Association between trajectories of adherence to endocrine therapy and risk of treated breast cancer recurrence among US nonmetastatic breast cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND: Endocrine therapy is the mainstay treatment for breast cancer (BC) to reduce BC recurrence risk. During the first year of endocrine therapy use, nearly 30% of BC survivors are nonadherent, which may increase BC recurrence risk. This study is to examine the association between endocrine therapy adherence trajectories and BC recurrence risk in nonmetastatic BC survivors. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included Medicare beneficiaries in the United States (US) with incident nonmetastatic BC followed by endocrine therapy initiation in 2010-2019 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results linked Medicare data. We calculated monthly fill-based proportion of days covered in the first year of endocrine therapy. We applied group-based trajectory models to identify distinct endocrine therapy adherence patterns. After the end of the first-year endocrine therapy trajectory measurement period, we estimated the risk of time to first treated BC recurrence within 4 years using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: We identified 5 trajectories of adherence to endocrine therapy in BC Stages 0-I subgroup (n = 28,042) and in Stages II-III subgroup (n = 7781). A trajectory of discontinuation before 6 months accounted for 7.0% in Stages 0-I and 5.8% in Stages II-III subgroups, and this trajectory was associated with an increased treated BC recurrence risk compared to nearly perfect adherence (Stages 0-I: adjusted hazard [aHR] = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.46-2.33; Stages II-III: aHR = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.07-1.77). CONCLUSIONS: Nearly 7% of BC survivors who discontinued before completing 6 months of treatment was associated with an increased treated BC recurrence risk compared to those with nearly perfect adherence among Medicare nonmetastatic BC survivors.

Association between trajectories of prescription opioid use and risk of opioid use disorder and overdose among US nonmetastatic breast cancer survivors.

PURPOSE: To examine the association between prescription opioid use trajectories and risk of opioid use disorder (OUD) or overdose among nonmetastatic breast cancer survivors by treatment type. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included female nonmetastatic breast cancer survivors with at least 1 opioid prescription fill in 2010-2019 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results linked Medicare data. Opioid mean daily morphine milligram equivalents (MME) calculated within 1.5 years after initiating active breast cancer therapy. Group-based trajectory models identified distinct opioid use trajectory patterns. Risk of time to first OUD/overdose event within 1 year after the trajectory period was calculated for distinct trajectory groups using Cox proportional hazards models. Analyses were stratified by treatment type. RESULTS: Four opioid use trajectories were identified for each treatment group. For 38,030 survivors with systemic endocrine therapy, 3 trajectories were associated with increased OUD/overdose risk compared with early discontinuation: minimal dose (< 5 MME; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.73 [95% CI 1.43-2.09]), very low dose (5-25 MME; 2.67 [2.05-3.48]), and moderate dose (51-90 MME; 6.20 [4.69-8.19]). For 9477 survivors with adjuvant chemotherapy, low-dose opioid use was associated with higher OUD/overdose risk (aHR = 7.33 [95% CI 2.52-21.31]) compared with early discontinuation. For 3513 survivors with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, the differences in OUD/OD risks across the 4 trajectories were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Among Medicare nonmetastatic breast cancer survivors receiving systemic endocrine therapy or adjuvant chemotherapy, compared with early discontinuation, low-dose or moderate-dose opioid use were associated with six- to sevenfold higher OUD/overdose risk. Breast cancer survivors at high-risk of OUD/overdose may benefit from targeted interventions (e.g., pain clinic referral).

Identifying social determinants of health from clinical narratives: A study of performance, documentation ratio, and potential bias.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a natural language processing (NLP) package to extract social determinants of health (SDoH) from clinical narratives, examine the bias among race and gender groups, test the generalizability of extracting SDoH for different disease groups, and examine population-level extraction ratio. METHODS: We developed SDoH corpora using clinical notes identified at the University of Florida (UF) Health. We systematically compared 7 transformer-based large language models (LLMs) and developed an open-source package - SODA (i.e., SOcial DeterminAnts) to facilitate SDoH extraction from clinical narratives. We examined the performance and potential bias of SODA for different race and gender groups, tested the generalizability of SODA using two disease domains including cancer and opioid use, and explored strategies for improvement. We applied SODA to extract 19 categories of SDoH from the breast (n = 7,971), lung (n = 11,804), and colorectal cancer (n = 6,240) cohorts to assess patient-level extraction ratio and examine the differences among race and gender groups. RESULTS: We developed an SDoH corpus using 629 clinical notes of cancer patients with annotations of 13,193 SDoH concepts/attributes from 19 categories of SDoH, and another cross-disease validation corpus using 200 notes from opioid use patients with 4,342 SDoH concepts/attributes. We compared 7 transformer models and the GatorTron model achieved the best mean average strict/lenient F1 scores of 0.9122 and 0.9367 for SDoH concept extraction and 0.9584 and 0.9593 for linking attributes to SDoH concepts. There is a small performance gap (∼4%) between Males and Females, but a large performance gap (>16 %) among race groups. The performance dropped when we applied the cancer SDoH model to the opioid cohort; fine-tuning using a smaller opioid SDoH corpus improved the performance. The extraction ratio varied in the three cancer cohorts, in which 10 SDoH could be extracted from over 70 % of cancer patients, but 9 SDoH could be extracted from less than 70 % of cancer patients. Individuals from the White and Black groups have a higher extraction ratio than other minority race groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our SODA package achieved good performance in extracting 19 categories of SDoH from clinical narratives. The SODA package with pre-trained transformer models is available at https://github.com/uf-hobi-informatics-lab/SODA_Docker.

Trajectories of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Adherence Among Commercially Insured Individuals.

We used group-based trajectory models to identify four distinct trajectory patterns of adherence to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among 20,696 users. Only 44.5% were consistently PrEP adherent, with younger age, being female, or having substance use disorder or depression associated with early discontinuation. Public health efforts are needed to improve PrEP adherence.

Machine learning algorithms for predicting direct-acting antiviral treatment failure in chronic hepatitis C: An HCV-TARGET analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to develop and validate machine learning algorithms to predict direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment failure among patients with HCV infection. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We used HCV-TARGET registry data to identify HCV-infected adults receiving all-oral DAA treatment and having virologic outcome. Potential pretreatment predictors (n = 179) included sociodemographic, clinical characteristics, and virologic data. We applied multivariable logistic regression as well as elastic net, random forest, gradient boosting machine (GBM), and feedforward neural network machine learning algorithms to predict DAA treatment failure. Training (n = 4894) and validation (n = 1631) patient samples had similar sociodemographic and clinical characteristics (mean age, 57 years; 60% male; 66% White; 36% with cirrhosis). Of 6525 HCV-infected adults, 95.3% achieved sustained virologic response, whereas 4.7% experienced DAA treatment failure. In the validation sample, machine learning approaches performed similarly in predicting DAA treatment failure (C statistic [95% CI]: GBM, 0.69 [0.64-0.74]; random forest, 0.68 [0.63-0.73]; feedforward neural network, 0.66 [0.60-0.71]; elastic net, 0.64 [0.59-0.70]), and all four outperformed multivariable logistic regression (0.51 [0.46-0.57]). Using the Youden index to identify the balanced risk score threshold, GBM had 66.2% sensitivity and 65.1% specificity, and 12 individuals were needed to evaluate to identify 1 DAA treatment failure. Over 55% of patients with treatment failure were classified by the GBM in the top three risk decile subgroups (positive predictive value: 6%-14%). The top 10 GBM-identified predictors included albumin, liver enzymes (aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase), total bilirubin levels, sex, HCV viral loads, sodium level, HCC, platelet levels, and tobacco use. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning algorithms performed effectively for risk prediction and stratification of DAA treatment failure.

Disparities in Access to Hepatitis C Treatment Among Arizona Medicaid Beneficiaries With Chronic Hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: High costs of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have led to their restricted access for patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV). OBJECTIVE: The aim was to assess how HCV treatment access and predictors of HCV treatment changed in the post-DAA period compared with pre-DAA period. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using Arizona Medicaid data was conducted for patients with HCV to compare treatment initiation rates between pre-DAA (January 2008-October 2013) and post-DAA (November 2013-December 2018) periods. Multivariable logistic regression was used, controlling for demographic and clinical variables. RESULTS: Twenty-four thousand and ninety and 28,756 patients during the pre-DAA and post-DAA periods were identified. Overall, 12.6% were treated in the post-DAA period compared with 7.8% in the pre-DAA period ( P <0.001). The relative increase in the HCV treatment initiation rate from the pre-DAA to the post-DAA period was significant greater for Black beneficiaries compared with White beneficiaries ( P =0.002). Hispanic beneficiaries were less likely to be treated in the post-DAA period [adjusted odds ratios (aOR): 0.88; CI: 0.79-0.98] compared with White beneficiaries. Those with mental illness (aOR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.63-0.80) and substance use disorders (aOR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.58-0.68) were less likely to be treated in the post-DAA period. CONCLUSIONS: Although treatment initiation increased and disparities for Black beneficiaries compared with White beneficiaries attenuated in the post-DAA period, only 13% of Arizona Medicaid patients with HCV received DAA treatment. Disparities in DAA access remained among Hispanic patients and those with mental illness and substance use disorders.

Impact of Direct-acting Antivirals on Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Mortality Among Medicaid Beneficiaries With Hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVE: The effects of all-oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related and all-cause mortality were assessed among Medicaid beneficiaries with hepatitis C virus (HCV). SUBJECTS: This cohort study used 2013-2019 Arizona Medicaid data from beneficiaries with HCV aged 18-64 years. METHODS: Risks of HCC and liver-related and all-cause mortality were compared between patients with or without DAA treatment, stratified by liver disease severity, using inverse probability of treatment weighted multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: Of 29,289 patients, 13.3% received DAAs. Among patients with compensated cirrhosis (CC), DAA treatment was associated with a lower risk of HCC [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37-0.88] compared with untreated patients although this association was not statistically significant for patients without cirrhosis or with decompensated cirrhosis (DCC). Compared with untreated patients, DAA treatment was associated with decreased risk of liver-related mortality for patients without cirrhosis (aHR: 0.02; 95% CI: 0.004-0.11), with CC (aHR: 0.09; 95% CI: 0.06-0.13), or with DCC (aHR: 0.20; 95% CI: 0.14-0.27). Similarly, compared with untreated patients, DAA treatment was associated with lower all-cause mortality for patients without cirrhosis (aHR: 0.10; 95% CI: 0.08-0.14), with CC (aHR: 0.07; 95% CI: 0.05-0.10), or with DCC (aHR: 0.15; 95% CI: 0.11-0.20). CONCLUSIONS: Among Arizona Medicaid beneficiaries with HCV, DAA treatment was associated with decreased risk of HCC for patients with CC but not for patients without cirrhosis or with DCC. However, DAA treatment was associated with decreased risk of liver-related and all-cause mortality.

Trajectories of Oral Anticoagulation Adherence and Associated Clinical Outcomes During Long-Term Anticoagulation Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Venous Thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about anticoagulation medication nonadherence patterns impacting effectiveness and safety outcomes in clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: We identified adherence trajectories of extended therapy with direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) and warfarin after 6 months initial anticoagulant therapy among Medicare beneficiaries with venous thromboembolism (VTE). We further assessed the associated recurrent VTE and major bleeding risks. METHODS: Using group-based trajectory models, this retrospective cohort study identified distinct beneficiary subgroups with similar adherence patterns of extended-phase anticoagulant treatment (DOACs or warfarin) for patients with VTE who completed 6 months of initial anticoagulant treatment. We examined associations between adherence trajectories and risks of recurrent VTE and major bleeding using inverse probability treatment weighted Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Compared with no extended treatment, consistently high DOAC adherence was associated with decreased recurrent VTE risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.21-0.51) without increased major bleeding risk, and consistently high warfarin adherence was associated with decreased recurrent VTE risk (HR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.40-0.95) and increased major bleeding risk (HR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.12-2.41). Gradually declining adherence to DOACs (HR = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.07-3.03) or warfarin (HR = 2.34, 95% CI = 1.57-3.47) was associated with increased bleeding risk with no change in recurrent VTE risk. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: This real-world evidence suggests persistently adhering to extended DOAC therapy is associated with lower recurrent VTE risk without increasing major bleeding among Medicare beneficiaries with VTE. Persistently adhering to extended warfarin therapy was associated with lower recurrent VTE risk but higher major bleeding risk.

Association between first-line antidepressant use and risk of dementia in older adults: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies suggested that antidepressant use is associated with an increased risk of dementia compared to no use, which is subject to confounding by indication. We aimed to compare the dementia risk among older adults with depression receiving first-line antidepressants (i.e., SSRI/SNRI) versus psychotherapy, which is also considered the first-line therapy for depression. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted using the US Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 2010 to 2019. We included adults aged ≥ 50 years diagnosed with depression who initiated SSRI/SNRI or psychotherapy. We excluded patients with a dementia diagnosis before the first record of SSRI/SNRI use or psychotherapy. The exposure was the patient's receipt of SSRI/SNRI (identified from self-report questionnaires) or psychotherapy (identified from the Outpatient Visits or Office-Based Medical Provider Visits files). The outcome was a new diagnosis of dementia within 2 years (i.e., survey panel period) identified using ICD-9/ICD-10 codes from the Medical Conditions file. Using a multivariable logistic regression model, we reported adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We also conducted subgroup analyses by patient sex, age group, race/ethnicity, severity of depression, combined use of other non-SSRI/SNRI antidepressants, and presence of underlying cognitive impairment. RESULTS: Among 2,710 eligible patients (mean age = 61 ± 8, female = 69%, White = 84%), 89% used SSRIs/SNRIs, and 11% received psychotherapy. The SSRI/SNRI users had a higher crude incidence of dementia than the psychotherapy group (16.4% vs. 11.8%), with an aOR of 1.36 (95% CI = 1.06-1.74). Subgroup analyses yielded similar findings as the main analyses, except no significant association for patients who were aged < 65 years (1.23, 95% CI = 0.93-1.62), male (1.34, 95% CI = 0.95-1.90), Black (0.76, 95% CI = 0.48-1.19), had a higher PHQ-2 (1.39, 95% CI = 0.90-2.15), and had underlying cognitive impairment (1.06, 95% CI = 0.80-1.42). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggested that older adults with depression receiving SSRIs/SNRIs were associated with an increased dementia risk compared to those receiving psychotherapy.

Concurrent use of prescription gabapentinoids with opioids and risk for fall-related injury among older US Medicare beneficiaries with chronic noncancer pain: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Gabapentinoids are increasingly prescribed to manage chronic noncancer pain (CNCP) in older adults. When used concurrently with opioids, gabapentinoids may potentiate central nervous system (CNS) depression and increase the risks for fall. We aimed to investigate whether concurrent use of gabapentinoids with opioids compared with use of opioids alone is associated with an increased risk of fall-related injury among older adults with CNCP. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a population-based cohort study using a 5% national sample of Medicare beneficiaries in the United States between 2011 and 2018. Study sample consisted of fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries aged ≥65 years with CNCP diagnosis who initiated opioids. We identified concurrent users with gabapentinoids and opioids days' supply overlapping for ≥1 day and designated first day of concurrency as the index date. We created 2 cohorts based on whether concurrent users initiated gabapentinoids on the day of opioid initiation (Cohort 1) or after opioid initiation (Cohort 2). Each concurrent user was matched to up to 4 opioid-only users on opioid initiation date and index date using risk set sampling. We followed patients from index date to first fall-related injury event ascertained using a validated claims-based algorithm, treatment discontinuation or switching, death, Medicare disenrollment, hospitalization or nursing home admission, or end of study, whichever occurred first. In each cohort, we used propensity score (PS) weighted Cox models to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of fall-related injury, adjusting for year of the index date, sociodemographics, types of chronic pain, comorbidities, frailty, polypharmacy, healthcare utilization, use of nonopioid medications, and opioid use on and before the index date. We identified 6,733 concurrent users and 27,092 matched opioid-only users in Cohort 1 and 5,709 concurrent users and 22,388 matched opioid-only users in Cohort 2. The incidence rate of fall-related injury was 24.5 per 100 person-years during follow-up (median, 9 days; interquartile range [IQR], 5 to 18 days) in Cohort 1 and was 18.0 per 100 person-years during follow-up (median, 9 days; IQR, 4 to 22 days) in Cohort 2. Concurrent users had similar risk of fall-related injury as opioid-only users in Cohort 1(aHR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.34, p = 0.874), but had higher risk for fall-related injury than opioid-only users in Cohort 2 (aHR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.44, p = 0.005). Limitations of this study included confounding due to unmeasured factors, unavailable information on gabapentinoids' indication, potential misclassification, and limited generalizability beyond older adults insured by Medicare FFS program. CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of older Medicare beneficiaries with CNCP, initiating gabapentinoids and opioids simultaneously compared with initiating opioids only was not significantly associated with risk for fall-related injury. However, addition of gabapentinoids to an existing opioid regimen was associated with increased risks for fall. Mechanisms for the observed excess risk, whether pharmacological or because of channeling of combination therapy to high-risk patients, require further investigation. Clinicians should consider the risk-benefit of combination therapy when prescribing gabapentinoids concurrently with opioids.

Comparison of effectiveness and safety for low versus full dose of apixaban during extended phase oral anticoagulation in patients with venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The optimal dose of apixaban therapy to prevent asecondary venous thromboembolism (VTE) event remains unconfirmed. To investigate the effects of extended phase use of apixaban (2.5 vs. 5 mg twice daily) beyond 6 months of initial treatment on the risk of recurrent VTE and major bleeding events among patients with a history of VTE. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis of two large national insurance claims databases was conducted for patients diagnosed with VTE. Cox proportional hazard models after propensity score matching were used to compare the risk of recurrent VTE and major bleeding. RESULTS: There were no detected differences in recurrent VTE or major bleeding events between patients prescribed low versus full dose apixaban. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence that apixaban 2.5 mg twice daily is an alternative option for extended phase therapy for risk reduction of VTE recurrence compared to apixaban 5 mg twice daily.

The Impact of Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy on End-Stage Liver Disease Among Individuals with Chronic Hepatitis C and Substance Use Disorders.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Our aim was to evaluate the impact of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) on decompensated cirrhosis (DCC) and HCC in patients with chronic HCV and substance use disorder (SUD) compared with those without an SUD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This retrospective cohort study used the MarketScan database (2013-2018) to identify 29,228 patients with chronic HCV, where 22% (n = 6,385) had ≥1 SUD diagnosis. The inverse probability of treatment weighted multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare the risk of developing DCC and HCC. Among the those who were noncirrhotic, treatment reduced the DCC risk among SUD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.13; 95% CI, 0.06-0.30) and non-SUD (aHR 0.11; 95% CI, 0.07-0.18), whereas the risk for HCC was not reduced for the SUD group (aHR 0.91; 95% CI, 0.33-2.48). For those with cirrhosis, compared with patients who were untreated, treatment reduced the HCC risk among SUD (aHR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.13-0.88) and non-SUD (aHR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.25-0.65), whereas the risk for DCC was not reduced for the SUD group (aHR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.37-1.13). Among patients with cirrhosis who were untreated, the SUD group had a higher risk of DCC (aHR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.03-2.24) and HCC (aHR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.05-2.72) compared with non-SUD group. CONCLUSIONS: Among the HCV SUD group, DAA treatment reduced the risk of DCC but not HCC for those who were noncirrhotic, whereas DAA treatment reduced the risk of HCC but not DCC for those with cirrhosis. Among the nontreated, patients with an SUD had a significantly higher risk of DCC and HCC compared with those without an SUD. Thus, DAA treatment should be considered for all patients with HCV and an SUD while also addressing the SUD.

Clinical non-effectiveness of clopidogrel use for peripheral artery disease in patients with CYP2C19 polymorphisms: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: To conduct a systematic review to identify studies that assessed the association between CYP2C19 polymorphisms and clinical outcomes in peripheral artery disease (PAD) patients who took clopidogrel. METHODS: We systematically searched Ovid EMBASE, PubMed, and Web of Science from November 1997 (inception) to September 2020. We included observational studies evaluating how CYP2C19 polymorphism is associated with clopidogrel's effectiveness and safety among patients with PAD. We extracted relevant information details from eligible studies (e.g., study type, patient population, study outcomes). We used the Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies-of Interventions (ROBINS-I) Tool to assess the risk of bias for included observational studies. RESULTS: The outcomes of interest were the effectiveness and safety of clopidogrel. The effectiveness outcomes included clinical ineffectiveness (e.g., restenosis). The safety outcomes included bleeding and death related to the use of clopidogrel. We identified four observational studies with a sample size ranging from 50 to 278. Outcomes and comparison groups of the studies varied. Three studies (75%) had an overall low risk of bias. All included studies demonstrated that carrying CYP2C19 loss of function (LOF) alleles was significantly associated with reduced clinical effectiveness and safety of clopidogrel. CONCLUSIONS: Our systematic review showed an association between CYP2C19 LOF alleles and reduced functions of clopidogrel. The use of CYP2C19 testing in PAD patients prescribed clopidogrel may help improve the clinical outcomes. However, based on the limited evidence, there is a need for randomized clinical trials in PAD patients to test both the effectiveness and safety outcomes of clopidogrel.

Perioperative Use of Gabapentinoids and Risk for Postoperative Long-Term Opioid Use in Older Adults Undergoing Total Knee or Hip Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Gabapentinoids are recommended by guidelines as a component of multimodal analgesia to manage postoperative pain and reduce opioid use. It remains unknown whether perioperative use of gabapentinoids is associated with a reduced or increased risk of postoperative long-term opioid use (LTOU) after total knee or hip arthroplasty (TKA/THA). METHODS: Using Medicare claims data from 2011 to 2018, we identified fee-for-service beneficiaries aged ≥ 65 years who were hospitalized for a primary TKA/THA and had no LTOU before the surgery. Perioperative use of gabapentinoids was measured from 7 days preadmission through 7 days postdischarge. Patients were required to receive opioids during the perioperative period and were followed from day 7 postdischarge for 180 days to assess postoperative LTOU (ie, ≥90 consecutive days). A modified Poisson regression was used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of postoperative LTOU in patients with versus without perioperative use of gabapentinoids, adjusting for confounders through propensity score weighting. RESULTS: Of 52,788 eligible Medicare older beneficiaries (mean standard deviation [SD] age 72.7 [5.3]; 62.5% females; 89.7% White), 3,967 (7.5%) received gabapentinoids during the perioperative period. Postoperative LTOU was 3.8% in patients with and 4.0% in those without perioperative gabapentinoids. After adjusting for confounders, the risk of postoperative LTOU was similar comparing patients with versus without perioperative gabapentinoids (RR = 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.91-1.26, P = .408). Sensitivity and bias analyses yielded consistent results. CONCLUSION: Among older Medicare beneficiaries undergoing a primary TKA/THA, perioperative use of gabapentinoids was not associated with a reduced or increased risk for postoperative LTOU.

Predicting Mortality Risk After a Hospital or Emergency Department Visit for Nonfatal Opioid Overdose.

BACKGROUND: Survivors of opioid overdose have substantially increased mortality risk, although this risk is not evenly distributed across individuals. No study has focused on predicting an individual's risk of death after a nonfatal opioid overdose. OBJECTIVE: To predict risk of death after a nonfatal opioid overdose. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective cohort study included 9686 Pennsylvania Medicaid beneficiaries with an emergency department or inpatient claim for nonfatal opioid overdose in 2014-2016. The index date was the first overdose claim during this period. EXPOSURES, MAIN OUTCOME, AND MEASURES: Predictor candidates were measured in the 180 days before the index overdose. Primary outcome was 180-day all-cause mortality. Using a gradient boosting machine model, we classified beneficiaries into six subgroups according to their risk of mortality (< 25th percentile of the risk score, 25th to < 50th, 50th to < 75th, 75th to < 90th, 90th to < 98th, ≥ 98th). We then measured receipt of medication for opioid use disorder (OUD), risk mitigation interventions (e.g., prescriptions for naloxone), and prescription opioids filled in the 180 days after the index overdose, by risk subgroup. KEY RESULTS: Of eligible beneficiaries, 347 (3.6%) died within 180 days after the index overdose. The C-statistic of the mortality prediction model was 0.71. In the highest risk subgroup, the observed 180-day mortality rate was 20.3%, while in the lowest risk subgroup, it was 1.5%. Medication for OUD and risk mitigation interventions after overdose were more commonly seen in lower risk groups, while opioid prescriptions were more likely to be used in higher risk groups (both p trends < .001). CONCLUSIONS: A risk prediction model performed well for classifying mortality risk after a nonfatal opioid overdose. This prediction score can identify high-risk subgroups to target interventions to improve outcomes among overdose survivors.

Association Between Dual Trajectories of Opioid and Gabapentinoid Use and Healthcare Expenditures Among US Medicare Beneficiaries.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about relationships between opioid- and gabapentinoid-use patterns and healthcare expenditures that may be affected by pain management and risk of adverse outcomes. This study examined the association between patients' opioid and gabapentinoid prescription filling/refilling trajectories and direct medical expenditures in US Medicare. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included a 5% national sample (2011-2016) of fee-for-service beneficiaries with fibromyalgia, low back pain, neuropathy, or osteoarthritis newly initiating opioids or gabapentinoids. Using group-based multitrajectory modeling, this study identified patients' distinct opioid and gabapentinoid (OPI-GABA) dose and duration patterns, based on standardized daily doses, within a year of initiating opioids and/or gabapentinoids. Concurrent direct medical expenditures within the same year were estimated using inverse probability of treatment weighted multivariable generalized linear regression, adjusting for sociodemographic and health status factors. RESULTS: Among 67 827 eligible beneficiaries (mean age ± SD = 63.6 ± 14.8 years, female = 65.8%, white = 77.1%), 11 distinct trajectories were identified (3 opioid-only, 4 gabapentinoid-only, and 4 concurrent OPI-GABA trajectories). Compared with opioid-only early discontinuers ($13 830, 95% confidence interval = $13 643-14 019), gabapentinoid-only early discontinuers and consistent low-dose and moderate-dose gabapentinoid-only users were associated with 11% to 23% lower health expenditures (adjusted mean expenditure = $10 607-$11 713). Consistent low-dose opioid-only users, consistent high-dose opioid-only users, consistent low-dose OPI-GABA users, consistent low-dose opioid and high-dose gabapentinoid users, and consistent high-dose opioid and moderate-dose gabapentinoid users were associated with 14% to 106% higher healthcare expenditures (adjusted mean expenditure = $15 721-$28 464). CONCLUSIONS: Dose and duration patterns of concurrent OPI-GABA varied substantially among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries. Consistent opioid-only users and all concurrent OPI-GABA users were associated with higher healthcare expenditures compared to opioid-only discontinuers.

Associations Between the Specialty of Opioid Prescribers and Opioid Addiction, Misuse, and Overdose Outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between opioid prescriber specialty and patient likelihood of opioid use disorder (OUD), opioid misuse, and opioid overdose. DESIGN: Longitudinal retrospective study using Pennsylvania Medicaid data (2007-2015). METHODS: We constructed an incident cohort of 432,110 enrollees initiating prescription opioid use without a history of OUD or overdose six months before opioid initiation. We attributed patients to one of 10 specialties using the first opioid prescriber's specialty or, alternatively, the specialty of the dominant prescriber writing the majority of the patient's opioid prescriptions. We estimated adjusted rates for OUD, misuse, and overdose, adjusting for demographic variables and medical (including pain) and psychiatric comorbidities. RESULTS: The unadjusted incidence rates of OUD, misuse, and overdose were 7.13, 4.73, and 0.69 per 100,000 person-days, respectively. Patients initiating a new episode of opioid treatment with Pain Medicine/Anesthesiology (6.7 events, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.5 to 8.2) or Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation (PM&R; 6.1 events, 95% CI = 5.1 to 7.2) had higher adjusted rates for OUD per 100,000 person-days compared with Primary Care practitioners (PCPs; 4.4 events, 95% CI = 4.1 to 4.7). Patients with index prescriptions from Pain Medicine/Anesthesiology (15.9 events, 95% CI = 13.2 to 19.3) or PM&R (15.8 events, 95% CI = 13.5 to 18.4) had higher adjusted rates for misuse per 100,000 person-days compared with PCPs (9.6 events, 95% CI = 8.8 to 10.6). Findings were largely similar when patients were attributed to specialty based on dominant prescriber. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in opioid-related risks by specialty of opioid prescriber may arise from differences in patient risk factors, provider behavior, or both. Our findings inform targeting of opioid risk mitigation strategies to specific practitioner specialties.

Patterns of Opioid Administration Among Opioid-Naive Inpatients and Associations With Postdischarge Opioid Use: A Cohort Study.

Background: Patterns of inpatient opioid use and their associations with postdischarge opioid use are poorly understood. Objective: To measure patterns in timing, duration, and setting of opioid administration in opioid-naive hospitalized patients and to examine associations with postdischarge use. Design: Retrospective cohort study using electronic health record data from 2010 to 2014. Setting: 12 community and academic hospitals in Pennsylvania. Patients: 148 068 opioid-naive patients (191 249 admissions) with at least 1 outpatient encounter within 12 months before and after admission. Measurements: Number of days and patterns of inpatient opioid use; any outpatient use (self-report and/or prescription orders) 90 and 365 days after discharge. Results: Opioids were administered in 48% of admissions. Patients were given opioids for a mean of 67.9% (SD, 25.0%) of their stay. Location of administration of first opioid on admission, timing of last opioid before discharge, and receipt of nonopioid analgesics varied substantially. After adjustment for potential confounders, 5.9% of inpatients receiving opioids had outpatient use at 90 days compared with 3.0% of those without inpatient use (difference, 3.0 percentage points [95% CI, 2.8 to 3.2 percentage points]). Opioid use at 90 days was higher in inpatients receiving opioids less than 12 hours before discharge than in those with at least 24 opioid-free hours before discharge (7.5% vs. 3.9%; difference, 3.6 percentage points [CI, 3.3 to 3.9 percentage points]). Differences based on proportion of the stay with opioid use were modest (opioid use at 90 days was 6.4% and 5.4%, respectively, for patients with opioid use for ≥75% vs. ≤25% of their stay; difference, 1.0 percentage point [CI, 0.4 to 1.5 percentage points]). Associations were similar for opioid use 365 days after discharge. Limitation: Potential unmeasured confounders related to opioid use. Conclusion: This study found high rates of opioid administration to opioid-naive inpatients and associations between specific patterns of inpatient use and risk for long-term use after discharge. Primary Funding Source: UPMC Health System and University of Pittsburgh.

Extent and Predictors of Potentially Inappropriate Antidepressant Use Among Older Adults With Dementia and Major Depressive Disorder.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the extent and identify predictors of potentially inappropriate antidepressant use among older adults with dementia and newly diagnosed major depressive disorders (MDD). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included older adults (aged ≥65 years) with dementia and newly diagnosed MDD using Medicare 5% sample claims data (2012-2013). Based on Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set guidelines, intake period for new antidepressant medication use was from May 1, 2012, through April 30, 2013. Index prescription start date was the first date of antidepressant prescription claim during the intake period. Dependent variable of this study was potentially inappropriate antidepressant use as defined by the Beers Criteria and the Screening Tool of Older Persons' potentially inappropriate Prescriptions criteria. The authors conducted multiple logistic regression analysis to identify individual-level predictors of potentially inappropriate antidepressant use. RESULTS: The authors' final study sample consisted of 7,625 older adults with dementia and newly diagnosed MDD, among which 7.59% (N = 579) initiated treatment with a potentially inappropriate antidepressant. Paroxetine (N = 394) was the most commonly initiated potentially inappropriate antidepressant followed by amitriptyline (N = 104), nortriptyline (N = 35), and doxepin (N = 32). Initiation of a potentially inappropriate antidepressant was associated with age and baseline use of anxiolytic medications. CONCLUSION: More than 7% of older adults in the study sample initiated a potentially inappropriate antidepressant, and the authors identified a few individual-level factors significantly associated with it. Appropriately tailored interventions to address modifiable and nonmodifiable factors significantly associated with potentially inappropriate antidepressant prescribing are required to minimize risks in this vulnerable population.

Adherence trajectories of buprenorphine therapy among pregnant women in a large state Medicaid program in the United States.

PURPOSE: Little is known about the longitudinal patterns of buprenorphine adherence among pregnant women with opioid use disorder, especially when late initiation, nonadherence, or early discontinuation of buprenorphine during pregnancy may increase the risk of adverse outcomes. We aimed to identify distinct trajectories of buprenorphine use during pregnancy, and factors associated with these trajectories in Medicaid-enrolled pregnant women. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study included 2361 Pennsylvania Medicaid enrollees aged 15 to 46 having buprenorphine therapy during pregnancy and a live birth between 2008 and 2015. We used group-based trajectory models to identify buprenorphine use patterns in the 40 weeks prior to delivery and 12 weeks postdelivery. Multivariable multinomial logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with specific trajectories. RESULTS: Six distinct trajectories were identified. Four groups initiated buprenorphine during the first trimester of the pregnancy (early initiators): 31.6% with persistently high adherence, 15.1% with moderate-to-high adherence, 10.5% with declining adherence, and 16.7% with early discontinuation. Two groups did not initiate buprenorphine until midsecond or third trimester (late initiators): 13.5% had moderate-to-high adherence and 12.6% had low-to-moderate adherence. Factors significantly associated with late initiation and discontinuation were younger age, non-white race, residents of rural counties, fewer outpatient visits, more frequent emergency department visits and hospitalizations, and lower buprenorphine daily dose. CONCLUSIONS: Six buprenorphine treatment trajectories during pregnancy were identified in this population-based Medicaid cohort, with 25% of women initiating buprenorphine late during pregnancy. Understanding trajectories of buprenorphine use and factors associated with discontinuation/nonadherence may guide integration of behavioral treatment with obstetrical/gynecological care to improve buprenorphine treatment during pregnancy.