receiving anti-TB treatment (ATT) in three UK cities and examined how personal, social, and structural circumstances interacted to impact on individuals' adherence to treatment. Using a topic guide that explored social circumstances and experiences of TB care, we conducted in-depth interviews with 18 adults (six women) who were being or had been treated for TB (patients) and four adults (all women) who were caring for a friend, relative, or partner being treated for TB (caregivers). We analysed transcripts using an adapted framework method that classified factors affecting adherence as personal, social, structural, health systems, or treatment-related. Eleven of 18 patients were born outside the UK (in South, Central, and East Asia, and Eastern and Southern Africa); among the seven who were UK-born, four were Black, Asian, or Minority Ethnic and three were White British. TB and its treatment were often disruptive: in addition to debilitating symptoms and side effects of ATT, participants faced job insecurity, unstable housing, stigma, social isolation, worsening mental health, and damaged relationships. Those who had a strong support network, stable employment, a routine that could easily be adapted, a trusting relationship with their TB team, and clear understanding of the need for treatment reported finding it easier to adhere to ATT. Changes in circumstances sometimes had dramatic effects on an individual's ability to take ATT; participants described how the impact of certain acute events (e.g., the onset of side effects or fatigue, episodes of stigmatisation, loss of income) were amplified by their timing or through their interaction with other elements of the individual's life. We suggest that the dynamic and fluctuating nature of these factors necessitates comprehensive and regular review of needs and potential problems, conducted before and during ATT; this, coupled with supportive measures that consider (and seek to mitigate) the influence of social and structural factors, may help improve adherence.

All nonadherence is equal but is some more equal than others? Tuberculosis in the digital era.

Adherence to treatment for tuberculosis (TB) has been a concern for many decades, resulting in the World Health Organization's recommendation of the direct observation of treatment in the 1990s. Recent advances in digital adherence technologies (DATs) have renewed discussion on how to best address nonadherence, as well as offering important information on dose-by-dose adherence patterns and their variability between countries and settings. Previous studies have largely focussed on percentage thresholds to delineate sufficient adherence, but this is misleading and limited, given the complex and dynamic nature of adherence over the treatment course. Instead, we apply a standardised taxonomy - as adopted by the international adherence community - to dose-by-dose medication-taking data, which divides missed doses into 1) late/noninitiation (starting treatment later than expected/not starting), 2) discontinuation (ending treatment early), and 3) suboptimal implementation (intermittent missed doses). Using this taxonomy, we can consider the implications of different forms of nonadherence for intervention and regimen design. For example, can treatment regimens be adapted to increase the "forgiveness" of common patterns of suboptimal implementation to protect against treatment failure and the development of drug resistance? Is it reasonable to treat all missed doses of treatment as equally problematic and equally common when deploying DATs? Can DAT data be used to indicate the patients that need enhanced levels of support during their treatment course? Critically, we pinpoint key areas where knowledge regarding treatment adherence is sparse and impeding scientific progress.

Cost effectiveness of testing HIV infected individuals for TB in a low TB/HIV setting.

OBJECTIVES: Guidelines recommend routine testing for latent TB infection (LTBI) in people living with HIV. However there are few cost-effectiveness studies to justify this in contemporary high resource, low TB/HIV incidence settings. We sought to assess the uptake, yield and cost-effectiveness of testing for latent and active TB. METHODS: Adults attending an ambulatory HIV clinic in London, UK were prospectively recruited by stratified selection and tested for TB infection using symptom questionnaires, chest radiograph (CXR), tuberculin skin test (TST), T-Spot.TB and induced sputum. From this, 30 testing strategies were compared in a cost-effectiveness model including probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. RESULTS: 219 subjects were assessed; 95% were using antiretroviral therapy (ART). Smear negative, culture positive TB was present in 0.9% asymptomatic subjects, LTBI in 9%. Only strategies testing those from subSaharan Africa with a TST or interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) with or without CXR, or testing those from countries with a TB incidence of >40/100,000 with TST alone were cost-effective using a £30,000/QALY threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Cost-effectiveness analysis in an adult HIV cohort with high ART usage suggests there is limited benefit beyond routine testing for latent TB in people from high and possibly medium TB incidence settings.

Immune reconstitution and "unmasking" of tuberculosis during antiretroviral therapy.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the most common opportunistic disease in HIV-infected patients during the initial months of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and presents a great challenge to ART programs in resource-limited settings. The mechanisms underlying development of TB in this period are complex. Some cases may represent progression of undiagnosed subclinical disease present before starting ART, emphasizing the importance of careful screening strategies for TB. It has been suggested that progression in such cases is due to immune reconstitution disease-a phenomenon in which dysregulated restoration of pathogen-specific immune responses triggers the presentation of subclinical disease. However, whereas some cases have exaggerated or overtly inflammatory manifestations consistent with existing case definitions for IRD, many others do not. Moreover, since ART-induced immune recovery is a time-dependent process, active TB may develop as a consequence of persisting immunodeficiency. All these mechanisms are likely to be important, representing a spectrum of complex interactions between mycobacterial burden and changing host immune response. We propose that the potential range of effects of ART includes (1) shortening of the time for subclinical TB to become symptomatic (a phenomenon often referred to as "unmasking"), (2) increased rapidity of initial onset of TB symptoms, and (3) heightened intensity of clinical manifestations. We suggest that the term "ART-associated TB" be used to refer collectively to all cases of TB presenting during ART and that "immune reconstitution disease" be used to refer to the subset of ART-associated TB cases in which the effect on disease severity results in exaggerated and overtly inflammatory disease.

Biomarkers of treatment response in clinical trials of novel antituberculosis agents.

Global initiatives have been launched to develop improved tuberculosis chemotherapy. New drugs and potential treatment-shortening regimens require careful assessment in clinical trials, but existing markers of treatment outcome-clinical cure and relapse-require prolonged follow-up of patients. There is, therefore, a need to find alternative biomarkers or surrogate endpoints predictive of response. Effective treatment requires drugs with sterilising activity to produce clinical cure without relapse, and thus a useful biomarker for a drug under trial must predict the likelihood of relapse. We explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing biomarkers, which assess either host response or mycobacterial load. Change in mycobacterial burden is likely to be the best indicator of treatment outcome, but the optimum study techniques remain undefined. Finally, we propose methods to assess candidate markers, and how these candidate markers could be implemented in future clinical trials.